Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[Red Velvet]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1384112905344348163

[Red Velvet]

Congratulations Chile!

[Red Velvet]

So talking with some Chilean travelers has led me to “discover” that the PCCh is a “social democratic” party. Now I’d like to believe with my first impressions that everyone talks with good faith, so what are they talking about exactly? What in official campaign literature or the party platform are they on about?

It’s probably social-democratic (center-left) in Latin American terms, which is different than what westerners would expect considering someone like Jeremy Corbyn or Bernie Sanders (pretty moderate social-democratic guys to me) are treated as some radical leftists.

Center-left social-democratic to me = Lula (Brazil); Evo Morales (Bolivia); Kirchners (Argentina); Mujica (Uruguay); etc. (Corbyn and Bernie would likely be here too if they were from here)

General ideology = Focus on Income Redistribution; Latin American integration and identity; Not really socialist in practice despite the strong rhetoric: Capitalist and favors private property but flirts with some Marxist-Leninist theories (Socialism of the XXI Century); Often more Internationalist than nationalist and in these days increasingly more socially progressive as well. But that’s not necessarily a general rule and has subtle variations in each place.

They’re probably center-left along the same lines, which naturally will sound radically left-wing to anyone in the right lol. It all depends of the eye of the beholder. Communists would hate them for betraying revolutionary socialism and treating it as something outdated. Right-wingers would see them as a light redesign of communist values in order to fool voters.

[Red Velvet]

Yes, but given the left-wing nature of PS compared to other Latin American parties like PT, I’m interested in hearing some reasons as to what makes the PCCh to be crypto socdems

If the Latin American PT you’re talking about is the Brazilian one, I always saw them as our version of PS. Not necessarily more or less left-wing. There were positive short-term changes but structurally the system was kept because in a democratic system you have to work with tons of different parties to form a majority. Otherwise you do nothing. There are lots of external factors unrelated to the partisan wishes that influence this.

PCC sounds like it’s to the left of both based on the superficial info I read about them. But like kaoras said, if you want to be pragmatic and stay democratic AND relevant you naturally will always somewhat move to the center in practice, even if your campaign rhetoric and internal agenda is more radical.

That’s why I think these Chileans who called it social-democratic would likely say the same about PS and others, or maybe even call them centrists lol

[Red Velvet]

Yes, but given the left-wing nature of PS compared to other Latin American parties like PT, I’m interested in hearing some reasons as to what makes the PCCh to be crypto socdems

If the Latin American PT you’re talking about is the Brazilian one, I always saw them as our version of PS. Not necessarily more or less left-wing. There were positive short-term changes but structurally the system was kept because in a democratic system you have to work with tons of different parties to form a majority. Otherwise you do nothing. There are lots of external factors unrelated to the partisan wishes that influence this.

PCC sounds like it’s to the left of both based on the superficial info I read about them. But like kaoras said, if you want to be pragmatic and stay democratic AND relevant you naturally will always somewhat move to the center in practice, even if your campaign rhetoric and internal agenda is more radical.

That’s why I think these Chileans who called it social-democratic would likely say the same about PS and others, or maybe even call them centrists lol

How is the PT not left wing?

By working with the neoliberal elites so much for the sake of governance and slowly becoming a neoliberal party that has to be proud of “making the rich richer” in order to justify their appeal to the mainstream media and to the 1%, instead of the people that they are supposed to govern for.

Basically, in the same way every center-left party that focuses on class conciliation between the rich and poor in practice kinda gaslights the working classes into a domesticated friendly co-existence with their natural oppressors. Leading to the elites always being the ones favored while lower classes are supposed to be satisfied with mere crumbles.

That’s the general line that leftists use to criticize center-left parties. They would rather have a socialist government instead of a social-democratic one that promotes class conciliation. But like I said, it always depends on the eye of the beholder because they will always see themselves as the true “center”.

But I think it’s true to some extent. Look at center-left parties in Europe crumbling since they became dominated by soulless technocrats, which coincides with the surge of fascism. That’s why it’s necessary to push things to a more radical left than previously, which is the one proposing change instead of being the status-quo. Otherwise those spaces get occupied by the populist right, which is always a scarecrow to maintain the elites privileges under a more authoritarian government. Europe needs it the most.

