Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[kaoras]

A new thread for the 6 elections we have between here and next year.

• November, 29th 2020: Primaries for Gubernatorial and mayoral elections.
• April, 11th 2021: Elections for Mayors, municipal councils, regional governors, and the Constituent Convention.
  
• May 9th: Runoff for gubernatorial elections
• July 4th: Primaries for Presidential and legislative elections.
• November 21st: Elections for presidents, congress and regional councils
• December 19th: Presidential Runoff.

[kaoras]

The first elections are going to be the Primaries for Gubernatorial and mayoral elections. There are 4 electoral pacts doing primaries:

• Chile Vamos (Government and rightist coalition) doing mayoral primaries in 37 municipalities along with the country and gubernatorial primaries in Tarapacá, Antofagasta, Atacama, Coquimbo, Maule, Los Ríos and Aysén regions.
• Constituent Unity (PS+DC+PPD+PR+PRO+CIU, center left) doing gubernatorial primaries in all regions of the country
• Frente Amplio/Broad Front (Leftist coalition) is doing gubernatorial primaries in Tarapacá, Valparaiso, Metropolitan and Los Lagos regions.
• Green Ecologist Party (which left the FA last year) is doing gubernatorial primaries in Araucanía and mayoral primaries in 3 municipalities.

These primaries will have extremely low turnout and honestly is more like a show of strength for the different party machines (and, in the FA case, if they have any kind of drawing power). Although in the opposition case, they are probably going to be used to negotiate omition pacts and the lists for the municipal elections.

Data Influyes poll: (In which primaries would you participate?):

Frente Amplio 13%
Constituent Unity 12%
Chile Vamos 9%
None 66%

[kaoras]

Good catch.

In political news, Chile Vamos has been in a state of disarray since the plebiscite for a variety of reasons. The most noteworthy is that the Chamber of deputies impeached Interior Minister Victor Perez (UDI) over police brutality and he resigned, being replaced by Estación Central mayor Rodrigo Delgado (UDI), which was for approve in the plebiscite.

The government has taken a hit in the polls and Piñera's approval reached single digits again.

There is also polemic because Jose Antonio Kast and his Republican party want to run in a single list with Chile Vamos for the constituent elections. RN and EVOPOLI are against it because of how vicious Kast's criticism has been (also because he is a far-right extremist). I don't think they will reach an accord and honestly, I doubt that Kast is being honest with this offer, seems more like a stunt to me to improve his own standing by shifting the blame to Chile Vamos for the division. (In any case, the left is going to be very divided so if they lost the 1/3 of seats or something it won't be exactly because of running 2 lists)

[kaoras]

Political Update:

A second withdrawal of 10% of the private pensions funds passed the Chamber of Deputies with 2/3 margins given that most of Chile Vamos totally surrendered to the populist impulse. Still hilarious seeing the Christian democrats of all people saying this was a way to hurt the Private Pension system and replace it. This again sent the right in disarray, with Chile Vamos' deputies harshly criticizing the government during the debate. Honestly, the right is almost reaching Opposition levels of disorder, almost (which is still quite an achievement).

On the electoral game. Many groups keep pushing for a Unity left list for the Constituent Elections, but yeah, that's simply won't happen. They are still going to have a crisis over it in a few months though!
On the right, RN leader Mario Desbordes is the main opponent to a unity list with far-right Kast's Republican party. I have to mention the delusional projections that the Right has for the constituent elections. They say that with a unity list they will get 42% but if they split Kast will eat 10% of said vote. Eh... The last time the right got that % of the vote was in 2009. In 2017 they got 38% in parliamentary. Do they seriously think that after all that has happened these years they are going to improve 4%?

Also: Reserved seats for Indigenous seats in the Constituent Convention are stuck because Chile Vamos and the Left can't get an accord. The Right doesn't want to add extra seats to the original 155, they want it to reduce the size of the districts to give some reserved seats because they assume they will electorally profit from that. The left wants to add 24 seats in a nationwide district probably because of the opposite reasons.

[kaoras]

Two new polls came out today and it seems that Chile has indeed found his populist star: deputy Pamela Jiles (Humanist Party-PH, Left) that has spearheaded the bill for the second withdrawal of private pension's funds.

