CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS MEGA THREAD

[wbrocks67]

SC-1 ended up being very close.
Cunningham down by less than 1%, 50.4-49.6

I hope he runs again.

[2016]

SC-1 ended up being very close.
Cunningham down by less than 1%, 50.4-49.6

I hope he runs again.

There is no chance he would win in a Biden Midterm. Unlike Katie Arrington, whom he defeated in 2018 because she was such a bad Candidate, Mace is a good one.

[Tekken_Guy]

SC-1 ended up being very close.
Cunningham down by less than 1%, 50.4-49.6

I hope he runs again.

There is no chance he would win in a Biden Midterm. Unlike Katie Arrington, whom he defeated in 2018 because she was such a bad Candidate, Mace is a good one.

And tell me who those mythical Cunningham '20/Mace '22 voters are?

[lfromnj]

SC-1 ended up being very close.
Cunningham down by less than 1%, 50.4-49.6

I hope he runs again.

There is no chance he would win in a Biden Midterm. Unlike Katie Arrington, whom he defeated in 2018 because she was such a bad Candidate, Mace is a good one.

And tell me who those mythical Cunningham '20/Mace '22 voters are?

Jasper county added and all the white libs in Charleston removed,

[VAR]

SC-1 ended up being very close.
Cunningham down by less than 1%, 50.4-49.6

I hope he runs again.

There is no chance he would win in a Biden Midterm. Unlike Katie Arrington, whom he defeated in 2018 because she was such a bad Candidate, Mace is a good one.

And tell me who those mythical Cunningham '20/Mace '22 voters are?

They'd be similar to Taylor '18/Luria '20 voters and Handel '18/McBath '20 voters.

Both Handel and Taylor were "strong" incumbents who lost due to the national environment. So is Cunningham.

[Tekken_Guy]

SC-1 ended up being very close.
Cunningham down by less than 1%, 50.4-49.6

I hope he runs again.

There is no chance he would win in a Biden Midterm. Unlike Katie Arrington, whom he defeated in 2018 because she was such a bad Candidate, Mace is a good one.

And tell me who those mythical Cunningham '20/Mace '22 voters are?

Jasper county added and all the white libs in Charleston removed,

I'm not sure if that's legal. Putting too many white liberals into SC-6 could violate the VRA. I think Cunningham will lose again, but narrowly, and runs for Mayor in 2023.

[Frenchrepublican]

SC-1 ended up being very close.
Cunningham down by less than 1%, 50.4-49.6

I hope he runs again.

There is no chance he would win in a Biden Midterm. Unlike Katie Arrington, whom he defeated in 2018 because she was such a bad Candidate, Mace is a good one.

And tell me who those mythical Cunningham '20/Mace '22 voters are?

Is it a serious question ?

Well, Trump won SC-1 by 6 so you have already a good numbers of Trump / Cunningham voters ; it's not absurd to imagine that these voters going to Mace, then you have the voters who are going to vote for her simply because she will be the incumbent, then you have probably some not very ideological voters who are going to vote for any sane republican because they don't like the Biden administration and want a check on it.

And we are not even taking into account the fact that turnout dropp-off will probably be higher among Biden voters than among Trump ones.

[Frenchrepublican]

SC-1 ended up being very close.
Cunningham down by less than 1%, 50.4-49.6

I hope he runs again.

There is no chance he would win in a Biden Midterm. Unlike Katie Arrington, whom he defeated in 2018 because she was such a bad Candidate, Mace is a good one.

And tell me who those mythical Cunningham '20/Mace '22 voters are?

Jasper county added and all the white libs in Charleston removed,

I'm not sure if that's legal. Putting too many white liberals into SC-6 could violate the VRA. I think Cunningham will lose again, but narrowly, and runs for Mayor in 2023.

SC-6 would still be majority black.

[Tekken_Guy]

SC-1 ended up being very close.
Cunningham down by less than 1%, 50.4-49.6

I hope he runs again.

There is no chance he would win in a Biden Midterm. Unlike Katie Arrington, whom he defeated in 2018 because she was such a bad Candidate, Mace is a good one.

And tell me who those mythical Cunningham '20/Mace '22 voters are?

Is it a serious question ?

Well, Trump won SC-1 by 6 so you have already a good numbers of Trump / Cunningham voters ; it's not absurd to imagine that these voters going to Mace, then you have the voters who are going to vote for her simply because she will be the incumbent, then you have probably some not very ideological voters who are going to vote for any sane republican because they don't like the Biden administration and want a check on it.

"because she's the incumbent"...does a great job explaining Horn/Bice, Finkenauer/Hinson, Rouda/Steel, or Rose/Malliotakis voters.