This is kinda going off-topic, but Chile is interestingly enough, the most successful case of where this left-wing anger is the active force promoting change. Which is why it’s one of the few countries in the world giving me hope for the future. I think the Latin American right is so much more incompetent and horribly evil than their western counterparts that a return of the left will always be the regular development, as long as these elites keep electing people like Piñera, Fujimori, Uribe and Bolsonaro lol. In Chile you also had all the unresolved Pinochet history to add more fuel to that fire. Greedy elites never understand that the more you humiliate the underprivileged, the more likely is for them to revolt in a strong manner.

Europe will stay with the far-right for longer, I suspect. They completely dominate the anti-establishment rhetoric, it’s the complete opposite of Chile. I think it’s especially likely that they will eventually get France. Which could put the EU and as consequence, global neoliberalism, in quite a dilemma. It will be an interesting country to follow.

US, I have no idea tbh. On one hand, I see a very energized left but they’re not necessarily a majority. Although they have been kinda successful in pushing the center of discussion to their side and creating a populist counterpoint to Trumpism, they face the biggest obstacles as their country is the biggest global representative of crony neoliberal capitalism, which is also probably why this younger generation has a higher motivation energy. Centrist democratic establishment will likely push them to compromise on little achievements, so it all depends on their will to fight and complain I guess.

[Red Velvet]

Makes sense that with Chilean society having so much strong energy for change that the runoff will be a close call between Boric vs Kast.

It doesn’t make sense for anyone else other than those two to get elected after everything that has happened in the last two years. Kast slow but constant growth reminds me of Bolsonaro in few months prior to our election in 2018.

[Red Velvet]

October 5th used to be an important day for the old Concertación, they used to have acts every year with all their presidents. Since a few years ago I think they haven't done anything. Everything related to the transition is nowadays seen in a much more negative light, which I think is sad to some extent. Lot of people worked hard for the NO victory and their struggle shouldn't be forgotten, even if the very same people nowadays said that "La Alegría nunca llegó" (the happiness never came, a reference to the famous No jingle)

Why is it seen badly now? The Chilean transition, in my opinion, was a very good one and very orderly, like the Spanish one. I have to disagree with those who say that the "Alegria nunca llégo", because Chile, despite its current problems and because every single country has its own issues, is still one of the richest countries in South America, has a very good standard of living and strong institutions. Many countries in Central and South America would dream to be like Chile, IMO.

I think you’re underestimating a lot the inequality in Chile. It’s no different than any other of its neighbors and the neoliberal policies can make the effects (for the poor at least) be felt even harsher. It’s something visible in Chile and the misery is not just on inequality numbers, it’s actually very visible if you get to know all of Chile.

Actually, Argentina and Uruguay have less inequality than Chile. Peru and Bolivia are more equal too, even if they’re poorer. When you have drastic differences between the rich and the poor, it creates the question where the money actually is and who is really seeing the effects of that wealth and for who those are just bedtime stories.

Brazil’s problem for example, I don’t see it as having to be richer, we’re biggest economy in the continent and at least before the evil devil got into power, we had the biggest proportional growth in LatAm since 1960. However, we have the most wealth gap than any other South American country (even more than Chile!) because we also have the most diverse population and our elites are just as aristocratic-oriented and will attempt to exclude a larger swath of the population from being included as citizens, as active participants on the economy.

And that directly impacts the effects on the potential of the economy. There’s no way to have sustainable and structural growth if people are actively working to exclude a large part of the population from the economy. That’s what I feel like it happens in Brazil (which has the biggest population with African descent in the Americas, who are also most excluded from economy) and Chile (neoliberal policies implemented by Pinochet have natural effect of working to favor in amplifying the gap between the richer segments from the poorer).

This is why places like Brazil are the absolute worst place to apply Chile-like policies btw. Latin America in general, but especially a diverse place like Brazil. Neoliberalism is policy to have when you’re already rich and have very low inequality, like in Europe or something. And even then it will come with some negative side effects.

