Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[Estrella]

I noticed this is how the Unidad Constituyente logo looks like:



Does the pinwheel have any sort of special meaning in Chile or are they just trying to make themselves look more left wing by copying the old Juntos Podemos Más logo?

[Estrella]

Will there be any restrictions on who is allowed to contest Indigenous seats (like, only independents or community organizations) or will "national" parties be able to take part too? If it's the latter, do you have an idea who the seats could go to?

[Estrella]

The Unity list between Chile Vamos and Republicanos in 8 districts was approved by RN and Evopoli. Republicanos will compete with 10 candidates. I'm not sure if in the other districts they are still going to run separately. In any case, a clear contrast with the absolute chaos of the left. They honestly deserve everything they get.

Would that present an opening for Ciudadanos/Sentido Futuro/Amplitud/whatever they're calling themselves today?

[Estrella]

This is an older post, but I couldn't help noticing something:

Partido de los Trabajadores Revolucionarios (PTR- Workers Revolutionary Party): Hilariously high-income Trotskyists, literally rich blonde guys role-playing as revolutionaries.

How strong is the correlation between race (if that's the correct word for it) and income in Chile? Like, is there a significant number of "visibly indigenous" middle class people or "white trash"?

[Estrella]

The delay of the elections is finally official. The new date is May 15-16th. The new electoral schedule ends up like this:

Constituent, municipal and gubernatorial elections: May 15-16th
Runoff for gubernatorial elections: June 13th.
Presidential Primary: July 18th
Presidential and Paliamentary elections: November 21th (no change)
Presidential Runoff: December 19th (no change)

Obviously a bureaucratic clusterf/ck is preferable to keeping Piñera in office a day longer than necessary, but it would be much better if the general election took place under a new constitution. I wonder what happens if there is, say, a change to the number of deputies elected or, more seriously, to the role of President; will those only apply to their successors?

[Estrella]

Very cyberpunk vibes here

https://twitter.com/sebastianpinera/status/1382085922196443139

Neuroderechos?

The concern that artificial intelligence may allow the human brain to be interfered with in the not too distant future to insert or change thoughts or behaviors led to a constitutional reform and a bill to protect the privacy of mental data being submitted to the Chilean legislature last October.

"The constitutional reform is to establish the integrity of the human brain and that no one can intervene in it or violate its autonomy, because the mind is the space where the freedom and free will of human beings resides," explains Senator Guido Girardi, president of the Senate's Future Challenges Commission.

Girardi, who has been at the forefront of the initiative from the beginning, points out that the novel bill contemplates giving mental data the same status as organs in order to prevent anyone from trafficking them. In this way, it seeks to establish the so-called neuro-rights as a new category of human rights, a goal shared by members of Chilean academia.

[Estrella]

This isn't related to the elections, but it's still mildly interesting: if I had a nickel for every time a company called Penta got involved in a scandal involving financial fraud and funneling money to politicians, especially those with connections to a former dictatorship... I'd have two nickels. Which isn't a lot, but it's weird that it happened twice - both in Chile and in Slovakia. It's not even the same company, just two unrelated ones on opposite sides of the globe that happen to be in the same business and have the same name.

[Estrella]

I see that a Republican is getting 30% in the race for mayor of Las Condes. Is that just local protest vote (I assume it's a place where UDI have been in power since forever), or is it indicative of something re: the kind of people who live there?

[Estrella]

Piñera's press conference is bordering on absurd. He's acting as if the whole thing (including gender parity and Indigenous seats) was his idea and basically saying that it's going to be a wake-up call for the government, but immediately segueing into some fluffy hogwash about hopes of the future generations and such. Given the history of Chilean right, I guess seeing him patting himself on the back about how amazing and caring he is was the best possible outcome, but even those five minutes were enough to make me repulsed by him: he had one opportunity to show a sign of humility, and he went and did this.

[Estrella]

Ok so uh, given the results, should I worry about Chile becoming a Bolivarian Republic of some sort and West Venezuela in a couple of years? (Given the left holds a 2/3 supermajority)

Or is the Chilean left not a danger in that way?

In some ways, Chile is arguably the most "European" Latin American country, and this includes the facts that 1) it has a strong civil society that you can't just stomp on like Chávez did, 2) it has a well-developed, diverse economy that would be hard to sink even if you tried, not least because Codelco ≠ PDVSA, 3) the vast majority of insane anti-democratic people are found on the far-right. And don't forget that this two-thirds majority includes people like Christian Democrats.

