Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[Mike88]

How is it possible that Matthei is leading in the primary poll? Do Chile Vamos voters want just to prove something or do they want to blow up their chances in the election?

[Mike88]

How is it possible that Matthei is leading in the primary poll? Do Chile Vamos voters want just to prove something or do they want to blow up their chances in the election?

I mean, Lavín doesn't seem to have any coherent principles. He literally labeled himself a social-democrat some months ago. I think you understand how well that went with the right. That very statement was what led to Matthei candidacy. Lavín is basically populist-posturing to a degree almost unfathomable to the right's base, and also talking a lot about doing a national unity government and consensus, etc. (I don't believe for a second he would actually govern any more sanely than Piñera, no matter how much lipstick you put to an UDI, he is still an UDI)

Well, I've read that Lavín is very to left is social issues, gay marriage/gay adoption, but I didn't realized he's a bit everywhere. I understand perfectly the social-democrat thing on the right, here in Portugal it has an almost 50 year discussion. Nonetheless, don't know if that's your view, but Matthei seems, to me at least, deeply unelectable although this can change if the left continues deeply divided.

[Mike88]

Yeah, Matthei is basically doomed. I would say that any rightist candidate is doomed tbh, including Lavin. This government is basically every day trying not to collapse upon itself.

Obviously knowing the Chilean Left is almost guaranteed to do their best to make the election competitive and sabotage each other, but even then I still cannot imagine the right winning a second term after all of this.

But this country is primed for a populist insurgent takeover. It could be Jiles, it could be some random dude who appears next year. I think the real question is if Chile is going full populism or the (serious) leftist parties will manage to achieve some semblance of coherence and put forward some kind of political project that could lead the country. I honestly would not put much stock on the latter.

If the right/center-right is completely hopeless, it would be positive for the left/center-left to have a coherent/strong strategy and put their act together as a populism drift would be a mistake, IMO. Latin America is full of examples of populists and we know how many of them ended.

[Mike88]

Any reports about turnout?

[Mike88]

Will there be exit polls/predictions when polls close at 6PM (local time)?

[Mike88]

Other live feeds:

TVN Chile
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nhU5Tgie9-4

T13
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vE6owBg1FU877

*Is it me or isn't TVN using the UK ITV 2010 general election theme? xD

[Mike88]

La Lista del Pueblo doing really really good.

Indeed, although it is still early. They have 14% of the votes so far, but the Independents results are way above what was expected.

[Mike88]

I know it is very very early but it seems Vamos Por Chile is winning a plurality? (Admittedly a weak one)

I thought the Chilean right was in a horrible spot?

It seems that they will in fact with a very small plurality, however, from what I'm hearing in the TV broadcasts, it's a disastrous result for Vamos por Chile as they are well bellow 30%. IMO, the divisions on the left are benefiting Vamos por Chile, but it's still an abysmal result, so far, for them.

[Mike88]

Results with 8.3% of the vote (lower than SERVEL)

The results are the same in SERVEL, from what I'm seeing. The 8.3% number is the turnout, right?

[Mike88]

It seems that Evelyn Matthei could be in danger in her mayoral race. They just showed a precinct where she got 110 votes against the 108 votes of her challenger.

[Mike88]

RN is almost at civil war because half of the party is supporting Sichel over Mario Desbordes. There are internal elections this Sunday for party president and Desbordes face senator Francisco Chahuán of the pro-Sichel/Allamand wing. There are also elections for the party's general council and the Desbordes faction could lose control.

Isn't Lavin the favourite to win the Chile Vamos coalition primary?

[Mike88]

RN is almost at civil war because half of the party is supporting Sichel over Mario Desbordes. There are internal elections this Sunday for party president and Desbordes face senator Francisco Chahuán of the pro-Sichel/Allamand wing. There are also elections for the party's general council and the Desbordes faction could lose control.

Isn't Lavin the favourite to win the Chile Vamos coalition primary?

Yes, but Sichel is not that far behind since Lavin's postpartisan gimmick doesn't sit well with the primary electorate. There are two other significant factors there though. One is that Sichel has been championed by the most establishment and orthodox wing of the right resistant to any changes to the model. For leftists, he comes across basically as a puppet of the economic elite. This is a contrast with Desbordes who has always been open to more populist economic measures and isn't inmobilist (the "social right"). But perhaps almost as important, Allamand and a lot of people in RN also happen to hate Desbordes for petty reasons and support Sichel to undermine him.

Do you think that these tensions within RN could, in the advent of a Lavin win, make Sichel run as an Independent?

[Mike88]

RN is almost at civil war because half of the party is supporting Sichel over Mario Desbordes. There are internal elections this Sunday for party president and Desbordes face senator Francisco Chahuán of the pro-Sichel/Allamand wing. There are also elections for the party's general council and the Desbordes faction could lose control.

