2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Mike88]

When will we know the first results from the mail ballots in NY? I know they are slow to count.

[wbrocks67]

So Biden is easily breaking 80,000,000 votes at this point, right?  Just incredible.  Hopefully Trump stays below 75,000,000.

This is what keeps me sane - while Trump ultimately got way more votes than 2016 too, the fact that with record breaking turnout, Biden will still ultimately be about 7-8 million and ~5% ahead of Trump, an incumbent, which is hard to do - means this really was a repudiation of Trumpism any way you slice it.

What keeps me hopeful is the idea that the Dem gains are more permanent than the Rep gains.  We dramatically expanded our outreach this year with registration, fundraising and volunteerism.  That feels more permanent than Trump's magical ability to get Facebook voters to the polls.  We already saw in 2018 that those people don't show up when Trump isn't on the ballot.  If Trump and the GOP have a schism, they won't turn up in 2022 either, while the Dems can maintain the organizational edge they built this cycle.

Not to mention, I do truly wonder if the lack of on the ground organization (in terms of door knocking, etc.) DID hurt us this year. So it's possible that we may have been done better down ballot (and even up ballot) if our registration drives and door knocking didn't get paused for months, while the GOP kept going. This obviously won't be a problem in 22/24 without a pandemic too.

[wbrocks67]

When will we know the first results from the mail ballots in NY? I know they are slow to count.

also - are they going to release them in painstaking batches or in like huge dumps?

[S019ian Liberal]

whether justly or not, i mean like of course...bro! afterman.

[Panda Express]

So Biden is easily breaking 80,000,000 votes at this point, right?  Just incredible.  Hopefully Trump stays below 75,000,000.

This is what keeps me sane - while Trump ultimately got way more votes than 2016 too, the fact that with record breaking turnout, Biden will still ultimately be about 7-8 million and ~5% ahead of Trump, an incumbent, which is hard to do - means this really was a repudiation of Trumpism any way you slice it.

What keeps me hopeful is the idea that the Dem gains are more permanent than the Rep gains.  We dramatically expanded our outreach this year with registration, fundraising and volunteerism.  That feels more permanent than Trump's magical ability to get Facebook voters to the polls.  We already saw in 2018 that those people don't show up when Trump isn't on the ballot.  If Trump and the GOP have a schism, they won't turn up in 2022 either, while the Dems can maintain the organizational edge they built this cycle.

If Trump (and the GOP to a lesser extent) keeps whining about a "rigged election", I can see some of the less political, less educated people that were swept up in Trumpmania disengaging/giving up on politics. After all, why bother voting if it's rigged and  I doubt they'll ever be as excited again

[wbrocks67]

It appears that OH and MS have also just given up on counting their mail in ballots....

[Tender Branson]

NY will take well into December to get the results.

OH and MS will be completely counted in ca. 2 weeks.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

so much for it swinging hard D

I don't remember this take at all

Wasn't there some polls showing Trump up by low double digits?

You talking about South Carolina or South Dakota?

South Dakota

Notably, the West River part of South Dakota did swing heavily Dem, while East River generally swung a bit towards Trump.

Source: NYTimes Swing Map

Oh look, it’s East River vs West River in South Dakota! Any South Dakota posters know why East River swung towards Trump, while West River swung towards Biden?

However the Biggest City in the State Sioux Falls (East River) swung +6.7% Biden:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411611.msg7764365#msg7764365

Good catch! It wasn’t quite as clear of an East vs West map as we’ve seen in some races there.

[Mike88]

It appears that OH and MS have also just given up on counting their mail in ballots....

It seems that Ohio accepts ballots until tomorrow, November 13th, maybe by then more votes will start to be announced. In Mississippi, the deadline for absentee ballots was last Tuesday, so they may be counting them.

[wbrocks67]

It appears that OH and MS have also just given up on counting their mail in ballots....

