Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[Velasco]

I noticed this is how the Unidad Constituyente logo looks like:



Does the pinwheel have any sort of special meaning in Chile or are they just trying to make themselves look more left wing by copying the old Juntos Podemos Más logo?

I doubt anyone outside geeks like us remembers the Juntos Podemos logo or Juntos Podemos very existence. . The pinwheel is probably just that a graphic designer got lazy and copy it.

The colour choice is extremely weird to me though because they are usually represented in maps as red or as some shade of orange. (But well, New Majority logo was blue so...)

This is either Juntos Podemos Más or the Google Photos logo in blue tones

Regarding the DC folks, I honestly believed they were on the track to disappear. Either it's their merit or the fault of their adversaries and the Chilean left, good for them What kind of constituency represrnts that old party nowadays?

[Velasco]

This is either Juntos Podemos Más or the Google Photos logo in blue tones

Regarding the DC folks, I honestly believed they were on the track to disappear. Either it's their merit or the fault of their adversaries and the Chilean left, good for them What kind of constituency represrnts that old party nowadays?

Well, since they are very old they have a fair amount of party loyalists (though they have a lot more problem keeping that base than the eternally stable PS). They tend to attract moderate voters who dislike the right but they have struggled a lot with that over the years. I know exactly one person that voted DC in 2017 for reasons outside family connections and was basically because he liked Carolina Goic. And that's a big reason why they remain relevant. Politics in Chile are a lot more personality-based than this thread seems to imply.

For example, I know for sure that PS has a better machine in Los Lagos, but the PS candidate there was a nobody while the DC one was a former well-known congressman. They still have plenty of people with a personal appeal all over the country, and due to history and family tradition, they (much like PS) are still able to attract some fresh faces and good quality candidates that keep them alive.

For the record, I still think that the DC long-term prospects don't look good but they still have a base to work with.

That's resilience.  Quite possibly the DC's future prospects depend on the pervivence of a moderate centre-to-centre-left pole like the Concertacion and its heir Unidad Constituyente. The DC alone is doomed to decline over the years as its loyal base  is increasingly older, but the DC can remain relevant within a greater alliance... or eventually transform itself into something else

Unidad Constituyente primariames to elect candidate for governor of the Santiago Metropolitan Region (newly created post replacing the intendente appointed by the president)

Claudia Orrego (DC) 51.63%
Hella Molina (PPD) 26.03%
Álvaro Erazo (PS) 22.34%

[Velasco]

I have vague memories of Power Rangers and Caballeros del Zodiaco. They must have been glorious, but I wasn't a schoolkid fan

[Velasco]

In addition, Pablo Maltes, Jiles' husband, did pretty bad in the RM gubernatorial (5th place, with just 10%).

Ok so uh, given the results, should I worry about Chile becoming a Bolivarian Republic of some sort and West Venezuela in a couple of years? (Given the left holds a 2/3 supermajority)

Or is the Chilean left not a danger in that way?

If you think every country in the world has a danger of becoming something like that.

But I would say that on the contrary, with these results (not only in the convention) Chile has chosen to solve our serious crisis through institutional channels, and that is the beauty. If you start to see the elected members of the convention, the quality if pretty good (with a mix of constitutionalists, academics and members of the civil society).

The thing is that the left is still fragmented and divided, but for the first time, the right don't have the chance to exploit that in order to maintain the status quo.

The Constitutional convention will not be a easy process, the country will experience some tension, but that is actually needed (to avoid another October 18th), but I'm pretty optimist that the final result will be very good and we will have a constitution that will not have all the answers, but will provide the framework to people to solve issues in a way that the current one is totally uncapable.

I'm glad to read you have elected quality members for your constituent assembly, because they are needed to draft a decent constitution. Even if the right is in ruins, as you say the left is splitted in multiple factions and there exists a huge problem to address with your high levels of abstention and Chilean people's diengagement from political affairs
 

[Velasco]

In the feed I'm watching, 24horas.cl, they are saying that there were center-right voters who voted for Boric in order to defeat Jardue.

Yeah, the turnout difference in D11 say otherwise. Is spin to explain why AD beat them in turnout.

"Centre-right" voters are supporters of Vamos Chile?  If so, is it clever voting for Boric to beat the commie?

[Velasco]

Also, if you want to say that Boric has political skills (which he has), Errejón really is not a good comparison.  