The way people talk about economy is very incorrect because they act like data necessarily translates into better quality of life for all. You have to take into account how that is redistributed to society as a whole, which segments really benefit from it and who doesn’t, who sustains these gains without seeing the benefits, etc.

[Red Velvet]

There are lots of things I admire about Chile’s transition, especially how they held people from that time accountable (at least in comparison with some other places) after the dictatorship ended.

However, like you said, there are always the pluses and the minuses for every place. I think Portugal identity still holds several and very serious self-esteem problems because of the Salazar regime for example, but overall I still think Portugal is a decent place and does a lot of things better than other places (look at the vaccination program being #1 in the world for example!).

Same way, there’s some things I admire in Chile but a lot of the Pinochet regime still lived there for a long time, inside the constitution. It’s like, the leader was gone, but his soul was still living there. While other places started from zero with new constitution. There’s a reason why Chile is used as poster country to justify Western intervention in Latin American democracy. “Look at how the dictatorship was so much better for them”. In international imaginary, Pinochet is much more tied to Chile than what other military governments are to their countries.

Partially maybe it’s because what happened in Chile in that time was much more brutal and bloodier than in any other place. But also the underlying perception he still lived there in a way, with more long term impact on shaping the country to this day.

I think transitions from dictatorships are never fully perfect though, so makes more sense to people to focus on what didn’t work and could’ve been improved instead of having these imaginary ideas that other places did it worse. Especially one as traumatic as the Chilean one. I mean, the left still holds some “good guys” goodwill here in my personal circle 35 years later because of the trauma and what happened here looks silly if you compare it to Chile history. I can’t even pretend I understand the exact level on how that era shaped Chilean society, but I know it was much higher than here!

Like, do you measure your personal success based on what you want to achieve or on how others are doing? And how can you really know how others are doing when some stuff is so subjective (they may be doing better on some stuff and worse on others).

That’s why when Chileans say “Happiness did never come”, it shouldn’t be taken THAT literally, they’re talking about their own perspective and expectations, the natural feeling that things could’ve and should’ve gone better (they always can, there’s always room for improvement).

I talk about the problems in my country all the time for example but that focus doesn’t mean I think we are sh**t (I actually am mostly proud of how we dealt with some of the current problem we have with our authoritarian, although I have strong criticism too), just that we focus on the problems when we want to improve. Even people in Scandinavian countries have stuff to complain about, they’re currently concerned about growing income inequality.

But I agree with the vibe of what you say that Chile (and every other country tbh) should sometimes acknowledge some of the positive stuff even if focusing on the negative is always more necessary for improvement. You can’t be too positive neither too negative.

[Red Velvet]

There are some Lisbon suburbs that are quite problematic, Cova da Moura and Jamaica, for example. (Cova da Moura image from Público newspaper, and Jamaica image from RTP)

These poor neighborhoods is something almost every place has. There’s way more inequality in Chile than just that photo kaoras posted.

Sometimes I have the impression people outside have this impression that Chile looks more like Europe than they look like Latin American neighbors and that just doesn’t match with reality. It’s actually a very wrong idea.

I played enough GeoGuessr to have an idea of how Chile and other neighbors are like and most places there aren’t really that different. If I’m honest, I think Argentina and Uruguay tend to be the ones better well-preserved in South America and even them have some places that look poorer than those pics you’re bringing (I’m thinking just outside of CABA, in the outskirts of Buenos Aires).

And the poverty existing in Chile becomes much harder to understand when you consider they supposedly are richer. Same way US is sold as richest place on Earth (and they are) but they still have some disturbing poor stuff and dystopian reality that don’t even exist even in much poorer places. I get absolutely shocked not only with the healthcare there, but with the growing number of homeless people, drug addicts and dangerous neighborhoods.

Even if the average infrastructure is obviously better (as it should be, considering their money), it still feels very underwhelming considering what you would expect. And that’s effect of inequality, wealth being concentrated between the richest naturally makes the poor be and look poorer. The wealth is not well-distributed and gets to be concentrated in the hands of only some.