According to Cadem* she is the most popular politician in the country with 65% approval and is starting to go up, from 1 to 4% in presidential preferences. Mind you that the leader of that poll is Lavín with 10% and the leader of the Left is Jadue with 7%, so in perspective, it isn't a bad % at all.

In the Activa Research poll, she even beats Jadue for second place. Is Lavín 13,3%, Jiles 9,6% (+4,4) and Jadue 8,7%. (Though she is still third among LV behind Jadue).

_{I'm pretty sure that Cadem must have changed its methodology or something because the number of undecideds in their poll went down 20 points in a week but whatever.}

[kaoras]

Presidential polling.

You would vote in the primary of...?

Chile Vamos: 21%
Broad Front+Communist Party:19%
DC+PS+PPD+PR (Constituent Unity basically): 18%

Chile Vamos' Primary

Evelyn Matthei (UDI) 33%
Joaquin Lavin (UDI) 27%
Sebastian Sichel (ind) 22%
Mario Desbordes (RN) 9%
Felipe Kast 7%.

In a scenario, with a common primary with Jose Antonio Kast (Republican Party) it would be Lavin 25%, Matthei 22%, JAK 19%. Without Matthei nor JAK, Lavin leads Sichel 34-30%.

kinda-Constituent Unity Primary


Francisco Vidal (PPD) 26%
Ximena Rincón (DC) 17%
Marco Enriquez Ominami (PRO) 17%
Heraldo Muñoz (PPD) 14%
Jose Miguel Insulsa (PS) 4%
Carlos Montes (PS) 4%

FA and Communist Party (PC)
Daniel Jadue (PC) 44%
Pamela Jiles (PH, which is neither FA nor PC but whatever) 37%
Beatris Sanchez (ind) 15%

United opposition Primary }
Pamela Jiles (PH) 28%
Daniel Jadue (PC) 25%
Francisco Vidal (PPD) 11%
Ximena Rincón (DC) 8%
Beatriz Sanchez (ind) 8%
Heraldo Muñoz (PPD) 3%

[kaoras]

There's also a lot of runoff polling that I can be bothered to put.
The most interesting ones are:
Lavin 36%-Jiles 36%
Lavín 36%-Jadue 32%
Jadue 35%-Matthei 34%
Jiles 44%-Matthei 32%

Basically, Lavín and Jiles are more competitive in the general election but honestly is too early to do runoff polling.

Some commentary: Chile Vamos really shouldn't be in a 3-way tie in coalition intention, especially considering it is CADEM, but well, yeah, if you look outside the window it really isn't that hard to imagine. Lavin is also weak with the right primary electorate but he isn't doomed either. I still think Matthei ends up winning (also, JAK is running alone, that's almost sure)

Constituent Unity simply isn't going to have a name that polls well until they do actual campaigning. They should accept that fact. Vidal leads because as I said he is almost as prevalent on TV as Lavín and Jadue, but in a real primary is really uncertain who would win. Also, Ximena Rincón (from the leftist faction) seems poised to crush Alberto Undurraga (conservative faction) in the DC internal. Let's see if she doesn't abandon her positions as soon she is proclaimed like Carolina Goic.

In the FA+PC Beatris Sanchez is basically dead and leftists seem to prefer Jadue to Jiles. The thing is that Jiles also appeals to non-ideological voters which is a big advantage (Ironically Jadue would probably be more moderate in actual government)

[kaoras]

How is it possible that Matthei is leading in the primary poll? Do Chile Vamos voters want just to prove something or do they want to blow up their chances in the election?

I mean, Lavín doesn't seem to have any coherent principles. He literally labeled himself a social-democrat some months ago. I think you understand how well that went with the right. That very statement was what led to Matthei candidacy. Lavín is basically populist-posturing to a degree almost unfathomable to the right's base, and also talking a lot about doing a national unity government and consensus, etc. (although I don't believe for a second he would actually govern any more sanely than Piñera)

Speaking of Piñera, he decided to oppose the second withdrawal of the private pension funds and go to the Constitutional Tribunal to stop it (because it seems the government is destined to an even more spectacular defeat in Congress). But a lot of inflammatory rhetoric is coming from government ministers and if the withdrawal is stopped by the TC things could get very ugly really quickly.