I don't know if Errejón has political skills, but he is articulate and his parliamentary speeches are excellent.  As seb_pard correctly said, Errejón advocated building alliances beyond the classic left. However, I can't imagine Errejón opposing legislation like that Ley de Inclusión discussed in the Chilran parliament. During the last canpaign in Madrid,  I watched excerpts of his speeches in low income neighbourhoods  i can testify that Errejón has communication skills and is empathetic with the poor, despite UP rivals accuse him of being a BoBo leftist.  Errejón comes from an upper-middle class family and his father is a fascinating figure: a retired high ranking civil servant who worked with PSOE and PP administrations (currently he is member of an advisory council for European affairs in Madrid's regional assembly), as well a hard leftist and a pioneer of political ecologism in Spain. Very interesting your discussion on Gabriel Boric, I have to say. Please continue

[Velasco]

It's all over now

I'll be watching tomorrow and hoping Boric has a better performance than the Pinochet supporter

[Velasco]

Is there any particular reason for the relatively high % of blank/null ballots in the parliamentary elections (especially when compared to the presidential %)?

It's the electoral system, Open List PR which means a TON of candidates, very hard to get info on most of them, so many people simply don't even try to choose

It's clear the traditional 'centrist' coalitions (ChP+ and NPS) perform comparatively better than the alternatives to the left and the right  (AD and FSC), while the 'populist' candidates clearly underperform in the parliamentary elections (PDG snd especially PRO).  I'm particularly amazed at the extremely poor performance of the Progressive Party,  especially when MEO got 7.6% in the presidential election

Is there any poll on which proportion of Parisi voters will choose one candidate or another? I assume Kast will get the biggest share, but proportion matters (polls in Chileare not alwaysreliable, I know). Also, do you have any hope in a turnout surge that helps Boric?

[Velasco]

Finally a relative turnout surge (by Chilean standards) and a relatively easy win for Boric. I am pleased

[Velasco]

The manipulative tactics deployed by reactionaries and friends of the apartheid state are intolerable.  Gabriel Boric says in that tweet "thank you for the gift", but also says: " if your commitment to a fairer society is true, you should ask Israel to put and end to the illegal occupation". Certainly asking Israel to be fair and democratic is antisemitic, while endorsing or turning a blind eye to the abhorrent apartheid regime are the norm.

I will tell all the reactionaries, islamophobes,  hasbara trolls and pinkwashers that I have watched the film 'Shoah' at least twice. Also, I don't buy anything made in Israel and don't accept insults from miserable apartheidists

Gabriel Boric serms to be a decent person

[Velasco]

Reminder that Gabriel Boric is an anti-semite whose response to a Rosh Hashanah gift basket from Chilean Jews was to ask why they weren't calling upon Israel to end the occupation:

https://twitter.com/gabrielboric/status/1179498192985116672?lang=en

Oh, the horror. If that's your standard for antisemitism, then right is worse. Just google Ivan Moreira Palestina. My city even was declared a territory free of Israel Apartheid under an UDI mayor

In fact, a senate resolution calling for sanctions to Israel over the anexation of the west bank passed with unanimous support in the Senate, after being presented by an UDI senator

I do not think Boric is anti-Semitic (not that I know him personally and claim to know his sub-conscience). I think in this case he was ignorant of how his message plays into an anti-Semitic stereotype that all Jews in the world are somehow responsible for what the government of Israel does. They are not. Israelis are responsible for the actions of their government.

If an organization representing the Chinese community in Chile sent Boric a Happy Chinese New Year's message along with some moon cakes - do you think he would respond by saying "thanks for the cakes, but when was the last time you guys condemned the Chinese government for what its doing to the Uighurs?" - I think not.

While it is true the Jewish diaspora is not liable for the crimes of Israel, the Jewish organizations worldwide lobbying and campaigning for Israel are responsible. The main example of this is the evil AIPAC. In what concerns the Jewish community in Chile,  I don't know to what extent its members and organizations are involved in Israel's propaganda machine. Anyway the claim that Boric is an ignorant who contributes to spread antisemitic stereotypes is false. Asking the Jewish community to take a moral stance on the actions of the self-proclaimed Jewish state is not equal to claim all the Jewish people is guilty of genocide and apartheid. Boric says in that rweet the Jewish community (or its representatives) told him something about the commitment to a fairer society.  The president elect is simply asking these Jewish representatives to be consistent to that commitment, asking Israel to stop committing crimes against humanity. There is not a generic accusation implicit in that call for consistency. In other words, nobody can claim support for equality or inclusiveness while endorsing an apartheid state

[Velasco]

Boric didn't attack the Jewish diaspora. Improve your reading comprehension or take some Spanish language lessons, please. Stop telling lies and polluting everywhere with topics related to Israel

[Velasco]

Boric didn't attack the Jewish diaspora. Improve your reading comprehension or take some Spanish language lessons, please. Stop telling lies and polluting everywhere with topics related to Israel

I don't think he meant to attack all Jews in Chile. He made a mistake and hopefully next time he will know better. When an organization representing the Jewish community in your country sends you new years greetings and a jar of honey - the correct response is something along the lines of "Thank you so much and I look forward to getting building closer ties with the Jewish community which has contributed so much to our country blah blah blah..." - you don't try to turn it into another Israel vs Palestinians food fight. Leave that for another day.

