2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Tender Branson]

Happy Friday!

The GA-PA death march is reaching critical mass.

If they’d count another week, it would be Friday the 13th.

[GeneralMacArthur]

I just noticed that Hickenlooper smashed Cory Gardner by 9%.

This when Mark Kelly is only up by 3.4%.  The two candidates were both considered about equally safe.

So much for the "Hickenlooper was a bad candidate" takes.  Looks like he's the only Senate candidate in a competitive race to match his polling.

[forsythvoter]

Clayton just reported another 268 ballots. Went for Biden 249-19. Biden 92% in this batch.

Trump lead in GA now +1,479

I went to bed about 8 hours ago. How does it look in GA, will Biden pull the upset?

Looks very good for Biden. He's likely to end with a +3k lead once all the mail-ins are counted .

At current trends (not guaranteed), Biden is heading to +0.6% in GA, on par with Wisconsin. Trump did initially demand a recount in WI when Biden took the lead, before his staff talked him down.

https://twitter.com/rafalab/status/1324515740393897986

I think there's only 13k or so votes left though, so there's not enough votes to get to 0.6% lead.

[pppolitics]

I just noticed that Hickenlooper smashed Cory Gardner by 9%.

This when Mark Kelly is only up by 3.4%.  The two candidates were both considered about equally safe.

So much for the "Hickenlooper was a bad candidate" takes.  Looks like he's the only Senate candidate in a competitive race to match his polling.

Kelly would have smoked Gardner had he been running in Colorado

[BlueSwan]

I just noticed that Hickenlooper smashed Cory Gardner by 9%.

This when Mark Kelly is only up by 3.4%.  The two candidates were both considered about equally safe.

So much for the "Hickenlooper was a bad candidate" takes.  Looks like he's the only Senate candidate in a competitive race to match his polling.

Hickenlooper still underperformed Biden. Those results just reflect that Colorado is now a safe D state.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I just noticed that Hickenlooper smashed Cory Gardner by 9%.

This when Mark Kelly is only up by 3.4%.  The two candidates were both considered about equally safe.

So much for the "Hickenlooper was a bad candidate" takes.  Looks like he's the only Senate candidate in a competitive race to match his polling.

Hickenlooper still underperformed Biden. Those results just reflect that Colorado is now a safe D state.

This. And somehow stronger D than NY with what's been counted so far.

[n1240]

n1240---- Can we necessarily assume that Provo Ballots will lean Trump in 2020 however, especially if DEM voters chose to not return their absentees and vote same day person instead?

Not disagreeing, but voting patterns in '16 and '20 might have shifted with COVID related concerns... so ?

NC unlike other states like PA doesn't have the condition where surrendering you mail-in ballot to vote in-person instead requires you to vote provisionally. NC doesn't actually register anyone has having voted until they actually return a ballot or go in-person to vote.

[Rep Jessica]

https://twitter.com/hjessy_/status/1324597801066598408

[Ferguson97]

I just noticed that Hickenlooper smashed Cory Gardner by 9%.

This when Mark Kelly is only up by 3.4%.  The two candidates were both considered about equally safe.

So much for the "Hickenlooper was a bad candidate" takes.  Looks like he's the only Senate candidate in a competitive race to match his polling.

Kelly would have smoked Gardner had he been running in Colorado

It's more of a reflection of polling than a reflection of Kelly. Arizona is still a very conservative state, his win is very impressive!

[Badger]

I just noticed that Hickenlooper smashed Cory Gardner by 9%.

This when Mark Kelly is only up by 3.4%.  The two candidates were both considered about equally safe.

So much for the "Hickenlooper was a bad candidate" takes.  Looks like he's the only Senate candidate in a competitive race to match his polling.

Well, it was one of the few States Biden at least came close to matching his polling, so....

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

I just noticed that Hickenlooper smashed Cory Gardner by 9%.

This when Mark Kelly is only up by 3.4%.  The two candidates were both considered about equally safe.

So much for the "Hickenlooper was a bad candidate" takes.  Looks like he's the only Senate candidate in a competitive race to match his polling.

I don’t think anyone thought Hickenlooper was a bad candidate. I think the general consensus was that a ham sandwich would beat Gardener so a moderate like Hickenlooper is suboptimal. TBF, I might just be replacing my thoughts with the general consensus.

[Ferguson97]

18K IN PA

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1324598021204692992

[Benjamin Frank]

Clayton just reported another 268 ballots. Went for Biden 249-19. Biden 92% in this batch.

