Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I said many times in this thread show us the polls don't just show us Biden Approvals show us the Senate numbers, in PA, NH, GA, OH, FL and NC and Gov races in KS and GA and AZ that will equate these good 60 percent

We were fooled by QU plus 14 RV numbers last time

Pollsters are selectively giving us polls again

[OneJ]

Pew Research, April 5-11, 5109 adults (change from early March)

Approve 59 (+5)
Disapprove 39 (-3)

Maybe you should take a look at the partisan composition of their sample :

That partisan gap is pretty similar to the gap that Gallup found just last week actually.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/343976/quarterly-gap-party-affiliation-largest-2012.aspx

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

NPR/Marist, April 7-13, 1266 adults including 1066 RV (1-month change)

Adults:

Approve 53 (+4)
Disapprove 39 (-3)

Strongly approve 25 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 29 (-1)

RV:

Approve 52 (+4)
Disapprove 41 (-2)

Strongly approve 26 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 31 (nc)

So he’s still probably moderately popular rather than controversial or very popular.

Biden is the exact opposite of Trump. Trump was moderately unpopular, but his approval was never in the ditch like Nixon or George W. Bush in his second term.

[President Johnson]

NPR/Marist, April 7-13, 1266 adults including 1066 RV (1-month change)

Adults:

Approve 53 (+4)
Disapprove 39 (-3)

Strongly approve 25 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 29 (-1)

RV:

Approve 52 (+4)
Disapprove 41 (-2)

Strongly approve 26 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 31 (nc)

So he’s still probably moderately popular rather than controversial or very popular.

Biden is the exact opposite of Trump. Trump was moderately unpopular, but his approval was never in the ditch like Nixon or George W. Bush in his second term.

Yes, given how polarized the country is and that Joe Biden as a straight white guy doesn't inflame so much passion/hate against him like Obama did or Hillary would have, it's reasonable to assume his approval ratings will remain pretty stable throughout his term, mainly between high 40s and mid 50s. That should put him on a good track for winning reelection. Of course unless a major crisis emerges that he bungles.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden isn't at 59% we were told Biden plus 14 numbers in 2020, there is Buyers remorse in the S towards his amnesty program. The only states he has increased support in are the blue wall states. That's why the Biden 14 numbers last time were inflated

NY, Chicago, LA and SF are the main metros that inflate Biden numbers

[pbrower2a]

Also Philadelphia, Detroit, Atlanta, Phoenix, and Milwaukee, which was essential to Biden winning their states. See also Boston , the Twin Cities, greater Dee Cee... an America as rural as America was even in the 1950's might have voted for Trump.   

[Biden his time]

Biden Approval by State (APRIL 16, 2021)

State Average Net Approvals:

NOTES: The date shown is the final date of polling if available, and if not available, then the date of being published is used. All polls taken within the last six months are listed (if one pollster has taken more than one poll of a particular state within the last six months, then only the most recent poll from that pollster is listed). A state's total net approval rating is taken by taking a simple average of all listed polls' results. Only presidential approval or job approval is used. States are listed in alphabetical order. Only polls conducted after January 06 are included.

ARIZONA: +16.0%

• OH Predictive Insights (Mar. 12): Biden+16% (55% Approve, 39% Disapprove)

CALIFORNIA: +22.0%

• Public Policy Institute of California (Mar. 23): Biden+22% (60% Approve, 38% Disapprove)

FLORIDA: -0.5%

• Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy (Mar. 10): Biden-2% (47% Approve, 49% Disapprove)
• Cygnal (Apr. 11): Biden+1.0% (49.4% Approve, 48.4% Disapprove)

IOWA: +3.0%

• Des Moines Register with Selzer (Mar. 10): Biden+3% (47% Approve, 44% Disapprove)

KENTUCKY: -10.0%

• Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy (Feb. 04): Biden-10% (39% Approve, 49% Disapprove)

MASSACHUSETTS: +28.0%

• University of Massachusetts - Amherst (Mar. 09): Biden+28% (62% Approve, 34% Disapprove)

MICHIGAN: +9.0%

• Public Policy Polling (Feb. 03): Biden+9% (53% Approve, 44% Disapprove)
• Marketing Resource Group (Mar. 18): Biden+9% (50% Approve, 41% Disapprove)

MISSISSIPPI: -21.0%

• Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy (Feb. 05): Biden-21% (35% Approve, 56% Disapprove)

NEVADA: +7.0%

• WPA Intelligence (Mar. 01): Biden+7% (47% Approve, 40% Disapprove)