[kaoras]

Yeah, Matthei is basically doomed. I would say that any rightist candidate is doomed tbh, including Lavin. This government is basically every day trying not to collapse upon itself.

Obviously knowing the Chilean Left is almost guaranteed to do their best to make the election competitive and sabotage each other, but even then I still cannot imagine the right winning a second term after all of this.

But this country is primed for a populist insurgent takeover. It could be Jiles, it could be some random dude who appears next year. I think the real question is if Chile is going full populism or the (serious) leftist parties will manage to achieve some semblance of coherence and put forward some kind of political project that could lead the country. I honestly would not put much stock on the latter.

[kaoras]

Tres Quintos (Chile's Fruna version of 538 _{Chileans will appreciate this joke}) released a base projection for the Constituent Convention election. It is based on 2017 parliamentary results and considers the current political alliances and the effects of social uprising.

Constituent Unity (DC-PPD-PS-PR-PRO) -Centre Left:  68 seats (66-75)
Chile Vamos (UDI-RN-EVO-PRI) - Right: 64 seats (60-70)
Chile Digno (PC-FRVS-IC-PI) - Left: 10 seats (8-15)
Frente Amplio (RD-PL-C-CS) -Left: 9 (8-15)
Republican Party - Far Right: 1 seat (0-3)
Humanist Party - Left: 1 seat (0-3)
Ecologist Party -Left: 1 seat (0-3)
No Neutrales - Center leftish independent list: 1 seat (0-3)

The left would get 90 seats, 14 short of the 2/3 majority they want. Tres Quintos does not give a vote share but claims that the left would get over 60% of the vote but just 56% of seats

I think this projection is fine considering the amount of info available at the moment, even if I think it overshoots the right as a whole but underestimates the Republican Party. Most likely the humanist and ecologist will join some alliance and I think there will be a fair share of independents, but that's impossible to project in advance.

More details (and district per district breakdown) here: https://tresquintos.cl/constituyentes2021/
 

[kaoras]

Primaries for mayoral and governor elections are this Saturday! And nobody cares! Honestly, we could be looking at like 2-3% participation among available voters and I'm being totally serious. Anything more than 5% would totally shock me.

Despite that, the parties are still going to use these results as leverage for negotiations for the next elections so here are the things worth checking:

• Comparison of turnout between the different primaries. Especially between FA and Constituent Unity (and especially in the Metropolitan Region)because it will inevitably affect deals for the municipal elections. FA already said that they expect less turnout in their primaries because they have weaker party machines, but if the difference is too noticeable or if they surpass Constituent Unity then it will have a great effect
• The balance of power within Constituen Unity, especially between PS and DC. Both of them expect to win between 4 or 6 regions. If PS clearly wins, then that could facilitate deals with the rest of the left. If the DC is the big winner then they could try to revive the Concertación and rule out deals with FA and the communist
• In the Right, in the mayoral primary in their ultra-rich stronghold of Vitacura is kinda a standoff between Matthei and Lavín. Matthei supports EVOPOLI candidate Camila Merino while Lavín supports UDI candidate Pablo Zalaquett

As for predictions, well, who knows, turnout is going to be so low it really depends on who has the best machine. The only contest I'm somewhat knowledgeable about is Los Ríos Constituent Unity's gubernatorial primary which I classify as Lean PS.

[kaoras]

Counting is almost done but some quick comments:

Pitiful Turnout as expected (I think is less than 5%?)

In Constituent Unity DC is having a very good night. Winning handily the Metropolitan Region and is going to get 6 candidates nominated (out of 16 regions). PS gets 4.

Frente Amplio is beating Constituent Unity in turnout in their stronghold of Valparaiso but is getting crushed everywhere else where they competed (especially in the Metropolitan Region, which I suspect is in no small part because of crossover vote for the DC in the wealthy municipalities where the right did mayoral primaries - they did not do primaries for governor there)  

The only 3-way contest in governors was Tarapacá, where Constituent Unity is beating the other alliances (and FA is almost tied with Chile Vamos...) In general, where Constituent Unity faced Chile Vamos they won (save for Los Rios, but hey, PS won there as I predicted) but is not a blowout or anything. Still, I would say that these are bad results for the right (for the state of their machines more exactly)

In Vitacura is still early (20%) but Camila Merino (Evopoli, backed by Matthei) is ahead with Zalaquet (UDI, endorsed by Lavin) in third place...