Isn't Lavin the favourite to win the Chile Vamos coalition primary?

Yes, but Sichel is not that far behind since Lavin's postpartisan gimmick doesn't sit well with the primary electorate. There are two other significant factors there though. One is that Sichel has been championed by the most establishment and orthodox wing of the right resistant to any changes to the model. For leftists, he comes across basically as a puppet of the economic elite. This is a contrast with Desbordes who has always been open to more populist economic measures and isn't inmobilist (the "social right"). But perhaps almost as important, Allamand and a lot of people in RN also happen to hate Desbordes for petty reasons and support Sichel to undermine him.

Do you think that these tensions within RN could, in the advent of a Lavin win, make Sichel run as an Independent?

Sichel is legally barred from running if he loses the primary so no chance, is now or never.

Ah, I wasn't aware of that.

[Mike88]

Is there an official site to follow the results?

[Mike88]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_QV86Yqq7sM

Live counting in Punta Arenas


For official results:

https://www.servelelecciones.cl

Thanks!! I'm also watching that live feed of the counting. I always find amusing this Chilean tradition of filming the vote counting.

[Mike88]

Just a clarification, sorry for the comparison, but the Boric vs Jardue race is basically the same as a Left Bloc vs Communist Party race in my country, right?

[Mike88]

Just a clarification, sorry for the comparison, but the Boric vs Jardue race is basically the same as a Left Bloc vs Communist Party race in my country, right?

Yes, pretty much.

Thanks. So the results so far, still very, very early, on both sides are quite good for Provoste, it seems.

[Mike88]

Just a clarification, sorry for the comparison, but the Boric vs Jardue race is basically the same as a Left Bloc vs Communist Party race in my country, right?

Yes, pretty much.

Thanks. So the results so far, still very, very early, on both sides are quite good for Provoste, it seems.

Actually there were some rumours about Provoste not even bothering if the winners were Boric and Sichel, the source is not really reliable but the consensus is that the best scenario for Provoste is Jadue-Lavín.

Interesting. In the eventuality she doesn't run and the center-left opt out, who would she endorse? Sichel, maybe, right? as he was in the past from PDC.

Yes, and parallels don't end there, you can say this is the same as the Left Bloc vs CDU, as the Communist Party is allied with the Social Green Regionalist Federation, which is a very nasty and corrupt party, but is an interesting coincidence (if you see them like a Green Party)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Green_Regionalist_Federation

Poor PEV, the satelite party of PCP, they wished to be just a bit corrupt.  Just kidding, but they are very irrelevant. That party, the Social Green Regionalist Federation, at least contested elections on its own, PEV never did that.

Why are they seen as very corrupt?

[Mike88]

Hmm.. right. So things are still quite open. Narváez seems not very popular, at least in polling but, once again, polling in Chile seems to be more and more unreliable.

FREVS is basically a loose collection of ex-concertación machines and got caught in a very nasty affair with a group of mayors tied to narcotraphic in their process of expansion to Santiago.

Jesus!! What the hell!?

[Mike88]

We are done here. Is Sichel-Boric. Chilean polling shines once more

Yeah, completely useless. They should find other means of employment

[Mike88]

Sichel is inching closer and closer to 50%.

Also, Chile Vamos turnout is at 239,915 and Apruebo Dignidad at 276,458. (46.5-53.5%)

[Mike88]

In the feed I'm watching, 24horas.cl, they are saying that there were center-right voters who voted for Boric in order to defeat Jardue.

[Mike88]

In the feed I'm watching, 24horas.cl, they are saying that there were center-right voters who voted for Boric in order to defeat Jardue.

Yeah, the turnout difference in D11 say otherwise. Is spin to explain why AD beat them in turnout.

I was hearing and I also though it didn't made sense as many center-left voters from PDC, PS, PPD, could have also decided to vote in those primaries.

[Mike88]

Cadem released a confidential poll conducted during last week:

ChV primary:

39% Sichel
30% Lavín
13% Briones
10% Desbordes

AD primary:

53% Boric
43% Jadue

Presidential election:

15% Sichel
12% Boric
11% Lavín
11% Jadue
  9% Provoste
  8% Jiles
  6% Kast
  5% Parisi
  4% Desbordes
  3% Briones
  2% Narváez
  1% Maldonado

Poll conducted between 14 and 15 July 2021. Polled 3,200 voters.

[Mike88]

If it was literally any pollster but CADEM I would be more inclined to believe them that akshually our banned polls were right, but they have been a laughingstock since their foundation and politicians keep dancing around it.

Hmm.. so CADEM is the Chilean version of Rasmussen?