Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[H. Ross Peron]

Seems to me anime became mainstream in Latin America and perhaps some parts Continental Europe (such as Italy or Spain) before the Anglosphere, though I would say a lot of anime (especially shows like One Piece or Pokemon) are mainstream for Americans under 30 nowadays.

[H. Ross Peron]

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1394425420188114945

[H. Ross Peron]

How would a centre-left social democrat who is strongly in favour of an expanded welfare state but not necessarily enamoured of cultural radicalism or strong left-wing rhetoric vote in the upcoming Presidential election?

[H. Ross Peron]

Was the original understanding that Narvaez would be the only candidate for the former Concertacion parties?

[H. Ross Peron]

Was the original understanding that Narvaez would be the only candidate for the former Concertacion parties?

No, the original understanding was doing legal primaries, parallel to those of Apruebo Dignidad and Chile Vamos. Those would be between Narvaez, Heraldo Muñoz (PPD), Maldonado, Pablo Vidal (PL) and Ximena Rincón from the DC.

This all went to *** when PS tried to join the Apruebo Dignidad primary, Vidal and Muñoz backed down in favour of Narvaez who was supposed to represent them in the primary against Boric and Jadue. PC didn't want the PPD so this accord collapsed at the last minute and no legal primary was held.

DC also had tried to withdraw Ximena Rincón candidacy in favor of Provoste because she polled better according to one CADEM poll. She ended withdrawing but Provoste took until today to announce her candidacy.

Keep in mind this whole saga was very messy, so there are a lot of details and nuances lost there. There's quite a bit about this on this thread though.

Thanks for your explanation. I've been reading this thread on and off for a while but sometimes lose track of events if I haven't seen the previous posts in a while.

[H. Ross Peron]

It's funny the right is running as "Chile Podemos+"

[H. Ross Peron]

Interesting. So if Provost can gain from the "hidden" center-left old base, wouldn't that hurt Boric? I assume his electorate is more from younger voters, 18-29 and 29-40, and because since the end of mandatory voting in Chile, turnout has fallen a lot to around 40-50%, probably mainly from younger age voters.

(If my assumption that young voters vote leftwing in Chile is right, as there are countries were the situation is the complete opposite.)

Not really, if anything younger voters have been voting more since the introductión of voluntary voting since that also brought automatic inscription in the electoral rolls. In fact in the plebiscite and the Constituent elections, younger voters had a higher turnout than those of 60+, exacerbated by the pandemic fears among elders.

And yes, younger voters tend to favor the left, the FA type, center left is very weak among them.

Im guessing the right is also very unpopular with youths? Are there any age differences between mainstream conservatives and Kast supporters?

[H. Ross Peron]

Does Kast have a younger support base than Sichel? Curious what sort of voters are moving to the far-right. I'm imagining upscale, younger urbanites vs say rural elderly for Sichel.

[H. Ross Peron]

I don’t recall Sichel ever receiving any sort of major scrutiny during the primaries, am I wrong?

Not really. The press mostly focussed on his life story and Lavín was too busy attacking Jadue (lmao). Only Desbordes attacked him, but nobody was paying much attention to Desbordes. This could also be a problem for JAK going forwards, his platform has many insane bits, including a literal Operación Condor 2.0 agains "leftist extremists". Considering that the standard format of the debates in Chile is the journalists grilling the candidates, is very likely that his more extremist views come to the spotlight again.

So Kast's actually running on the "helicopter" meme that far-right individuals in the US and elsewhere constantly fantasize about. JFC.

[H. Ross Peron]

Sichel is the Chilean Armin Laschet.

[H. Ross Peron]

That's why the right is so dangerous, they are still totally in denial about the social tensions in this country and if they keep governing Chile is going to tear itself apart. As Atria said, this government has blamed even Kpop before assuming any kind of responsability

This sounds hilarious.

[H. Ross Peron]

This question is kinda off topic and I expect the answer to be "nobody cares" because of how all-consuming the ghosts of Allende and Pinochet are, but how are various pre-1970 presidents generally perceived?