[kaoras]

Well, the dust has settled, so let's analyze the results.

Overall, turnout was like 2.5% in governors and 4% in mayoral. So, what I expected lol. Still, even then not all these results can be explained by machines.

Constituent Unity

The winners in each region ordered from North to South.
https://twitter.com/WilsonFoncad/status/1333184599602700288
Is missing that the Independent in Atacama was endorsed by the DC. So overall it would be: DC 7, PS 5.5- PPD 2.5, PRO 1. Big win for the DC, taking the biggest price: The Metropolitan Region (Margin inflated by crossover vote by the right's primaries, but would have still won without that).
PS almost match them in the number of wins, but in smaller regions, mostly in the south. PPD I think is on the way to becoming the new PR.

Overall the coalition won in turnout in every region of the country where there were multiple primaries, save for Los Ríos (Chile Vamos) and Valparaiso (Frente Amplio).

Chile Vamos

Literally, no one won. RN crushed UDI in governors going 5 out of 7 regions (UDI got 2) but did badly in mayors (losing Vitacura and all the other fancy prices) and the dissidence to the current directive is calling for anticipated internal elections again.  At least Evopoli is pleased with their results, especially in Vitacura.

Overall I would say that the results are low-key awful for the right. They got beaten by Constituent Unity almost everywhere and tied with FA in Tarapacá in governors which is the second most right-wing region of the country. This does not bode well for the upcoming elections.

Frente Amplio

Is awfully clear that FA isn't becoming the biggest left wing force in the country any time soon and probably never. Revolución Democratica, until now clearly the biggest party, was the big loser, they did decently in mayors but only won one region (out of 4) and lost in the Metropolitan Region to the more leftwing Comunes (who won 2 regions). The Liberal Party did well in vote share but didn't won anything. The coalition continues to show strength in Valparaíso which until not so long was a right-leaning region.

Main Takeways:

Left Unity is dead: It was never alive, to begin with, but with Constituent Unity turning to the centre with the strength of the DC and FA doing the same but leftwards with the victory of Comunes.
Is clear now that FA is going to form a "left pole" with the Communist Party. This is, and will continue to cause an internal crisis. 2 deputies left RD today over this seemingly inevitable course and PL seems ready to ditch them (they are going to evaluate their continuity in the coalition tomorrow) (maybe joining Constituent Unity?).

The Concertación is Back: Constituent Unity most likely will become a full-fledged coalition instead of this weird electoral pact that currently is. DC is delighted, PS doesn't seem very comfortable but has basically reached the conclusion that FA cannot be trusted and will probably just roll with it. Everyone else really doesn't have the strength to choose.

The Right should be very worried: Until now they have been banking on the left wing chaos to remain in power. These results aren't worth much with so low turnout, but they seem to indicate that they will likely end up beaten by Constituent Unity anyway. Maybe they could fearmonger their way up to a third of the seats in the Constituent Convention but it could be a bloodbath in the municipal. Several polls have Lavín tied with Jiles in second place behind Jadue and coalition identification polling is showing them 3 way tied with UC and FA which is terrible for them.

[kaoras]

How the f**k is DC surging back to relevance now, of all times? From everything I've seen, they are an utterly useless moderate-hero party that stands up for nothing but the (increasingly hated) status quo. They seem like the last party that would benefit from this political climate.

Well, in this election in particular everyone, including me, underestimated the state of the DC's machine. PS and PPD only coordinated in Valparaíso (where they won) because they assumed the DC had declined more or less to their level. They were wrong. If they (and some other progressive parties) had united in the Metropolitan Region they could have argued that DC triumph happened only because of the rightist vote and would have won in several other places like Bio-Bio.

More generally, is basically FA's fault. PS, in particular, has tried hard to avoid a new Concertación because they hated DC's unloyalty under Bachelet's government but FA itself is too chaotic to reach agreements and many elements within them don't want leftist unity. Constituent Unity exists basically because FA went to inscribe their primaries when they were still negotiating unity primaries among all the left. Chile Vamos has the presidency of the Chamber of deputies because FA couldn't keep their ranks in line and the most recent attempt to regain control failed because of former FA members (Pamela Jiles among them ironically). All of this has pushed PS to an alliance with DC again. And at this point is hard to blame them. Some weeks ago I talked to my mom (a lifelong communist) about the possibility of PS allying with FA instead of DC and she said "Why? they are a fraud too". Honestly, I can not stress enough how much the center-left base (the ones who still voted New Majority in 2017) hates, hates, the FA, me included.