NEW HAMPSHIRE: +7.5%

• St. Anselm College (Feb. 06): Biden+7% (53% Approve, 46% Disapprove)
• University of New Hampshire (Mar. 22): Biden+8% (53% Approve, 45% Disapprove)

NEW JERSEY: +16.0%

• Stockton University (Mar. 22): Biden+16% (53% Approve, 37% Disapprove)

NORTH CAROLINA: +14.3%

• Elon University (Jan. 31): Biden+16% (49% Approve, 33% Disapprove)
• HighPoint University (Feb. 26): Biden+11% (48% Approve, 37% Disapprove)
• Meredith College (Mar. 15): Biden+16% (55.5% Approve, 39.5% Disapprove)

OKLAHOMA: -15.4%

• Amber Integrated (Mar. 28): Biden-15.4% (37.6% Approve, 53.0% Disapprove)

OREGON: +19.0%

• DHM Research (Mar. 14): Biden+19% (55% Approve, 36% Disapprove)

TEXAS: +1.0%

• University of Texas (Feb. 18): Biden+1% (45% Approve, 44% Disapprove)

SOUTH DAKOTA: -10.0%

• Spry Strategies (Feb. 03): Biden-10.0% (42.4% Approve, 52.4% Disapprove)

UTAH: -16.0%

• Deseret News/Hinckley Institute (Mar. 31): Biden-16% (40% Approve, 56% Disapprove)

VIRGINIA: +19.0%

• Wason Center (Feb. 14): Biden+21% (57% Approve, 36% Disapprove)
• Roanoke College (Mar. 02): Biden+17% (47% Approve, 30% Disapprove)

WASHINGTON: +28.0%

• SurveyUSA (Feb. 09): Biden+28% (56% Approve, 28% Disapprove)

WISCONSIN: +2.0%

• SurveyUSA (Feb. 09): Biden+28% (47% Approve, 45% Disapprove)

MAP

Key:

30% green shade: Biden up 2.0 - 4.9%
40% green shade: Biden up 5.0 - 9.9%
50% green shade: Biden up 10.0 - 14.9%
60% green shade: Biden up 15.0 - 19.9%
70% green shade: Biden up 20.0 - 24.9%
80% green shade: Biden up 25.0 - 29.9%
90% green shade: Biden up 30.0%+

50% yellow shade: Average Net Approval between -1.9% and +1.9%

30% red shade: Biden down 2.0 - 4.9%
40% red shade: Biden down 5.0 - 9.9%
50% red shade: Biden down 10.0 - 14.9%
60% red shade: Biden down 15.0 - 19.9%
70% red shade: Biden down 20.0 - 24.9%
80% red shade: Biden down 25.0 - 29.9%
90% red shade: Biden down 30.0%+

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), April 14-15, 1005 adults

Approve 54 (-2)
Disapprove 38 (+1)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's gonna be a D plus 3.1 Election like last time which is neutral Environment, there is gonna be some buyers remorse in the S but since D's are gonna hold most Gov, Rs are gonna have a difficult time

[Biden his time]

Poll of 1,126 Registered Texas Voters by UT Tyler

Margin of error: ±2.9% (±4.1% including design effects)

President Biden approval rating: +7% (48% Approve - 41% Disapprove)
Governor Abbott approval rating: +14% (50% Approve - 36% Disapprove)
Lieutenant Governor Patrick approval rating: +11% (37% Approve - 26% Disapprove)
Attorney General Paxton approval rating: +11% (37% Approve - 26% Disapprove)

Senator Cornyn favorability rating: +19% (43% Favorable - 24% Unfavorable)
Senator Cruz favorability rating: +2% (44% Favorable - 42% Unfavorable)
Vice President Harris favorability rating: +3% (43% Favorable - 40% Unfavorable)
Politician O'Rourke favorability rating: -2% (35% Favorable - 37% Unfavorable)

President Biden on Immigration: -22% (30% Approve - 52% Disapprove)

Crosstabs:

30% Democrat, 37% Republican, 33% Neither
22% Liberal, 40% Conservative, 31% Moderate
36% voted for Trump in 2020, 32% voted for Biden in 2020, 30% didn't vote at all in 2020
57% Non-Hispanic White, 23% Hispanic, 14% Non-Hispanic Black


This polling firm is rated B/C by FiveThirtyEight.


This poll looks quite reliable to me, NGL.

In fact it was an interesting read, especially the part about news sources by political party. I encourage you to read it.

