2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[GeneralMacArthur]

So if Biden already won, why isn't anything called? Do they fear Trump too much?

If you're a network, you REALLY don't want to get this one wrong.  Just wait 48 hours until we go from 95% sure to 99.9% sure.

[forsythvoter]

Clayton just reported another 268 ballots. Went for Biden 249-19. Biden 92% in this batch.

Trump lead in GA now +1,479

[Badger]

So got off work a little early, check into Atlas and had to go through about (70) additional pages since I last checked in, much of which was relatively irrelevant.

Am I the only one who has read all (519) pages of this thread since I don't have anyone on ignore?

So basically, we're either waiting for Biden to take the lead in GA Tonight in Clayton County, or if not than after Gwinnett reports tomorrow Morning, but even so likely not called by networks bcs of Provisionals and Overseas Ballots (Plus Recount Zone).

PA might well see Biden take a lead Tonight from a combination of Philly updates every two hours (are they counting all Night?) or miscellaneous counties reporting updates?

Allegheny likely won't be the County to push Biden over the top, bcs counting won't be restarted until Tomorrow.

Is that a correct summary of the situation now?

I've been reading every one too man. I just wish they would call it and start the next chapter. The endless court wars.

1876/2020: when stealing one state like 2000 isn't enough.

jfk stole illinois but that's okay tho

Debatable, but even if true he still would have won the election without Illinois.

Please learn both basic history and arithmetic before posting again.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Newsflash: Trump is losing every uncalled state besides Alaska.

You're forgetting NC, right?

Biden is going to win NC. Ballots have until the 12th to arrive.

NC is a heavy lift, how about the senate race?

Mr. Historically Sexy is underperforming Biden so seems even more unlikely he wins it.

Goddamn dumbass MAY have cost us the Senate, depending on hiw the run-offs go.

Seeing as the GA races probably go the same way, another race wouldn't cost the Senate.

No I can definitely see Warnock-Perdue voters, give how much weaker Loeffer was in head to head polling. Inb4 ‘polling in 2020’

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

So if Biden already won, why isn't anything called? Do they fear Trump too much?

If you're a network, you REALLY don't want to get this one wrong.  Just wait 48 hours until we go from 95% sure to 99.9% sure.

Obviously they remember 2000, where they called FL for Gore, retracted it, called it for Bush, retracted it and also called NM for Gore and retracted it.

[forsythvoter]

Newsflash: Trump is losing every uncalled state besides Alaska.

You're forgetting NC, right?

Biden is going to win NC. Ballots have until the 12th to arrive.

NC is a heavy lift, how about the senate race?

Mr. Historically Sexy is underperforming Biden so seems even more unlikely he wins it.

Goddamn dumbass MAY have cost us the Senate, depending on hiw the run-offs go.

Seeing as the GA races probably go the same way, another race wouldn't cost the Senate.

No I can definitely see Warnock-Perdue voters, give how much weaker Loeffer was in head to head polling. Inb4 ‘polling in 2020’

My votes in the GA Senate runoffs are up for grabs. Look forward to discussing with everyone in the next couple of months. Curious to hear what Biden's and the Senate Republican's policies are.

Now back to the presidential race.

[Dr. Frankenstein]

Clayton just reported another 268 ballots. Went for Biden 249-19. Biden 92% in this batch.

Trump lead in GA now +1,479

I went to bed about 8 hours ago. How does it look in GA, will Biden pull the upset?

[BlueSwan]

What is the status in the house? Is the majority secure for democrats?

[Ferguson97]

Clayton just reported another 268 ballots. Went for Biden 249-19. Biden 92% in this batch.

Trump lead in GA now +1,479

I went to bed about 8 hours ago. How does it look in GA, will Biden pull the upset?

He's on track to overtake him, but there's still the military ballots and it's likely headed for a recount regardless.

My assumption is Biden ends up winning it.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I’m not too proud of my state (KY trended SLIGHTLY against Trump, but not nearly as much as I hoped).

But I AM proud of my county. Biden’s win of about 60% here in Fayette is the greatest of any candidate since Reagan in 1984. I think the greatest for any Democrat ever.

FDR?

[Bootes Void]

Clayton just reported another 268 ballots. Went for Biden 249-19. Biden 92% in this batch.