[kaoras]

I noticed this is how the Unidad Constituyente logo looks like:



Does the pinwheel have any sort of special meaning in Chile or are they just trying to make themselves look more left wing by copying the old Juntos Podemos Más logo?

I doubt anyone outside geeks like us remembers the Juntos Podemos logo or Juntos Podemos very existence. . The pinwheel is probably just that a graphic designer got lazy and copied it.

The colour choice is extremely weird to me though because they are usually represented in maps as red or as some shade of orange. (But well, New Majority logo was blue so...)

[kaoras]

This is either Juntos Podemos Más or the Google Photos logo in blue tones

Regarding the DC folks, I honestly believed they were on the track to disappear. Either it's their merit or the fault of their adversaries and the Chilean left, good for them What kind of constituency represrnts that old party nowadays?

Well, since they are very old they have a fair amount of party loyalists (though they have a lot more problem keeping that base than the eternally stable PS). They tend to attract moderate voters who dislike the right but they have struggled a lot with that over the years. I know exactly one person that voted DC in 2017 for reasons outside family connections and was basically because he liked Carolina Goic. And that's a big reason why they remain relevant. Politics in Chile are a lot more personality-based than this thread seems to imply.

For example, I know for sure that PS has a better machine in Los Lagos, but the PS candidate there was a nobody while the DC one was a former well-known congressman. They still have plenty of people with a personal appeal all over the country, and due to history and family tradition, they (much like PS) are still able to attract some fresh faces and good quality candidates that keep them alive.

For the record, I still think that the DC long-term prospects don't look good but they still have a base to work with.

[kaoras]

It's official, the Liberal Party (PL) has left the Frente Amplio. It seems extremely likely that they will join Unidad Constituyente.

FA has had a very turbulent life with many fusions and parties leaving, the main ones Partido Igualdad (PI), Humanista (PH) (which BTW is now basically Pamela Jiles personal vehicle since all the historic leaders left) and Ecologista (PEV) leaving last year after the constitutional accord. They have only attracted Unir and Fuerza Común since then, both funded by ex-PS members that must be feeling pretty stupid right now.


In more news. Unidad Constituyente will do non-binding "conventional" primaries (organized by the parties) in 85 comunas on December 20th for the mayoral elections. PS is still pushing for some primaries among all the left including FA and the Communist Party (PC), but negotiations are still ongoing. FA and Chile Digno (the new PC coalition including the regionalist party FREVS and many small leftist movements) have also reached an accord to some in some regions for governor elections and will negotiate together the possibility of doing primaries with Unidad Constituyente in some municipalities.

[kaoras]

UDD Opinion poll for the Gubernatorial election in Santiago (Región Metropolitana).

Escenario 1

Claudio Orrego (DC) 17%
Karina Oliva (FA) 10%
Hernán Larraín (EVOPOLI) 8%
Pablo Maltés (PH) 4%

Escenario 2

Claudio Orrego (DC) 18%
Karina Oliva (FA) 11%
Cristián Labbe Martínez (UDI) 8%
Pablo Maltés (PH) 4%.

There's other scenario with a doctor that became famous because of the pandemic, but that I would say that is almost troll polling. If no candidate reaches 40%, there's a runoff between the top 2.

This looks awful for Chile Vamos but their candidates really don't have much name recognition yet, so the only way is up. This is why this poll isn't that good for Orrego either, he is by far the most well known of all candidates and still is only at 17-18%. But overall this should be read as another sign of weakness for the right.

BTW, Pablo Maltés is the couple of Pamela Jiles and Cristian Labbe Martínez is the son of Cristián Labbe Galilea, ex secret police agent during the dictatorship who is now in jail for torture. Lovely that the right ran out of human right abusers and now is running their sons.

[kaoras]

Well, there's been A LOT of news but I haven't had time to cover it. I will update later but for now the most noteworthy regarding the upcoming constituent elections is that the reserved seats for indigenous peoples were finally approved.

