Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[Red Velvet]

The Southern Cone-Andean-Pacific area is turning into a real bright spot in general in terms of the global left's electoral fortunes. Who would have thought two or three years ago that that whole region would have leftist or center-left Presidents now?

It’s all South America minus only Ecuador and Uruguay this time. But Uruguay is a place where the right doesn’t look as crazy like in other places.

Colombia and Brazil are shifting in 2022 as well. Pink tide from 00s will feel like a small thing because that happened with less countries.

Don’t forget Mexico is also currently left as well (it wasn’t in 00s, neither Colombia).

[Red Velvet]

Although not quite the whole Southern Cone (Lacalle Pou’s done well with the pandemic but he did make it a crime to insult a cop), and not the whole Andean Community (insofar as that means anything, but however you slice it Ecuador doesn’t) either.

Not only Colombia, Ecuador and Uruguay don't have leftists governments but Castillo in Perú has sinking approvals and the peronists in Argentina (who are sh*t, no idea why someone outside of this country would claim them) just lost their majorities with horrid results in the midterm election.

Also I find it funny that Nathan talks about "who could have predicted this?", lol, several South American governments have been alternating between lefty and rightie governments for decades now. Not really a stretch that opposition parties might win. This pattern has been pretty obvious in, for instance, the country that this thread is about

Argentina will be the first country to jump off the trend in 2023 (when Alberto Fernandez was the one who started) and risk being regionally isolated if they put an extreme right kind of person. Wouldn’t be very good for them.

[Red Velvet]

At this point we need to start talking about a red tide instead of a new pink tide.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Just watched the video of Piñera and Boric speaking. Piñera said “when we take the path of fratricidal wars amongst ourselves it always ends badly” and I don’t know if that’s more laughable or disgusting, coming from him.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Although not quite the whole Southern Cone (Lacalle Pou’s done well with the pandemic but he did make it a crime to insult a cop), and not the whole Andean Community (insofar as that means anything, but however you slice it Ecuador doesn’t) either.

Not only Colombia, Ecuador and Uruguay don't have leftists governments but Castillo in Perú has sinking approvals and the peronists in Argentina (who are sh*t, no idea why someone outside of this country would claim them) just lost their majorities with horrid results in the midterm election.

Also I find it funny that Nathan talks about "who could have predicted this?", lol, several South American governments have been alternating between lefty and rightie governments for decades now. Not really a stretch that opposition parties might win. This pattern has been pretty obvious in, for instance, the country that this thread is about

Well, yeah, in the grand scheme of things that's obviously true (and not just in Latin America; there are also clear pink and blue tides in the Global North like, say, the late 40s and early 50s vs. the 80s and early 90s), but the tone in English-language reporting on Latin America especially after Bolsonaro's win in 2018 was very doomer for about eighteen months, mostly because of the (in retrospect perhaps somewhat racist) assumption that these guys would be at least as good at abolishing substantive democracy in these countries as, say, Orban. I'm not surprised to hear that that wasn't the case domestically, but I also just plain didn't know it, so thank you for informing me.

I'm not passing judgment one way or the other on or attempting to "claim" Fernandez (who seems like a nitwit from what I know of him), only remarking that he tends to be classified as left-of-center rather than right-of-center.

[Oryxslayer]

The Southern Cone-Andean-Pacific area is turning into a real bright spot in general in terms of the global left's electoral fortunes. Who would have thought two or three years ago that that whole region would have leftist or center-left Presidents now?

It’s all South America minus only Ecuador and Uruguay this time. But Uruguay is a place where the right doesn’t look as crazy like in other places.

Colombia and Brazil are shifting in 2022 as well. Pink tide from 00s will feel like a small thing because that happened with less countries.

Don’t forget Mexico is also currently left as well (it wasn’t in 00s, neither Colombia).

I realllly hate this sort of analysis - don't take what I am about to say personally, its more just a rant  at this type of analysis in general. It seemingly ignores whatever is going on in each country and the circumstances behand that election and reduces things to an strict comparison that ignores the intricacies of local political coalitions, while also cherry-picking the results one likes and doesn't like. The only time this really made sense recently was in the original pink tide because most Latin American political systems were starting from the same position. Authoritarian and often right-leaning governments - or their unstable immediate successors - all turned to the previous opposition which was usually socialist. But not always, even back then there was cherry-picking when it came to Mexico throwing off it's authoritarian regime and the Fujimori state among others.