Kaoras, who is better informed than us as a Chilean insider, already told to us that particular Jewish organization is like a Chilean AIPAC

So please don't argue a gift from that particular Chilean organization is an innocent sign of goodwill. Boric is a staunch critic of the Israeli state and those folks know it. It is reasonable to wonder why these folks send a gift to that leftist leader claiming commitment to a fairer and more inclusive society. I think this could be a clear example of hypocrisy and trolling


We should make a distinction between the Jewish community or the Chilean diaspora and that particular organization.

Boric didn't attack the Jewish diaspora nor he did a mistake. He gave an addecuate response to a particular Jewish organization. According to kaoras that organization is spreading conspiracy teoríes,  stereotypes and hate speech against Palestinians. Trolls
 

[Velasco]

I have said over and over again and that I do NOT think Boric is anti-Semitic. I'm Jewish and if i were Chilean i would have enthusiastically voted for him!! But, I just think he needs to be more careful to avoid these "micro-aggressions" against Jews whereby they feel held to account all the time for whatever Israel does. I take zero responsibility for what Israel says or does i resent the implication that I should have to take a "position" on the Middle East or that i should feel any need to "apologize" for anything.

You are an individual and not an organization claiming to represent the Jewish community in a Latin American country.  As a Jewish individual you are neither responsible for Israel, nor you are obliged to take a position. Nobody who is reasonable would say you should apologize for anything Israel is doing in the territories under its rule (Jewish Israelis are a different case)

However organizations are different from individuals. Also, according to kaoras, this organization has taken a clear stance on the "Middle East affairs" that is clearly "pro-Israel" and "anti-Palestine". When this organization is trolling a certain Gabriel Boric sending him some "poisoned gifts", I think that Boric is entitled to ask that organization for commitment to decolonization in Palestine. That call from Boric shouldn't be taken as an attack against the rest of the Jewish community or particular individuals, for he is not questioning them

[Velasco]

Also, according to kaoras, this organization has taken a clear stance on the "Middle East affairs" that is clearly "pro-Israel" and "anti-Palestine". When this organization is trolling a certain Gabriel Boric sending him some "poisoned gifts", I think that Boric is entitled to ask that organization for commitment to decolonization in Palestine. That call from Boric shouldn't be taken as an attack against the rest of the Jewish community or particular individuals, for he is not questioning them

Sometimes the smart thing to do when you think you are being "trolled" is not to take the bait by sending a response that will inevitably be misinterpreted. and BTW: referring to a jar of honey from a Jewish organization as a "poisoned gift" sounds like a Medieval "blood libel" accusing Jews of spreading poison and pestilence - so maybe you should watch your language a bit more.

1) When I say that organization is sending a,"poisoned gift", by no means I am echoing blood libels. That's truly mischiveous and I could claim I am being personally attacked.

The actual meaning of "poisoned gift" is "something that initially appears to be good, wholesome, or positive, but is really harmful". In other words, it is trolling and not simply an innocent jar of honey. This topic is too harmful. Stop being disingeneous, please

2) Asking politely a "pro-Israel" trolling organization not to be hypocritical is not what I would call taking the troll's bait. Why do you advice Boric to remain silent, instead of criticizing the nefarious trolls? Boric didn't say anything that you should take as a personal attack. Why do you continue inflating this artificial controversy? Are you trolling?

[Velasco]

If an American Muslim group sent a Ramadan gift to Donald Trump, and his response was to ask them why they haven't stopped ISIS, would that be Islamophobic?

Did you notice that, besides being "the best friend of Israel", Donald Trump is an obvious antisemite? Rabidly pro-Israel antisemites. Are you capable to understand the irony?

Answering to your question, it is totally impossible that a "Ramadan organization" is willing to send a gift to Donald Trump (unless those mean Muslims are trolling, of course)

It happens Donald Trump is also a notorious islamophobe.  Did you know Arabs are a semitic people? Orange haired populists hate brown people

Definitely if the AIPAC or its Chilean counterpart send me a jar of honey, I will ask them to condemn Apartheid Israel.