Really, this feels like being in 1980s Spain and asking if the country is going to turn into Soviet Union after the González landslide(s).

[Estrella]

Others here are commenting that Chile is not about to turn into a communist state, and they're right. But the results are still disastrous. Even if the Chilean Left will not be able to fully transform the society, it's a reality that the communists now have real influence and power, and that other left wing groups do as well. Changes, such as a gender parity mandate or an indigenous seats mandate, as well as anti-capitalist changes in the fundamental economic structures, should be expected. The country isn't about to turn into another Venezuela -- but it is a realistic expectation for it to become another Argentina.

This sentence is like the opposite of "arson, murder and jaywalking" Though I'm pretty sure there are people who would be equally incensed by a relatively minor change to the electoral system as by a radical restructuring of national economy. Putting these two on the same level speaks volumes about what American conservatives care about the most, and it's not the economy.

[Estrella]

Someone who may be dropping out for real is Ximena Rincón, up until now the definitive DC candidate. Not 100% sure what’s the deal with that because I don’t think she/her team have been very clear, but DC might replace her (with Yasna Provoste on the basis of one poll?).

Totally on par for the course for Chilean Politics. One of the many reasons they have fallen so low. Also is a Cadem poll, they projected 56 seats for Chile Vamos!

Surely she can't be that bad. What's the worst thing she could've done?

*googles name* *starts reading wikipedia article*

... oh.

[Estrella]

An oversimplified rundown of the Chile Vamos primary debate, going by articles on Pauta, Bío Bío and such places:

Joaquin Lavín (UDI) — the state should be "stronger and more relevant, in the style of European social democracies" [bangs head on wall], "move from a market economy to one with more state presence", pendrives help stop drug trafficking [what], boo gay marriage, boo abortion, boo Provoste, yay Claudio Orrego, yay Kast, sort of, "governments of left or right no longer serve Chile" [eyeroll], spoke in Mapudungun for like one sentence, boo weed, one time some random person called him, addressed him as "Don Joaquín" and asked him to tell their son to stop smoking weed [chinny reckon].

Mario Desbordes (RN, PRI) — cut VAT, basically agrees with Lavín on everything, I totally pinky promise I want same sex marriage but many people oppose it so we should listen to them.

Ignacio Briones (Evópoli) — cut tax deductions, legalize weed, refusing to marry a same sex couple is like kicking them out of a restaurant actually.

Sebastián Sichel (independent) — Efficiency™, Centrism™, Moderation™, Unicorns and Fluffy Bunnies™, at least he didn't bring up Macron, thank god.

tl;dr a waste of time

[Estrella]

Talking about small right-wing parties, what sorts of people voted for Frafra in 1989, José Piñera in 1993 and Parisi in 2013? I know that they were basically right-leaning populists (though not sure about Piñera), but I mean demographically.

[Estrella]

Now it is the 48th anniversary of the coup d'etat against Salvador Allende in 1973, and of course the main Chilean newspapers and TV stations are having special coverage on the twin tower attacks. The good news is that La Red tv stations broke the censorship pact of the main tv channels and showed the documentary "La Batalla de Chile", with record-breaking ratings for the station. La Red in the last year has positioned itself as a left-wing channel, a first in Chile where you can reasonably argue that all tv stations are right-leaning, a move that has resulted in harassment from Piñera's Government.

The main presidential candidates made several statements.
Yasna Provoste said:

"Never again human rights violations in Chile, neither before nor now. May the political and social unity of the people never be broken again. (...) My tribute to the memory of President Allende".

Boric:

At the Museum of Memory we remember President Salvador Allende and the Chilean people. Without memory there is no future. Truth, justice and reparation to the victims of human rights violations

Sichel:

Chileans want the future to be much better than the present and that we do not stay stuck in the past. It depends on everyone

Kast hasn't said anything

Also, I want to congratulate the Chilean Right for their astounding advances on human rights. They are truly fully reformed since the Pinochet era. They went from being responsible for murder, torture, sexual violence and arbitrary detentions during Pinochet to ... eh, being responsible for excessive or unnecessary use of force that led to arbitrary deprivation of life and injuries, torture and illtreatment, sexual violence, and arbitrary detentions during Piñera.

As if the Chilean Left did not regularly and egregiously abuse human rights under Allende, and as if the Chilean Left has not continued to do so today in the 2019 protests.