Four years ago I could have said a Blue tide was rolling over the region. But this would be ignoring Mexico (which finally appears to be moving from a 2.5 to a 2 alliance system) and Ecuador, among others.

Today if one is the make the comparison, then they throwing aside Ecuador, Argentina (The Peronists only held on last month cause the Class of seats up already had a strong JxC lean, but even then we are handwaving aside Argentina's 'unique' political alliances), and whatever is going on in El Salvador - among others.

And if there is a shared circumstance, it is the pendulum of power swinging naturally from on side to the other. Pinera greatest strength in 2017 and Boric's in 2021 was the people's opinion of the incumbent government. Same with AMLO in 2018. Likely the same with Lula or whomever else in Brazil, and they would be following a president who rose to power by exploiting dissatisfaction with his corrupt predecessor. Peru is basically stuck in a cycle of unpopularity and corruption leading to presidential impeachments, with no sign that Castillo's future is any different. In this sense, it is only pure coincidence that in any particular moment the multitude of pendulums are all momentarily in the same position, before all going the separate and individual ways. 

[DL]

I know that AMLO in Mexico is often described as being on the left but where is the evidence for that? He seemed very cosy with Trump and his Covid policies have been very Bolsonaro like. What has he ever done that is actually leftwing?

[Red Velvet]

Although not quite the whole Southern Cone (Lacalle Pou’s done well with the pandemic but he did make it a crime to insult a cop), and not the whole Andean Community (insofar as that means anything, but however you slice it Ecuador doesn’t) either.

Not only Colombia, Ecuador and Uruguay don't have leftists governments but Castillo in Perú has sinking approvals and the peronists in Argentina (who are sh*t, no idea why someone outside of this country would claim them) just lost their majorities with horrid results in the midterm election.

Also I find it funny that Nathan talks about "who could have predicted this?", lol, several South American governments have been alternating between lefty and rightie governments for decades now. Not really a stretch that opposition parties might win. This pattern has been pretty obvious in, for instance, the country that this thread is about

Well, yeah, in the grand scheme of things that's obviously true (and not just in Latin America; there are also clear pink and blue tides in the Global North like, say, the late 40s and early 50s vs. the 80s and early 90s), but the tone in English-language reporting on Latin America especially after Bolsonaro's win in 2018 was very doomer for about eighteen months, mostly because of the (in retrospect perhaps somewhat racist) assumption that these guys would be at least as good at abolishing substantive democracy in these countries as, say, Orban. I'm not surprised to hear that that wasn't the case domestically, but I also just plain didn't know it, so thank you for informing me.

I'm not passing judgment one way or the other on or attempting to "claim" Fernandez (who seems like a nitwit from what I know of him), only remarking that he tends to be classified as left-of-center rather than right-of-center.

Well, that tells you more about how US media sees Latin America as a fragile democracy place more than anything.

LatAm isn’t Brazil and Brazil was never far-right country either. PT is set to win 5th election out of their last 6, with the only one they lost being the one which they had to arrest Lula in order to make sure they would lose (and they still managed to get like, 45% for a bland boring replacement in the time it was the most popular ever to trash them). 5 out of 6 elections is not something minor.

There are differences between each country, but as a whole, Latin America has too large income inequality to be right-wing for way too long. There’s a reason it takes fascist dictatorships in order for the right to not lose power. Usually most of the time the natural thing is for constant transfers of power to happen.

Chile in particular, is a very critical and ~~anti~~ whoever is in power type of country. They usually elect someone who ideologically opposes whoever is the incumbent. I wouldn’t be surprised if the center-right came back there in 2025, or maybe even a Kast far-right version.

[Red Velvet]

The Southern Cone-Andean-Pacific area is turning into a real bright spot in general in terms of the global left's electoral fortunes. Who would have thought two or three years ago that that whole region would have leftist or center-left Presidents now?

It’s all South America minus only Ecuador and Uruguay this time. But Uruguay is a place where the right doesn’t look as crazy like in other places.

Colombia and Brazil are shifting in 2022 as well. Pink tide from 00s will feel like a small thing because that happened with less countries.

Don’t forget Mexico is also currently left as well (it wasn’t in 00s, neither Colombia).

