CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS MEGA THREAD

[SevenEleven]

So, looks like NJ-07 is sadly over

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/malinowski-defeats-kean-in-close-race/

I will say, Kean put up a good fight and did very well. He way outperformed Trump, and got much closer than most people were expecting him to. I guess it was just a tough year for him to run with Trump's unpopularity in the district. Still ridiculous that it took two weeks to get a final call from this race.

Huh. I'd trade Christy Smith for Malinowski lol. Looks like we both end up disappointed.

Why? Christy Smith is a chronic underperformer. I'd rather cede CA-25 to the useless empty suit who will fall victim to redistricting than allow Kean to start rising the ranks.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

So, looks like NJ-07 is sadly over

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/malinowski-defeats-kean-in-close-race/

I will say, Kean put up a good fight and did very well. He way outperformed Trump, and got much closer than most people were expecting him to. I guess it was just a tough year for him to run with Trump's unpopularity in the district. Still ridiculous that it took two weeks to get a final call from this race.

Huh. I'd trade Christy Smith for Malinowski lol. Looks like we both end up disappointed.

Why? Christy Smith is a chronic underperformer. I'd rather cede CA-25 to the useless empty suit who will fall victim to redistricting than allow Kean to start rising the ranks.

Malinowski may very well be DOA in 2022 so I'd rather he go than Smith. I'd rather Brindisi go than either (Brindisi v Katko in 2022 is the best we can hope for but  I'm not super optimistic.)

Redistricting is promising for CA-25 regardless, but I'd be curious to see what parts of LA County Smith is doing best in (North SFV, Antelope Valley, or Santa Clarita) before making a final judgement.

Also, it's just embarrassing to have part of LA County be represented by a Republican.

[Xing]

So, looks like NJ-07 is over

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/malinowski-defeats-kean-in-close-race/

I will say, Kean put up a good fight and did very well.

Damn it, poor Kean, always a bridge too far.

Yeah, it's disappointing. This is my home district and I was really rooting for him. But Mike's looking pretty good!

I’ll give you credit for calling that it would be a close race.

[SevenEleven]

So, looks like NJ-07 is sadly over

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/malinowski-defeats-kean-in-close-race/

I will say, Kean put up a good fight and did very well. He way outperformed Trump, and got much closer than most people were expecting him to. I guess it was just a tough year for him to run with Trump's unpopularity in the district. Still ridiculous that it took two weeks to get a final call from this race.

Huh. I'd trade Christy Smith for Malinowski lol. Looks like we both end up disappointed.

Why? Christy Smith is a chronic underperformer. I'd rather cede CA-25 to the useless empty suit who will fall victim to redistricting than allow Kean to start rising the ranks.

Malinowski may very well be DOA in 2022 so I'd rather he go than Smith. I'd rather Brindisi go than either (Brindisi v Katko in 2022 is the best we can hope for but  I'm not super optimistic.)

Redistricting is promising for CA-25 regardless, but I'd be curious to see what parts of LA County Smith is doing best in (North SFV, Antelope Valley, or Santa Clarita) before making a final judgement.

Also, it's just embarrassing to have part of LA County be represented by a Republican.

I mean...I'd say Santa Clarita and SFV are likely her strongest showings. But outside of a brief stint of Katie Hill, there's always been LA county Republicans. In fact, there's a much larger and more Dem-leaning supervisor district that has a Republican and not too long ago Don Knabe was a thing.

[Roll Roons]

So, looks like NJ-07 is sadly over

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/malinowski-defeats-kean-in-close-race/

I will say, Kean put up a good fight and did very well. He way outperformed Trump, and got much closer than most people were expecting him to. I guess it was just a tough year for him to run with Trump's unpopularity in the district. Still ridiculous that it took two weeks to get a final call from this race.

Huh. I'd trade Christy Smith for Malinowski lol. Looks like we both end up disappointed.

Why? Christy Smith is a chronic underperformer. I'd rather cede CA-25 to the useless empty suit who will fall victim to redistricting than allow Kean to start rising the ranks.

Malinowski may very well be DOA in 2022 so I'd rather he go than Smith. I'd rather Brindisi go than either (Brindisi v Katko in 2022 is the best we can hope for but  I'm not super optimistic.)

Redistricting is promising for CA-25 regardless, but I'd be curious to see what parts of LA County Smith is doing best in (North SFV, Antelope Valley, or Santa Clarita) before making a final judgement.

Also, it's just embarrassing to have part of LA County be represented by a Republican.

Kevin McCarthy's district actually includes a sliver of it!

[Storr]

As the days go on, it really seems like the dems didn’t do that bad in the house

They didn’t lose any seats that were unacceptable

FL-27 was an unacceptable loss.  Biden won that district.