Incompetence in government and arson on the streets are bad, but comparing them to tens of thousands of cases of torture and murder is... interesting. And by interesting, I mean that it's being an ideological hack to the point of denying reality. I bet that you wouldn't like it if someone started defending the state of today's Venezuela by saying "well, thirty years ago the right violated human rights by wasting oil money and they're still violating them by protesting today", would you?

[Estrella]

October 5th used to be an important day for the old Concertación, they used to have acts every year with all their presidents. Since a few years ago I think they haven't done anything. Everything related to the transition is nowadays seen in a much more negative light, which I think is sad to some extent. Lot of people worked hard for the NO victory and their struggle shouldn't be forgotten, even if the very same people nowadays said that "La Alegría nunca llegó" (the happiness never came, a reference to the famous No jingle)

Why is it seen badly now? The Chilean transition, in my opinion, was a very good one and very orderly, like the Spanish one. I have to disagree with those who say that the "Alegria nunca llégo", because Chile, despite its current problems and because every single country has its own issues, is still one of the richest countries in South America, has a very good standard of living and strong institutions. Many countries in Central and South America would dream to be like Chile, IMO.

Obviously I'm not from Chile so I'm not really qualified to comment on this, but IMO that's exactly why this is a problem. A country this rich should not have people this poor.

[Estrella]

This question is kinda off topic and I expect the answer to be "nobody cares" because of how all-consuming the ghosts of Allende and Pinochet are, but how are various pre-1970 presidents generally perceived?

[Estrella]

So a recent poll shows Kast and Boric tied in the second round. Boric is most likely going to win this but the very fact it exists is depressing.

I think Kast is actually the favorite. He keeps a nonstop growing trend, who knows how much he can reach?

Chile unfortunately is succumbing to the more populist and “anti-establishment” option after the protests. But oh well, at least the new leftist constitution change will be worth it.

Kast isn't the one who wants to destroy the Chilean economic system. In a Kast vs Boric runoff Kast is closer to the status quo than Boric.

If status quo means 4chan-esque wet dreams about putting leftists (and women, gay people, irreligious people, or anyone who doesn't like working >45 hours a week only to barely scrape by) in their place, except masquerading as a serious political platform, all bound together by some cursed bastard child of Hayek and the Bible, you're certainly correct.

[Estrella]

Every latin american election always somehow ends up as a contest between far-right and far-left.

Nope, Argentina has never had a far-left of far-right candidate getting the first or second place, other than Perón's third term and afaik that he was deep into conspiracies, murder plots, and that his closest ally was the leader of a far right paramilitary group were all hidden from most people before the election

And then there's Uruguay, Mexico, Costa Rica, Brazil before Bolsonaro, Chile until this election, Ecuador's leaders may've mostly been corrupt sh*theads but they weren't anywhere near the far left or far right other than for purely opportunistic reasons

Enjoy while you can.

And you say it yourselves, Brazil before Bolsonaro, Chile until this election. In Mexico, US media called AMLO a communist as well, and his opponent might be quite far-right as well during the next election.

AMLO is Mexican Jimmy Carter in terms of his small "c" conservative fiscal policy.

What?

Bloomberg: Lopez Obrador Is Making Mexico’s Tragedy Worse

The inadequacy of Mexico’s pandemic response should be kept in some perspective, considering the failures of other countries to contain the virus. Less defensible is Lopez Obrador’s handling of the economy. Unlike the leaders of most major economies, he has rebuffed calls for aggressive fiscal stimulus to support workers and businesses. The government’s spending commitments amount to about 3% of GDP — one-third what G-20 countries as a whole are spending — and much of it is money repurposed from other programs. The funds are being doled out as microloans to small businesses, up to a maximum of just $25,000 pesos ($1,150), which most have already exhausted. Larger companies in the formal economy, which employs some 40% of Mexico’s labor force, have received no government assistance.

[Estrella]

La Araucanía: Kast 43%, Parisi 11%, Sichel 11%, together 65%.

Argentina please invade.

[Estrella]

I will give my thoughts tomorrow I think. But Parisi capitalized the populist discontent that the leftist independents capitalized in the Constituent elections.

Also, I wouldn't count PDG as right, those guys are anyone guess how they will behave.

Let me give this straight, whether it’s comfortable or not: the left everywhere needs to go back to its roots and abandon “woke”. The results in the North of Chile are just another evidence of that in another country.

Wrong. The North isn't West Virginia.