It seems that Ohio accepts ballots until tomorrow, November 13th, maybe by then more votes will start to be announced. In Mississippi, the deadline for absentee ballots was last Tuesday, so they may be counting them.

Interesting. If Ohio is accepting mail in ballots until tomorrow, it's quite possibly we see a decent sized blue shift there in the end (compared to where it is now)

[wbrocks67]

More vote out of Allegheny, Biden's lead 54K now statewide.

Joe Biden 3,390,729
Donald Trump 3,336,751

About ~8K provisionals out of Allegheny broke 55-45 for Biden. ~4K provisionals from Delaware Co broke 63-36.

[Mike88]

More vote out of Allegheny, Biden's lead 54K now statewide.

Joe Biden 3,390,729
Donald Trump 3,336,751

About ~8K provisionals out of Allegheny broke 55-45 for Biden. ~4K provisionals from Delaware Co broke 63-36.

That's quite high for Trump, isn't it?

[DINGO Joe]

More vote out of Allegheny, Biden's lead 54K now statewide.

Joe Biden 3,390,729
Donald Trump 3,336,751

About ~8K provisionals out of Allegheny broke 55-45 for Biden. ~4K provisionals from Delaware Co broke 63-36.

That's quite high for Trump, isn't it?

It may have been from the less D part of the county.  They still have another batch to process plus disputed ones.  Outside of the Philly area though, there won't be a treasure trove of D votes.

[Person Man]

The provos are ED votes, right? My guess is that Election Day stuff will be Trump+13 of county and that non-ED stuff will be like Biden+20.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/myhlee/status/1326928906239270912
https://twitter.com/myhlee/status/1326939021931646981

[Hnv1]

Likelihood of workers in very red and remote districts suddenly “finding” votes for Trump?

[emailking]

They deleted his victory apparently.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1326926226888544256

[Earthling]

Likelihood of workers in very red and remote districts suddenly “finding” votes for Trump?

Not 15.000 of them.

[Alben Barkley]

They deleted his victory apparently.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1326926226888544256

Twitter needs to stop saying "disputed" and just say "false."

[BlueSwan]

They deleted his victory apparently.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1326926226888544256

What the hell is this nonsense. I assume that it is completely false, but does anybody have any info?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Adam Klasfeld is live-tweeting a court hearing for one of the Trump campaign lawsuits, this one in Maricopa County AZ.  Key takeaways so far (click to read the whole thread if you're interested):

https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1326944834528161792

[GeorgiaModerate]

GOP senators John Thune, Lindsey Graham say that Biden should receive classified intelligence briefings.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Arizona is no longer in doubt, but for those interested: Pinal County zeroed out their estimated ballots remaining (they only had 135 before that).  There are now five counties with a significant number (>10) of estimated ballots left:

Pima: 10,700, currently 59-40 Biden
Maricopa: 6,715, 50-48 Biden
Cochise: 3,319, 58-40 Trump
Yuma: 2,155, 52-46 Trump
Apache: 1,700, 66-33 Biden

[Person Man]

Arizona is no longer in doubt, but for those interested: Pinal County zeroed out their estimated ballots remaining (they only had 135 before that).  There are now five counties with a significant number (>10) of estimated ballots left:

Pima: 10,700, currently 59-40 Biden
Maricopa: 6,715, 50-48 Biden
Cochise: 3,319, 58-40 Trump
Yuma: 2,155, 52-46 Trump
Apache: 1,700, 66-33 Biden

Not all will be counted.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Arizona is no longer in doubt, but for those interested: Pinal County zeroed out their estimated ballots remaining (they only had 135 before that).  There are now five counties with a significant number (>10) of estimated ballots left:

Pima: 10,700, currently 59-40 Biden
Maricopa: 6,715, 50-48 Biden
Cochise: 3,319, 58-40 Trump
Yuma: 2,155, 52-46 Trump
Apache: 1,700, 66-33 Biden

Not all will be counted.

Right, the lion's share of those are provisionals.