Do you have a source for how individual Congressional districts voted in the Presidential race? I wonder how many districts voted for Biden but were flipped by Republicans.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

So, looks like NJ-07 is sadly over

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/malinowski-defeats-kean-in-close-race/

I will say, Kean put up a good fight and did very well. He way outperformed Trump, and got much closer than most people were expecting him to. I guess it was just a tough year for him to run with Trump's unpopularity in the district. Still ridiculous that it took two weeks to get a final call from this race.

Huh. I'd trade Christy Smith for Malinowski lol. Looks like we both end up disappointed.

Why? Christy Smith is a chronic underperformer. I'd rather cede CA-25 to the useless empty suit who will fall victim to redistricting than allow Kean to start rising the ranks.

Malinowski may very well be DOA in 2022 so I'd rather he go than Smith. I'd rather Brindisi go than either (Brindisi v Katko in 2022 is the best we can hope for but  I'm not super optimistic.)

Redistricting is promising for CA-25 regardless, but I'd be curious to see what parts of LA County Smith is doing best in (North SFV, Antelope Valley, or Santa Clarita) before making a final judgement.

Also, it's just embarrassing to have part of LA County be represented by a Republican.

I mean...I'd say Santa Clarita and SFV are likely her strongest showings. But outside of a brief stint of Katie Hill, there's always been LA county Republicans. In fact, there's a much larger and more Dem-leaning supervisor district that has a Republican and not too long ago Don Knabe was a thing.

Gosh I'd forgot about Don Knabe. End of an era. But yeah, I know.

Fwiw, Palmdale/Lancaster have traditionally voted left of Santa Clarita, but they're trending in opposite directions so I'd be curious to see how things end up.

[SevenEleven]

So, looks like NJ-07 is sadly over

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/malinowski-defeats-kean-in-close-race/

I will say, Kean put up a good fight and did very well. He way outperformed Trump, and got much closer than most people were expecting him to. I guess it was just a tough year for him to run with Trump's unpopularity in the district. Still ridiculous that it took two weeks to get a final call from this race.

Huh. I'd trade Christy Smith for Malinowski lol. Looks like we both end up disappointed.

Why? Christy Smith is a chronic underperformer. I'd rather cede CA-25 to the useless empty suit who will fall victim to redistricting than allow Kean to start rising the ranks.

Malinowski may very well be DOA in 2022 so I'd rather he go than Smith. I'd rather Brindisi go than either (Brindisi v Katko in 2022 is the best we can hope for but  I'm not super optimistic.)

Redistricting is promising for CA-25 regardless, but I'd be curious to see what parts of LA County Smith is doing best in (North SFV, Antelope Valley, or Santa Clarita) before making a final judgement.

Also, it's just embarrassing to have part of LA County be represented by a Republican.

I mean...I'd say Santa Clarita and SFV are likely her strongest showings. But outside of a brief stint of Katie Hill, there's always been LA county Republicans. In fact, there's a much larger and more Dem-leaning supervisor district that has a Republican and not too long ago Don Knabe was a thing.

Gosh I'd forgot about Don Knabe. End of an era. But yeah, I know.

Fwiw, Palmdale/Lancaster have traditionally voted left of Santa Clarita, but they're trending in opposite directions so I'd be curious to see how things end up.

I think you'll see the educated suburbanites vs exurban minorities trends reveal themselves here. But yeah, I still think Smith wins tbh and as I said before, if she doesn't, literally any other candidate will win in 2022. I'd wager a large number of Hispanics and AAs in the Antelope Valley are actually homeowners vs renters.

[lfromnj]

So, looks like NJ-07 is sadly over

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/malinowski-defeats-kean-in-close-race/

I will say, Kean put up a good fight and did very well. He way outperformed Trump, and got much closer than most people were expecting him to. I guess it was just a tough year for him to run with Trump's unpopularity in the district. Still ridiculous that it took two weeks to get a final call from this race.

Huh. I'd trade Christy Smith for Malinowski lol. Looks like we both end up disappointed.

Why? Christy Smith is a chronic underperformer. I'd rather cede CA-25 to the useless empty suit who will fall victim to redistricting than allow Kean to start rising the ranks.

Malinowski may very well be DOA in 2022 so I'd rather he go than Smith. I'd rather Brindisi go than either (Brindisi v Katko in 2022 is the best we can hope for but  I'm not super optimistic.)

Redistricting is promising for CA-25 regardless, but I'd be curious to see what parts of LA County Smith is doing best in (North SFV, Antelope Valley, or Santa Clarita) before making a final judgement.

Also, it's just embarrassing to have part of LA County be represented by a Republican.

I mean...I'd say Santa Clarita and SFV are likely her strongest showings. But outside of a brief stint of Katie Hill, there's always been LA county Republicans. In fact, there's a much larger and more Dem-leaning supervisor district that has a Republican and not too long ago Don Knabe was a thing.

Gosh I'd forgot about Don Knabe. End of an era. But yeah, I know.

