2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Hammy]

How did Nevada go from having 100,001 votes left to 140,001 votes in a couple of hours?

They need to find a way to make the counting take even longer than it already has

[Calthrina950]

Dan Crenshaw slaps down Georgia's newest Qongresswoman:

https://twitter.com/DanCrenshawTX/status/1324806575597461504

I see you Dan.

I'm glad that Crenshaw is calling Taylor-Greene out, and this is a reminder of why most people garnered a favorable impression of him when he first ran back in 2018, and can also help explain why he easily won reelection this year. Yes, he's been a staunchly conservative Republican in the House, but he's sane.

[pppolitics]

One thing that I haven't seen discussed much is that Biden is overperforming House Democrats by a few points. (i.e. PA-1, PA-7, PA-8 and PA-17)

That means that many voters are voting for both Biden and down-ballot Republicans.

[Hammy]

[snip]

Media's being given FAR too much credit here--they aren't scared, they are reveling in this. To them, its a sporting match and they're on a high from all the ratings its bringing in, and are going to drag this out as long as they can, not caring in the slightest about the damage they're doing to the country. It's the same strategy they employed in 2016 that got Trump elected in the first place. It's the same strategy they've been employing his entire presidency, giving voice to the lowest scum of society, treating it like it's perfectly normal, and getting those clicks.

The media truly is the enemy--that's one thing Trump was right on, albeit for the opposite reason.

[BudgieForce]

I think Allegheny county can start dropping their ballot numbers at 5pm.

[Inmate Trump]

I expect Greene to be censured within the first month or so of the next congress.

I'm sure she will be.  Unfortunately she's going to be around for a while, I'm afraid.  She's in a district that will never vote against her.

[Rand]

How did Nevada go from having 100,001 votes left to 140,001 votes in a couple of hours?

Biden’s shadow army working hard forging signatures and duplicating ballots.

[GeorgiaModerate]

One thing that I haven't seen discussed much is that Biden is overperforming House Democrats by a few points. (i.e. PA-1, PA-7, PA-8 and PA-17)

That means that many voters are voting for both Biden and down-ballot Republicans.

I have seen a suggested explanation for this: there are many independents and Republicans who really don't like Trump (obviously true).  In 2018, their only way to take it out on Trump was to vote for Congressional Democrats, since Trump wasn't on the ballot, leading to the blue wave.  But this year they could have their cake and eat it too: vote against Trump while also voting for downballot Republicans who they're more comfortable with.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/RileySnyder/status/1324815171051663360

And why aren't They calling PA?
They are basically aiding and abetting any hairbrained election theft scheme by convincing the public that a clear victory is a 'who can really say' situation

[GeorgiaModerate]

I expect Greene to be censured within the first month or so of the next congress.

I'm sure she will be.  Unfortunately she's going to be around for a while, I'm afraid.  She's in a district that will never vote against her.

We need to get Adam to run against her.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://twitter.com/RileySnyder/status/1324815171051663360

And why aren't They calling PA?

Because it's theoretically possible that the 40k provisional ballots out of Philadelphia are massively Trumpy.

Yes, really. That's the stated reason.

[DaleCooper]

I'm expecting her to pull a gun on somebody on the House floor at some point. She did imply that she wanted to kill members of the Squad.

I'd be surprised if she didn't interrupt Biden's State of the Union, assuming she can attend one depending on how COVID affects that.

[Roll Roons]

One thing that I haven't seen discussed much is that Biden is overperforming House Democrats by a few points. (i.e. PA-1, PA-7, PA-8 and PA-17)

That means that many voters are voting for both Biden and down-ballot Republicans.

Apples to oranges. PA-01 is the only one of those four districts with a Republican incumbent. Said incumbent happens to be arguably the most moderate Republican in the House and has a very strong local brand.

Though not sure what the deal is with the other three districts.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Maricopa only has what, 140K left? If the rest of it goes like they just did today, Trump would only net like 10-12K votes out of that. Biden +40K right now. Not nearly enough.

Hope so, if only because I heavily leaned into the AZ left of WI thing and that should just do it.

[lfromnj]

I expect Greene to be censured within the first month or so of the next congress.

I'm sure she will be.  Unfortunately she's going to be around for a while, I'm afraid.  She's in a district that will never vote against her.

The GOP does need her district to crack the Atlanta burbs I can see her lose Bachmann style by the end of the 2020's in a still Safe R district thats trending D.

[Crumpets]

The Georgia numbers are fluctuating by a couple dozen votes in both directions every few minutes. Looks like they're going through those provisionals and overseas votes.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

One thing that I haven't seen discussed much is that Biden is overperforming House Democrats by a few points. (i.e. PA-1, PA-7, PA-8 and PA-17)

That means that many voters are voting for both Biden and down-ballot Republicans.

It seems like the House NPV is about two points to the right of the presidential NPV.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Democrats went from holding 87 of the 100 largest counties to 91 of the 100 largest. We are getting there. Who knows we may be at 96/100 come 2024 unless that bipolar county with two names pulls something.

[Niemeyerite]

Democrats went from holding 87 of the 100 largest counties to 91 of the 100 largest. We are getting there. Who knows we may be at 96/100 come 2024 unless that bipolar county with two names pulls something.

Which are the ones we're not winning yet?

[GeorgiaModerate]

More from Nate Silver on the PA provisionals:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324823265165103112

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Democrats went from holding 87 of the 100 largest counties to 91 of the 100 largest. We are getting there. Who knows we may be at 96/100 come 2024 unless that bipolar county with two names pulls something.

I don't expect 2016 and 2020 suburban trends to continue in 2024.  The downballot races this year show that people have overestimated the extent to which the suburbs were revolting against Republicans.  Rather, they were simply turning against Donald Trump himself.

[DaleCooper]

Remember what happened to King in Iowa? If Greene makes a fool of herself and looses all power as a Representative during her term she will probably lose the primary, and the GOP will fund someone pretty heavily to beat her if need be.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Democrats went from holding 87 of the 100 largest counties to 91 of the 100 largest. We are getting there. Who knows we may be at 96/100 come 2024 unless that bipolar county with two names pulls something.

Which are the ones we're not winning yet?

Collin and Denton

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

So has Allegheny already processed their ballots and is just waiting for 5pm to report the count? Or is 5pm when they can start processing (in which case it we might not even get them at all today)?

[Badger]

Remember what happened to King in Iowa? If Greene makes a fool of herself and looses all power as a Representative during her term she will probably lose the primary, and the GOP will fund someone pretty heavily to beat her if need be.

Kings District was conservative, but never as burning ruby red as greenes