[Tekken_Guy]

SC-1 ended up being very close.
Cunningham down by less than 1%, 50.4-49.6

I hope he runs again.

There is no chance he would win in a Biden Midterm. Unlike Katie Arrington, whom he defeated in 2018 because she was such a bad Candidate, Mace is a good one.

And tell me who those mythical Cunningham '20/Mace '22 voters are?

Jasper county added and all the white libs in Charleston removed,

I'm not sure if that's legal. Putting too many white liberals into SC-6 could violate the VRA. I think Cunningham will lose again, but narrowly, and runs for Mayor in 2023.

SC-6 would still be majority black.

True. What I'm trying to say is that it'll be very hard to make SC-1 considerably more Republican than it is now.

[Frenchrepublican]

SC-1 ended up being very close.
Cunningham down by less than 1%, 50.4-49.6

I hope he runs again.

There is no chance he would win in a Biden Midterm. Unlike Katie Arrington, whom he defeated in 2018 because she was such a bad Candidate, Mace is a good one.

And tell me who those mythical Cunningham '20/Mace '22 voters are?

Is it a serious question ?

Well, Trump won SC-1 by 6 so you have already a good numbers of Trump / Cunningham voters ; it's not absurd to imagine that these voters going to Mace, then you have the voters who are going to vote for her simply because she will be the incumbent, then you have probably some not very ideological voters who are going to vote for any sane republican because they don't like the Biden administration and want a check on it.

"because she's the incumbent"...does a great job explaining Horn/Bice, Finkenauer/Hinson, Rouda/Steel, or Rose/Malliotakis voters.

Horn, Finkenauer and Rose lost because of higher turnout, not because they lost many of their own 2018 voters.

To put it simply many lower propensity republican voters stayed at home in 2018, in 2020 they went to polls as they were attracted by the presidential race, but these voters are not D to R voters they are 2018 non voters / 2020 voters.

(Concerning Rouda, he won in 2018 only because he was facing a Putin apologist).

[Tekken_Guy]

SC-1 ended up being very close.
Cunningham down by less than 1%, 50.4-49.6

I hope he runs again.

There is no chance he would win in a Biden Midterm. Unlike Katie Arrington, whom he defeated in 2018 because she was such a bad Candidate, Mace is a good one.

And tell me who those mythical Cunningham '20/Mace '22 voters are?

Is it a serious question ?

Well, Trump won SC-1 by 6 so you have already a good numbers of Trump / Cunningham voters ; it's not absurd to imagine that these voters going to Mace, then you have the voters who are going to vote for her simply because she will be the incumbent, then you have probably some not very ideological voters who are going to vote for any sane republican because they don't like the Biden administration and want a check on it.

"because she's the incumbent"...does a great job explaining Horn/Bice, Finkenauer/Hinson, Rouda/Steel, or Rose/Malliotakis voters.

Horn, Finkenauer and Rose lost because of higher turnout, not because they lost many of their own 2018 voters.

To put it simply many lower propensity republican voters stayed at home in 2018, in 2020 they went to polls as they were attracted by the presidential race, but these voters are not D to R voters they are 2018 non voters / 2020 voters.

(Concerning Rouda, he won in 2018 only because he was facing a Putin apologist).

Explain why Mucarsel-Powell, Shalala, Cisneros, and possibly Malinowski lost as well? Clinton carried all of their districts.

[Frenchrepublican]

SC-1 ended up being very close.
Cunningham down by less than 1%, 50.4-49.6

I hope he runs again.

There is no chance he would win in a Biden Midterm. Unlike Katie Arrington, whom he defeated in 2018 because she was such a bad Candidate, Mace is a good one.

And tell me who those mythical Cunningham '20/Mace '22 voters are?

Jasper county added and all the white libs in Charleston removed,

I'm not sure if that's legal. Putting too many white liberals into SC-6 could violate the VRA. I think Cunningham will lose again, but narrowly, and runs for Mayor in 2023.

SC-6 would still be majority black.

True. What I'm trying to say is that it'll be very hard to make SC-1 considerably more Republican than it is now.

I agree but it's not even really needed, I mean Biden lost SC-1 by 6 while winning the PV by 4.5, a district which leans 10 points to the right of the country is not very vulnerable outside of a big D wave as long that Mace doesn't turn into the next Claudia Tenney.

[Roll Roons]

SC-1 ended up being very close.
Cunningham down by less than 1%, 50.4-49.6

I hope he runs again.

There is no chance he would win in a Biden Midterm. Unlike Katie Arrington, whom he defeated in 2018 because she was such a bad Candidate, Mace is a good one.

And tell me who those mythical Cunningham '20/Mace '22 voters are?

Is it a serious question ?