Fwiw, Palmdale/Lancaster have traditionally voted left of Santa Clarita, but they're trending in opposite directions so I'd be curious to see how things end up.

I think you'll see the educated suburbanites vs exurban minorities trends reveal themselves here. But yeah, I still think Smith wins tbh and as I said before, if she doesn't, literally any other candidate will win in 2022.

Whats your data reason for Smith winning?

Just optimism?


Pretty sure you said the GOP would lose all of CA 48/CA 39/CA21/CA25 on election night or the day after IIRC because late mail in ballots would trend D despite prior data showing in the special election there wasn't any specific trend besides I think a 1 point shift D from election day.

4, 8, 42, 50.

[Tekken_Guy]

This is insane. There is no excuse for a Democrat losing a race in CA-25.

There is. Garcia is just a really strong candidate. That’s like saying TJ Cox has no excuse losing either.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This is insane. There is no excuse for a Democrat losing a race in CA-25.

There is. Garcia is just a really strong candidate. That’s like saying TJ Cox has no excuse losing either.

Lol, he really isn’t though

[Matty]

A vote dump from kern county goes 56/43 for cox.

pretty sure he only needed 55%.

stay tuned?

[Coastal Elitist]

A vote dump from kern county goes 56/43 for cox.

pretty sure he only needed 55%.

stay tuned?

No

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1328905916792508418

[lfromnj]

Yeah Marty is a post election troll, always double check what he says. I remember in 2018 he trolled that Dems won GA 7th through a recount.

[Xing]

Honestly, I’d rather Brindisi win than Smith. Smith is a terrible candidate, and I could definitely see her losing in 2022. Plus, Republicans could do worse than Garcia (e.g. Tenney.) While Brindisi would have a hard time winning whatever seat he ends up in next cycle, he’d at least give the Democrats a bit of hope of holding an Upstate NY seat. I also might have some disagreements with Brindisi, but he seems like a good person who is genuine in his positions.

[lfromnj]

Honestly, I’d rather Brindisi win than Smith. Smith is a terrible candidate, and I could definitely see her losing in 2022. Plus, Republicans could do worse than Garcia (e.g. Tenney.) While Brindisi would have a hard time winning whatever seat he ends up in next cycle, he’d at least give the Democrats a bit of hope of holding an Upstate NY seat. I also might have some disagreements with Brindisi, but he seems like a good person who is genuine in his positions.

Dems have a better chance of holding the seat in a rematch in 2022 with Brindisi losing IMO. If Brindisi loses, Tenney is still in politics and will probably primary Katko. No way she can win a seat with Syracuse though even in an R Tsunami. I think Brindisi still loses in a head on head match with Katko in 2022 though. Although having the seat for this cycle is much more useful for D's.

[SevenEleven]

So, looks like NJ-07 is sadly over

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/malinowski-defeats-kean-in-close-race/

I will say, Kean put up a good fight and did very well. He way outperformed Trump, and got much closer than most people were expecting him to. I guess it was just a tough year for him to run with Trump's unpopularity in the district. Still ridiculous that it took two weeks to get a final call from this race.

Huh. I'd trade Christy Smith for Malinowski lol. Looks like we both end up disappointed.

Why? Christy Smith is a chronic underperformer. I'd rather cede CA-25 to the useless empty suit who will fall victim to redistricting than allow Kean to start rising the ranks.

Malinowski may very well be DOA in 2022 so I'd rather he go than Smith. I'd rather Brindisi go than either (Brindisi v Katko in 2022 is the best we can hope for but  I'm not super optimistic.)

Redistricting is promising for CA-25 regardless, but I'd be curious to see what parts of LA County Smith is doing best in (North SFV, Antelope Valley, or Santa Clarita) before making a final judgement.

Also, it's just embarrassing to have part of LA County be represented by a Republican.

I mean...I'd say Santa Clarita and SFV are likely her strongest showings. But outside of a brief stint of Katie Hill, there's always been LA county Republicans. In fact, there's a much larger and more Dem-leaning supervisor district that has a Republican and not too long ago Don Knabe was a thing.

Gosh I'd forgot about Don Knabe. End of an era. But yeah, I know.

Fwiw, Palmdale/Lancaster have traditionally voted left of Santa Clarita, but they're trending in opposite directions so I'd be curious to see how things end up.

I think you'll see the educated suburbanites vs exurban minorities trends reveal themselves here. But yeah, I still think Smith wins tbh and as I said before, if she doesn't, literally any other candidate will win in 2022.

Whats your data reason for Smith winning?

Just optimism?


Pretty sure you said the GOP would lose all of CA 48/CA 39/CA21/CA25 on election night or the day after IIRC because late mail in ballots would trend D despite prior data showing in the special election there wasn't any specific trend besides I think a 1 point shift D from election day.

