Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[wbrocks67]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), March 24-25, 1005 adults

Approve 53 (-6)
Disapprove 41 (+6)

This poll has been very bouncy lately.  Last four weeks:

3/4: 58/35
3/11: 54/39
3/18: 59/35
3/25: 53/41

This is also why people feel they can't trust polls. They're too allover the place from week to week with totally different samples.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Popularity of Biden surges after 1400 even red states like OH, IA, NC and FL like them that's why Acton and FL are competetive and they supposed to be slam dunks for Rs

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

538 updated their pollsters' rating, and according to it Rasmussen is as good as CNN, in fact slightly better

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

Top 15 by Predictive Power >






https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1375095262516027392

[pbrower2a]

What most decides the accuracy of polling as a predictor is the appropriateness of the model for turnout.Democrats usually have last-hours GOTV drives that consolidate the vote. That obviously did not happen in 2020 due to COVID-19. That won't be relevant in 2022, when Democratic voters are more likely to get complacent about electoral results (the midterm effect). All midterm elections have gone badly for the party that holds the Presidency beginning in 2002, and there is no cause to believe that the fifth time will be the charm.

OK, something is very different this time. One of the right-wing shock-jocks who got a Medal of Freedom for "excellence in broadcasting" will no longer be around to smear people to the left of Augusto Pinochet. The messy situation on January 6, 2021 isn't likely to look any better in eighteen months. Several Republican Senators are retiring with no hints on whether they have understudies groomed to take over for them.

No two elections are exactly alike. How much conventional wisdom will be wrong in 2022?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There is some buyers remorse in the part of Electing Biden due to the continued outbreak of Covid but as long as he keeps extending Stimulus, which includes 1400 and Unemployment it makes people feel.better

But, Biden is going to Infrastructure spending, where 700K people just filed Unemployment and he acts like there won't be another Stimulus bill since he passed the 1.9 T.  

That's why Rs still have a chance, a small one to take over Congress

There needs to be more stimulus spending instead of an infrastructure project, they should be working on Appropriations Bill

[jbander]

Biden doesn't give a dam what the hate party says about him nor do I , they lost their voice in this country when they tried to destroy it to force in Trump as this countries first dictator. Whats left of this hate group has to be disposed of and real conservatives have to put together a voice to represent their position but this hate group they have now, has to go.

[Inmate Trump]

Biden doesn't give a dam what the hate party says about him nor do I , they lost their voice in this country when they tried to destroy it to force in Trump as this countries first dictator. Whats left of this hate group has to be disposed of and real conservatives have to put together a voice to represent their position but this hate group they have now, has to go.

Exactly.

The current Republican Party is a domestic terrorist organization and I genuinely believe that. They are a party of traitors.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1376273250301403140

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/MysteryPollster/status/1376529419871879169

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Wait until the Fall when Unemployment has to renewed, he is getting ready to spend 3T on an infrastructure bill, that isn't needed right now and 700K people just filed for Unemployment

Where is the blue ribbon Commission on Jan 6yh Pelosi you promised us we have heard nothing, what happened to Trump being Prosecuted we have heard nothing

The Election is 500 days, I am not saying that D's won't win, there is small chance that a rosey map is not inevitable

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The battleground has always been WI, PA and MI, wave insurence seats are not inevitable and it's a chance that D's might get to 51 Sen seats short of the 52 seats that are required to break Filibuster, with a narrow Majority in the House

Due to buyers remorse that Covid isn't over with, in the South, it was always that chance

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

https://twitter.com/MysteryPollster/status/1376529419871879169

The level is 53%, btw.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We already know it's not that much above 50, the Ds are fulfilling alot of what they set out to do about the blue ribbon commission and Prosecution of Trump, it's not 60%

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/MysteryPollster/status/1376529419871879169

The level is 53%, btw.

But it is not his "highest"?

According to 538, he was at 62% in YouGov MAR. 10-13 (an hit 60+% couple of times before that).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I never got excited over an infrastructure bill, Obama was supposed to build Speed rails in 2014/ never happened, Politicians must realize pet projects are gonna have to wait until after Covid due to Unemployment which is now a UBI program due to fact most people are on extended benefits not 1 yr base

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/MysteryPollster/status/1376529419871879169

The level is 53%, btw.

But it is not his "highest"?

According to 538, he was at 62% in YouGov MAR. 10-13 (an hit 60+% couple of times before that).

YouGov/Yahoo =/= YouGov =/= YouGov/Economist

[pbrower2a]

One state, but it is electorally huge as it is near the national average and will be an absolute must-win for any Republican nominee for President. North Carolina, Meredith.