Portugal may look poorer in EU context, but it’s small stuff compared to Chile or average American country.



Btw, I had no idea of the inequality data when I was making this post, but I decided to search it and it turns out Argentina and Uruguay really are the lowest in South America! Knew my instinct based on street viewing was right. Turns out wealth distribution and inequality really describes better how majority of people feel regarding their country “wealth” than simple GDP numbers.

I was right about Peru being more equal than Chile too, but I was wrong about Bolivia But honestly, let’s just agree that all the Americas (except Canada) is very unequal continent in comparison to Europe or Asia.

And being Rich and unequal (Chile) sometimes has not that much difference between being Poor and equal (like India according to the map). Depends on who you are. The 10% richest can live like the rich people in Scandinavia and the rest of the 90% live in precarious situation. Who represents more of the country landscape, the rich living all concentrated in some few fancy snob big city neighborhoods or the poor spread all around the country?

Basically, the rich being very rich doesn’t mean the country itself is rich to most people actual experience.

From most equal to most unequal:

Argentina, Uruguay, Nicaragua
-
 Mexico, Peru, Venezuela, Ecuador, El Salvador, DR
-
Chile, Brazil, Paraguay, Panama, Costa Rica
-
Colombia, Bolivia, Guatemala, Honduras, Haiti

[Red Velvet]

Most recent Chilean polls:

Cadem/Plaza poll for 1st round
Boric - 29% (-1)
Kast - 25% (+4)
Provoste - 18% (+1)
Sichel - 14% (-3)

Panel Ciudadano poll for 1st round
Boric - 30% (+4)
Kast - 24% (+9)
Sichel - 18% (-6)
Provoste - 13%

Panel Ciudadano runoff scenarios
Boric 56% vs Kast 44%
Boric 59% vs Sichel 41%

Criteria poll for 1st round
Boric - 33% (-)
Kast - 21% (+10)
Sichel - 19% (-6)
Provoste - 14%

The Cadem poll is an update in regards the previous poll kaoras posted. We once again keep seeing a Kast non-stop trend of growth, while Sichel keeps going downwards and finally has fallen to 4th place now, behind Provoste.

It’s also a big eye opener that Kast performs better than Sichel against Boric in the runoff poll from Panel Ciudadano but it was something I was already somewhat thinking it could happen. Despite Bolsonaro’s unpopularity in Brazil for example, PSDB performs worse in the runoff against Lula.

Basically, there are a small but not insignificant amount of populist far-right voters who would rather vote for a leftist instead of a moderate right-winger, in the style of the Melenchón-Le Pen voters. While the “moderate” right-winger is more ideologically loyal and will just fall in line with whoever is the right-wing option.

OR, if these far-right voters aren’t actually voting for Boric in the Boric vs Sichel scenario, it still means they aren’t voting for any of the options. Meaning that the far-right doesn’t see the “moderate right” as better than the left.

Left-Right spectrum is becoming outdated in some ways. Divide appears to become more about people who want strong meaningful change (regardless of what it is lol) and people who doesn’t.

[Red Velvet]

Boric basically called Kast a nazi (his father was literally a nazi) and a tax evader (He has offshore accounts in Panamá) and Kast absolutely lost his mind. This is the best debate ever.

Omg do you have links?

The runoff between these two will probably be a bigger explosive event than Keiko Fujimori vs Pedro Castillo.

[Red Velvet]

Yeah I’m watching some clips and Sichel is dead on the water.

Next president from Chile will either be Kast or Boric. Unless there’s an unpredictable big twist that causes the collapse of one of those.

[Red Velvet]

So a recent poll shows Kast and Boric tied in the second round. Boric is most likely going to win this but the very fact it exists is depressing.

I think Kast is actually the favorite. He keeps a nonstop growing trend, who knows how much he can reach?

Chile unfortunately is succumbing to the more populist and “anti-establishment” option after the protests. But oh well, at least the new leftist constitution change will be worth it.

