CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS MEGA THREAD

[BudgieForce]

It's like 2018 but in reverse. Instead of democrats winning most of the close races, they're losing the close races.

I'm glad democrats are going to keep the house, but it still hurts seeing such good politicians lose.

[Torie]

CA-25 is still unknown, but it seems like other than IL-14, in the late counting for everything that was close, the Dems lost them all, plus maybe (I have ignored this race and am clueless) the Kean thing as a lagniappe for the Pubs from outer space.

[BudgieForce]

Also, it's a nice to see all the panic from democrats about needing some huge popular vote margin to win both the electoral college and congress is turning out to be false. The senate is another story, but it looks like congress is going to end up being pretty representative of the national popular vote.

[BudgieForce]

CA-25 is still unknown, but it seems like other than IL-14, in the late counting for everything that was close, the Dems lost them all, plus maybe (I have ignored this race and am clueless) the Kean thing as a lagniappe for the Pubs from outer space.

So 222 D, 213 R?

[LimoLiberal]

Malinowski is doing very poorly districtwide with late vote counts. Essex is only a small portion of the district but even in the small batch of 396 votes counted today, Kean won them by 13%, nearly 50% swing from previous. In Union County Kean won 2653 votes by 26%, about a 40% swing. Seems like it actually might be a bit dire for Malinowski considering the amount of outstanding ballots remaining. Union might have around 20k left, same for Morris. Depends a lot on how many provisional ballots there are in Hunterdon and Somerset I'd imagine, these could let Kean cut into the margin a good chunk for sure.

It feels good to be right, but it doesn't feel good that the D House majority will be even smaller.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Malinowski is doing very poorly districtwide with late vote counts. Essex is only a small portion of the district but even in the small batch of 396 votes counted today, Kean won them by 13%, nearly 50% swing from previous. In Union County Kean won 2653 votes by 26%, about a 40% swing. Seems like it actually might be a bit dire for Malinowski considering the amount of outstanding ballots remaining. Union might have around 20k left, same for Morris. Depends a lot on how many provisional ballots there are in Hunterdon and Somerset I'd imagine, these could let Kean cut into the margin a good chunk for sure.

It feels good to be right, but it doesn't feel good that the D House majority will be even smaller.

Donald Trump isn't president-elect.

[2016]

SLC is now likely finished counting, McAdams nets 83 votes on this batch, seems like UT-04 is over.

I think Owens won this because of COVID-19. The Pandemic entirely changed Voter Behaviours when to vote. In the late arriving Ballots where D's usually have an even more decided edge especially in a Presidential Year R's could hold their own or slightly increase their leads see CA.

[n1240]

If there are about 40,000 ballots left in NJ-7, Kean would need to win them by something like 65%(napkin math). That seems doable looking at the recent drops, but I don't think it's time to be writing Malinowski's political obituary just yet.

I wonder if there is more than 40k ballots left though. NJ Globe just offers it as an estimate - they seem to have an idea of how many are in Morris and Hunterdon respectively, but there is probably a good number of provisionals to consider in Somerset county as well.

I think Union County probably has around 20k left based on the following - it's reasonable to expect at least 10% more prez votes than 2016, which would equal 245927 prez votes this year. 200561 prez votes are currently counted, would indicate 45366 more to count, currently NJ-07 is 48% of the prez vote, so assuming this rate remains the same it would indicate 22k more votes from the NJ-07 portion of Union County. It could still be fewer votes, but if anything I think it's more likely to exceed this number because turnout is up nationwide and the amount of registered voters has increased by a magnitude of more than 10% from 2016. Overall wouldn't be surprised if outstanding ballots in the district is closer to 60k. Somerset County is currently at 115% of the 2016 total within the district, and Hunterdon and Warren are both at 121% (and both still have some ballots to count).

[Torie]

CA-25 is still unknown, but it seems like other than IL-14, in the late counting for everything that was close, the Dems lost them all, plus maybe (I have ignored this race and am clueless) the Kean thing as a lagniappe for the Pubs from outer space.

So 222 D, 213 R?

221-223 D absent more surprises.

