Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[kaoras]

Araucanía.



Araucanía has always been Chile most conservative region, but the violence of the Mapuche conflict in recent years has exacerbated this, with many fire attacks on forest companies, forest plantations, and farms located in lands claimed by Mapuche communities



This was obviously Kast and the right best region, though here it monopolized the rightist vote to such an extent that Sichel struggled to get double digits. Kast broke 50% in the comunas most affected by violence such as Collipulli and Ercilla (Collipulli used to be left leaning until very recently) and was stronger in the Malleco Province (the northern part of the region, red on the map). In the small city of Victoria, he got 57% and his best result nationwide was in Lumaco with 58%. Kast fell short of 40% in the regional capital, Temuco, and some comunas in eastern Araucanía less affected by violence like Galvarino, Chol-Chol, and Nueva Imperial, plus Saavedra, a fishing town that was the only comuna won by Guillier in the 2017 runoff.

Boric ran even with Provoste and Parisi in most of the rural comunas. He did slightly better in Temuco (19,6%, Temuco has never been particularly lefty either) but his best result was actually the lake resort of Pucón, a very fancy and touristy place where he got 23% (against 37,5% for Kast) and was one of the few places where Matthei won in 2013. I guess the cuicos there are more hippie?. Provoste did well in the comunas of eastern Araucanía that I mentioned, getting above 20% there and second place.

Overall right vote: 52.6%
Overall left vote: 35.5%
Parisi: 11.9%

[kaoras]

Los Ríos



My home region! Now we are in the south proper that has some small but interesting urban-rural dynamics. Los Ríos is unique in its urban-rural divide. Valdivia is the only regional capital that has never voted for the right, but the rest of the region is fairly conservative, with the exception of the port of Corral and the comunas closer to Valdivia that tend to be more even. Valdivia and Corral are old industrial zones, but really old, they lost most of their industries in the 1960 earthquake. Their left tendency has been remarkably stubborn. Valdivia nowadays is touristy and has a lot of universities and student population, but surprisingly at the presidential level, they tend to prefer the mainstream leftist option rather than leaning FA as one could imagine (In 2017, in the first round Beatriz Sanchez did worse than the national average here). The whole region is a PS stronghold, the socialists control the governorship, one senate seat, and 2 of the 5 deputies (with a third that is ex-PS)



Now finally some more color. Boric won Valdivia (with 30%) and emerged on top of a three way tie with Provoste and Kast in Corral (25,5%). You will notice that this looks a lot like a U.S. state map because of the unique urban-rural divide I mentioned above. I have to mention that Corral and Valdivia are NOT a conurbation and they aren't even that economically connected. However, Boric fell below 20% in every other comuna. In Mariquina and Mafil he was pushed to third place by Parisi, who found the succes that was elusive to him in Valdivia. Even though, Boric did relatively well (26%) in the fishing communities of Mehuin and Mississipi in Mariquina coast. I haven't mentioned this tby much but Boric did well (by his rural standars) among fishermen. In the interior and Ranco Province Boric was about even with Provoste (as has been the norm).  Kast neared 40% there, most of the interior are lakeside small cities and towns, popular summer house destinations for high-income people.

Overall right vote: 43.4%
Overall left vote: 43.6%
Parisi: 13.1%

[H. Ross Peron]

Do recent European immigrants (Germans, Croats etc.) vote to the right of the country? How about indigenous peoples especially non-Mapuche?

[kaoras]

Do recent European immigrants (Germans, Croats etc.) vote to the right of the country? How about indigenous peoples especially non-Mapuche?

I don't think there is much "recent" European migration, though your choice of nationalities seems to indicate we have different concepts of "recent" . Colonos croatas mainly came to Magallanes that is fairly left wing. Germans mostly settled Los Ríos and Los Lagos and seem to lean to the right (but more because nowadays almost all of their descendants are high income than because any particular lean of them as a nationality)

According to studies, Mapuches living in traditional communities vote exactly like peasants, with a slight lean to the right but very likely to support Mapuche candidates ("ethnic solidarity"). However, in cities, people who claim Mapuche ascendency are very much left wing. Rural mapuches also seem to cause a backlash effect that make non-mapuches living near them to be uber right wing, but this is only an educated guess from the election results.  As I have said, rural communities outside the zone of conflict have swung hard to the left.

An interesting thing I just noticed is that the comunas of eastern Araucanía where Kast got under 40% are all much more Mapuche than the rest of the region, though this phenomenon doesn't repeat itself in the mountain areas near the Andes that are also heavily Mapuche.

