Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We are still on track for a D 3.5 Election but things can change in 500 days

WI, PA and NH Senate goes D

GA goes R and replaced by OH or NC

Approval with Biden at 53% shows that, it's won't be a landslide


Biden is not at 59% with Covid cases rising

[pbrower2a]

We are still on track for a D 3.5 Election but things can change in 500 days

WI, PA and NH Senate goes D

GA goes R and replaced by OH or NC

Approval with Biden at 53% shows that, it's won't be a landslide


Biden is not at 59% with Covid cases rising

COVID-19 cases seem to be rising most where Republicans dominate political life and have resisted lockdowns.

Add about 2% to approval and you get what one can expect for an incumbent seeking re-election if such is on or near election day.

...We do not know who the Republican nominee will be in 2024. Donald Trump is still tainted, and any Republican who fails to distance himself from Trump will have some images of ugly incidents from you-know-when on attack ads.

Barring such a calamity as a war that goes badly for America or an economic meltdown on the scale of at least 2007-2009, Joe Biden gets re-elected. Polarized as America has been, the closest thing to a landslide that he could get is  about 54-45, which is just bigger than what Obama got in 2008 or the elder Bush got in 1988 in popular vote.

Republicans are not in a position in which to tank the economy now and won't be unless they get both Houses of Congress -- and that would be risky on their part.  As America gets out of the peril of COVID-19 (more people are inoculated fully against it than have ever contracted it, which is not so much the beginning of the end as the end of the beginning) it will have an economic recovery comparable to a post-war recovery. We will be in the late 1940's with more modern technology and some social reforms unimaginable in the late 1940's.

Good times are good for re-election; just think of Harry Truman in 1948.  Republicans unleashed the political venom against him, and he still won. Contrary to myth and an infamously-wrong headline on the Chicago Tribune,  Dewey didn't even come close, and Truman could win without the support of a Solid South.

 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That's why I said a lot can change in 500 days it won't be an D plus 8 but D 3 or 5 Environment is possible

D's must perform marginally better than 3.1 percent in order to keep the House

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1378368158617247747

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

COVID-19 cases seem to be rising most where Republicans dominate political life and have resisted lockdowns.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

[It’s so Joever]

I can’t believe I am going to argue for the optimistic side for once, but what the “poster” above me stated is lolworthy (as is the CNN article)

The article makes the claim generic ballot should be used to gauge where voters are, and fine, but then it goes on to extrapolate data by comparing very few, more R-leaning (read:accurate) polls to a bunch of D biased polls pre November. It’s just not the same.

What I always do is I look at how the individual pollster shifts are changing.

Let’s look at the four main polls done in March for the generic ballot according to 538.
These are Echelon, GQR, Leger, and McLaughlin. Now let’s compare not to the presidential polls from last year, but to the exact same generic ballot polls done by the same pollsters from 2020.

Echelon Mar 2021: D+2 avg.
Echelon Oct 2020: D+4 avg.
Echelon Sep 2020: D+5 avg.

Actual 2020 President: D+4 (House was D+3)

McLaughlin Mar 2021: D+0
McLaughlin Sep 2020: D+2

Unfortunately neither GQR nor Lolger had generic ballot polls in the 538 section linked by the CNN article, so we really have a tiny sample size. However, even with these very incomplete results, it looks as if the polls since 2020 have shifted 2 points right. What this would mean is a D+1 year for the House.
That would be enough for us to lose (unless by some miracle HR1 passes) the house but it would not be a bloodbath by any means. The GOP would gain back low hanging fruit and some redistricted seats and that alone would suffice for a slimish (but larger than ours now) majority.

Now that could change, but the current situation is not what a certain poster wants to paint it as.


CNN clearly wrote this article to be sensationalist and to scare their brunch liberal base, and truth be told fine. Fear gets people to vote.
But Atlas, be better, and don’t ever listen to anything that comes from the poster above.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Don't donate to any D like Ryan, Jackson due to fact we need to see a Mason Dixon poll in the last half of 2022 to verify they are gonna win

We were fooled last time with so many seats that have a Supermajority Senate. MT, KS, IA, ME, NC etc and Landslide Lyndon said there was gonna be a Supermajority he is nowhere to be found, naturally or he is under a different user name

But, in a 3.1 Environment, you can donate to WI, PA and NH Ds

But D's have to perform marginally better than last time to ensure a D controlled H. D+4 which will give us 55 seats

As of now, it's anyones guest

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I never seen a non rosey scenario for Ds on pbower2A Approvals.

2016 he was wrong, 2020 was definitely wrong with high Approvals in MT that was the biggy right there and TX

Now these Approvals, he should come down on his Approvals, they aren't matching Election outcomes

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I never seen a non rosey scenario for Ds on pbower2A Approvals.

