Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[kaoras]

In this page they are uploading the consolidated overseas vote:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vT0Z9MXi7G5YFcb-Q_Q8b3afMIQAZm82dQv23rqMiKcsVu3Bw0CTv-oh1MlFQAe3e9cnQULSBDfkjoX/pubhtml?gid=0&single=true

The numbers are not necessarily final, for example in Sweden I'm sure there is just one polling place reported

Looks pretty strong. How do the numbers from this round for the the largest countries (Spain, Germany, etc.) compare with the first round?

Every single large country I have checked Boric is higher than the combined left in the 1st round and Kast doesn't reach Kast+Sichel.

Which is good, but Peru shows that voter movements among the expat community can not carry over to the mainland's trends.  Looking at the spreadsheet, it seems that a lot of the Boric growth comes down to higher voter turnout than in round one, which could be good/bad depending on mainland voter behavior.

Yeah, the first round itself showed that you can't extrapolate patterns in the overseas pattern to the mainland.

[kaoras]

Looking at that, the preliminary conclusion I can make is that while we have basically the same amount of "mesas" adjusted for population, you have less "locales de votación" (schools and the likes). Then again, I could be talking out of my ass since I never really analyzed this in depth

From what you said we at least have better organization of the electoral rolls, having to travel to another part of the city to vote is almost unheard of around here.

To expand on this, I just looked it up and we had a bit more than 100.000 "mesas" while Chile has around 46.000, which roughly corresponds to Argentina having a bit more than double the population of Chile.

But apparently, while Chile has about 2.800 polling places, we had almost 17.000 in our last election.

Yeah, I looked at the precints maps in Argentina and that's how it should be here. You can't even do a precint map since each polling place draws voters from all over the city!

[buritobr]

Not exactly a good reason; next term starts at March 11th, almost three more months.

All the networks are covering how it's 40° at some polling places. Why do some countries have elections in the middle of summer/winter!

Because this countries want that the innauguration take place at the beggining of the year, so that all presidents have full years of administration

So, Chile has a very long lame duck period

[jeron]

In this page they are uploading the consolidated overseas vote:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vT0Z9MXi7G5YFcb-Q_Q8b3afMIQAZm82dQv23rqMiKcsVu3Bw0CTv-oh1MlFQAe3e9cnQULSBDfkjoX/pubhtml?gid=0&single=true

The numbers are not necessarily final, for example in Sweden I'm sure there is just one polling place reported

Looks pretty strong. How do the numbers from this round for the the largest countries (Spain, Germany, etc.) compare with the first round?

In Germany, first round Kast: 12.4%, Sichel 9.1%. Kast in the second round 16.7%
France: First round, Kast 6.9%, Sichel 7.7%, Kast in second round 10.5%
Spain, first round Kast 14.3%, Sichel, 11.3%, Kast in second round 20.9%
UK first round Kast 16.8%, Sichel 18.3%, Kast second round 30.7%

So, Kast doesnt get the entire Sichel vote in Europe and not even half of it in Germany and France

[jeron]

Will there be an exit poll once the polling stations close?

[kaoras]

Will there be an exit poll once the polling stations close?

If it wasn't clear by now, we are way too much of a banana country to have exit polls. A pollster asked SERVEL about doing an exit poll and they said they couldn't because "it violated the privacy of the vote". I'm not kidding.

[jeron]

Will there be an exit poll once the polling stations close?

If it wasn't clear by now, we are way too much of a banana country to have exit polls. A pollster asked SERVEL about doing an exit poll and they said they couldn't because "it violated the privacy of the vote". I'm not kidding.

Haha, that is a shame. As to Chile being a banana country, I cannot judge as i have never been there

[Oryxslayer]

In this page they are uploading the consolidated overseas vote:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vT0Z9MXi7G5YFcb-Q_Q8b3afMIQAZm82dQv23rqMiKcsVu3Bw0CTv-oh1MlFQAe3e9cnQULSBDfkjoX/pubhtml?gid=0&single=true

The numbers are not necessarily final, for example in Sweden I'm sure there is just one polling place reported

Looks pretty strong. How do the numbers from this round for the the largest countries (Spain, Germany, etc.) compare with the first round?

In Germany, first round Kast: 12.4%, Sichel 9.1%. Kast in the second round 16.7%
France: First round, Kast 6.9%, Sichel 7.7%, Kast in second round 10.5%
Spain, first round Kast 14.3%, Sichel, 11.3%, Kast in second round 20.9%
UK first round Kast 16.8%, Sichel 18.3%, Kast second round 30.7%

So, Kast doesnt get the entire Sichel vote in Europe and not even half of it in Germany and France

But that's not the whole story. In most countries Kast is getting all of the combined right vote from R1, or over 90% of it. Turnout it appears is just up and benefiting Boric, but this pushes down the percentage. We don't know if this will carry over to the mainland..yet.