Aymaras in the north are overwhelmingly right wing, in no small part due to evangelical influence (hence the results in Camiña and Colchane), though for the constituent elections they voted for leftist local candidates. Atacameños / Lican Antay (concentrated in San Pedro de Atacama) lean left and have been more stubborn in that compared with the rest of Antofagasta. The same could be said with Changos in Taltal. Rapa Nui in Isla de Pascua are swingy but the FA seems to have struck a chord with them.The rest of the ethnic groups that are concentrated enough to make an inference (Quechuas in Ollagüe, Diaguitas in Alto del Carmen) seem to follow the regional patterns without much difference.

You can check a map of the indigenous population according to the 2017 census here: https://www.emol.com/noticias/Nacional/2018/05/05/905013/Mapa-Camina-Alto-Biobio-y-Colchane-son-las-comunas-con-un-porcentaje-mayor-de-poblacion-de-pueblos-originarios.html

[kaoras]

Los Lagos



Los Lagos has usually been rightist, and its main industries are tourism, forestry and aquaculture of salmonids. The region however has some interesint dynamics, like a reverse rural-urban divide in the Osorno Province or the left trend in the idiosyncratic island of Chiloé.


In Osorno Province, the rural areas are more left wing than the city of Osorno itself. Kast won all of it with just over 30%, but Provoste did very well there, coming in second with over 20% and winning the 79%-mapuche San Juan de la Costa with 30%. This comuna used to be right leaning in the 90’s but now posted the highest left-wing vote share of all the region outside of Chiloe. In Osorno proper, Kast won with 31% against 21% of Boric and 15% for Provoste

In Llanquihue, Kast neared 40% in the rural areas, with the left evenly split between Boric and Provoste in the high teens. In regional capital Puerto Montt, Kast got 33%, Boric 21,5% and Parisi was third with 16%. Parisi seem to have taken votes mainly from the right in some adjacent comunas such as Calbuco and Hualaihue when he neared 20% but he also did well in some usually left leaning lakeside areas like Llanquihue (17%).

Chiloé Island is really interesting. The small chain of islands in the interior sea are one of the most rural and isolated places you can imagine and they are overwhelmingly left wing, along with the biggest city of the island, Castro. However, the rest of the island used to be rightist, and as a whole Chiloé voted for the right in 2000 and 2009. However, in recent years the island has swung to the left. Guillier won it in 2017 despite a much lower nationwide share than what the left got in 2009 and 2000. The rural comunas that Kast won this time was thanks to vote splitting of Boric and Provoste, who both got in the 20’s. Boric won the chain of islands of Quinchao (that had a +60% combinated left vote), Puqueldón, Chonchi and Castro. Parisi also did very well in all these comunas. Provoste won Queilen and did very well in rural areas, but tanked in the cities of Castro (13,7%) and Ancud (15%). In the island as a whole, Kast won by a hair with 25% against 24% for Boric, 17% for Provoste and 16% Parisi.

Palena is boring, sparsely populated, and with a heavy military presence. Kast won over 40%.

Overall right vote: 43.4%
Overall left vote: 41.7%
Parisi: 14.9%

[jeron]

First overseas results in.
Kast wins in Singapore by 22 to 13 votes , while Boric gets 86% of the vote in New Zealand (738-118 votes)

[kaoras]

First overseas results in.
Kast wins in Singapore by 22 to 13 votes , while Boric gets 86% of the vote in New Zealand (738-118 votes)

https://twitter.com/ChalecosAmarill/status/1472507342327586817

That Twitter thread has most of the results so far.

[kaoras]

Aysén



The most isolated and sparsely populated region of Chile, since the return to democracy Aysén has usually been right wing, but it has trended hard to the left in recent years, especially since their conflict with Piñera government in 2012.



Not much to add. Kast won mostly because of the unusually strong result of Provoste (DC is well organized in the region). His best results were in comunas with high concentration of army personnel such as Lago Verde and O’higgins. He also won the regional capital Coyhaique 29,6% (25,4% for Boric and 17% Provoste). Boric won Chile Chico (32%), one of the few places in the region where crops are able to grow, and the fishermen of Tortel (34%) and came within a hair of winning the port of Puerto Aysén.