I realllly hate this sort of analysis - don't take what I am about to say personally, its more just a rant  at this type of analysis in general. It seemingly ignores whatever is going on in each country and the circumstances behand that election and reduces things to an strict comparison that ignores the intricacies of local political coalitions, while also cherry-picking the results one likes and doesn't like. The only time this really made sense recently was in the original pink tide because most Latin American political systems were starting from the same position. Authoritarian and often right-leaning governments - or their unstable immediate successors - all turned to the previous opposition which was usually socialist. But not always, even back then there was cherry-picking when it came to Mexico throwing off it's authoritarian regime and the Fujimori state among others.

Four years ago I could have said a Blue tide was rolling over the region. But this would be ignoring Mexico (which finally appears to be moving from a 2.5 to a 2 alliance system) and Ecuador, among others.

Today if one is the make the comparison, then they throwing aside Ecuador, Argentina (The Peronists only held on last month cause the Class of seats up already had a strong JxC lean, but even then we are handwaving aside Argentina's 'unique' political alliances), and whatever is going on in El Salvador - among others.

And if there is a shared circumstance, it is the pendulum of power swinging naturally from on side to the other. Pinera greatest strength in 2017 and Boric's in 2021 was the people's opinion of the incumbent government. Same with AMLO in 2018. Likely the same with Lula or whomever else in Brazil, and they would be following a president who rose to power by exploiting dissatisfaction with his corrupt predecessor. Peru is basically stuck in a cycle of unpopularity and corruption leading to presidential impeachments, with no sign that Castillo's future is any different. In this sense, it is only pure coincidence that in any particular moment the multitude of pendulums are all momentarily in the same position, before all going the separate and individual ways.  

The dissatisfaction in Brazil was artificially media-fabricated in a time the economy started having a bad shift. What people were REALLY dissatisfied with in 2015-2016 was the economy downturn after a decade of good news. Media presented Car-Wash as the savior that gave an excuse of corruption to get rid of the government (something that was based on questionable claims and some level of persecution if you followed Glenn Greenwald’s report on that) but it was really about the economy to most people. And even in the middle of all the media bloodbath drive since 2015, PT still maintained respectable numbers with boring stand-in for Lula.

And Peru always sets itself on political chaos and they appear to not suffer major effects from it (including the economy), which just justifies to them the idea of keeping on doing it lol

Which recent Peruvian leader had happy ending? It’s lose-lose situation there where everyone is trying to destroy someone but they seem to find a way to make it work in their own way. I wish we had more of that stability they have in my country because it’s the opposite here and everytime the right and left go at each others throats instead of having a dialogue, the country does see major effects.

There was absolutely a Conservative wave overall in the 2010s, especially in the mid to late part of that decade. It was in parts a reaction to the pink tide of 00s and early 2010s, but also something that reflected the time the world was living (not just LatAm seemed more right in the late 2010s)

However, it was something more disjointed and with lack of coordination and strategy. Too based on propaganda to work on long term, because you gotta show at least SOME results as well. Which is why the Conservative wave is not sustaining itself for as long as the Pink tide did. I don’t even think the LatAm left is popular, but it’s looking it will come back stronger than in the 00s simply for the fact that the LatAm right manages to be even more disliked.

[Red Velvet]

I know that AMLO in Mexico is often described as being on the left but where is the evidence for that? He seemed very cosy with Trump and his Covid policies have been very Bolsonaro like. What has he ever done that is actually leftwing?

What has he done that is right-wing? And it needs to be something that you can’t associate to Trump.

Relationship with/Opinion on Trump doesn’t define the ideological spectrum lol

[DL]

I know that AMLO in Mexico is often described as being on the left but where is the evidence for that? He seemed very cosy with Trump and his Covid policies have been very Bolsonaro like. What has he ever done that is actually leftwing?

What has he done that is right-wing? And it needs to be something that you can’t associate to Trump.

Relationship with/Opinion on Trump doesn’t define the ideological spectrum lol

Being in denial about Covid and parroting anti-vax and anti-mask drivel that one usually associated with rightwing nutbars

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I know that AMLO in Mexico is often described as being on the left but where is the evidence for that? He seemed very cosy with Trump and his Covid policies have been very Bolsonaro like. What has he ever done that is actually leftwing?

What has he done that is right-wing? And it needs to be something that you can’t associate to Trump.

Relationship with/Opinion on Trump doesn’t define the ideological spectrum lol

Being in denial about Covid and parroting anti-vax and anti-mask drivel that one usually associated with rightwing nutbars

"Associated" is operative here imo; vaccine conspiracy theories were a moonbat thing before they were a wingnut thing.

