CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS MEGA THREAD

[Roll Roons]

Smith is just a terrible candidate. I'm hoping Garcia is pretty entrenched by two years from now and can hold on against a decent candidate - he seems like a genuinely impressive guy.

Martha Coakley, Anthony Brown and now Christy Smith!

[2016]

Smith is just a terrible candidate. I'm hoping Garcia is pretty entrenched by two years from now and can hold on against a decent candidate - he seems like a genuinely impressive guy.

Yup, Mike Garcia seems to be a really good guy!

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1328845374128349184

[lfromnj]

Smith did seem like an A tier recruit coming in though, Assemblywoman who covered half the district coming is a great recruit. I did post the first "gaffe" she made on the zoom call regarding the military. To her credit she did apologize for it which although a mistake politically , it was correct morally.

[lfromnj]

I still think the commission would be smart to draw a sink in OC, just trying to figure out where to place it. At the same time its still possible Ds sweep OC again in the next good year and they may want to take that risk.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1328845374128349184

Tenney losing but Garcia winning, I'd take it! Just didn't want to lose both Seats!

[2016]

https://www.wktv.com/content/news/Tenneys-lead-cut-to-3-in-22nd-Congressional-District-race-against-Brindisi--573107731.html

Claudia Tenney (R) 152,069
Anthony Brindisi (D) 148,586

Margin 3,483

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1328838727443968000

Now it looks really promising for Mike Garcia!

Incredible, Republicans might win back 4 Democratic-heald Congressional Seats in California of all places (CA-21, CA-25, CA-39 and CA-48)

Well, I'm glad to know our Simi campaign manager doesn't know what the fck she was saying.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Smith is just a terrible candidate. I'm hoping Garcia is pretty entrenched by two years from now and can hold on against a decent candidate - he seems like a genuinely impressive guy.

Somehow that's the impression that developed in this race. Even though, with all due respect to Lord Drachir, Garcia the most superficial candidate I have ever seen in my life. I mean, he just isn't a very smart person. Unlike Christy.

Blairite, my friend, I am the first to say that Mike is one of the least politically smart candidates  I have ever met, he has no excuse being as conservative he is. He's a very smart person when you get to talk with him, about pretty much everything, but when it comes to being a viable candidates, god no, he's not running a smart campaign. I can't comment on how smart Christy is, she didn't come off as especially smart, though her campaign is certainly the smarter of the two.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This is insane. There is no excuse for a Democrat losing a race in CA-25.

We haven't

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

This is insane. There is no excuse for a Democrat losing a race in CA-25.

We haven't

Still wanna make that bet man?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This is insane. There is no excuse for a Democrat losing a race in CA-25.

We haven't

Still wanna make that bet man?

You mean that the race could go either way right now?  Sure, but I don't know how we'd verify it.  I'm just saying it's not over yet and you guys are potentially counting chickens before they've hatched.

[2016]

This is insane. There is no excuse for a Democrat losing a race in CA-25.

We haven't

Still wanna make that bet man?

You mean that the race could go either way right now?  Sure, but I don't know how we'd verify it.  I'm just saying it's not over yet and you guys are potentially counting chickens before they've hatched.

422 Votes is a lot in a Congressional District Race with only 4K Votes left to count at most. Smith needed that LA Vote Dump tonight to go in her favor and the Campaign knows it.

[lfromnj]

This is insane. There is no excuse for a Democrat losing a race in CA-25.

We haven't

Still wanna make that bet man?

You mean that the race could go either way right now?  Sure, but I don't know how we'd verify it.  I'm just saying it's not over yet and you guys are potentially counting chickens before they've hatched.

422 Votes is a lot in a Congressional District Race with only 4K Votes left to count at most. Smith needed that LA Vote Dump tonight to go in her favor and the Campaign knows it.

Yes I'd say its very likely Garcia ends up still leading before the recount which could still change stuff.

[n1240]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1328827724329316354

Having lived in Chenango county, it is probably one of the most Trumpiest parts of New York State imaginable.

Herkimer and Chenango voted pretty similarly in 2018, and mail still has a very heavy Dem lean of course. I stated yesterday I expect Chenango to net 1400 votes for Brindisi with around a 35-40% percentage margin, similar to Herkimer (partisanship of ballots in Chenango is more favorable for Brindisi than Herkimer though so he should realistically do a few points better).