[LimoLiberal]

Malinowski is doing very poorly districtwide with late vote counts. Essex is only a small portion of the district but even in the small batch of 396 votes counted today, Kean won them by 13%, nearly 50% swing from previous. In Union County Kean won 2653 votes by 26%, about a 40% swing. Seems like it actually might be a bit dire for Malinowski considering the amount of outstanding ballots remaining. Union might have around 20k left, same for Morris. Depends a lot on how many provisional ballots there are in Hunterdon and Somerset I'd imagine, these could let Kean cut into the margin a good chunk for sure.

It feels good to be right, but it doesn't feel good that the D House majority will be even smaller.

Donald Trump isn't president-elect.

Did I say I was right about everything?

[Tekken_Guy]

CA-25 is still unknown, but it seems like other than IL-14, in the late counting for everything that was close, the Dems lost them all, plus maybe (I have ignored this race and am clueless) the Kean thing as a lagniappe for the Pubs from outer space.

So 222 D, 213 R?

221-223 D absent more surprises.

Do you have he link to that?

[Mr.Phips]

If there are about 40,000 ballots left in NJ-7, Kean would need to win them by something like 65%(napkin math). That seems doable looking at the recent drops, but I don't think it's time to be writing Malinowski's political obituary just yet.

I wonder if there is more than 40k ballots left though. NJ Globe just offers it as an estimate - they seem to have an idea of how many are in Morris and Hunterdon respectively, but there is probably a good number of provisionals to consider in Somerset county as well.

I think Union County probably has around 20k left based on the following - it's reasonable to expect at least 10% more prez votes than 2016, which would equal 245927 prez votes this year. 200561 prez votes are currently counted, would indicate 45366 more to count, currently NJ-07 is 48% of the prez vote, so assuming this rate remains the same it would indicate 22k more votes from the NJ-07 portion of Union County. It could still be fewer votes, but if anything I think it's more likely to exceed this number because turnout is up nationwide and the amount of registered voters has increased by a magnitude of more than 10% from 2016. Overall wouldn't be surprised if outstanding ballots in the district is closer to 60k. Somerset County is currently at 115% of the 2016 total within the district, and Hunterdon and Warren are both at 121% (and both still have some ballots to count).

It would make redistricting way easier if Kean wins.  That way Kean picks up Republicans from Gottheimer and Sherrill and gives his Democrats to Sherrill.  That way they all get basically safe seats.

[Matty]

How did dems do in that Kansas district that was freakishly close in special election in mid 2017?

[Roll Roons]

How did dems do in that Kansas district that was freakishly close in special election in mid 2017?

Estes (R) won by 28.

[Tekken_Guy]

If there are about 40,000 ballots left in NJ-7, Kean would need to win them by something like 65%(napkin math). That seems doable looking at the recent drops, but I don't think it's time to be writing Malinowski's political obituary just yet.

I wonder if there is more than 40k ballots left though. NJ Globe just offers it as an estimate - they seem to have an idea of how many are in Morris and Hunterdon respectively, but there is probably a good number of provisionals to consider in Somerset county as well.

I think Union County probably has around 20k left based on the following - it's reasonable to expect at least 10% more prez votes than 2016, which would equal 245927 prez votes this year. 200561 prez votes are currently counted, would indicate 45366 more to count, currently NJ-07 is 48% of the prez vote, so assuming this rate remains the same it would indicate 22k more votes from the NJ-07 portion of Union County. It could still be fewer votes, but if anything I think it's more likely to exceed this number because turnout is up nationwide and the amount of registered voters has increased by a magnitude of more than 10% from 2016. Overall wouldn't be surprised if outstanding ballots in the district is closer to 60k. Somerset County is currently at 115% of the 2016 total within the district, and Hunterdon and Warren are both at 121% (and both still have some ballots to count).

It would make redistricting way easier if Kean wins.  That way Kean picks up Republicans from Gottheimer and Sherrill and gives his Democrats to Sherrill.  That way they all get basically safe seats.

One tiny problem though...his hometown of Westfield is in the heavily democratic part of the district. I'm not sure if he wants to keep it and risk a dummymander, or carpetbag all the way to northwest Jersey.

[BudgieForce]

If there are about 40,000 ballots left in NJ-7, Kean would need to win them by something like 65%(napkin math). That seems doable looking at the recent drops, but I don't think it's time to be writing Malinowski's political obituary just yet.