Well, Trump won SC-1 by 6 so you have already a good numbers of Trump / Cunningham voters ; it's not absurd to imagine that these voters going to Mace, then you have the voters who are going to vote for her simply because she will be the incumbent, then you have probably some not very ideological voters who are going to vote for any sane republican because they don't like the Biden administration and want a check on it.

"because she's the incumbent"...does a great job explaining Horn/Bice, Finkenauer/Hinson, Rouda/Steel, or Rose/Malliotakis voters.

Horn, Finkenauer and Rose lost because of higher turnout, not because they lost many of their own 2018 voters.

To put it simply many lower propensity republican voters stayed at home in 2018, in 2020 they went to polls as they were attracted by the presidential race, but these voters are not D to R voters they are 2018 non voters / 2020 voters.

(Concerning Rouda, he won in 2018 only because he was facing a Putin apologist).

Explain why Mucarsel-Powell, Shalala, Cisneros, and possibly Malinowski lost as well? Clinton carried all of their districts.

Gimenez, Salazar, Kim and Kean were all very strong challengers, and Trump won FL-26 this time. Shahala was clearly out of step with the district. I know a couple people from the area, and not only did she not speak Spanish in a heavily Cuban district (while facing a Cuban opponent), but her tenure as UM president made her unpopular.

[Frenchrepublican]

SC-1 ended up being very close.
Cunningham down by less than 1%, 50.4-49.6

I hope he runs again.

There is no chance he would win in a Biden Midterm. Unlike Katie Arrington, whom he defeated in 2018 because she was such a bad Candidate, Mace is a good one.

And tell me who those mythical Cunningham '20/Mace '22 voters are?

Is it a serious question ?

Well, Trump won SC-1 by 6 so you have already a good numbers of Trump / Cunningham voters ; it's not absurd to imagine that these voters going to Mace, then you have the voters who are going to vote for her simply because she will be the incumbent, then you have probably some not very ideological voters who are going to vote for any sane republican because they don't like the Biden administration and want a check on it.

"because she's the incumbent"...does a great job explaining Horn/Bice, Finkenauer/Hinson, Rouda/Steel, or Rose/Malliotakis voters.

Horn, Finkenauer and Rose lost because of higher turnout, not because they lost many of their own 2018 voters.

To put it simply many lower propensity republican voters stayed at home in 2018, in 2020 they went to polls as they were attracted by the presidential race, but these voters are not D to R voters they are 2018 non voters / 2020 voters.

(Concerning Rouda, he won in 2018 only because he was facing a Putin apologist).

Explain why Mucarsel-Powell, Shalala, Cisneros, and possibly Malinowski lost as well? Clinton carried all of their districts.

Mucarsel Powell : Biden lost the district by 5 points + relatively weak incumbent

Shalala : Biden barely won the district + very weak incumbent who actually don't even speak Spanish + strong challenger

Cisneros : Biden won the district by only 2 as he collapsed with Asian Americans

Malinowski : very strong opponent

Anyway I don't really see what is your point, with the exception of NJ-7 all the districts you listed are to the right of the country, thus it's not absurd to see them flipping back when the climate is ''only'' at D+3.
SC-1 is roughly 10 points to the right of the country, so it's not going to be especially close in a Biden midterm in which democrats are probably going to lose the national vote. (Also I would love to know who these numerous Trump / 2022 congressional dem voters are going to be).

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

(Concerning Rouda, he won in 2018 only because he was facing a Putin apologist).

Nah.

[Skill and Chance]

(Concerning Rouda, he won in 2018 only because he was facing a Putin apologist).

Nah.

Rouda was a terrible candidate, all things considered.  The scandal about terminating an employee when they had cancer in order to save on premiums for the company health plan is about the most hypocritical thing a Dem candidate could be accused of.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/il_american/status/1320871526758043649

Interesting so it seems that TX 15th did have an actual R candidate this year, nothing great but just a C tier one atleast compared to the other 2 districts.

[wbrocks67]

Malinowksi got another boost from overseas ballots

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1328107695606550528

[KaiserDave]

Globalism strikes back!

[WD]

Globalism strikes back!

The Deep State always wins.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Globalism strikes back!

The Deep State always wins.

Soros and I were particularly proud of this little trick!

[Pericles]

It seems insane how Debbie Mucarsel-Powell actually outran Biden, I thought strong candidate Gimenez was supposed to run way ahead of Trump.

[GALeftist]

It seems insane how Debbie Mucarsel-Powell actually outran Biden, I thought strong candidate Gimenez was supposed to run way ahead of Trump.

Makes you wonder what would have happened had Gimenez stayed out.

[Frenchrepublican]

(Concerning Rouda, he won in 2018 only because he was facing a Putin apologist).

Nah.

Newsom lost the district 48/52