  Political Leaders
Approval of President
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?
Response Number Percentage
Strongly approve 229 30.5
Approve 185 25
Disapprove 82 11.5
Somewhat disapprove 168 28.0
Don’t know/refused to
answer
35 5.0
N=699

Approval of Governor
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Roy Cooper is handling his job as
governor?
Response Number Percentage
Strongly approve 188 24.8
Approve 212 27.3
Disapprove 121 19.6
Somewhat disapprove 130 21.4
Don’t know/refused to
answer
48 6.9
N=699

Roy Cooper is the incumbent Democrat. He is in a strong position.

Now, partisan identification, and it does not look good for the GOP in North Carolina:

Political Party

What political party do you most identify with?
Response Number Percentage
Democratic 297 42.5
Republican 212 30.3
Other 33 4.7
Unaffiliated 147 21
Refused/No answer 10 1.4
N=699

https://www.meredith.edu/assets/images/content/Meredith_Poll_Report_Spring_2021_final.pdf

Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

50% green shade: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+


It is approval ratings, and not favorability ratings. Favorability ratings are relevant when they are blatant  (as in states that are not close and usually do not get polled, like New York Rhode Island or Oklahoma) because the states rarely decide an election, but they always must defer to approval. Would I use a favorability rating for Illinois? Sure. Wisconsin? Absolutely not.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I said in a previous post, D's are gonna resurrect the freiwall, but they making a mistake not going after Trump and a blue ribbon commission on Insurrectionists, they are ceding that ground to the Rs, it's not over yet 2022/ small chance that Rs can win and it's not gonna take much to flip the House, Approvals aren't gonna last forever

They haven't had any hearings on the blue ribbon Commission on Insurrectionists or we haven't heard anything from Garland about Prosecuting Trump and he said he was going to

[It’s so Joever]

One state, but it is electorally huge as it is near the national average and will be an absolute must-win for any Republican nominee for President. North Carolina, Meredith.

  Political Leaders
Approval of President
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?
Response Number Percentage
Strongly approve 229 30.5
Approve 185 25
Disapprove 82 11.5
Somewhat disapprove 168 28.0
Don’t know/refused to
answer
35 5.0
N=699

Approval of Governor
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Roy Cooper is handling his job as
governor?
Response Number Percentage
Strongly approve 188 24.8
Approve 212 27.3
Disapprove 121 19.6
Somewhat disapprove 130 21.4
Don’t know/refused to
answer
48 6.9
N=699

Roy Cooper is the incumbent Democrat. He is in a strong position.

Now, partisan identification, and it does not look good for the GOP in North Carolina:

Political Party

What political party do you most identify with?
Response Number Percentage
Democratic 297 42.5
Republican 212 30.3
Other 33 4.7
Unaffiliated 147 21
Refused/No answer 10 1.4
N=699

https://www.meredith.edu/assets/images/content/Meredith_Poll_Report_Spring_2021_final.pdf

Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

50% green shade: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+


It is approval ratings, and not favorability ratings. Favorability ratings are relevant when they are blatant  (as in states that are not close and usually do not get polled, like New York Rhode Island or Oklahoma) because the states rarely decide an election, but they always must defer to approval. Would I use a favorability rating for Illinois? Sure. Wisconsin? Absolutely not.

Remember when Roy Cooper was supposed to win in a landslide in 2020 according to polling?
I do.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

These Approvals are too rosey right now.

WI, PA, NH net positive

GA, NC, FL, TX arent bright red, IA is definitely not light pink, D's have a small chance in IA

[pbrower2a]

These Approvals are too rosey right now.

WI, PA, NH net positive

GA, NC, FL, TX arent bright red, IA is definitely not light pink, D's have a small chance in IA

Can you accept that at this point approval is a measurement of performance and achievement while dodging offense to political sensibilities? President Biden is doing far better at that than Donald Trump did at this time.

The Texas poll is by a 1% margin. I find the Georgia result hard to believe, but somehow I expect new polling soon in the wake of some provocative legislation by Republican figures in Georgia.

The terracing of results is not how I have things as an election is nigh; I usually have three categories (bare, weak, and strong) with ties. Much will change between now and November 2024. At a certain point I see no practical difference between a politician being up by 10% in a matchup and 30%  because the electoral result will be the same (except in Maine and Nebraska due to the votes by district). I see a much bigger difference between a 2% and a 3% edge in a matchup or a gap in approval than between 7% and 12%, let alone between 15% and 45%.       

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Fine a 2.5 D slide is probably realistic or D+3 in Senate and narrow House majority but a D+5 or 8 is probably unrealistic at this time due to Covid is choking the Economy

[pbrower2a]

Fine a 2.5 D slide is probably realistic or D+3 in Senate and narrow House majority but a D+5 or 8 is probably unrealistic at this time due to Covid is choking the Economy

Approval polls are predictors of how an incumbent would do if up for election shortly.

