Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022
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Poll
Question: Who would you vote for in the secound round?
#1
Gabriel Boric (Apuebo Dignidad, Left)
 
#2
Jose Antonio Kast (REP, far-right)
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 78

Author Topic: Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022  (Read 80880 times)
kaoras
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« on: November 05, 2020, 07:14:21 PM »
« edited: April 07, 2022, 07:59:05 AM by kaoras »

A new thread for the 6 elections we have between here and next year.

  • November, 29th 2020: Primaries for Gubernatorial and mayoral elections.
  • April, 11th 2021: Elections for Mayors, municipal councils, regional governors, and the Constituent Convention.
  • May 9th: Runoff for gubernatorial elections
  • July 4th: Primaries for Presidential and legislative elections.
  • November 21st: Elections for presidents, congress and regional councils
  • December 19th: Presidential Runoff.
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kaoras
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« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2020, 07:26:48 PM »
« Edited: November 05, 2020, 07:32:24 PM by kaoras »

The first elections are going to be the Primaries for Gubernatorial and mayoral elections. There are 4 electoral pacts doing primaries:

  • Chile Vamos (Government and rightist coalition) doing mayoral primaries in 37 municipalities along with the country and gubernatorial primaries in Tarapacá, Antofagasta, Atacama, Coquimbo, Maule, Los Ríos and Aysén regions.
  • Constituent Unity (PS+DC+PPD+PR+PRO+CIU, center left) doing gubernatorial primaries in all regions of the country
  • Frente Amplio/Broad Front (Leftist coalition) is doing gubernatorial primaries in Tarapacá, Valparaiso, Metropolitan and Los Lagos regions.
  • Green Ecologist Party (which left the FA last year) is doing gubernatorial primaries in Araucanía and mayoral primaries in 3 municipalities.

These primaries will have extremely low turnout and honestly is more like a show of strength for the different party machines (and, in the FA case, if they have any kind of drawing power). Although in the opposition case, they are probably going to be used to negotiate omition pacts and the lists for the municipal elections.

Data Influyes poll: (In which primaries would you participate?):

Frente Amplio 13%
Constituent Unity 12%
Chile Vamos 9%
None 66%
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2020, 08:57:00 AM »

Shouldn't the thread title actually have "2020-21"?
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kaoras
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« Reply #3 on: November 06, 2020, 12:59:37 PM »

Good catch.

In political news, Chile Vamos has been in a state of disarray since the plebiscite for a variety of reasons. The most noteworthy is that the Chamber of deputies impeached Interior Minister Victor Perez (UDI) over police brutality and he resigned, being replaced by Estación Central mayor Rodrigo Delgado (UDI), which was for approve in the plebiscite.

The government has taken a hit in the polls and Piñera's approval reached single digits again.

There is also polemic because Jose Antonio Kast and his Republican party want to run in a single list with Chile Vamos for the constituent elections. RN and EVOPOLI are against it because of how vicious Kast's criticism has been (also because he is a far-right extremist). I don't think they will reach an accord and honestly, I doubt that Kast is being honest with this offer, seems more like a stunt to me to improve his own standing by shifting the blame to Chile Vamos for the division. (In any case, the left is going to be very divided so if they lost the 1/3 of seats or something it won't be exactly because of running 2 lists)
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kaoras
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« Reply #4 on: November 11, 2020, 12:26:27 PM »

Political Update:

A second withdrawal of 10% of the private pensions funds passed the Chamber of Deputies with 2/3 margins given that most of Chile Vamos totally surrendered to the populist impulse. Still hilarious seeing the Christian democrats of all people saying this was a way to hurt the Private Pension system and replace it. This again sent the right in disarray, with Chile Vamos' deputies harshly criticizing the government during the debate. Honestly, the right is almost reaching Opposition levels of disorder, almost (which is still quite an achievement).

On the electoral game. Many groups keep pushing for a Unity left list for the Constituent Elections, but yeah, that's simply won't happen. They are still going to have a crisis over it in a few months though!
On the right, RN leader Mario Desbordes is the main opponent to a unity list with far-right Kast's Republican party. I have to mention the delusional projections that the Right has for the constituent elections. They say that with a unity list they will get 42% but if they split Kast will eat 10% of said vote. Eh... The last time the right got that % of the vote was in 2009. In 2017 they got 38% in parliamentary. Do they seriously think that after all that has happened these years they are going to improve 4%?