I wonder if there is more than 40k ballots left though. NJ Globe just offers it as an estimate - they seem to have an idea of how many are in Morris and Hunterdon respectively, but there is probably a good number of provisionals to consider in Somerset county as well.

I think Union County probably has around 20k left based on the following - it's reasonable to expect at least 10% more prez votes than 2016, which would equal 245927 prez votes this year. 200561 prez votes are currently counted, would indicate 45366 more to count, currently NJ-07 is 48% of the prez vote, so assuming this rate remains the same it would indicate 22k more votes from the NJ-07 portion of Union County. It could still be fewer votes, but if anything I think it's more likely to exceed this number because turnout is up nationwide and the amount of registered voters has increased by a magnitude of more than 10% from 2016. Overall wouldn't be surprised if outstanding ballots in the district is closer to 60k. Somerset County is currently at 115% of the 2016 total within the district, and Hunterdon and Warren are both at 121% (and both still have some ballots to count).

It would make redistricting way easier if Kean wins.  That way Kean picks up Republicans from Gottheimer and Sherrill and gives his Democrats to Sherrill.  That way they all get basically safe seats.

One tiny problem though...his hometown of Westfield is in the heavily democratic part of the district. I'm not sure if he wants to keep it or carpetbag all the way to northwest Jersey.

Wouldn't be the first NJ politician to carpet bag.

[Tekken_Guy]

If there are about 40,000 ballots left in NJ-7, Kean would need to win them by something like 65%(napkin math). That seems doable looking at the recent drops, but I don't think it's time to be writing Malinowski's political obituary just yet.

I wonder if there is more than 40k ballots left though. NJ Globe just offers it as an estimate - they seem to have an idea of how many are in Morris and Hunterdon respectively, but there is probably a good number of provisionals to consider in Somerset county as well.

I think Union County probably has around 20k left based on the following - it's reasonable to expect at least 10% more prez votes than 2016, which would equal 245927 prez votes this year. 200561 prez votes are currently counted, would indicate 45366 more to count, currently NJ-07 is 48% of the prez vote, so assuming this rate remains the same it would indicate 22k more votes from the NJ-07 portion of Union County. It could still be fewer votes, but if anything I think it's more likely to exceed this number because turnout is up nationwide and the amount of registered voters has increased by a magnitude of more than 10% from 2016. Overall wouldn't be surprised if outstanding ballots in the district is closer to 60k. Somerset County is currently at 115% of the 2016 total within the district, and Hunterdon and Warren are both at 121% (and both still have some ballots to count).

It would make redistricting way easier if Kean wins.  That way Kean picks up Republicans from Gottheimer and Sherrill and gives his Democrats to Sherrill.  That way they all get basically safe seats.

One tiny problem though...his hometown of Westfield is in the heavily democratic part of the district. I'm not sure if he wants to keep it or carpetbag all the way to northwest Jersey.

Wouldn't be the first NJ politician to carpet bag.

True. I just think giving up Westfield would make a safer district for Kean. Maybe he decides to take the risk and challenge Sherrill instead.

[wbrocks67]

If there are about 40,000 ballots left in NJ-7, Kean would need to win them by something like 65%(napkin math). That seems doable looking at the recent drops, but I don't think it's time to be writing Malinowski's political obituary just yet.

I wonder if there is more than 40k ballots left though. NJ Globe just offers it as an estimate - they seem to have an idea of how many are in Morris and Hunterdon respectively, but there is probably a good number of provisionals to consider in Somerset county as well.

I think Union County probably has around 20k left based on the following - it's reasonable to expect at least 10% more prez votes than 2016, which would equal 245927 prez votes this year. 200561 prez votes are currently counted, would indicate 45366 more to count, currently NJ-07 is 48% of the prez vote, so assuming this rate remains the same it would indicate 22k more votes from the NJ-07 portion of Union County. It could still be fewer votes, but if anything I think it's more likely to exceed this number because turnout is up nationwide and the amount of registered voters has increased by a magnitude of more than 10% from 2016. Overall wouldn't be surprised if outstanding ballots in the district is closer to 60k. Somerset County is currently at 115% of the 2016 total within the district, and Hunterdon and Warren are both at 121% (and both still have some ballots to count).