2016 he was wrong, 2020 was definitely wrong with high Approvals in MT that was the biggy right there and TX

Now these Approvals, he should come down on his Approvals, they aren't matching Election outcomes

Go off

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I never seen a non rosey scenario for Ds on pbower2A Approvals.

2016 he was wrong, 2020 was definitely wrong with high Approvals in MT that was the biggy right there and TX

Now these Approvals, he should come down on his Approvals, they aren't matching Election outcomes

Go off

Go off, the Approvals aren't 59 it's 53, he has IA and TX positive it's not

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I never seen a non rosey scenario for Ds on pbower2A Approvals.

2016 he was wrong, 2020 was definitely wrong with high Approvals in MT that was the biggy right there and TX

Now these Approvals, he should come down on his Approvals, they aren't matching Election outcomes

Go off

I also remember people going on the 2024 Election and say FL is a solid R state and no stopping DeSantis

We are gonna have a 3.1 PVI Election but Biden hasn't done enough to improve on Covid in order to have a wave insurence Election that's why Cook and Sabato ratings are the way they are stuck at a 3.1 Election.

Things can change next yr

[WD]

I never seen a non rosey scenario for Ds on pbower2A Approvals.

2016 he was wrong, 2020 was definitely wrong with high Approvals in MT that was the biggy right there and TX

Now these Approvals, he should come down on his Approvals, they aren't matching Election outcomes

Go off

Go off, the Approvals aren't 59 it's 53, he has IA and TX positive it's not

Go off, King

[pbrower2a]

I never seen a non rosey scenario for Ds on pbower2A Approvals.

2016 he was wrong, 2020 was definitely wrong with high Approvals in MT that was the biggy right there and TX

Now these Approvals, he should come down on his Approvals, they aren't matching Election outcomes

Trump was doing much campaigning in person and Biden was doing little. Trump ended up with a huge advantage among late (basically Election-Day) voters. Democrats did not do their usual calls to voters to give rides to the polls. Democrats depended upon early votes, which was safest for everyone. I have canvassed in every election year beginning in 2008... except 2020.

Trump and the GOP got a late surge in electoral results. That happens when one side campaigns with hands tied behind its back. Trump has less regard for the safety of his supporters from COVID-19.  He came close to winning, but he still fell short.

So we all know what to expect in 2022 based on the patterns of midterm elections. All midterms since 2002 have resulted in losses for the Party in the White House, at least in the House of Representatives. Usually the party that won the Presidential election has two things going against it:

1. Presidential elections are gain elections for the Presidential Party that won. When the Presidential coat-tails operate, the President's Party brings in some new Representatives -- some of them weak. The weakest of those, or the ones with shakiest wins in a wave election, are the most vulnerable in the midterm.  (The oddity is that the Democrats actually lost seats in the House in 2020 despite winning the Presidency, so that may not work so well in 2022 for Republicans as usual).

2. Typically the President tries to pass the most popular segment of his agenda early. That is often a repudiation of the least-attractive aspects of his predecessor's legacy. Once that is over come activities much more controversial, and no President can ignore that. Maybe the contradictions in the campaign promises work against each other. Maybe things don't work as well as they might.

I look at 1994, 2010, and 2014 and I see Republicans' front groups doing much the same in 2022 -- well-funded smear campaigns against anyone who 'fails' to believe that pure plutocracy in which workers are responsible to rapacious plutocrats who owe workers nothing. (The front groups did the dirty work, and the Republican nominees got to do plain-folk campaigns). I see no evidence that such will not be successful again. If you are a liberal and can't understand why Wisconsin has Ron Johnson as a Senator and not Russ Feingold... Ron Johnson is a pliant stooge for the well-heeled heels of America, and that is what the heels want. It may be an exaggeration to say that America's economic elites want an America in which everyone not themselves struggles to prove themselves worthy of bare survival, but that is what one gets with people who believe the Gospel of Ayn Rand.

Are Americans wiser this time? Maybe, and maybe not. 

Also potentially working against Republicans: even if Donald Trump barely lost in 2020 his behavior after the election is despicable in the extreme. At least in 2022 Donald Trump will be the face of the Republican Party. Republicans were able to keep Dubya out of the 2010 and 2014 midterm campaigns, which was possible and wise. If I am one of those heels who believes that "he who owns the gold makes the rules, lest everything fall apart", then I don't want people associating my Party so much Donald Trump and his personal depravity as I want my Party associated with untrammeled greed.
 