Also: Reserved seats for Indigenous seats in the Constituent Convention are stuck because Chile Vamos and the Left can't get an accord. The Right doesn't want to add extra seats to the original 155, they want it to reduce the size of the districts to give some reserved seats because they assume they will electorally profit from that. The left wants to add 24 seats in a nationwide district probably because of the opposite reasons.
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kaoras
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« Reply #5 on: November 16, 2020, 07:36:22 AM »

Two new polls came out today and it seems that Chile has indeed found his populist star: deputy Pamela Jiles (Humanist Party-PH, Left) that has spearheaded the bill for the second withdrawal of private pension's funds.

According to Cadem* she is the most popular politician in the country with 65% approval and is starting to go up, from 1 to 4% in presidential preferences. Mind you that the leader of that poll is Lavín with 10% and the leader of the Left is Jadue with 7%, so in perspective, it isn't a bad % at all.

In the Activa Research poll, she even beats Jadue for second place. Is Lavín 13,3%, Jiles 9,6% (+4,4) and Jadue 8,7%. (Though she is still third among LV behind Jadue).

I'm pretty sure that Cadem must have changed its methodology or something because the number of undecideds in their poll went down 20 points in a week but whatever.
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kaoras
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« Reply #6 on: November 23, 2020, 08:18:39 PM »

Presidential polling.

You would vote in the primary of...?

Chile Vamos: 21%
Broad Front+Communist Party:19%
DC+PS+PPD+PR (Constituent Unity basically): 18%

Chile Vamos' Primary

Evelyn Matthei (UDI) 33%
Joaquin Lavin (UDI) 27%
Sebastian Sichel (ind) 22%
Mario Desbordes (RN) 9%
Felipe Kast 7%.

In a scenario, with a common primary with Jose Antonio Kast (Republican Party) it would be Lavin 25%, Matthei 22%, JAK 19%. Without Matthei nor JAK, Lavin leads Sichel 34-30%.

kinda-Constituent Unity Primary


Francisco Vidal (PPD) 26%
Ximena Rincón (DC) 17%
Marco Enriquez Ominami (PRO) 17%
Heraldo Muñoz (PPD) 14%
Jose Miguel Insulsa (PS) 4%
Carlos Montes (PS) 4%

FA and Communist Party (PC)
Daniel Jadue (PC) 44%
Pamela Jiles (PH, which is neither FA nor PC but whatever) 37%
Beatris Sanchez (ind) 15%

United opposition Primary }
Pamela Jiles (PH) 28%
Daniel Jadue (PC) 25%
Francisco Vidal (PPD) 11%
Ximena Rincón (DC) 8%
Beatriz Sanchez (ind) 8%
Heraldo Muñoz (PPD) 3%
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Mike88
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« Reply #7 on: November 23, 2020, 08:24:08 PM »

How is it possible that Matthei is leading in the primary poll? Do Chile Vamos voters want just to prove something or do they want to blow up their chances in the election?
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kaoras
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« Reply #8 on: November 23, 2020, 08:41:40 PM »
« Edited: November 23, 2020, 08:53:57 PM by kaoras »

There's also a lot of runoff polling that I can be bothered to put.
The most interesting ones are:
Lavin 36%-Jiles 36%
Lavín 36%-Jadue 32%
Jadue 35%-Matthei 34%
Jiles 44%-Matthei 32%

Basically, Lavín and Jiles are more competitive in the general election but honestly is too early to do runoff polling.

Some commentary: Chile Vamos really shouldn't be in a 3-way tie in coalition intention, especially considering it is CADEM, but well, yeah, if you look outside the window it really isn't that hard to imagine. Lavin is also weak with the right primary electorate but he isn't doomed either. I still think Matthei ends up winning (also, JAK is running alone, that's almost sure)

Constituent Unity simply isn't going to have a name that polls well until they do actual campaigning. They should accept that fact. Vidal leads because as I said he is almost as prevalent on TV as Lavín and Jadue, but in a real primary is really uncertain who would win. Also, Ximena Rincón (from the leftist faction) seems poised to crush Alberto Undurraga (conservative faction) in the DC internal. Let's see if she doesn't abandon her positions as soon she is proclaimed like Carolina Goic.