[Person Man]

Poll of 1,126 Registered Texas Voters by UT Tyler

Margin of error: ±2.9% (±4.1% including design effects)

President Biden approval rating: +7% (48% Approve - 41% Disapprove)
Governor Abbott approval rating: +14% (50% Approve - 36% Disapprove)
Lieutenant Governor Patrick approval rating: +11% (37% Approve - 26% Disapprove)
Attorney General Paxton approval rating: +11% (37% Approve - 26% Disapprove)

Senator Cornyn favorability rating: +19% (43% Favorable - 24% Unfavorable)
Senator Cruz favorability rating: +2% (44% Favorable - 42% Unfavorable)
Vice President Harris favorability rating: +3% (43% Favorable - 40% Unfavorable)
Politician O'Rourke favorability rating: -2% (35% Favorable - 37% Unfavorable)

President Biden on Immigration: -22% (30% Approve - 52% Disapprove)

Crosstabs:

30% Democrat, 37% Republican, 33% Neither
22% Liberal, 40% Conservative, 31% Moderate
36% voted for Trump in 2020, 32% voted for Biden in 2020, 30% didn't vote at all in 2020
57% Non-Hispanic White, 23% Hispanic, 14% Non-Hispanic Black


This polling firm is rated B/C by FiveThirtyEight.


This poll looks quite reliable to me, NGL.

In fact it was an interesting read, especially the part about news sources by political party. I encourage you to read it.

I could believe Biden will get 48% in 2024 Texas in a neutral election.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TX ISNT HAPPENING UNLESS MCCOUNGHEY SAYS HE IS GONNA RUN don't forget what happened to HEGAR last yr

[pbrower2a]

Poll of 1,126 Registered Texas Voters by UT Tyler

Margin of error: ±2.9% (±4.1% including design effects)

President Biden approval rating: +7% (48% Approve - 41% Disapprove)
Governor Abbott approval rating: +14% (50% Approve - 36% Disapprove)
Lieutenant Governor Patrick approval rating: +11% (37% Approve - 26% Disapprove)
Attorney General Paxton approval rating: +11% (37% Approve - 26% Disapprove)

Senator Cornyn favorability rating: +19% (43% Favorable - 24% Unfavorable)
Senator Cruz favorability rating: +2% (44% Favorable - 42% Unfavorable)
Vice President Harris favorability rating: +3% (43% Favorable - 40% Unfavorable)
Politician O'Rourke favorability rating: -2% (35% Favorable - 37% Unfavorable)

President Biden on Immigration: -22% (30% Approve - 52% Disapprove)

Crosstabs:

30% Democrat, 37% Republican, 33% Neither
22% Liberal, 40% Conservative, 31% Moderate
36% voted for Trump in 2020, 32% voted for Biden in 2020, 30% didn't vote at all in 2020
57% Non-Hispanic White, 23% Hispanic, 14% Non-Hispanic Black


This polling firm is rated B/C by FiveThirtyEight.


This poll looks quite reliable to me, NGL.

In fact it was an interesting read, especially the part about news sources by political party. I encourage you to read it.

Well, so much for the recent qualification that Texas had an approval margin that hardly existed. If this holds up (a gigantic assumption in its own right), then President Biden will be re-elected in the largest landslide since at least Bill Clinton in 1996. Texas is becoming more like the USA as a whole in its politics as it becomes richer and better-educated. Texas used to be more typical of a poor Southern state, but that is over. I'm not saying that it is quite Virginia or Colorado yet, but it is now decidedly more prosperous than the states that border it even if those states are all very different in political heritage.       

Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

50% green shade: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+


It is approval ratings, and not favorability ratings. Favorability ratings are relevant when they are blatant  (as in states that are not close and usually do not get polled, like New York Rhode Island or Oklahoma) because the states rarely decide an election, but they always must defer to approval. Would I use a favorability rating for Illinois? Sure. Wisconsin? Absolutely not.

