2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Battista Minola 1616]

I am just going to quip that I strongly want this thread to break the round magic number of 20,000 posts before it gets locked.

Also, I would not have expected New York City to swing Republican so much (although there were signals).

[Non Swing Voter]

JFC.  look at all those wasted Biden votes.  Each of those boroughs has more votes than tiny states like South Dakota.  NYC deserves 10 senators.

NYC should have its own governor...and they can take ours.

Literally no-one else wants her.  She's the biggest freakshow since this:

[Annatar]

Looks like NC will end its 4 election streak of trending democratic, 2004, 2008, 2012 and 2016 it trended democratic, this election it will trend Republican for the first time since 2000.

[South Dakota Democrat]

JFC.  look at all those wasted Biden votes.  Each of those boroughs has more votes than tiny states like South Dakota.  NYC deserves 10 senators.

NYC should have its own governor...and they can take ours.

Literally no-one else wants her.  She's the biggest freakshow since this:

Like, sure, I know at the end of the day South Dakota is going to South Dakota and we'll have a Republican governor for the foreseeable future (although Noem only won by 3 points in 2018), but Noem is one of the worst Republicans in the country...and that's saying something.  I hated her when she was in Congress, too, but she has gotten markedly worse in her new role, and has inflicted far more damage.

[Neptunium]

I can imagine republican will keep get more vote in the future, which make TX, FL staying red.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

I can imagine republican will keep get more vote in the future, which make TX, FL staying red.

Texas is moving left.

Florida........is Florida.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The return of the horrid ultra-light blue color.

Ultra-light blue is not horrid, but you'd do everyone a favour if you could set blank states at a darker shade of grey.

Definately, but I'm a mean person so I won't

The only mean thing you do is keeping spelling "definately" instead of "definitely".

(sorry for the IndyRep moment; it triggers me as much as it triggers him)

Sorry, I'll definately try to be better in the future, but no promises.

[Tender Branson]

WA has certified:

https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-joe-biden-washington-elections-voter-registration-2d345435e0163cd704c9d2a86a10131d

[Badger]

Does anyone have the NPV to two decimal points now?  The NYT is only to one.  It's obvious that Pennsylvania and New Jersey have now trended Republican.  Alabama, North Carolina, and even North Dakota may now be R-trending as well, but I'll need two decimal points to confirm those.

Biden: 51.28%
Trump: 46.89%

Trump failed to increase his popular vote share by even a full single percentage Point.

I'm not sure why that makes me happy, but it does.

[Badger]

Kinda crazy to think that in 2024 there will be voters who literally never experienced a Republican Candidate winning the popular vote in their whole lifetime.

Kind of crazier to think there are people in their early 30s who only experienced it once!

[Tintrlvr]

Kinda crazy to think that in 2024 there will be voters who literally never experienced a Republican Candidate winning the popular vote in their whole lifetime.

This was also true going into the 1952 Presidential election, for what it's worth.

[Hammy]

I can imagine republican will keep get more vote in the future, which make TX, FL staying red.

Both will increase because the population is increasing. Texas is probably swing state territory in a decade, probably similar to where North Carolina is at the moment.

[Hnv1]

A la Wasserman Ontario Co NY also flipped

[Badger]

A la Wasserman Ontario Co NY also flipped

So hopefully someone beer can help sort out my Sirius election nerd Juju.

Does anyone know if the numbers on Dave's map for New York are finals? Specifically, do we know if Warren County has certified its results? I'm usually not into map Aesthetics, but if Biden could pick up just 60 votes and flip the county it would look so nice to have that almost unbroken string, - Putnam County, from the Adirondacks to the city.

Does it appear by won the state outside of New York City? How about north of the city excluding Trump's majority on Long Island?

[Hnv1]

A la Wasserman Ontario Co NY also flipped

So hopefully someone beer can help sort out my Sirius election nerd Juju.

Does anyone know if the numbers on Dave's map for New York are finals? Specifically, do we know if Warren County has certified its results? I'm usually not into map Aesthetics, but if Biden could pick up just 60 votes and flip the county it would look so nice to have that almost unbroken string, - Putnam County, from the Adirondacks to the city.