In the FA+PC Beatris Sanchez is basically dead and leftists seem to prefer Jadue to Jiles. The thing is that Jiles also appeals to non-ideological voters which is a big advantage (Ironically Jadue would probably be more moderate in actual government)
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kaoras
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« Reply #9 on: November 23, 2020, 08:46:14 PM »
« Edited: November 23, 2020, 08:52:51 PM by kaoras »

How is it possible that Matthei is leading in the primary poll? Do Chile Vamos voters want just to prove something or do they want to blow up their chances in the election?

I mean, Lavín doesn't seem to have any coherent principles. He literally labeled himself a social-democrat some months ago. I think you understand how well that went with the right. That very statement was what led to Matthei candidacy. Lavín is basically populist-posturing to a degree almost unfathomable to the right's base, and also talking a lot about doing a national unity government and consensus, etc. (although I don't believe for a second he would actually govern any more sanely than Piñera)

Speaking of Piñera, he decided to oppose the second withdrawal of the private pension funds and go to the Constitutional Tribunal to stop it (because it seems the government is destined to an even more spectacular defeat in Congress). But a lot of inflammatory rhetoric is coming from government ministers and if the withdrawal is stopped by the TC things could get very ugly really quickly.
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Mike88
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« Reply #10 on: November 23, 2020, 08:58:32 PM »

How is it possible that Matthei is leading in the primary poll? Do Chile Vamos voters want just to prove something or do they want to blow up their chances in the election?

I mean, Lavín doesn't seem to have any coherent principles. He literally labeled himself a social-democrat some months ago. I think you understand how well that went with the right. That very statement was what led to Matthei candidacy. Lavín is basically populist-posturing to a degree almost unfathomable to the right's base, and also talking a lot about doing a national unity government and consensus, etc. (I don't believe for a second he would actually govern any more sanely than Piñera, no matter how much lipstick you put to an UDI, he is still an UDI)
Well, I've read that Lavín is very to left is social issues, gay marriage/gay adoption, but I didn't realized he's a bit everywhere. I understand perfectly the social-democrat thing on the right, here in Portugal it has an almost 50 year discussion. Nonetheless, don't know if that's your view, but Matthei seems, to me at least, deeply unelectable although this can change if the left continues deeply divided.
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kaoras
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« Reply #11 on: November 23, 2020, 09:06:13 PM »

Yeah, Matthei is basically doomed. I would say that any rightist candidate is doomed tbh, including Lavin. This government is basically every day trying not to collapse upon itself.

Obviously knowing the Chilean Left is almost guaranteed to do their best to make the election competitive and sabotage each other, but even then I still cannot imagine the right winning a second term after all of this.

But this country is primed for a populist insurgent takeover. It could be Jiles, it could be some random dude who appears next year. I think the real question is if Chile is going full populism or the (serious) leftist parties will manage to achieve some semblance of coherence and put forward some kind of political project that could lead the country. I honestly would not put much stock on the latter.
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Mike88
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« Reply #12 on: November 23, 2020, 09:18:39 PM »

Yeah, Matthei is basically doomed. I would say that any rightist candidate is doomed tbh, including Lavin. This government is basically every day trying not to collapse upon itself.

Obviously knowing the Chilean Left is almost guaranteed to do their best to make the election competitive and sabotage each other, but even then I still cannot imagine the right winning a second term after all of this.

But this country is primed for a populist insurgent takeover. It could be Jiles, it could be some random dude who appears next year. I think the real question is if Chile is going full populism or the (serious) leftist parties will manage to achieve some semblance of coherence and put forward some kind of political project that could lead the country. I honestly would not put much stock on the latter.
If the right/center-right is completely hopeless, it would be positive for the left/center-left to have a coherent/strong strategy and put their act together as a populism drift would be a mistake, IMO. Latin America is full of examples of populists and we know how many of them ended.
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kaoras
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« Reply #13 on: November 24, 2020, 08:03:13 PM »
« Edited: November 24, 2020, 08:09:32 PM by kaoras »

Tres Quintos (Chile's Fruna version of 538 Chileans will appreciate this joke) released a base projection for the Constituent Convention election. It is based on 2017 parliamentary results and considers the current political alliances and the effects of social uprising.