This thread is going off-topic and derailing thanks to your insidious claims about Boric. Isn't it ironic that you complain for that?

[Velasco]

This wasn't AIPAC, it was literally the Jewish community of Chile. Here's their webpage, https://www.cjch.cl/, you can see for yourself that it's not some Chilean-Israeli alliance organization.

The new President of Chile's anti-semitic remarks seem pretty directly relevant to a thread on Chilean politics. I'm disappointed that you don't think that's important. I'm also disappointed that you've avoided my earlier question: If an American Muslim group sent a Ramadan gift to Donald Trump, and his response was to ask them why they haven't stopped ISIS, would that be Islamophobic?

No, that's false. It wasn't actually the Jewish community,  but the organization claiming to represent it. That's the core of this issue, because kaoras already informed us that organization has taken a clear pro-Israel stance and is also spreading conspiracy theories and hatred towards Palestinians.

Boric remarks are in no way antisemitic when he is giving a response to a particular organization.  In any case he made a mistake in not clarifying he was as giving a response to the representatives of a Jewish organization.  When the representatives of a certain organization lobby and campaign for Israel,  it is reasonable to question them for the policies of the Israeli state (deemed genocidal by Boric). That is also at the core of the issue: there is an apartheid regime in Israel-Palestine

Boric should have tweeted "the representatives of the Jewish community " instead of " the Jewish community ". That is all

Other than that, this topic is totally irrelevant to this thread

[Velasco]

This wasn't AIPAC, it was literally the Jewish community of Chile. Here's their webpage, https://www.cjch.cl/, you can see for yourself that it's not some Chilean-Israeli alliance organization.

The new President of Chile's anti-semitic remarks seem pretty directly relevant to a thread on Chilean politics. I'm disappointed that you don't think that's important. I'm also disappointed that you've avoided my earlier question: If an American Muslim group sent a Ramadan gift to Donald Trump, and his response was to ask them why they haven't stopped ISIS, would that be Islamophobic?

No, that's false. It wasn't actually the Jewish community,  but the organization claiming to represent it. That's the core of this issue, because kaoras already informed us that organization has taken a clear pro-Israel stance and is also spreading conspiracy theories and hatred towards Palestinians.

Boric remarks are in no way antisemitic when he is giving a response to a particular organization.  In any case he made a mistake in not clarifying he was as giving a response to the representatives of a Jewish organization.  When the representatives of a certain organization lobby and campaign for Israel,  it is reasonable to question them for the policies of the Israeli state (deemed genocidal by Boric). That is also at the core of the issue: there is an apartheid regime in Israel-Palestine

Boric should have tweeted "the representatives of the Jewish community " instead of " the Jewish community ". That is all

Other than that, this topic is totally irrelevant to this thread

So you're arguing that because not every member of the Jewish community signed the card wishing a deputy Happy Rosh Hashanah, the card didn't represent their true feelings? That's funny.

As to your other claim, neither you nor Kaoras has provided any proof of CJC lobbying and campaigning for Israel. Can you provide any?

I am arguing that organization is merely a zionist propaganda vehicle. You only have to visit the "comunidad judia" website to realize it's full of that garbage. Go there and find the evidence yourself, bro

I really hope that not every member of the Jewish community in Chile endorses that organization. I know there are plenty of Jewish individuals not endorsing the policies of the Israeli government

[Velasco]

I have been there!

Of course you have been there!

[Velasco]

[
It's not "zionist" propaganda (whatever you mean by that) but as I said, every time the conflict shows up again they repeat all the talking points of the Israeli government, and that's totally fine. For  example, this is what they said for example in May:

When I say "zionist propaganda" I am referring to the contents of this site in particular

https://www.cjch.cl/

I found loads of garbage in a flash view. Please explore it and save me the effort to explain you the meaning of "propaganda"

On the other hand, press releases in support of the Israeli government are legal because freedom of speech exists in democratic countries, but in no way I consider it's "perfectly fine" to speak on behalf of an apartheid state.

In any case, I think the point is perfectly clear. Gabriel Boric criticized a pro-Israel organization called "Jewish community" which sent him something, not the Jewish community itself. Claiming this is antisemitic is disingenuous

[Velasco]

I am waiting for the new "feminist government" promised by Boric

Will be Izkia Siches the next Health minister?