AMLO being aligned (ish) with Trump also doesn't necessarily make him right-wing since Trump was happy to play nice with leftist leaders in other countries as long as they were macho and strongmannish enough for him. Duterte isn't exactly a pillar of the right in his country either.

[H. Ross Peron]

I know that AMLO in Mexico is often described as being on the left but where is the evidence for that? He seemed very cosy with Trump and his Covid policies have been very Bolsonaro like. What has he ever done that is actually leftwing?

What has he done that is right-wing? And it needs to be something that you can’t associate to Trump.

Relationship with/Opinion on Trump doesn’t define the ideological spectrum lol

Being in denial about Covid and parroting anti-vax and anti-mask drivel that one usually associated with rightwing nutbars

"Associated" is operative here imo; vaccine conspiracy theories were a moonbat thing before they were a wingnut thing.

AMLO being aligned (ish) with Trump also doesn't necessarily make him right-wing since Trump was happy to play nice with leftist leaders in other countries as long as they were macho and strongmannish enough for him. Duterte isn't exactly a pillar of the right in his country either.

I think the real evidence of AMLO's conservatism is his extremely fiscally conservative policy that even sources Bloomberg decried (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-10/u-s-stimulus-is-delivering-the-cash-to-mexicans-that-amlo-won-t). This obviously isn't because AMLO is an ideological Chicago School devotee but rather his small "c" conservative mindset of the small town merchant who believes that one's accounts must always stay in the black that makes him regard deficits with horror and encourages him to make public displays of economy. Lots of parallels to Jimmy Carter here.

[H. Ross Peron]

Kast only leading Boric 53-46 among Chilean expats in the United States is pretty indicative of Boric's strong majority in the runoff.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

It's unclear to me why we're discussing AMLO in a thread about Chile but I might as well weigh-in: Mexican politics defies easy characterization in terms of "left" and "right". Clearly, the PAN appears to be something like a center-right party, whereas the old PRD was clearly a center-left party, but Mexican history is totally lacking in class-based divides between socialists representing the working class and reactionaries or liberals representing elites. Instead, there is a long-standing tradition of charismatic, populist leaders, who have established broad appeal through clientelism/patronage and, also, nationalism aimed at foreign invaders or investors etc. AMLO represents a return to this tradition, best embodied in the PRI - it's unclear to me what's left-wing about it even if his opponents are convinced he is Hugo Chavez. This is quite unlike anything else in Latin America so searching for parallels in Mexico in other countries is basically a bad idea.

Bluntly, nothing about Chilean politics should make you think about Mexico - there are, quite literally, no similarities, no parallels. Chilean politics is more similar to politics in Japan than it is to politics in Mexico!

[CumbrianLefty]

Lula sent the congratulations tweet to Boric

"Parabenizo o companheiro @gabrielboric por sua eleição para Presidente do Chile. Fico feliz por mais uma vitória de um candidato democrata e progressista na nossa América Latina, para a construção de um futuro melhor para todos."
https://twitter.com/LulaOficial/status/1472710630016700418

Probably he is very happy because of this fresh air to the South American left

Well, he will also be delighted that a Bolsonaro wannabe has been defeated.

And yes, you do love to see it

[Cassius]

I know that AMLO in Mexico is often described as being on the left but where is the evidence for that? He seemed very cosy with Trump and his Covid policies have been very Bolsonaro like. What has he ever done that is actually leftwing?

What has he done that is right-wing? And it needs to be something that you can’t associate to Trump.

Relationship with/Opinion on Trump doesn’t define the ideological spectrum lol

Being in denial about Covid and parroting anti-vax and anti-mask drivel that one usually associated with rightwing nutbars

"Associated" is operative here imo; vaccine conspiracy theories were a moonbat thing before they were a wingnut thing.

AMLO being aligned (ish) with Trump also doesn't necessarily make him right-wing since Trump was happy to play nice with leftist leaders in other countries as long as they were macho and strongmannish enough for him. Duterte isn't exactly a pillar of the right in his country either.

I think the real evidence of AMLO's conservatism is his extremely fiscally conservative policy that even sources Bloomberg decried (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-10/u-s-stimulus-is-delivering-the-cash-to-mexicans-that-amlo-won-t). This obviously isn't because AMLO is an ideological Chicago School devotee but rather his small "c" conservative mindset of the small town merchant who believes that one's accounts must always stay in the black that makes him regard deficits with horror and encourages him to make public displays of economy. Lots of parallels to Jimmy Carter here.