Constituent Unity (DC-PPD-PS-PR-PRO) -Centre Left:  68 seats (66-75)
Chile Vamos (UDI-RN-EVO-PRI) - Right: 64 seats (60-70)
Chile Digno (PC-FRVS-IC-PI) - Left: 10 seats (8-15)
Frente Amplio (RD-PL-C-CS) -Left: 9 (8-15)
Republican Party - Far Right: 1 seat (0-3)
Humanist Party - Left: 1 seat (0-3)
Ecologist Party -Left: 1 seat (0-3)
No Neutrales - Center leftish independent list: 1 seat (0-3)

The left would get 90 seats, 14 short of the 2/3 majority they want. Tres Quintos does not give a vote share but claims that the left would get over 60% of the vote but just 56% of seats

I think this projection is fine considering the amount of info available at the moment, even if I think it overshoots the right as a whole but underestimates the Republican Party. Most likely the humanist and ecologist will join some alliance and I think there will be a fair share of independents, but that's impossible to project in advance.

More details (and district per district breakdown) here: https://tresquintos.cl/constituyentes2021/
 
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kaoras
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« Reply #14 on: November 27, 2020, 03:57:36 PM »
« Edited: November 27, 2020, 04:16:19 PM by kaoras »

Primaries for mayoral and governor elections are this Saturday! And nobody cares! Honestly, we could be looking at like 2-3% participation among available voters and I'm being totally serious. Anything more than 5% would totally shock me.

Despite that, the parties are still going to use these results as leverage for negotiations for the next elections so here are the things worth checking:

  • Comparison of turnout between the different primaries. Especially between FA and Constituent Unity (and especially in the Metropolitan Region)because it will inevitably affect deals for the municipal elections. FA already said that they expect less turnout in their primaries because they have weaker party machines, but if the difference is too noticeable or if they surpass Constituent Unity then it will have a great effect
  • The balance of power within Constituen Unity, especially between PS and DC. Both of them expect to win between 4 or 6 regions. If PS clearly wins, then that could facilitate deals with the rest of the left. If the DC is the big winner then they could try to revive the Concertación and rule out deals with FA and the communist
  • In the Right, in the mayoral primary in their ultra-rich stronghold of Vitacura is kinda a standoff between Matthei and Lavín. Matthei supports EVOPOLI candidate Camila Merino while Lavín supports UDI candidate Pablo Zalaquett

As for predictions, well, who knows, turnout is going to be so low it really depends on who has the best machine. The only contest I'm somewhat knowledgeable about is Los Ríos Constituent Unity's gubernatorial primary which I classify as Lean PS.
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kaoras
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« Reply #15 on: November 29, 2020, 05:37:33 PM »
« Edited: November 29, 2020, 05:44:58 PM by kaoras »

Counting is almost done but some quick comments:

Pitiful Turnout as expected (I think is less than 5%?)

In Constituent Unity DC is having a very good night. Winning handily the Metropolitan Region and is going to get 6 candidates nominated (out of 16 regions). PS gets 4.

Frente Amplio is beating Constituent Unity in turnout in their stronghold of Valparaiso but is getting crushed everywhere else where they competed (especially in the Metropolitan Region, which I suspect is in no small part because of crossover vote for the DC in the wealthy municipalities where the right did mayoral primaries - they did not do primaries for governor there)  

The only 3-way contest in governors was Tarapacá, where Constituent Unity is beating the other alliances (and FA is almost tied with Chile Vamos...) In general, where Constituent Unity faced Chile Vamos they won (save for Los Rios, but hey, PS won there as I predicted) but is not a blowout or anything. Still, I would say that these are bad results for the right (for the state of their machines more exactly)

In Vitacura is still early (20%) but Camila Merino (Evopoli, backed by Matthei) is ahead with Zalaquet (UDI, endorsed by Lavin) in third place...
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kaoras
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« Reply #16 on: December 03, 2020, 08:15:08 PM »
« Edited: December 03, 2020, 08:29:34 PM by kaoras »

Well, the dust has settled, so let's analyze the results.

Overall, turnout was like 2.5% in governors and 4% in mayoral. So, what I expected lol. Still, even then not all these results can be explained by machines.

Constituent Unity

The winners in each region ordered from North to South.

Is missing that the Independent in Atacama was endorsed by the DC. So overall it would be: DC 7, PS 5.5- PPD 2.5, PRO 1. Big win for the DC, taking the biggest price: The Metropolitan Region (Margin inflated by crossover vote by the right's primaries, but would have still won without that).
PS almost match them in the number of wins, but in smaller regions, mostly in the south. PPD I think is on the way to becoming the new PR.

Overall the coalition won in turnout in every region of the country where there were multiple primaries, save for Los Ríos (Chile Vamos) and Valparaiso (Frente Amplio).