4, 8, 42, 50.

Yeah I did think that. I still think we win Ca 21 and 25. Feel free to laugh at me if that doesn't happen. I don't pride myself on my "this will happen" analysis. I'm much more of a "why this happened" and I find more value in that. I'm sure you know that about me by now.

My data reason for Smith winning is the outstanding ballots and the close margin. The margin narrowed significantly before going back and forth a bit but the fundamentals should carry even Smith over the edge by 200 votes. If Smith doesn't win, I know why, but I also said that isn't the worst thing to happen a few months ago.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I hope he slips on a banana peel

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

If Garcia wins (yay!), I'll probably stay working over on the congressional side of things until school opens back up, if there's still campaign work that's needed before late 2021 I'd probably be just doing research on his new district, figuring out charities, etc. That all depends on me staying in state though. The lack of republicans in the Cali and especially LA leads to a lot of young people being able to get wholly unqualified positions, myself included

[SevenEleven]

If Garcia wins (yay!), I'll probably stay working over on the congressional side of things until school opens back up, if there's still campaign work that's needed before late 2021 I'd probably be just doing research on his new district, figuring out charities, etc. That all depends on me staying in state though. The lack of republicans in the Cali and especially LA leads to a lot of young people being able to get wholly unqualified positions, myself included

Trust me, it's always been like that for everybody.

[Blair]

I know specials are impossible to use to measure future results but was Smith doing so awfully earlier in the summer a sign of the coming trouble in these california seats?

[Tekken_Guy]

I know specials are impossible to use to measure future results but was Garcia doing so awfully earlier in the summer a sign of the coming trouble in these california seats?

How did Garcia do awful?

[Blair]

I know specials are impossible to use to measure future results but was Garcia doing so awfully earlier in the summer a sign of the coming trouble in these california seats?

How did Garcia do awful?

Sorry I meant Smith

[Matty]

I know specials are impossible to use to measure future results but was Garcia doing so awfully earlier in the summer a sign of the coming trouble in these california seats?

How did Garcia do awful?

Sorry I meant Smith

I was thinking of this earlier.

Was Garcia’s special election win an early sign that CA seats were in play?

[Frenchrepublican]

So, looks like NJ-07 is sadly over

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/malinowski-defeats-kean-in-close-race/

I will say, Kean put up a good fight and did very well. He way outperformed Trump, and got much closer than most people were expecting him to. I guess it was just a tough year for him to run with Trump's unpopularity in the district. Still ridiculous that it took two weeks to get a final call from this race.

Huh. I'd trade Christy Smith for Malinowski lol. Looks like we both end up disappointed.

Why? Christy Smith is a chronic underperformer. I'd rather cede CA-25 to the useless empty suit who will fall victim to redistricting than allow Kean to start rising the ranks.

Malinowski may very well be DOA in 2022 so I'd rather he go than Smith. I'd rather Brindisi go than either (Brindisi v Katko in 2022 is the best we can hope for but  I'm not super optimistic.)

Redistricting is promising for CA-25 regardless, but I'd be curious to see what parts of LA County Smith is doing best in (North SFV, Antelope Valley, or Santa Clarita) before making a final judgement.

Also, it's just embarrassing to have part of LA County be represented by a Republican.

I mean...I'd say Santa Clarita and SFV are likely her strongest showings. But outside of a brief stint of Katie Hill, there's always been LA county Republicans. In fact, there's a much larger and more Dem-leaning supervisor district that has a Republican and not too long ago Don Knabe was a thing.

Gosh I'd forgot about Don Knabe. End of an era. But yeah, I know.

Fwiw, Palmdale/Lancaster have traditionally voted left of Santa Clarita, but they're trending in opposite directions so I'd be curious to see how things end up.

I think you'll see the educated suburbanites vs exurban minorities trends reveal themselves here. But yeah, I still think Smith wins tbh and as I said before, if she doesn't, literally any other candidate will win in 2022.

Whats your data reason for Smith winning?

Just optimism?


Pretty sure you said the GOP would lose all of CA 48/CA 39/CA21/CA25 on election night or the day after IIRC because late mail in ballots would trend D despite prior data showing in the special election there wasn't any specific trend besides I think a 1 point shift D from election day.

4, 8, 42, 50.

Yeah I did think that. I still think we win Ca 21 and 25. Feel free to laugh at me if that doesn't happen. I don't pride myself on my "this will happen" analysis. I'm much more of a "why this happened" and I find more value in that. I'm sure you know that about me by now.

My data reason for Smith winning is the outstanding ballots and the close margin. The margin narrowed significantly before going back and forth a bit but the fundamentals should carry even Smith over the edge by 200 votes. If Smith doesn't win, I know why, but I also said that isn't the worst thing to happen a few months ago.

I also think that Smith has a good chance to win, but Cox seems in a more precarious position, no ?