Overall right vote: 39.3%
Overall left vote: 47.9%
Parisi: 12.9%


Magallanes


We are at the end of the road here. Magallanes is an industrial region that is only accessible by road through Argentina (because of massive ice fields). Also an inmemorial leftist stronghold (El Frente Popular got 88% of the vote en in 1938), it voted for Piñera in 2009 but has snapped back to the left after a nasty conflict with him over gas prices. They are also very regionalist and people from there will never stop telling you that they are magallanicos or waving their flag.



This is Boric's home region though his results were underwhelming considering the expectations. He only won 3 comunas, the capital Punta Arenas, Puerto Natales and Porvenir in Tierra del Fuego, which are coincidently the 3 biggest population centers. The rest were won by Kast with a difference that basically depends on how much military there is in them.

A few notable things: Kast got 65% of the vote in Puerto Eden within the comuna of Natales. Puerto Eden is home of the last Kaweshqar community, though with 32 votes cast in total his margin could be inflated by army officers. To the shock of no one, Kast also got 72% in the military base of Villa Las Estrellas in Antártica. Kast did very poorly in the touristy comuna of Torres del Paine (home to the world famous national park of the same name), winning but with only 27% of the vote. The left combined did very well there with 53% of the vote. Is curious because Torres del Paine has usually been rightist.

Overall right vote: 36.3%
Overall left vote: 51.1%
Parisi: 12.6%

[kaoras]

And that's it for the geographical analysis!. This time I will not be a poll watcher so I will be able to properly comment on the results here.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Link to the live results?

[kaoras]

Link to the live results?

https://www.servelelecciones.cl/

https://live.decidechile.cl/#/ev/2021.12/ct/2021.12.P/

[Niemeyerite]

Thank you so much for all the info, kaoras.

Is there any link where we can follow international results? NZ results look very good for Boric.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Link to the live results?

https://www.servelelecciones.cl/

https://live.decidechile.cl/#/ev/2021.12/ct/2021.12.P/

Thanks!

[kaoras]

Thank you so much for all the info, kaoras.

Is there any link where we can follow international results? NZ results look very good for Boric.

Not that I found, you best shot is looking for them on twitter

[Niemeyerite]

So, in Australia and NZ, Boric 2nd round > Boric + Provoste + MEO + Artés 1st round, and Kast 2 < Kast + Sichel. That's very good news so far. I hope people in Chile are following the same trend

[jaichind]

So, in Australia and NZ, Boric 2nd round > Boric + Provoste + MEO + Artés 1st round, and Kast 2 < Kast + Sichel. That's very good news so far. I hope people in Chile are following the same trend

Yeah.  These results are quite depressing.  I am still holding out some hope that Kast can win but it does seem an uphill race.   

[kaoras]

In Santiago the public transportation is half of what it is a normal day, especially in Puente Alto, La Florida and La Pintana. When you think that the government can't fall any lower...

Edit: The issues with public transportation seem to be nationwide

[kaoras]

The lack of public transportation is just criminal. Just watch any report on the news. And they are worse precisely in the areas more proclive to Boric.

[Niemeyerite]

I remember picking the metro in Santiago everyday and it was always full of people. Not even in Delhi did I see so many people in the same place at the same time.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The lack of public transportation is just criminal. Just watch any report on the news. And they are worse precisely in the areas more proclive to Boric.

So the administration is basically all in for Kast?

[Mike88]

Live feeds of the coverage:

Meganoticias

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kmVw5rhfipo

T13

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ove87nZ_1D4

24 horas

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jMIJ4ae3io4

[kaoras]

The lack of public transportation is just criminal. Just watch any report on the news. And they are worse precisely in the areas more proclive to Boric.

So the administration is basically all in for Kast?

Yes, is beyond disgusting. I just cannot express how angry I'm right now.

The biggest myth of Chilean politics is that there exist a democratic right, they are all the same.

[Sweet kiss of liquid modernity]

Why was there such a big expansion of the voter rolls from 2013 onwards?

[Mike88]

The lack of public transportation is just criminal. Just watch any report on the news. And they are worse precisely in the areas more proclive to Boric.

So the administration is basically all in for Kast?

Yes, is beyond disgusting. I just cannot express how angry I'm right now.

The biggest myth of Chilean politics is that there exist a democratic right, they are all the same.

Is this affecting turnout in a big way? I mean, polls close in 3 and half hours, right?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

The lack of public transportation is just criminal. Just watch any report on the news. And they are worse precisely in the areas more proclive to Boric.

So the administration is basically all in for Kast?

Always has been