Chile Vamos

Literally, no one won. RN crushed UDI in governors going 5 out of 7 regions (UDI got 2) but did badly in mayors (losing Vitacura and all the other fancy prices) and the dissidence to the current directive is calling for anticipated internal elections again.  At least Evopoli is pleased with their results, especially in Vitacura.

Overall I would say that the results are low-key awful for the right. They got beaten by Constituent Unity almost everywhere and tied with FA in Tarapacá in governors which is the second most right-wing region of the country. This does not bode well for the upcoming elections.

Frente Amplio

Is awfully clear that FA isn't becoming the biggest left wing force in the country any time soon and probably never. Revolución Democratica, until now clearly the biggest party, was the big loser, they did decently in mayors but only won one region (out of 4) and lost in the Metropolitan Region to the more leftwing Comunes (who won 2 regions). The Liberal Party did well in vote share but didn't won anything. The coalition continues to show strength in Valparaíso which until not so long was a right-leaning region.

Main Takeways:

Left Unity is dead: It was never alive, to begin with, but with Constituent Unity turning to the centre with the strength of the DC and FA doing the same but leftwards with the victory of Comunes.
Is clear now that FA is going to form a "left pole" with the Communist Party. This is, and will continue to cause an internal crisis. 2 deputies left RD today over this seemingly inevitable course and PL seems ready to ditch them (they are going to evaluate their continuity in the coalition tomorrow) (maybe joining Constituent Unity?).

The Concertación is Back: Constituent Unity most likely will become a full-fledged coalition instead of this weird electoral pact that currently is. DC is delighted, PS doesn't seem very comfortable but has basically reached the conclusion that FA cannot be trusted and will probably just roll with it. Everyone else really doesn't have the strength to choose.

The Right should be very worried: Until now they have been banking on the left wing chaos to remain in power. These results aren't worth much with so low turnout, but they seem to indicate that they will likely end up beaten by Constituent Unity anyway. Maybe they could fearmonger their way up to a third of the seats in the Constituent Convention but it could be a bloodbath in the municipal. Several polls have Lavín tied with Jiles in second place behind Jadue and coalition identification polling is showing them 3 way tied with UC and FA which is terrible for them.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #17 on: December 04, 2020, 04:18:20 AM »

How the f**k is DC surging back to relevance now, of all times? From everything I've seen, they are an utterly useless moderate-hero party that stands up for nothing but the (increasingly hated) status quo. They seem like the last party that would benefit from this political climate.
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kaoras
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« Reply #18 on: December 04, 2020, 06:52:17 AM »
« Edited: December 04, 2020, 06:55:54 AM by kaoras »

How the f**k is DC surging back to relevance now, of all times? From everything I've seen, they are an utterly useless moderate-hero party that stands up for nothing but the (increasingly hated) status quo. They seem like the last party that would benefit from this political climate.

Well, in this election in particular everyone, including me, underestimated the state of the DC's machine. PS and PPD only coordinated in Valparaíso (where they won) because they assumed the DC had declined more or less to their level. They were wrong. If they (and some other progressive parties) had united in the Metropolitan Region they could have argued that DC triumph happened only because of the rightist vote and would have won in several other places like Bio-Bio.

More generally, is basically FA's fault. PS, in particular, has tried hard to avoid a new Concertación because they hated DC's unloyalty under Bachelet's government but FA itself is too chaotic to reach agreements and many elements within them don't want leftist unity. Constituent Unity exists basically because FA went to inscribe their primaries when they were still negotiating unity primaries among all the left. Chile Vamos has the presidency of the Chamber of deputies because FA couldn't keep their ranks in line and the most recent attempt to regain control failed because of former FA members (Pamela Jiles among them ironically). All of this has pushed PS to an alliance with DC again. And at this point is hard to blame them. Some weeks ago I talked to my mom (a lifelong communist) about the possibility of PS allying with FA instead of DC and she said "Why? they are a fraud too". Honestly, I can not stress enough how much the center-left base (the ones who still voted New Majority in 2017) hates, hates, the FA, me included.
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« Reply #19 on: December 04, 2020, 09:06:41 AM »

I noticed this is how the Unidad Constituyente logo looks like:



Does the pinwheel have any sort of special meaning in Chile or are they just trying to make themselves look more left wing by copying the old Juntos Podemos Más logo?
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kaoras
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« Reply #20 on: December 04, 2020, 10:02:46 AM »

I noticed this is how the Unidad Constituyente logo looks like:



Does the pinwheel have any sort of special meaning in Chile or are they just trying to make themselves look more left wing by copying the old Juntos Podemos Más logo?