Trump lead in GA now +1,479

I went to bed about 8 hours ago. How does it look in GA, will Biden pull the upset?

He will pull it off but it will take a while before everything counted

[Hammy]

What is the status in the house? Is the majority secure for democrats?

As far as I know they've finished counting for the day, the rest won't likely get counted until tomorrow.

[forsythvoter]

Clayton just reported another 268 ballots. Went for Biden 249-19. Biden 92% in this batch.

Trump lead in GA now +1,479

I went to bed about 8 hours ago. How does it look in GA, will Biden pull the upset?

Looks very good for Biden. He's likely to end with a +3k lead once all the mail-ins are counted .

[GeneralMacArthur]

Newsflash: Trump is losing every uncalled state besides Alaska.

You're forgetting NC, right?

Biden is going to win NC. Ballots have until the 12th to arrive.

NC is a heavy lift, how about the senate race?

Mr. Historically Sexy is underperforming Biden so seems even more unlikely he wins it.

Goddamn dumbass MAY have cost us the Senate, depending on hiw the run-offs go.

Seeing as the GA races probably go the same way, another race wouldn't cost the Senate.

No I can definitely see Warnock-Perdue voters, give how much weaker Loeffer was in head to head polling. Inb4 ‘polling in 2020’

My votes in the GA Senate runoffs are up for grabs. Look forward to discussing with everyone in the next couple of months.

If you follow politics closely enough that you're on Atlas, why would you want to keep Mitch McConnell in charge of Congress, ensuring that absolutely nothing gets done for the next two years?

If Ossoff and Warnock don't win, we're basically doomed to another two years of frustration, gridlock, and brinksmanship.

Also, why would you reward the party that completely sold out to Donald Trump with your vote?  McConnell has been Trump's personal hatchet man for the last four years and now we want to turn around and act like he's a respectable political player?  The party has to suffer some kind of punishment, some kind of time in the wilderness, for what they've done to the country under Trump.  Otherwise, they'll just do it again, seeing as they suffered no consequences.

Four years of Trumpism, and we're going to go back to the 2014 status quo of Mitch refusing to pass any legislation and turning the Senate into a vehicle for partisan hackery?  The country deserves better.

[Bootes Void]

What is the status in the house? Is the majority secure for democrats?

Dems have 209 seats and will likely end up around 225 or so.a fairly underwhelming performance

[BlueSwan]

Clayton just reported another 268 ballots. Went for Biden 249-19. Biden 92% in this batch.

Trump lead in GA now +1,479

I went to bed about 8 hours ago. How does it look in GA, will Biden pull the upset?

He's on track to overtake him, but there's still the military ballots and it's likely headed for a recount regardless.

My assumption is Biden ends up winning it.

What was the deadline for military ballots again? It’s today (friday), right?

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

What is the status in the house? Is the majority secure for democrats?

Dems have 209 seats and will likely end up around 225 or so.a fairly underwhelming performance

I’ll take an ‘underwhelming’ returning majority any day.

[n1240]

Dems are guaranteed 221 seats at minimum. Ceiling seems to be 227 seats

[forsythvoter]

Clayton just reported another 268 ballots. Went for Biden 249-19. Biden 92% in this batch.

Trump lead in GA now +1,479

I went to bed about 8 hours ago. How does it look in GA, will Biden pull the upset?

He's on track to overtake him, but there's still the military ballots and it's likely headed for a recount regardless.

My assumption is Biden ends up winning it.

What was the deadline for military ballots again? It’s today (friday), right?

Yes, I think its 7pm Friday.

[2952-0-0]

Clayton just reported another 268 ballots. Went for Biden 249-19. Biden 92% in this batch.

Trump lead in GA now +1,479

I went to bed about 8 hours ago. How does it look in GA, will Biden pull the upset?

Looks very good for Biden. He's likely to end with a +3k lead once all the mail-ins are counted .

At current trends (not guaranteed), Biden is heading to +0.6% in GA, on par with Wisconsin. Trump did initially demand a recount in WI when Biden took the lead, before his staff talked him down.

https://twitter.com/rafalab/status/1324515740393897986

[NOVA Green]

Newsflash: Trump is losing every uncalled state besides Alaska.

You're forgetting NC, right?

NC is potentially doable for Biden (although perhaps a bit of a stretch).

There are over 2x votes outstanding compared to the size of the Trump lead....