Excerpted from my material on another thread (with some modifications, some of them snark):

Some things will not change, such as elections already done. Beginning in 2000 we have had six Presidential elections, only one of them arguably a landslide (2008).

 

Margin

Blue for Trump, Red for Biden

10-15% saturation 8
8-10% saturation 6
5-8% saturation 5
1-3% saturation 4
under 1% saturation 2

Gray... completely out of contest, and you know how those states and districts are oriented.

I am guessing, putting the wayward Second Congressional Districts of Maine and Nebraska in the middle category.

Fully thirty-one states were decided by 15% or more in 2020!  It is possible to say that the Trump Administration flooded some farm states with farm subsidies to distract voters in those states from the damage that his trade war with China caused.

(If you think that any state in gray will switch affiliation from 2020 to 2024 and you don't have a convincing story, then the local sheriff might be interested in finding your supplier).   

 How the states have voted beginning in 2000:

all six for the Republican
5 R, 1 D
4 R, 2D  
(white - 3R, 1D)
4 D, 2 R
5 D, 1 R
all six for the Democrat

That is six elections and the biggest changes since then have been

(1) that several states that once favored Democrats in Democratic wins and that even voted twice for Bill Clinton in the 1990's have swung completely to the GOP and haven't gotten close
(2) the West Coast went from the fringe of competitiveness for Republicans to out of reach for them
(3) Virginia went from the sort of state that never voted for a Democrat except in a landslide (from 1952 to 2004 it had gone D only for LBJ in 1964) to strongly D; New Mexico went from shaky D to strong D; Colorado went from iffy in D landslides to solid D.
(4) the fast-growing Mexican-American vote in the southwestern United States is making Arizona and even Texas shaky for Republican nominees for President.
(5) The Republican Party has lost its appeal to the educated part of the urban middle class.

Not shown on this map: the urban-suburban difference in politics is becoming a triviality as suburban areas lose their old rural character (white populations, low density and relatively recent infrastructure that has low costs of maintenance) and become more urban (less white, higher density as apartment complexes replace the 70-year-old 'starter homes' of WWII veterans, and obsolete infrastructure in need of costly repairs or rebuilding).

If you want to consider the 1990's, in case anyone has any idea that states that went for Bill Clinton, often solidly, in the 1990's, could imaginably go back to the Democrats... I don't see that happening. Clinton won Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Tennessee, and West Virginia twice, and those look like the last times that those states will ever vote for a Democratic nominee for president for a very long time.  Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, and Montana went for Clinton once in the 1990's. Unless Texas goes for the Democrat in 2024, just about any election of 2024 unless an overwhelming landslide will look much like one of the Presidential elections from 2000 to 2020. I cannot say which one is most likely to be closest to that of 2024; it could be anything from 2004 (bare R majorities in the popular vote and Electoral College) to 2008 (almost a landslide). If you expect anything else now based upon political realities already documented, then the local sheriff wants to know what you are on and who is your supplier. 

all six for the Republican
all six for the Republican, but twice for Clinton in the 1990's
all six for the Republican, but once for Clinton in the 1990's
5 R, 1 D
4 R, 2D  
(white - 3R, 1D)
4 D, 2 R
5 D, 1 R
all six for the Democrat

The electoral map has changed little from 2000, with the election mist uncharacteristic of those elections from 2000 to w020 being the near-landslide win by Obama

Clinton split in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, and Montana... and any of those could be D wins in 2024 except perhaps Montana -- and Colorado looks like a sure thing in anything other than the wake of a disaster by Biden. Biden or Harris has a better chance of winning Texas, which has not voted for a Republican nominee for President since 1976 than of any state in green.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Wait until the Fall when Unemployment has to renewed, he is getting ready to spend 3T on an infrastructure bill, that isn't needed right now and 700K people just filed for Unemployment

Where is the blue ribbon Commission on Jan 6yh Pelosi you promised us we have heard nothing, what happened to Trump being Prosecuted we have heard nothing

The Election is 500 days, I am not saying that D's won't win, there is small chance that a rosey map is not inevitable

Getting a big infrastructure bill is a fantastic way to boost the economy and put people back to work in high paying good jobs. Trump had 4 years to get it done on infrastructure, and failed.

[It’s so Joever]

Do y’all not understand Biden could cure cancer, make America the best place to live in the World, and build a giant railway that serves the coasts and still would lose in the midterms. It’s not about policy, Americans are too stupid for that. Heck, Americans are too stupid to even vote based on their pocketbook.