Does it appear by won the state outside of New York City? How about north of the city excluding Trump's majority on Long Island?

Trump narrowly won upstate NY in 2016 iirc so adding the Biden swing means he's probably won 56-8% of the upstate vote

[Annatar]

Interesting thing to note in the Fox exit polls, there is a 10% difference in margin between non-college white and and women R+31 and R+21 but a massive 26% gap between college white men and college white women, R+6 and D+20, it seems college moves women much more towards the democrats than it does men.

[FrancoAgo]

Interesting thing to note in the Fox exit polls, there is a 10% difference in margin between non-college white and and women R+31 and R+21 but a massive 26% gap between college white men and college white women, R+6 and D+20, it seems college moves women much more towards the democrats than it does men.

as i can read the numbers the fox polls overestimated Trump % and abit underestimated the Biden %, so, the polls numbers need some works

[Annatar]

Interesting thing to note in the Fox exit polls, there is a 10% difference in margin between non-college white and and women R+31 and R+21 but a massive 26% gap between college white men and college white women, R+6 and D+20, it seems college moves women much more towards the democrats than it does men.

as i can read the numbers the fox polls overestimated Trump % and abit underestimated the Biden %, so, the polls numbers need some works

The age crosstabs suggest a Biden win of 3.9%, he will win by 4.4% so it is only off 0.5%.

[FrancoAgo]

The age crosstabs suggest a Biden win of 3.9%, he will win by 4.4% so it is only off 0.5%.

yes need a rework for the 0.5% or 0.6% if and that remain in NY&CA is enough

[wbrocks67]

Does anyone have the NPV to two decimal points now?  The NYT is only to one.  It's obvious that Pennsylvania and New Jersey have now trended Republican.  Alabama, North Carolina, and even North Dakota may now be R-trending as well, but I'll need two decimal points to confirm those.

Biden: 51.28%
Trump: 46.89%

Trump failed to increase his popular vote share by even a full single percentage Point.

I'm not sure why that makes me happy, but it does.

It does, because it's truly horrific #s for an incumbent.

[wbrocks67]

It also seems pretty clear that incumbency certainly helped Trump with Latinos. Just look at the Bronx for Obama and Bush. They both increased their margins running for their 2nd terms as well.

[American2020]

List of Electors from WI

Meg Andrietsch
Shelia Stubbs
Ronald Martin
Mandela Barnes
Khary Penebaker
Mary Arnold
Patty Schachtner
Shannon Holsey
Tony Evers
Benjamin Wikler

https://www.archives.gov/files/electoral-college/2020/ascertainment-wisconsin.pdf

[pbrower2a]

Electoral Vote tracker, based on official/certified states + DC

41/51:

211 Trump
159 Biden

November 5th
Delaware

November 6th
New Hampshire

November 10th
Oklahoma
South Dakota
Vermont

November 11th
South Carolina
Wyoming

November 12th
North Dakota

November 17th
Florida

November 18th
Idaho
Mississippi
Virginia

November 19th
Louisiana
Massachusetts

November 20th
Georgia
Kentucky

November 23rd
Alabama
Maine (3 EV Biden, 1 EV Trump)
Michigan
Utah

November 24th
Arkansas
Hawaii
Indiana
Minnesota
Nevada
New Mexico
North Carolina
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Texas

November 25th
Connecticut

November 30th
Alaska
Arizona
Iowa
Montana
Nebraska (4 EV Trump, 1 EV Biden)
Rhode Island
Wisconsin

December 1st
Kansas

December 2nd
District of Columbia
Washington
West Virginia


December 3rd
Oregon
West Virginia one day early

December 4th
Illinois

December 7th
New York

December 8th
Maryland
Missouri
New Jersey

December 11th
California

December 14th
Electoral College votes

Unknown dates
Colorado (missed Nov. 30 deadline)
Tennessee (missed Nov. 23 deadline)

Results:

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html
https://cookpolitical.com/2020-national-popular-vote-tracker?

Certificates of Ascertainment:

https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2020

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Your dates for December are a little off, pbrower; today is only the 2nd.

[Nyvin]

Your dates for December are a little off, pbrower; today is only the 2nd.

and change KS and WV to blue