Most of these are in the heavily DEM strongholds so a 2:1 Biden lead could do it (Even w/o late arriving ballot anticipated lawsuits).

Figure you already know that being a DEM from NC, but figured I would put it out there for those who haven't been tracking, and I had a few people ask me why I didn't consider NC to be a lock for Trump in the early Morning hours after Election Night.   

On Nytimes, most of the blue areas only 90% counting, instead of 99% just wondering whats that about

Wake, Orange, and Mecklenburg say hello...

does that include mailins, ed votes or early in person? I have no idea what to make of it

Thought it was something like both 60-70k Mail in Ballots and 60-70 Provisionals (I'm assuming the Former includes Military / Overseas Ballots).

Big problem with NC is provisional ballots may outnumber mail-in ballots in the remaining votes to count, and provisionals will probably be favorable for Trump since they're generally cast in-person and Trump won provisionals in the state narrowly in 2016.

n1240---- Can we necessarily assume that Provo Ballots will lean Trump in 2020 however, especially if DEM voters chose to not return their absentees and vote same day person instead?

Not disagreeing, but voting patterns in '16 and '20 might have shifted with COVID related concerns... so ?

[Stockdale for Veep]

Happy Friday!

The GA-PA death march is reaching critical mass.

[gf20202]

Clayton just reported another 268 ballots. Went for Biden 249-19. Biden 92% in this batch.

Trump lead in GA now +1,479

I went to bed about 8 hours ago. How does it look in GA, will Biden pull the upset?

He's on track to overtake him, but there's still the military ballots and it's likely headed for a recount regardless.

My assumption is Biden ends up winning it.

It's not military ballots. It's 9k mail ballots that might still come in or might not, which might include a small amount of military.

What's left otherwise ahead of the provisionals and mail-ins that may not actually exist:

Clayton County: Approx 3,900
 Cobb County: 700
 Floyd County: 444
 Forsyth County: ? Probably a small amount but people said earlier its nearly all done.
 Gwinnett County: 4,800
 Laurens County: 1,797
 Taylor County: 456

[forsythvoter]

Newsflash: Trump is losing every uncalled state besides Alaska.

You're forgetting NC, right?

Biden is going to win NC. Ballots have until the 12th to arrive.

NC is a heavy lift, how about the senate race?

Mr. Historically Sexy is underperforming Biden so seems even more unlikely he wins it.

Goddamn dumbass MAY have cost us the Senate, depending on hiw the run-offs go.

Seeing as the GA races probably go the same way, another race wouldn't cost the Senate.

No I can definitely see Warnock-Perdue voters, give how much weaker Loeffer was in head to head polling. Inb4 ‘polling in 2020’

My votes in the GA Senate runoffs are up for grabs. Look forward to discussing with everyone in the next couple of months.

If you follow politics closely enough that you're on Atlas, why would you want to keep Mitch McConnell in charge of Congress, ensuring that absolutely nothing gets done for the next two years?

If Ossoff and Warnock don't win, we're basically doomed to another two years of frustration, gridlock, and brinksmanship.

Also, why would you reward the party that completely sold out to Donald Trump with your vote?  McConnell has been Trump's personal hatchet man for the last four years and now we want to turn around and act like he's a respectable political player?  The party has to suffer some kind of punishment, some kind of time in the wilderness, for what they've done to the country under Trump.  Otherwise, they'll just do it again, seeing as they suffered no consequences.

Four years of Trumpism, and we're going to go back to the 2014 status quo of Mitch refusing to pass any legislation and turning the Senate into a vehicle for partisan hackery?  The country deserves better.

I'm hoping Trump will be gone by the time of the runoff and I never have to think of him again. To your point though, if the two Rs run as Trumpists in the runoff, I will vote D. I'd rather vote on their policy views, but running as the party of Trump means an automatic D vote from me.

[roxas11]

So if Biden already won, why isn't anything called? Do they fear Trump too much?

Some of it driven by the Media wanting big ratings and more clicks on their websites
for example The Los Angeles Times recently tweeted nonsense like this

https://twitter.com/latimes/status/1324358177249546240

The Los Angeles Times knows full well that biden is most likely going to win
yet they are still tweeting silly stuff like this and pretending that Biden may lose simply because they want to keep this Horse race BS going