Trump lead in GA now +1,479

I went to bed about 8 hours ago. How does it look in GA, will Biden pull the upset?

He's on track to overtake him, but there's still the military ballots and it's likely headed for a recount regardless.

My assumption is Biden ends up winning it.

It's not military ballots. It's 9k mail ballots that might still come in or might not, which might include a small amount of military.

What's left otherwise ahead of the provisionals and mail-ins that may not actually exist:

Clayton County: Approx 3,900
 Cobb County: 700
 Floyd County: 444
 Forsyth County: ? Probably a small amount but people said earlier its nearly all done.
 Gwinnett County: 4,800
 Laurens County: 1,797
 Taylor County: 456

Georgia is now 1,709 votes for Trump.

[Badger]

Pennsylvania wolf dump everything at noon today they said. Nevada will have a big update at 9 p.m. tonight they said. Clayton County will make its final dump at midnight tonight they said.

F*** this. I'm going to bed. If I miss Fox or one of the networks calling the election for Biden, at this point it's worth it to get some sleep.

[Stockdale for Veep]

How does Kornacki not have a blue checkmark???

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

I also think there is a general fear of being the first network to call the election.
Like I’ve said earlier, if we had these numbers Tuesday, everyone would have made the call by now.

[forsythvoter]

Clayton just reported another 268 ballots. Went for Biden 249-19. Biden 92% in this batch.

Trump lead in GA now +1,479

I went to bed about 8 hours ago. How does it look in GA, will Biden pull the upset?

He's on track to overtake him, but there's still the military ballots and it's likely headed for a recount regardless.

My assumption is Biden ends up winning it.

It's not military ballots. It's 9k mail ballots that might still come in or might not, which might include a small amount of military.

What's left otherwise ahead of the provisionals and mail-ins that may not actually exist:

Clayton County: Approx 3,900
 Cobb County: 700
 Floyd County: 444
 Forsyth County: ? Probably a small amount but people said earlier its nearly all done.
 Gwinnett County: 4,800
 Laurens County: 1,797
 Taylor County: 456

Georgia is now 1,709 votes for Trump.

GA SOS shut down for the night so I switched over to Decision Desk. Clayton has reported a few hundred more votes that narrowed the margin to 1,479

[NOVA Green]

18K IN PA

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1324598021204692992

Updates on the County reporting from any of our Atlas Swing / Grave Shift members closely tracking the results?

Remember the more crap we keep out of the way, the easier it will be for our Fellow Forum Community members to catch up in the morning....

I read Atlas just like my work emails, from earliest to latest....

[Benjamin Frank]

Clayton just reported another 268 ballots. Went for Biden 249-19. Biden 92% in this batch.

Trump lead in GA now +1,479

I went to bed about 8 hours ago. How does it look in GA, will Biden pull the upset?

He's on track to overtake him, but there's still the military ballots and it's likely headed for a recount regardless.

My assumption is Biden ends up winning it.

It's not military ballots. It's 9k mail ballots that might still come in or might not, which might include a small amount of military.

What's left otherwise ahead of the provisionals and mail-ins that may not actually exist:

Clayton County: Approx 3,900
 Cobb County: 700
 Floyd County: 444
 Forsyth County: ? Probably a small amount but people said earlier its nearly all done.
 Gwinnett County: 4,800
 Laurens County: 1,797
 Taylor County: 456

Georgia is now 1,709 votes for Trump.

GA SOS shut down for the night so I switched over to Decision Desk. Clayton has reported a few hundred more votes that narrowed the margin to 1,479

Oh nice.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

6% odds for Pelosi to be the next President. LOL.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6852/Will-Nancy-Pelosi-become-Acting-US-President-on-January-20

[pppolitics]

Biden's GA deficit is now 1267

[Stockdale for Veep]

I wouldn't be surprised if in the past 24 hours a pact was made by all the major news orgs that once Biden leads in PA, they all call the race in unison. After Trump's antics today, they don't want any hint of bias/uncertainty in their projections.

Fox and AP going rogue in AZ is the only reason no one has called NV yet.

[musicblind]

Biden's GA deficit is now 1267

Given that, do we know how many ballots are still out there?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Fox and AP going rogue in AZ is the only reason no one has called NV yet.

That shouldn't stop another network from calling it.

[Benjamin Frank]

Biden's GA deficit is now 1267

Irrespective of who wins or loses Georgia, Trump performed better virtually everywhere than the Republicans did in 2018, yet Brian Kamp won the governorship in Georgia by 53,000 votes.  I think this provides even more evidence that Brian Kamp stole the governorship.