I don't think there are 40k left. NJ estimated about 4 million total votes, they've basically hit that. I'm sure theres some extra provisionals out and a few more to count, but not nearly enough to change the outcome of the race.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The AP/NYT have finally called NCSEN for Tillis. The presidential race remains uncalled.

[Roll Roons]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f03cb506-4850-456c-b12d-eaa371cb21c2

I was able to make a clearly R-leaning district for Kean that includes Westfield. Sherrill's district becomes about a point more R, Gottheimer's moves slightly to the left, and NJ-03 gains more of Ocean and loses most of the towns on the Delaware River, which get put into NJ-12.

[Torie]

CA-25 is still unknown, but it seems like other than IL-14, in the late counting for everything that was close, the Dems lost them all, plus maybe (I have ignored this race and am clueless) the Kean thing as a lagniappe for the Pubs from outer space.

So 222 D, 213 R?

221-223 D absent more surprises.

Do you have he link to that?

I just used a NYT sheet from a I don't know its date stamp and played with it, to reflect updates.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/178bMAMhdFbzDQYG-JoeC9JnjaelSbQZUBS5mvTrTf18/htmlview#gid=0

[Tekken_Guy]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f03cb506-4850-456c-b12d-eaa371cb21c2

I was able to make a clearly R-leaning district for Kean that includes Westfield. Sherrill's district becomes about a point more R, Gottheimer's moves slightly to the left, and NJ-03 gains more of Ocean and loses most of the towns on the Delaware River, which get put into NJ-12.

Only roadblock is the NRCC, who may see Kean as their best bet against Sherrill and may encourage him to challenge her. Any Republican can win the new NJ-07 but Sherrill will be hard to beat even in a Biden midterm if Kean plays it safe. NJ probably won't draw such a district if Kean doesn't want it.

If I was in charge of the NRCC, that'd be my advice to him.

[n1240]

If there are about 40,000 ballots left in NJ-7, Kean would need to win them by something like 65%(napkin math). That seems doable looking at the recent drops, but I don't think it's time to be writing Malinowski's political obituary just yet.

I wonder if there is more than 40k ballots left though. NJ Globe just offers it as an estimate - they seem to have an idea of how many are in Morris and Hunterdon respectively, but there is probably a good number of provisionals to consider in Somerset county as well.

I think Union County probably has around 20k left based on the following - it's reasonable to expect at least 10% more prez votes than 2016, which would equal 245927 prez votes this year. 200561 prez votes are currently counted, would indicate 45366 more to count, currently NJ-07 is 48% of the prez vote, so assuming this rate remains the same it would indicate 22k more votes from the NJ-07 portion of Union County. It could still be fewer votes, but if anything I think it's more likely to exceed this number because turnout is up nationwide and the amount of registered voters has increased by a magnitude of more than 10% from 2016. Overall wouldn't be surprised if outstanding ballots in the district is closer to 60k. Somerset County is currently at 115% of the 2016 total within the district, and Hunterdon and Warren are both at 121% (and both still have some ballots to count).

I don't think there are 40k left. NJ estimated about 4 million total votes, they've basically hit that. I'm sure theres some extra provisionals out and a few more to count, but not nearly enough to change the outcome of the race.

https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/11/nj-election-2020-mail-in-ballots-hit-4-4-million-heres-turnout-by-county/6235249002/

Seems to line up well with my priors. Suggests a bit fewer in Union off just mail, but they have 40k mail county wide left to count even though I said 45k. Somerset has about 13k left, translates to about 10k in NJ-07; Hunterdon has about 4k left, Morris has 85k left (actually a bit less because NYTimes/Morris County website might be behind), which lines up alright with the county report that there is 17k left. Of course this doesn't even consider provisional ballots I believe, which could easily number to 20k minimum. Malinowski's path definitely looks worse and worse the more data I find on the race.

[Mr.Phips]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f03cb506-4850-456c-b12d-eaa371cb21c2

I was able to make a clearly R-leaning district for Kean that includes Westfield. Sherrill's district becomes about a point more R, Gottheimer's moves slightly to the left, and NJ-03 gains more of Ocean and loses most of the towns on the Delaware River, which get put into NJ-12.

That’s basically a Republican gerrymander.  The commission will draw an incumbent protection map.

NJ-03 will drop Ocean (to NJ-04) and pick up a big chunk of Mercer from NJ-04.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1326662964032778241?s=19