A poll for Pennsylvania showed a significant edge for Biden in favorability.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is turning out to be a D plus 2.5 to 4.0 Election I don't expect it to be a plus 8 Election but enough for 53 Senate seats and Hold the H

[pbrower2a]

This is turning out to be a D plus 2.5 to 4.0 Election I don't expect it to be a plus 8 Election but enough for 53 Senate seats and Hold the H

Bum polls are possible... but Texas is unique. States can change in their political orientation, and Texas seems to be such a state. It is possible to see change in the other direction in Iowa and Ohio. Polls can be wrong. But let's look at how statewide pols are doing in Texas and see if the Biden approval rating says anything.

the Governor: 50-41 approve/disapprove.
the Lieutenant Governor: 37-26 approve/disapprove (it looks as if people are paying little attention).
the Attorney-General:  37-26 approve/disapprove

Senator Cornyn 42-24 favorable/unfavorable
Senator Cruz 44-42 favorable/unfavorable

 

[Nightcore Nationalist]

Pew Research, April 5-11, 5109 adults (change from early March)

Approve 59 (+5)
Disapprove 39 (-3)

Maybe you should take a look at the partisan composition of their sample :

lolololololol.

Wouldn't a proper partisan balance (in accordance with actual registered voters) be like 41-42 GOP vs 47-48 Dem?


I would have loved to see the crosstabs on the Biden + 17 WI poll.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The reason why Biden Approvals are staying above 50 is due to Police brutality and Gun violence and Insurrectionists, there had been absolutely no accountability on the part of RS on Gaetz, Hawley and Cruz for their role in Insurrectionists and sex sting

But, the Rs were quickly to denounce Foley and Craig on SSM

No difference between Vitter and Ensign whom also resigned

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TX is ground zero for Cruz and his assistance to Insurrectionists because he is a tea partier and ground zero for Energy crisis

Rs can keep their Cruz and Hawley but they dont have to Majority party

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, April 17-20, 1500 adults including 1225 RV

Adults:

Approve 49 (nc)
Disapprove 38 (-4)

Strongly approve 27 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 28 (-3)

RV:

Approve 51 (nc)
Disapprove 42 (-1)

Strongly approve 31 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 33 (-1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

ARG economic survey (monthly), April 17-20, 1100 adults including 988 RV

Adults:

Approve 59 (-1)
Disapprove 35 (+1)

RV:

Approve 59 (-1)
Disapprove 35 (+1)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Stop it, Biden Approvals isn't 59 percent, I will not be convinced of any 59 percent approvals unless Covid is over or substantially reduced to the point that everyone returns to work

There are LIMITS TO WHAT FED GOVT CAN DO ERADICATING COVID AND THE 1400 CHECKS WERENT ENOUGH, AS LONG AS COVID CONTINUES

[sting in the rafters]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, April 17-20, 1500 adults including 1225 RV

Adults:

Approve 49 (nc)
Disapprove 38 (-4)

Strongly approve 27 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 28 (-3)

RV:

Approve 51 (nc)
Disapprove 42 (-1)

Strongly approve 31 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 33 (-1)

Key crosstab breakdowns:

By Party Affiliation:
D:85-9
R:17-76
I:45-46
By Ideology:
Liberal:82-11
Moderate:60-30
Conservative:19-73
In front of a ballot those undecided Ds/Rs come home (and realistically that R number is gonna be 90+%.) Most public surveys have the party id edge as ~D+3-4, which is just about the NPV they need to win the House nationwide. Very important that Joey keeps the party unified on the national level and local parties convert those D-leaning independents into the base.

[It’s so Joever]

The fact Biden is losing indies already is horrid. We are screwed!

This IS the Covid recovery period, we are seeing rapid economic growth and things are getting back to normal. The fact that Biden can’t even get positive approval among indies at his peak means this will be a horrid next few years. Well be lucky if we don’t have a 2010 style wave.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We need to see polls from every state, I won't be confident about any R or D wave until there polls lots of them, and aren't many except Biden approvals 49 one minute and then 60 again

Midterms are determined by Generic ballot numbers anyways, not Prez Approvals, we need to see the Generic ballot test

[pbrower2a]

45% approval at the start of the electoral season (just under three years from now) will be enough for a Biden win if he has a competent and spirited campaign for re-election. That's how Obama got re-elected. 41% approval, which is about what Trump had around February 2020, is inadequate even with a competent and spirited campaign. Trump still got close to winning.

59% approval is what one typically sees for someone in his Party in a state that strongly identifies with his party. Joe Biden isn't making many mistakes yet. That can change -- and oh, can it change.

We need to see polls from every state, I won't be confident about any R or D wave until there polls lots of them, and aren't many except Biden approvals 49 one minute and then 60 again

Midterms are determined by Generic ballot numbers anyways, not Prez Approvals, we need to see the Generic ballot test

We haven't seen  that (Survey Monkey?) since the Trump Presidency. 50 states can tell us far more than 22 (23 if you count a poll of Pennsylvania that shows favorability... in that one Biden is ahead by a high single-digit margin),