Given Mexico’s history of debt and currency crises (well within living memory), this isn’t necessarily a senseless position to take. Unlike the United States or certain other Western states, a country like Mexico can’t rely on investors simply rolling over loans ad infinitum.

[Estrella]

_{I have an exam tomorrow. Why am I doing this. And why are the numbers so unreadable. Ugh.}

[Velasco]

Finally a relative turnout surge (by Chilean standards) and a relatively easy win for Boric. I am pleased

[Sir John Johns]

If we are going to discuss ‘trends’ in Latin America, beyond a shift of balance between ‘right’ and ‘left’ (which are very relative notions when discussing Latin America), the obvious one in most if not all recent elections has been the systematic defeat of the incumbent candidate or the candidate the most associated with the incumbent administration (or perceived as such):

* in the 2019 Ecuadorian local elections, the Alianza PAIS by then led (well ‘led’) by President Moreno saw its remaining political infrastructure collapsing with the party not even bothering running candidates in Quito and Cuenca mayoral races and being a non-factor in the election for mayor of Guayaquil

* in the 2019 Bolivian presidential election, incumbent president Morales failed for the first time since 2005 to obtain an absolute majority in the first round

* in the 2019 Argentinian presidential election, incumbent Macri was crushed in his reelection bid

* in the 2019 Uruguayan presidential election, the victory of Lacalle Pou put an end to fifteen years of uninterrupted Broad Front rule.

* in the 2020 Peruvian legislative election, the parties of the two runners-up of the 2016 presidential were trashed in the election with Fujimori’s party suffering heavy loses and PPK’s party losing parliamentary representation.

* in the 2020 Bolivian presidential election, the MAS scored a major victory with Arce being elected in the first round, well helped by the gross incompetence of the Añez administration that hampered the right-wing candidates

* in the 2021 Ecuadorian presidential election, Lasso prevailed over Correa’s candidate; this one is a tricky one as both candidates blamed each other for Moreno’s catastrophic administration. The nail in the coffin of the candidacy of Arauz was probably the revelation that he was technically on the payroll of the Moreno government (while studying abroad in Mexico but ensured to get his post back when returning to Ecuador, another cause of controversy) he had spent the campaign denouncing as the ‘worst government in history’ until May 2020 unearthing his connection with the unpopular president and enabling his rival to portray him as insincere and hypocrite. It also helped Lasso there were no shortage of photos showing Correa standing next to Moreno and that CREO co-governed with Moreno’s Alianza PAIS for just only seven months (May 2019-January 2020), which is the exact same duration that lasted the unity of Alianza PAIS after Moreno’s inauguration.

Additionally, while Arauz under-performed in the first round compared to the polls and lost ground compared to Moreno 2017, Lasso suffered even heavier losses compared to his 2017 bid (even more impressive when considering there was then a strong PSC candidacy challenging him for the right-wing vote when the PSC withdrew its candidacy in 2020 to endorse Lasso) and barely qualified for the runoff, meaning the right-wing candidate also suffered from the anti-incumbency mood to the benefit of fresh faces like Pérez, Hervas and Freile. In the end, due to massive surge in null votes in the runoff, Lasso was elected president in 2021 but while receiving some 180,000 votes less than in the 2017 runoff when defeated

* in the 2021 Peruvian presidential election, the candidates of the ‘mainstream’ right and left were defeated in the first round and Fujimori ultimately lost probably partly because of her association with the parliamentary shenanigans of her party under PPK and Vizcarra and various corruption scandals in stark contrast with Castillo, a political newcomer and outsider

* in the 2021 Bolivian local elections, the ruling MAS suffered an unexpected setback when defeated in most major cities (La Paz, Santa Cruz, Cochabamba, El Alto) and in all governor’s races that went to the runoff. It didn’t helped that Morales came back only to renew with his autocratic methods and imposed his own candidates over the ones elected by the MAS’s bases (Eva Copa or Regis Richter who ended up being elected as dissidents against Morales’s appointees).

* in the 2021 Argentinian legislative elections, Peronism was heavily defeated and lost control of the Senate

You may also add the collapse of the ARENA-FMLN duopoly in El Salvador in 2019, the under-performance of MORENA in the legislative election of last June (losing its absolute majority despite the sorry state of opposition parties) and the Nationalist Party being brutally ousted from office in Honduras last month.