Parisi and Errazuriz have 2 things in common. First of all, they had strength in the Norte Grande (the regions I keep mentioning) but limited success in the Norte Chico (Atacama and Coquimbo). Historically all of northern Chile has been THE left win stronghold thanks to the mining tradicions that saw the birth of the worker's movement and the left itself. Since the return of democracy, the left has had a huge underlying problem with the north, not because the mines are gone, but because the miners are now absurdly rich. To give you an idea, right now the unions of CODELCO are threatening strike after rejecting a proposal of 31 thousand dollars in additional benefits per worker. No tradition can withstand that amount of money long term. Tarapacá shift happened under the dictatorship and now is one of the most right-wing areas of the countries (likely helped by Pinochet policies like a free tax area for commerce in Iquique). Antofagasta was clearly showings signs of malaise by 2013 and the bottom fell for the left in 2017 in all the north, even in the Norte Chico that had been more stubbornly left wing. Now, the plebiscite and the elections in May are showing that 2017 might have been a fluke, but we will have to see in November.

Economic left-wing agenda + Anti-immigration position + Less academic rhetoric and personal presentation are key into getting those populist voters in the North who definitely are not Right-wing, but still didn’t vote for the left in this round. You gotta connect with the working class masses in order to win, not with progressive city “elites”.

Please, I beg you, take one look at the results. Chilean elite votes overwhelmingly for the right. The working class, however defined (and defining who exactly is working class in 2021 is a big problem) generally votes for the left. Parisi did as well as he did because he's an anti-political independent. Concertación dinosaurs or left-wing activists would never pull that off, no matter how loudly they would bellow about kicking out the Venezuelans. Again, this isn't America.



Take a guess where Kast does best. It's not the reddest areas, I can tell you that much.

[Estrella]

Big Ernst Thalmann energy here:

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1462608058899644419

Good, associating with the upscale left in Chile most likely caused a depressing effect on PC. Boric’s awful campaigning depressed the entire working class to lead to this.

The upscale left and the useful idiots in the PC ruined a once in a lifetime opportunity by doing the same mistakes as what was done in 1968 France, abort the revolution led by their own union in hopes that electoralism would help their @$$es. Unlike then, there was no overarching Soviet Union that made them do it and—most importantly—Jadue could have won this election had he been more aggressive and gone for owning the rich instead of kowtowing towards the unpopular front/diet electoralism nonsense.

This is hilarious on so many levels, not least that 1) "abort the revolution" as if Chile was 1910s Russia, 2) "upscale left" - PSOL, meet Red Velvet, Red Velvet, meet PSOL, 3) there's actually a second round and you have to win that too, 4) I'm not sure whatever alternative to electoralism would be less unpopular, 5) Boric's campaign was for from perfect, but I don't think Jadue or Artés or whoever could get out the working-class vote (as I said in a previous post, what does it even mean to be working class today?) any better.

Another fun-filled day at the Cult of the Ice Axe!

[Estrella]

If only Tulio Triviño were here to give his thoughts.

https://twitter.com/TuIioTrivino/status/1470616778027851776

[Estrella]

I was in the mood for something masochist, so I decided to watch the franjas for the second round. Obviously both candidates want to appeal to people who are hesitant about voting for them, but it's amusing how desperately they are doing it.

Kast wants to present himself as nice tolerant uncle José who definitely pinky promise isn't a far-right wacko, and so he decided he's going to out-fluff Boric. The ads feature a gay couple who run a hair salon (yes, a Kast ad really contains the phrase "salir de closet no era fácil") who praise Kast for being a good democrat who is going to respect the same-sex marriage law and say they vote for him because Muh Small Business, followed by uncle José monologuing in a garden about tolerance as emotional music plays in the background. Then there is a cheesy pop montage of Kast rallies, with periodic reminders that layer more sheep's clothing on the wolf: someone waving a rainbow flag, Kast wearing Mapuche clothing or posing with a black guy.

Boric, for his part, decided to go after the old concertacionista vote, literally: a birthday party for a hundred and something years old abuela, where she and her similarly-aged friends talk about AFP and dignified pensions. Then there's a montage of people sitting behind what I assume is supposed to be the presidential desk, each saying their designated Nice Guy FF talking point about reactivating the economy, governing with a big heart and such. Somehow there's even less substance to it than there's to Kast ads.

[Estrella]

Judging by the scenes on TV right now, I assume Chile doesn't have a "you can still vote after the polls have closed if you're in line" rule, right?