[Double Carpet]

FWIW in the 2017 2nd round overseas voting, Pinera won 39%, so Kast is 20 points below that, but with quite a few countries still to declare.

Utilising Kellner's Law (if opinion polls are wrong, they are almost always wrong in the same direction) I'm going to stick my neck out and say Kast wins with 51% - currently available at 3.6 on the betting market.

[Estrella]

I was in the mood for something masochist, so I decided to watch the franjas for the second round. Obviously both candidates want to appeal to people who are hesitant about voting for them, but it's amusing how desperately they are doing it.

Kast wants to present himself as nice tolerant uncle José who definitely pinky promise isn't a far-right wacko, and so he decided he's going to out-fluff Boric. The ads feature a gay couple who run a hair salon (yes, a Kast ad really contains the phrase "salir de closet no era fácil") who praise Kast for being a good democrat who is going to respect the same-sex marriage law and say they vote for him because Muh Small Business, followed by uncle José monologuing in a garden about tolerance as emotional music plays in the background. Then there is a cheesy pop montage of Kast rallies, with periodic reminders that layer more sheep's clothing on the wolf: someone waving a rainbow flag, Kast wearing Mapuche clothing or posing with a black guy.

Boric, for his part, decided to go after the old concertacionista vote, literally: a birthday party for a hundred and something years old abuela, where she and her similarly-aged friends talk about AFP and dignified pensions. Then there's a montage of people sitting behind what I assume is supposed to be the presidential desk, each saying their designated Nice Guy FF talking point about reactivating the economy, governing with a big heart and such. Somehow there's even less substance to it than there's to Kast ads.

[Estrella]

Judging by the scenes on TV right now, I assume Chile doesn't have a "you can still vote after the polls have closed if you're in line" rule, right?

[jeron]

In this page they are uploading the consolidated overseas vote:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vT0Z9MXi7G5YFcb-Q_Q8b3afMIQAZm82dQv23rqMiKcsVu3Bw0CTv-oh1MlFQAe3e9cnQULSBDfkjoX/pubhtml?gid=0&single=true

The numbers are not necessarily final, for example in Sweden I'm sure there is just one polling place reported

Looks pretty strong. How do the numbers from this round for the the largest countries (Spain, Germany, etc.) compare with the first round?

In Germany, first round Kast: 12.4%, Sichel 9.1%. Kast in the second round 16.7%
France: First round, Kast 6.9%, Sichel 7.7%, Kast in second round 10.5%
Spain, first round Kast 14.3%, Sichel, 11.3%, Kast in second round 20.9%
UK first round Kast 16.8%, Sichel 18.3%, Kast second round 30.7%

So, Kast doesnt get the entire Sichel vote in Europe and not even half of it in Germany and France

But that's not the whole story. In most countries Kast is getting all of the combined right vote from R1, or over 90% of it. Turnout it appears is just up and benefiting Boric, but this pushes down the percentage. We don't know if this will carry over to the mainland..yet.

True, but the right vote is only Kast and Sichel which was about 40-41% in the first round. That means Kast needs 80% of Parisi voters

[Double Carpet]

Great that we're being shown live vote counting, but how about some context? How did these stations vote in R2 2017? Or R1 2021? Raw vote totals on their own are a bit meaningless

[kaoras]

Boric is winning the mesas in Antofagasta that the TV is showing.

In a mesa where Parisi got 61%, Boric won 60-40.

[DavidB.]

Won't be close. Boric will get 55% or up.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Boric is winning the mesas in Antofagasta that the TV is showing.

In a mesa where Parisi got 61%, Boric won 60-40.

BORIC TIME

[Sadader]

Seems a little early to have much confidence over a Boric victory, no?

[kaoras]

Seems a little early to have much confidence over a Boric victory, no?

Yep, at this stage you can still cherry-pick stuff. Let's wait for the first real results from SERVEL.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Seems a little early to have much confidence over a Boric victory, no?

We have to uphold our local traditions on Atlas, don’t we?

[kaoras]

Kast 52-48 over Boric in the first results from Chile proper, but they are heavily from pro-kast regions.

[Keep Calm and ...]

Thank you so much for all the info, kaoras.

Is there any link where we can follow international results? NZ results look very good for Boric.

https://tresquintos.cl/votoexterior/

[H. Ross Peron]

Won't be close. Boric will get 55% or up.

Based.

[kaoras]

I've seen enough. Boric won.

[Logical]

3.67% Reported
Boric 53.44%
Kast 46.56%

It's done. Boric will finish above 55%.

[Mike88]

If I recall correctly, on the 1st round, Kast had a big lead over Boric in the first returns. If it's like this now, it's basically over, yep.

Also, it will be the first time that the 2nd placed in the 1st round, wins in the 2nd round in Chile, right?