And so, now the defeat of Kast who is obviously the candidate politically the closest to unpopular incumbent Piñera. Next ones to fall should be (hopefully) Bolsonaro in Brazil and Uribe's candidate in Colombia; Colorado Party will certainly been reelected in Paraguay however, even if this is because the main alternative is barely less corrupt but very much more ineffective and also because the Colorado Party is changing its presidential candidate each four years hence enabling some semblance of ‘change’.

The only exceptions are the fake elections (Nicaragua, where the Ortegas would have been defeated had the election been free and fair, and Venezuela with the latter having actually two fairly unpopular incumbent presidents) and Bukele winning a majority in the Salvadorean parliament few months ago.

[kaoras]

Some election data: (M= women, H= men)

Turnout by age and gender.


Vote share by age and gender.



The Metropolitan region especifically:

[BigSerg]

It's unclear to me why we're discussing AMLO in a thread about Chile but I might as well weigh-in: Mexican politics defies easy characterization in terms of "left" and "right". Clearly, the PAN appears to be something like a center-right party, whereas the old PRD was clearly a center-left party, but Mexican history is totally lacking in class-based divides between socialists representing the working class and reactionaries or liberals representing elites. Instead, there is a long-standing tradition of charismatic, populist leaders, who have established broad appeal through clientelism/patronage and, also, nationalism aimed at foreign invaders or investors etc. AMLO represents a return to this tradition, best embodied in the PRI - it's unclear to me what's left-wing about it even if his opponents are convinced he is Hugo Chavez. This is quite unlike anything else in Latin America so searching for parallels in Mexico in other countries is basically a bad idea.

Bluntly, nothing about Chilean politics should make you think about Mexico - there are, quite literally, no similarities, no parallels. Chilean politics is more similar to politics in Japan than it is to politics in Mexico!

Morena (Amlo) is not a leftist party, it is a front with many parties of different ideology and I would even dare to say that Amlo is a "social conservative". There are many divisions within his party on the issue of religion, abortion and gay marriage and when all these factions have been at odds with each other, Amlo has always supported the "conservative" faction.

[PSOL]

It's unclear to me why we're discussing AMLO in a thread about Chile but I might as well weigh-in: Mexican politics defies easy characterization in terms of "left" and "right". Clearly, the PAN appears to be something like a center-right party, whereas the old PRD was clearly a center-left party, but Mexican history is totally lacking in class-based divides between socialists representing the working class and reactionaries or liberals representing elites. Instead, there is a long-standing tradition of charismatic, populist leaders, who have established broad appeal through clientelism/patronage and, also, nationalism aimed at foreign invaders or investors etc. AMLO represents a return to this tradition, best embodied in the PRI - it's unclear to me what's left-wing about it even if his opponents are convinced he is Hugo Chavez. This is quite unlike anything else in Latin America so searching for parallels in Mexico in other countries is basically a bad idea.

Bluntly, nothing about Chilean politics should make you think about Mexico - there are, quite literally, no similarities, no parallels. Chilean politics is more similar to politics in Japan than it is to politics in Mexico!

Morena (Amlo) is not a leftist party, it is a front with many parties of different ideology and I would even dare to say that Amlo is a "social conservative". There are many divisions within his party on the issue of religion, abortion and gay marriage and when all these factions have been at odds with each other, Amlo has always supported the "conservative" faction.

This is very true. Socialist Alternative and the rapist have been at odds with one another within Morena, and I think there’s several other factions such as the PRDistas that broke off then in 2012 and more recently. And even still Morena governs with more conservative partners like PVEM outweighing PT.

Mexican politics, if anything, resembles Honduras politics where a nominally “left” party—the current iteration of Libre—is composed of numerous factions that moderate the party platform and that they’ve joined with the more conservative Nasrallah to win/govern.

[H. Ross Peron]

Some election data: (M= women, H= men)

Turnout by age and gender.


Vote share by age and gender.



The Metropolitan region especifically:

Chile is pretty interesting in that turnout seems to decrease with age compared to turnout tending to peak in late middle age/early elderhood in most countries I've seen and that it collapses with those over 70 unless its a Covid related effect.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I am very curious to hear our Chilean friends weigh-in on this hypothesis: while I am sure that fears of a return to the Pinochet years are much more potent for the elderly than international trends, is there any reason to think that parts of the Chilean middle class were motivated to vote for Boric against Kast because they were horrified that he could be a Chilean Bolsonaro? The main reason I ask is that I always got the sense that the South American left struggled in the late 2010s, in part, because any left candidate could be tied to PSUV. Is Bolsonaro now a boogeyman on this level?