From the presidents from 1932 onwards onwards:

Arturo Alessandri Palma (1920-1925 and 1932-1938): Better known for first government, he was a reformist and clashed constantly with Congress and the parliamentary oligarchy, who refused to pass his social laws (such as 8 hours workday, legalization of unions, etc.). He is mostly remembered for these laws and the new constitution of 1925, which ended up passing after a military intervention that started the chaotic period of 1925-1932. His second government is mostly remembered for having brought order after that mess and for bringing the military back in line. He was clearly right-wing on this time and has some incidents of bloody repression such as the Masacre de Ranquil (Right-wing traditions have deep roots you see). Overall, positive image.

The Radical Governments (1938-1952) are overall fairly well regarded for their economic policies and social advances.

Pedro Aguirre Cerda (1938-1941): One of the most fondly remembered presidents. Famous for his industrialization and specially pro-education policies ("Gobernar es educar"). I think he was good but he is vastly overrated in popular culture He himself was very critical of his administration and felt that he wasn't able to improve the living conditions of the poor. But his Frente Popular did very well in the municipal and parliamentary elections of 1941, so at the time he was well regarded. Died from cancer.

Juan Antonio Ríos (1941-1946): Mainly positive because of his industrialization policies but he isn't widely discussed. Suffered a lot from the infighting of his coalition Alianza Democratica (successor of the Frente Popular) that was heavily defeated in the 1945 midterms, the last time the Right won a parliamentary majority without centrist parties. Also died early.

Gabriel Gonzalez Videla (1946-1952): The only thing he is remembered for is the infamous "Ley Maldita" (cursed law) that illegalized the Communist Party and the start of the Cold War. I think he is the only radical president that doesn't have a photo in the Radical Party headquarters and is basically the black sheep of the period.

Carlos Ibañez del Campo (1927-1931 and 1952-1958). He first ruled the country as a dictator until the great depression and won in 1952 with a populist and antipartisan platform. This is the first government my grandmother remembers and she HATES him. Said it was the worst government she lived under after Pinochet and Piñera, having to do long queues in the countryside to get a little bit of flour. Generally regarded as bad, and the ibañist forces were electorally obliterated by the end of his government.

Jorge Alessandri (1958-1964). Neutral, remembered for the natural disasters, the Mundial de Futbol, and the first antecedents of land reform. Again, not widely discussed, but my grandmother remember his ads about "El pan grande para Chile" (a big bread for Chile), saying that the bread she always had to eat was very small

Eduardo Frei Montalva (1964-1970). Very positive I would say, for his policies of land reform, chilenization of copper minds and people's participation. DC partisan will not stop singing praises for this government and basically say that this is the best government that Chile had. My grandmother say it was "good", though the DC electoral results at the end of the decade show that it didn't quite live to the expectations at the time, but nowadays is fondly remembered.

It's nice to know your grandmother has such long lasting memories of Chilean history. Is Allende her favourite President?

[H. Ross Peron]

Every latin american election always somehow ends up as a contest between far-right and far-left.

Nope, Argentina has never had a far-left of far-right candidate getting the first or second place, other than Perón's third term and afaik that he was deep into conspiracies, murder plots, and that his closest ally was the leader of a far right paramilitary group were all hidden from most people before the election

And then there's Uruguay, Mexico, Costa Rica, Brazil before Bolsonaro, Chile until this election, Ecuador's leaders may've mostly been corrupt sh*theads but they weren't anywhere near the far left or far right other than for purely opportunistic reasons

Enjoy while you can.

And you say it yourselves, Brazil before Bolsonaro, Chile until this election. In Mexico, US media called AMLO a communist as well, and his opponent might be quite far-right as well during the next election.

AMLO is Mexican Jimmy Carter in terms of his small "c" conservative fiscal policy.

[H. Ross Peron]

Boric seems to be doing quite poorly in the north.

[H. Ross Peron]

Big Ernst Thalmann energy here:

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1462608058899644419

[H. Ross Peron]

I have also had talked extensively about how fertile ground was for populism, and well, Parisi and Kast to a lesser extent are a reflection of that. Parisi did very well in the ancestral left wing areas that had been trending away from it. Not just the North, but also Metro Concepción that pre-1973 was the leftist city in the country and has the oldest trend against the left, dating back to 2005-2009. The left managed to hold on to the Norte Chico, in Atacama I believe for Provoste favourite daughter effect and in Coquimbo because that region is so left win that Boric still came out on top. (Also, Coquimbo is kinda different in terms of economic activities). In the South it was a Kast landslide in the areas most affected by the Mapuche conflict (Araucanía-Arauco) which has been very violent in recent years, he promised heavy-handed military response. The rest of the south Provoste did well in rural areas wich combined with the natural right lean of those regions meant that Kast won everything save for Magallanes, another left-wing stronghold and Boric home region.