There will be 17 seats: 7 for the Mapuche, 2 for Aymara, and 1 Diaguita, 1 Colla, 1 Atacameño, 1 Quechua, 1 Yagán, 1 Kaweskar, 1 Chango and 1 Rapa Nui.

These seats will be taken from the original 155 seats and the electoral service will have the adjust the districts' size to make room for them according to the following criteria: Seats must be taken from the districts that have most of the indigenous population of each indigenous people, their size can't be reduced by more than 1 seat and the district can't drop below 3 seats. (Those conditions are totally incompatible with each other BTW, because many of them are concentrated in the extreme regions with only 3 seats, so, good luck with that SERVEL!)

This could actually lead to fairer district sizes. Currently, they are designated in such a way that left-leaning districts have uneven number of seats and right-leaning districts have an even number, so in the case of a close election, the left will get the upper hand. (This worked mostly as intended in 2017)

The electoral system will be nationwide Single Non Transferable vote (corrected afterwards to achieve gender parity) and there will be a special electoral roll with CONADI and other state's services data (like people with "evident" indigenous last names). If people don't appear in that roll they can make a petition to the electoral service to vote in the indigenous roll.
 

[kaoras]

Oof for Chile, Single non transferrable vote is one of the worst election systems out there Basically plurinominal FPTP.

It will be only for the indigenous seats. The rest will still be Open List PR (which is another kind of mess). And honestly, Chile used to have the binominal system which must be THE worst electoral system ever designed so we literally had nowhere to go but up when they made the electoral reform. (But I still dream of Mixed Member Proportional)

[kaoras]

Yesterday Unidad Constituyente did "conventional" primaries (organized by themselves, not by the Electoral Service) for mayoral elections in 73 comunas. 100k people voted, which is double what they expected. (but these were 100% machine's election)

The Christian Democrats were once again the big winners winning more than half of the comunas they disputed (28/53). Full results are:

Democracia Cristiana (DC): 28
Partido Socialista (PS): 17
Partido Radical (PR): 13
Partido Por la Democracia (PPD): 10
Independent: 3
Partido Progresista (PRO): 2

Comments: The DC has been acting like insufferable jerks since the gubernatorial primaries and these results aren't going to help in that regard. I just hope they don't jeopardize omission deals with the rest of the left.

PS results are meh (they expected between 10-20 because most of their strong zones were already secured by the party in negotiations). PS had grown used to being the biggest party of the left these last few years, which is why they desperately tried to avoid another coalition with the DC (because without them they are the big dudes). In fact, they are still trying, they want to create a new political coalition with the Liberal Party (PL), PPD-PR, and former RD members without the DC, but at the same time keeping Unidad Constituyente as an alliance for purely electoral purposes (Don't worry, I don't get it either).

PPD machine really is on life support if they are being beaten by the radicals of all people. That is like, getting beaten by the French radicals.

Frente Amplio participated in 3 primaries and lost badly in all

[kaoras]

The presidential race is on fire:

Chile Vamos:
-Joaquin Lavin (UDI) still best positioned in the polls but has fallen somewhat recently. Still unclear if it will run for re-election as mayor of Las Condes
-Evelyn Matthei (UDI) still best positioned in the right's primary polls. She WILL run for re-election as mayor of Providencia in April. That would be very interesting because there is a non-0 chance she could lose which would likely end her candidacy before the primary in July
-Mario Desbordes (RN). Left Piñera's Cabinet recently (Piñera pushed potential candidates to resign). Could be proclaimed by PRI as their candidate soon. Its main selling point is that he was one of the few on the right that didn't behave like a headless chicken during the social uprising.
-Sebastian Sichel (Ind). Ex-DC, Ex-Ciudadanos, also had to resign from the State Bank direction recently along with Desbordes. He literally invented a polling firm to show that "he polls well". Chile Vamos parties have said that they will allow him to compete in their primary

Jose Antonio Kast will run again with his Republican party but is almost sure that he won't participate in a primary with Chile Vamos.

On the Left (oh boy)

On the Christian Democrats (DC): Alberto Undurraga (former minister, rightist faction) and Ximena Rincón (senator, leftist faction) will face each other in an internal primary on January 17th.

Partido Radical (PR): They proclaimed their president Carlos Maldonado as their candidate for a center-left primary, he will go absolutely nowhere.