Once Oneida and Chenango are done with absentees I expect Tenney's lead to be around 400. At this point it comes down to challenged ballots and the amount of provisional ballots in Oneida (and the rest of the district). The challenged ballots in particular, are likely pretty favorable for Brindisi and provisional ballots should have a modest Brindisi lean as well, based on what is being observed in Broome. Seems to be some uncertainty here but Brindisi is probably favored unless Chenango absentees end up being abnormally bad for him.

[Roll Roons]

So, looks like NJ-07 is sadly over

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/malinowski-defeats-kean-in-close-race/

I will say, Kean put up a good fight and did very well. He way outperformed Trump, and got much closer than most people were expecting him to. I guess it was just a tough year for him to run with Trump's unpopularity in the district. Still ridiculous that it took two weeks to get a final call from this race.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

So, looks like NJ-07 is over

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/malinowski-defeats-kean-in-close-race/

I will say, Kean put up a good fight and did very well.

Damn it, poor Kean, always a bridge too far.

[Matty]

As the days go on, it really seems like the dems didn’t do that bad in the house

They didn’t lose any seats that were unacceptable

[Mr.Phips]

As the days go on, it really seems like the dems didn’t do that bad in the house

They didn’t lose any seats that were unacceptable

FL-27 was an unacceptable loss.  Biden won that district.

[Roll Roons]

So, looks like NJ-07 is over

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/malinowski-defeats-kean-in-close-race/

I will say, Kean put up a good fight and did very well.

Damn it, poor Kean, always a bridge too far.

Yeah, it's disappointing. This is my home district and I was really rooting for him. But Mike's looking pretty good!

[AncestralDemocrat.]

As the days go on, it really seems like the dems didn’t do that bad in the house

They didn’t lose any seats that were unacceptable

A double digit loss is unacceptable when you take into account that the consensus was that House Republicans would sink further into the minority..

[Progressive Pessimist]

As the days go on, it really seems like the dems didn’t do that bad in the house

They didn’t lose any seats that were unacceptable

As I've said before, the real issue was not getting more than three pickups so far-with two of those being entirely due to redistricting. You're right that many of the districts that fell (maybe with the exception the two in Florida) were always likely to only last for one term, but with those becoming GOP pickups there really should have been some Democratic ones to make up for that. AZ-6, CA-25 (which will probably happen), NE-2, NJ-2, and TX-23 were probably the most disappointing failures.

The only way to polish this turd of an election is if Brindisi, Hart, and Smith end up pulling away with wins. That would at least offset the Republican gains slightly. It's the best we can hope for.

[Mr.Phips]

As the days go on, it really seems like the dems didn’t do that bad in the house

They didn’t lose any seats that were unacceptable

As I've said before, the real issue was not getting more than three pickups so far-with two of those being entirely due to redistricting. You're right that many of the districts that fell (maybe with the exception the two in Florida) were always likely to only last for one term, but with those becoming GOP pickups there really should have been some Democratic ones to make up for that. AZ-6, CA-25 (which will probably happen), NE-2, NJ-2, and TX-23 were probably the most disappointing failures.

The only way to polish this turd of an election is if Brindisi, Hart, and Smith end up pulling away with wins. That would at least offset the Republican gains slightly. It's the best we can hope for.

TX-23 and AZ-06 went for Trump and NJ-02 probably did too.  However Dems have no excuse for losing Biden districts like TX-24, CA-25, and NE-02.  Those should have been Dem pickups.  Once again, Democrats should not have been turning out “Republicans for Biden” unless they were sure they would vote Dem down ballot.

[SevenEleven]

I still think the commission would be smart to draw a sink in OC, just trying to figure out where to place it. At the same time its still possible Ds sweep OC again in the next good year and they may want to take that risk.

All you need to do is pair Long Beach with Huntington, which, while undesirable imo from a CoI standpoint, is still superior to Long Beach-Garden Grove, and helps Dems a lot more as well.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

So, looks like NJ-07 is sadly over

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/malinowski-defeats-kean-in-close-race/

I will say, Kean put up a good fight and did very well. He way outperformed Trump, and got much closer than most people were expecting him to. I guess it was just a tough year for him to run with Trump's unpopularity in the district. Still ridiculous that it took two weeks to get a final call from this race.

Huh. I'd trade Christy Smith for Malinowski lol. Looks like we both end up disappointed.