Something that I want to make clear also is that in the first round Boric campaign was decisively not "STOP FASCISM", he tried to put a positive message but was drowned by the terror campaign. But the results had a huge demoralizing effect and the knee-jerk reaction among leftist voters has been, well, "stop fascism". That's why I'm pessimistic about the second round. Is very much winnable, but I don't know if Boric has the ability to pull that off (more than Boric, the people that surround him)

I was wondering if Mapuches tended to be conservative voting but I guess that's not the case. How violent is this conflict in Aracunia?

[H. Ross Peron]

First polls for the runoff

Black and White:

Boric 44 - Kast 41

This is Sichel's pollster that went dark after Sichel meltdown and only posted runoff numbers before the first round saying that Sichel was the only one that beat Boric. So, take it with a lot of salt (in the sense that maybe this is just Sichel saying "See? I told you so!")

Activa:

Boric 40,4% - Kast 24,5% | LV: Boric 53,9 - Kast 32,8%

Eh... I will just post the crosstabs

I like how this poll shows a non negligible number of Kast/Boric voters.

[H. Ross Peron]

Guess Marx was right about the lumpenproletariat...

More seriously, it makes sense if slightly more educated and skilled workers were more likely to be unionized. Also the rural poor are probably much more religious compared to the urban working class. Is there any class component to Evangelicalism in Chile? Evangelical converts in Latin America seem to be a mix of upwardly mobile "new" middle class types and the poor. Of course, many evangelicals still vote for left parties in Latin America for class reasons.

[H. Ross Peron]

What explains Valparaiso's fairly substantial shift to the left? Is it more due to demographic changes within the city or a shift in voting patterns?

[H. Ross Peron]

Do recent European immigrants (Germans, Croats etc.) vote to the right of the country? How about indigenous peoples especially non-Mapuche?

[H. Ross Peron]

Won't be close. Boric will get 55% or up.

Based.

[H. Ross Peron]

I know that AMLO in Mexico is often described as being on the left but where is the evidence for that? He seemed very cosy with Trump and his Covid policies have been very Bolsonaro like. What has he ever done that is actually leftwing?

What has he done that is right-wing? And it needs to be something that you can’t associate to Trump.

Relationship with/Opinion on Trump doesn’t define the ideological spectrum lol

Being in denial about Covid and parroting anti-vax and anti-mask drivel that one usually associated with rightwing nutbars

"Associated" is operative here imo; vaccine conspiracy theories were a moonbat thing before they were a wingnut thing.

AMLO being aligned (ish) with Trump also doesn't necessarily make him right-wing since Trump was happy to play nice with leftist leaders in other countries as long as they were macho and strongmannish enough for him. Duterte isn't exactly a pillar of the right in his country either.

I think the real evidence of AMLO's conservatism is his extremely fiscally conservative policy that even sources Bloomberg decried (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-10/u-s-stimulus-is-delivering-the-cash-to-mexicans-that-amlo-won-t). This obviously isn't because AMLO is an ideological Chicago School devotee but rather his small "c" conservative mindset of the small town merchant who believes that one's accounts must always stay in the black that makes him regard deficits with horror and encourages him to make public displays of economy. Lots of parallels to Jimmy Carter here.

[H. Ross Peron]

Kast only leading Boric 53-46 among Chilean expats in the United States is pretty indicative of Boric's strong majority in the runoff.

[H. Ross Peron]

Some election data: (M= women, H= men)

Turnout by age and gender.


Vote share by age and gender.



The Metropolitan region especifically:

Chile is pretty interesting in that turnout seems to decrease with age compared to turnout tending to peak in late middle age/early elderhood in most countries I've seen and that it collapses with those over 70 unless its a Covid related effect.

[H. Ross Peron]

Oh great. Chile elected Jeremy Corbyn. Glad he's not going to have much power.

If Kast had been even 1/10th as antisemitic as this, it would have been in the international media everywhere, including comments on how it is so outrageous for him to be in the runoff.

Boric is way more critical of nominally left authoritarian regimes such as Nicaragua than Corbyn ever was.