Partido por la Democracia (PPD): They will do an internal primary on January 31st between party president Heraldo Muñoz, party vice-president Francisco Vidal and ex-deputy Jorge Tarud. The real battle is between Muñoz and Vidal. Muñoz has more support within the party but Vidal is more popular among the public (well, by center-left candidates' standards). Machine boss Guido Girardi could easily tip the balance for one or another.  

Partido Socialista (PS): They really want to have a candidate, and they really want that candidate to not be former OAS secretary Jose Miguel Insulsa (only one in the party that seems to actually want to run). Deputies are asking party president and former minister Alvaro Elizalde to run. I think he might cave if only to not be stuck with Insulsa (they said that they will do an internal primary before January 31th)

Frente Amplio (FA) : Is still unknown if Beatriz Sanches will run again. She has been totally unable to remain in the public eye during this government despite being the coalition's spokeswoman. Deputy and ex-PS Marcelo Diaz has said he is running.

Partido Comunista (PC): They will run Daniel Jadue, no doubt. He is at the top of the polls along with Pamela Jiles (but Jadue is more popular among leftist)

Is very likely that FA and PC will do a Primary together. In the Centre-left parties, the situation is still unclear

Partido Humanista (PH): Pamela Jiles is clearly running, riding high in the populist wave. PH is now Jiles personal vehicle after completing the hostile takeover this year. Most likely she will go to the first round directly.

[kaoras]

Servel released the new distribution of seats per district. They didn't think particularly hard about it and just slashed one seat to the 17 districts with the highest % of indigenous population that had more than 3 seats. Here it is

https://twitter.com/kennethbunker/status/1342869469337694209

Now on the coalition game:

FA and the Communist Party (PC) reached an alliance for governors election and a general alliance for constituent and the municipal election is imminent (with cringy twitter drama included). This is being called the "left pole" and includes some small movements allied with PC.

More to the left, the Ecologist Party will run alone while the PH has a new coalition called Diginad Ahora (Dignity Now) with former FA members like Partido Igualdad and small movements.

There are also a lot of independent candidatures and lists (the most notorious ones are left-ish) and small hardcore tankie parties like Unión Patriotica. Is unclear how many of them will make it to the ballot, the deadline is January 11th.

On the centre-left, PS seem to be kinda serious in their attempt to form a "social democratic pole" with the PPD-PR-PL-PRO and ex FA members, excluding the DC. DC said they don't care as long as is done inside Unidad Constituyene, but PS intent seems to be to create a political coalition without the DC and rendering Unidad Constituyente to a mere electoral pact of convenience.

Speaking of PS, a group of members are pushing for former Bachelet's spokeswoman Paula Narvaez to be their presidential candidate, claiming that she is heir to Bachelet legacy. PS is so desperate that if she accepts I think they will just roll with her. She is a way better option than Alvaro Elizalde, that's for sure.

[kaoras]

Cadem Poll for primaries on the Right/Chile Vamos. Relevant numbers are in purple (people who actually intend to vote in that primary)



I absolutely refuse to believe that Sichel suddenly got that popular overnight among the right base. I'm honestly perplexed considering he barely registers in the general polls. Maybe he will crash and burn a la Golborne but I guess we will have to keep an eye on him. In any case, Evelyn Matthei still leads in the most likely scenario and Lavin is really weak among the base. Jose Antonio Kast, in the very unlikely scenario where he runs in the Chile Vamos primary, at best would serve as a spoiler to Matthei.

[kaoras]

Speaking of PS, a group of members are pushing for former Bachelet's spokeswoman Paula Narvaez to be their presidential candidate, claiming that she is heir to Bachelet legacy. PS is so desperate that if she accepts I think they will just roll with her. She is a way better option than Alvaro Elizalde, that's for sure.

Well, speaking of that, guess who signed that petition... Michelle Bachelet herself. That is huuuge. Considering how uninterested (and unpopular) Elizalde is and how much resistance exists to Insulza, Bachelet endorsement basically assures that Paula Narvaez is going to be the PS candidate. Bachelet is the only ex-president and major figure of the centre-left that remains popular among leftist, if she starts supporting Narvaez more publicly then Narvaez could really start taking off in the centre-left primary polls.