CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS MEGA THREAD

[Pericles]

It's embarrassing the NRCC spent in Arkansas of all places while triaging ME-02.

AR-02 was polling as a close race and looked like the kind of seat with suburban trends that could flip in a big blue wave. However the NRCC should have had accurate internal district polls, it seems the district polling was off too and we don't know why.

[Pericles]

How will that tipping point-seat ultimately vote relative to the national popular vote for the House?

[Pericles]

It seems insane how Debbie Mucarsel-Powell actually outran Biden, I thought strong candidate Gimenez was supposed to run way ahead of Trump.

[Pericles]

AZ-01 seems like a pretty vulnerable district in 2022 if it remains similar, the Dem wins there have been underwhelming.

[Pericles]

McSally clearly blew a very winnable race, rather than just turning a narrow loss into a bigger one. Hopefully this error comes back to haunt the Republican Party.

[Pericles]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1331690151349784580

[Pericles]

Did NY-22 have a much reduced Trump margin this year, or is it like the 16 point margin he won it by last time?

[Pericles]

So much for the hot takes that pelosi “lost” this election cycle

I mean, she did. Democrats should have gained ~10 seats. Losing any is definitely an underperformance.

Yeah but that's more Biden's fault for not winning by 8 points than hers-their fate was decided by the top of the ticket.

[Pericles]

So much for the hot takes that pelosi “lost” this election cycle

I mean, she did. Democrats should have gained ~10 seats. Losing any is definitely an underperformance.

Yeah but that's more Biden's fault for not winning by 8 points than hers-their fate was decided by the top of the ticket.

As the incumbent party in the House, Dems should have run ahead of Biden.  Pelosi should have taken Mnuchin’s 1.8 trillion stimulus offer and gotten Trump to force McConnell to pass it through the Senate.

Most Republicans are stronger candidates than Trump so it's natural for them to outrun him, the check stuff is a myth.

[Pericles]

Wouldn't Hart being the incumbent reduce the chances of a gerrymander? IA-02 would be a harder race for Republicans in 2022, it's harder to beat an incumbent than re-elect your own incumbent. So they would be less inclined to go 4-0 and risk another 2-2 in the process.

[Pericles]

It's pretty weird how most of the close Senate races were Democratic wins, even in a 50-50 Senate where they lost most of the races that were seen as competitive before the election. Democrats won 4 Senate seats by under 5%*, while North Carolina was the only Republican victory that was under 5%.** Lots of seats that were seen as competitive beforehand like Montana, Iowa, Maine, and even seats that were seen as Lean R like South Carolina, Kansas and Texas all ended up being easy Republican wins. This is just another example of the effects of the big polling error, and how 2020 was such a weird election.

*This is using the runoff margin for Georgia regular, but the point is even stronger if you use the 0.28% that Perdue came from an outright majority in the general.
**Maybe with IRV Susan Collins' real margin of victory was under 5%, but this is unlikely.