[Red Velvet]

So a recent poll shows Kast and Boric tied in the second round. Boric is most likely going to win this but the very fact it exists is depressing.

I feel like there's no way this can stand. He's far right, way past the Overton window in Chile. This has to come from lack of information about him among regular voters.

People overestimate too much how average voters are “ideological”. Most normal people just don’t care about this right, left, center thing.

[Red Velvet]

If Kast wins, we could make a parallel to France 1789 and 1848. People went to the streets, they were enthuasiastic, there was a revolution, a new constitution, but then... the hangover came and a Bonaparte rose to the power.
But maybe, comparing them to Kast would be offensive to the Bonapartes.

Actually I think the more appropriate comparison is Brazil 2018. There is even the same gender divide within the vote, with the men favoring the far-right candidate while there’s more opposition against them between women.

[Red Velvet]

I don’t believe in Sichel surpassing Kast so it will still be a Boric vs Kast despite the loss of support seen by Kast after his terrible performance at the debate.

And most of these people shifting from Kast to Sichel are still voting Kast in the runoff against Boric. However, I think it’s good that a “ceiling” for Kast was established because until the debate he was in a non-stop trend of growth. The stop and reversal of his growth can help Boric in the runoff.

[Red Velvet]

Link for following the overseas vote. Boric winning very comfortably in Oceania. Asia is right-wing save for Japan (best results for Artés, lmao, JCP stonks) and South Korea (the government apparently was into something with the KPOP thing)

https://tresquintos.cl/votoexterior/

As someone who is used to see Japan being the hotbed of conservative voting (alongside US, especially Florida), this is mind-boggling to me lol

[Red Velvet]

Vote closes in about 30 min if I didn’t get the timezones wrong.

When can we expect to get some preliminary results? Population isn’t big, should be quite fast.

Internationally, Boric is absolutely destroying Kast, especially in Europe lol. Boric with 62,3% so far with expats overall, Kast 2nd with only 13,4%. Sichel 3rd with 10,4%. I wonder if the national vote will reflect at least to some degree this overperformance of the left.

[Red Velvet]

I mean, it’s mostly European + Asian vote kicking in.

I wonder how much to the right the US + LatAm votes will be. Would be surprised if they are as left as Europe. Still good results for Boric though! If he finishes with over 50% with expats is already great signal for him.

[Red Velvet]

No one expects Boric to already win or anything, this was always going to a runoff, but if he finishes between 35%-40% then a big surprise would need to happen between now and the runoff for Kast to be able to upset.

Especially since it’s looking now that Kast and Sichel really are dividing the votes. Kast is only barely ahead of Sichel with expats and even if national votes likely will be more favorable to him than international ones, it could maybe still indicate an underperformance in comparison to polls.

[Red Velvet]

Paper vote huh? 

[Red Velvet]

Paper vote huh?  

As far as I can tell, Brazil is the only country that maintains its particular obsession with electronic voting.

Much more effective and fast. All these people arriving in time but still not being able to vote because of huge lines is insane. US elections had similar issues of accessibility.

It’s an absurd to close the gates for these people after they waited time in the line and were punctual.

[Red Velvet]

So far it looks like polls were actually correct if you look at Chile-only results

[Red Velvet]

Atacama is a different world it seems. Provoste 1st and Parisi 2nd

Boric strongholds seem to be Santiago and to lesser extent, Valparaíso so far. He clearly is a very different candidate than a Lula or an Evo in the sense he performs better with high-education and maybe upper class voters.

The high % he got internationally is another evidence of this. Here in Brazil and in places like Peru it was the opposite, with expats favoring the right over the left, but the national vote balanced things. Here in Chile it’s the opposite happening.

I am guessing Boric is much more of a “PSOL-like” type of candidate and doesn’t have that much deep cultural penetration with more working class type of voters.

[Red Velvet]

30,16% counted

1. Kast 29,05%
2. Boric 23,83%
-
3. Parisi 13,73%
4. Provoste 12,75%
5. Sichel 11,79%
6. Ominami 7,46%
7. Artes 1,39%