I doubt anyone outside geeks like us remembers the Juntos Podemos logo or Juntos Podemos very existence. Tongue . The pinwheel is probably just that a graphic designer got lazy and copied it.

The colour choice is extremely weird to me though because they are usually represented in maps as red or as some shade of orange. (But well, New Majority logo was blue so...)
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Velasco
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« Reply #21 on: December 04, 2020, 10:21:56 AM »

I noticed this is how the Unidad Constituyente logo looks like:



Does the pinwheel have any sort of special meaning in Chile or are they just trying to make themselves look more left wing by copying the old Juntos Podemos Más logo?

I doubt anyone outside geeks like us remembers the Juntos Podemos logo or Juntos Podemos very existence. Tongue . The pinwheel is probably just that a graphic designer got lazy and copy it.

The colour choice is extremely weird to me though because they are usually represented in maps as red or as some shade of orange. (But well, New Majority logo was blue so...)

This is either Juntos Podemos Más or the Google Photos logo in blue tones

Regarding the DC folks, I honestly believed they were on the track to disappear. Either it's their merit or the fault of their adversaries and the Chilean left, good for them Tongue What kind of constituency represrnts that old party nowadays?
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« Reply #22 on: December 04, 2020, 10:30:26 AM »

Unidod Constituyente
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kaoras
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« Reply #23 on: December 04, 2020, 10:50:56 AM »

This is either Juntos Podemos Más or the Google Photos logo in blue tones

Regarding the DC folks, I honestly believed they were on the track to disappear. Either it's their merit or the fault of their adversaries and the Chilean left, good for them Tongue What kind of constituency represrnts that old party nowadays?

Well, since they are very old they have a fair amount of party loyalists (though they have a lot more problem keeping that base than the eternally stable PS). They tend to attract moderate voters who dislike the right but they have struggled a lot with that over the years. I know exactly one person that voted DC in 2017 for reasons outside family connections and was basically because he liked Carolina Goic. And that's a big reason why they remain relevant. Politics in Chile are a lot more personality-based than this thread seems to imply.

For example, I know for sure that PS has a better machine in Los Lagos, but the PS candidate there was a nobody while the DC one was a former well-known congressman. They still have plenty of people with a personal appeal all over the country, and due to history and family tradition, they (much like PS) are still able to attract some fresh faces and good quality candidates that keep them alive.

For the record, I still think that the DC long-term prospects don't look good but they still have a base to work with.
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« Reply #24 on: December 04, 2020, 12:05:55 PM »

This is either Juntos Podemos Más or the Google Photos logo in blue tones

Regarding the DC folks, I honestly believed they were on the track to disappear. Either it's their merit or the fault of their adversaries and the Chilean left, good for them Tongue What kind of constituency represrnts that old party nowadays?

Well, since they are very old they have a fair amount of party loyalists (though they have a lot more problem keeping that base than the eternally stable PS). They tend to attract moderate voters who dislike the right but they have struggled a lot with that over the years. I know exactly one person that voted DC in 2017 for reasons outside family connections and was basically because he liked Carolina Goic. And that's a big reason why they remain relevant. Politics in Chile are a lot more personality-based than this thread seems to imply.

For example, I know for sure that PS has a better machine in Los Lagos, but the PS candidate there was a nobody while the DC one was a former well-known congressman. They still have plenty of people with a personal appeal all over the country, and due to history and family tradition, they (much like PS) are still able to attract some fresh faces and good quality candidates that keep them alive.

For the record, I still think that the DC long-term prospects don't look good but they still have a base to work with.

That's resilience.  Quite possibly the DC's future prospects depend on the pervivence of a moderate centre-to-centre-left pole like the Concertacion and its heir Unidad Constituyente. The DC alone is doomed to decline over the years as its loyal base  is increasingly older, but the DC can remain relevant within a greater alliance... or eventually transform itself into something else

Unidad Constituyente primariames to elect candidate for governor of the Santiago Metropolitan Region (newly created post replacing the intendente appointed by the president)

Claudia Orrego (DC) 51.63%
Hella Molina (PPD) 26.03%
Álvaro Erazo (PS) 22.34%


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