OK, the D wave in the House of 2018 got culled some in 2020. There might not be so many weak incumbents in the Democratic majority in the House in 2022 as in 2020.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Also Rahm Emmanuel was key in D's locking in 257 seats in 2008, and he resigned and became a bad mayor in Chicago, after D's los t 53 seats in the House, in 2010 due to parking meters

The DCCC campaign chairmen can't spearhead what Emmanuel did with Obama.  

But, DeSantis and Mandel are weak candidates and we may win NC so D's chances of maintaining both H with 55 seats are good

FL maybe in play due today Gaetz story and Rs still think DeSANTIS is not endangered

[pbrower2a]

So how can 2022 be different from the usual midterm? It is highly unlikely that President Biden will bumble his way into a calamity just in time to exploit some patriotic sentiment as  Dubya did in 2002, when Republicans actually won House and Senate seats.

1, Here's something to consider: we still have the lingering shadow of Donald Trump, beloved by his base yet loathed by a majority. The Capitol Putsch will have consequences, and anyone who didn't distance himself quickly from the Putsch will have his words or even inaction used against him in the court of public opinion. That might not hurt Republicans in ultra-safe seats, but any connection to Donald Trump will be suspect and it might be 'good' for defeat.   

2. Republicans put huge resources into defeating incumbent Democrats in 2020 and had some successes. They did better than anyone could have expected in 2020 in cutting the House margin for Democrats and keeping Democrats from getting a majority in the Senate for as long as possible.

The biggest gain in House seats for Republicans was in Florida, where the GOP ran a smear campaign against all Democrats in an effort (which succeeded, largely) in connecting them ideologically with Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez.  That might not be so easy in 2022. Trump tried something that many dictators succeed at, which is nullifying an election that doesn't go the way that that leader wants it to go.   

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The same Rs that want D's defeated just got stimulus checks, I don't see how anyone can criticize the Ds after 2K and 300 more in stimulus checks, you can't have your cake and eat it to

It's a PVI 3.1 D Election but the Ds want it to be more to ensure we hold the H which can become 3-5 percent

FL has the Gaetz scandal

NC is a purple state

OH has Mandel and IA is IA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well NH and GA looks gone now that Sununu is leading in another NH poll

Like it or not Rs may very well pull it off, where is landslide Lyndon or wbrooks now

[Bootes Void]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1378368158617247747

The generic ballots are D+4 as mentioned in the article which currently could be enough to hold the house. Although things will change with redistricting and get more unfavourable as time goes on.

[pbrower2a]

Well NH and GA looks gone now that Sununu is leading in another NH poll

Like it or not Rs may very well pull it off, where is landslide Lyndon or wbrooks now

New Hampshire is typically close in statewide elections. 2008 and 2020 were not close for the Presidency -- well, it was the economy in 2008, and Trump was a steaming pile to NH voters in 2016.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well NH and GA looks gone now that Sununu is leading in another NH poll

Like it or not Rs may very well pull it off, where is landslide Lyndon or wbrooks now

New Hampshire is typically close in statewide elections. 2008 and 2020 were not close for the Presidency -- well, it was the economy in 2008, and Trump was a steaming pile to NH voters in 2016.

Dems may lose a seat in 2022 but GA is less valuable than NH due to blue wall

[GeorgiaModerate]

IBD/TIPP (monthly), March 31-April 3, 1436 adults

Approve 53 (nc)
Disapprove 33 (+3)

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1378368158617247747

The generic ballots are D+4 as mentioned in the article which currently could be enough to hold the house. Although things will change with redistricting and get more unfavourable as time goes on.

What else is new? The cyclical voting patterns in our country will undermine progress once again. It's always going to happen.

[Lief 🗽]

IBD/TIPP (monthly), March 31-April 3, 1436 adults

Approve 53 (nc)
Disapprove 33 (+3)

Incredible numbers from the GOLD STANDARD national poll.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1378368158617247747

The generic ballots are D+4 as mentioned in the article which currently could be enough to hold the house. Although things will change with redistricting and get more unfavourable as time goes on.

What else is new? The cyclical voting patterns in our country will undermine progress once again. It's always going to happen.

Not really, the reason why Rs are putting voting suppression laws on ballot and it might hurt us in FL and GA, but still have OH, NC as wave insurence is VBM

The Rs thought they had Newsom, but because we had a huge turnout in District 30 thru VBM, the polls are showing a landslide for Newsom, They are gonna lose VA, NJ Elections this year too

Sake day voting is the only way Rs can survives and it's being taken away in favor of VBM

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

IBD/TIPP (monthly), March 31-April 3, 1436 adults

Approve 53 (nc)
Disapprove 33 (+3)

Incredible numbers from the GOLD STANDARD national poll.

Uncle Joe needs to start a big Amtrak train tour across America to tell the country that loves him that he need a Congress who can work with him, not against him.