The "new generation" of Chilean leaders in the link below

https://elpais.com/internacional/2021-12-21/los-rostros-del-cambio-en-chile-una-nueva-generacion-llega-a-la-moneda-con-boric.html

[Velasco]

The left current coalition is very unstable and could be easily undone if by some miracle a sane socially liberal right emerged.

Isn't this Evopoli? (Or at least they pretend they're like this)

I watched senator Felipe Kast explaining why Evopoli supported candidate José Antonio Kast. I felt a sensation of deja vu when the senator said "we are democrats", while bashing the evil communists who support mapuche "terrorists" and stating "the Pinochet regime did some good things".  Actually I thought Felipe Kast was Albert Rivera, the former leader of the Spanish party Ciudadanos who occassionally quoted (unintentionally, I believe) Falange leader José Antonio Primo de Rivera. With all the due respect for their supporters, they are in no way "social liberals"

[Velasco]

The point is that, in order to secure a majority in tje Chamber of Deputies, Gabriel Boric needs to build bridges beyond the old Concertación. On the one hand,  we have DA and the Greens. On the other hand  we have the DC and the independents. Looking at the composition of the parliament, it seems obvious to me the role of the Christian Democracy is pivotal. DC is needed to secure a majority in the Chamber of Deputies and a tie in the Senate, alongside the independents.

 Apparently PS, PPD and others woud like to apply for the government coalition, but that's not the case of the DC (except maybe for the progressive faction?). I think the DC is an interesting case for different reasons, being a traditional party with a declining base that retains some influence. I would like that you rlaborate on the different factions, as well on the social and economic stances they support. Also, in case AD eas willing to accept the PS and the PPD, which allies are left for the DC? What is the role of the party in the Constituent Assembly?

The Rivera comparison is apt in some ways. It's particularly ironic since within the party we were rather mindful of the Ciudadanos debacle and keen not to repeat it, but the lesson some people drew from it wasn't that Rivera made a mistake to go so far to the right, but rather than Ciudadanos made a mistake of not having a clear enough identity. And now, of course, the party has chosen to put the "right" ahead of "liberal" in terms of its identity, embracing the Vox equivalent (some, of course, did it with alarming enthusiasm, like Senator-elect and aspiring "unity" figure Cruz-Coke).

* Which is why, on a personal note, I resigned my party membership a few weeks ago. Have felt rather relaxed since then.

In the case of Ciudadanos, I think going too far to the right and lacking a clear identity are not mutually exclusive. Actually, the analysis is correct. Ciudadanos never developed a clear identity, other than being the most vocal opponent to the Catalan nationalists. The point is that turn to the right not only conflicted with the alleged liberal identity; it was also perceived as a purely tactical move. In other words: marketing and opinion polls prevailed over the construction of a solid identity

Anyway Evopoli is a Chilean party with a different history and I appreciate your insight very much

[Velasco]

First round: pluralities
Second round: majorities

(click right button to enlarge)

[Velasco]

It's amazing to see that less rhan 10k voted in the first round of the DC leadership contest.

Forgot to comment on the Cabinet, found it surprisingly decent, and cleverly devoid from most of the figures that one would predict to burn out early or say something stupid (see: Depolo, Lagos, Sanhueza, and so on). Also clever positioning of Marcel, Jackson, Vallejos and Fernandez. If anything, the only one I found problematic was Nicolás Grau, and that's mostly my impression of him being incompetent rather than mere ideological aversion.

Having said all that, really looking forward to see how Siches handles security issues as long as that brief remains in her power, even if it's obvious the eventual vice-minister will handle those affairs directly. It's been speculated a lot that mistakes on that front could sink her earlier than expected given how unsuccessful Interior Ministers have been in the last decade and a half.

Friom what I watched past weekend (mostly analysts in CNN Chile), the cabinet looks very promising on paper. Besides the young figures (Siches, Jackson, Vallejos) and high profile veterans like Marcel*, the sppointments broaden the presidential coalition in two ways: the incorporation of independents from the "civil society " like Siches herself is not less important than the addition of "Socialismo Democrático". It is very reflective of the coalition that allowed Boric to win the second round. The appointments also fulfill the promise to create a "feminist government ", cabinet members are well prepared and Boric gave them the following advice: "listen twice the time you speak". They are all positive signs, in my opinion

While Izkia Siches faces a big challenge in her new position, Giorgio Jackson will have to handle with the Congress. AD + SD are lacking a majority in the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate promises to be very tough

Second tier appointments pending

*Marcel is an independent close to the PS not loved by everyone in the left, but his prestige as economist is undisputed. He resigns as Central Bank chairman

Fascinating new era to watch