2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

It rounds up, but Perdue is now a hair under 50%.

[Hassan 2022]

Call Nevada now.

[n1240]

Biden+3 in 11k new votes in Washoe, terrible for Trump who realistically needed to win this batch to have a chance in the state.

[wbrocks67]

Trump lead goes down to 13.5K in GA

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Call Nevada now.

[n1240]

Trump lead goes down to 13.5K in GA

Clayton added only 1k more votes, even though they verifiably had 6-7k more before this update.

[wbrocks67]

For both GA and PA, it's becoming very clear the mail-in votes are going to be significantly more Democratic than the counted vote so far - something on the order of 50-60% more in PA and maybe 20-30% more in GA (in counties where the D vote isn't already 80%+). You can tell how the votes might lean by looking at the 2016 results - most counties in PA are either flat are even more D this election so if the current totals show the opposite trend, you can bet the difference is the outstanding mail-in votes.

It's pretty safe to say Biden is going to end up winning PA and it's probably not going to be all that close either.

Yep, mail ballots even in pretty R counties are still giving Biden leads

[OBD]

Georgia down to 14,100 Trump lead per NYT.

[Bootes Void]

Call Nevada now.

If they did that, it would be funny to see Fox News call Joe Biden the next president before the other networks

[Crumpets]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324353932022480896
Trump secretly posts on Atlas. Don't @ me.

[wbrocks67]

So there was 61K earlier that were left to be *counted* in GA. How much is left now?

[HisGrace]

You hate to see it.

https://mobile.twitter.com/jeremymbarr/status/1324400156758953984?s=20

Seems like having some Dems working there would be fine if they are really fair and balanced.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

What are the chances we're heading to another 2000?

100%, and 1000 times worse.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

You hate to see it.

https://mobile.twitter.com/jeremymbarr/status/1324400156758953984?s=20

I tuned in to Fox & Friends for about 15 minutes yesterday just to see whether the right was freaking out yet, and saw them interview Mishkin about the ballot counting process.  It was exactly like what I imagine Anthony Fauci briefing Trump about coronavirus must be like.

[wbrocks67]

Georgia down to 14,100 Trump lead per NYT.

I would watch DDHQ, they're a bit quicker

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Yeah we're going to win NV although I don't love how close it is. Poor Xing though--thinking Biden would win it by 10.

[Figueira]

Will NV be called today? or is everyone sh**tting their pants hoping PA does the job for everyone?

NV being called before PA would be terrifying because only AP and Fox have called AZ, but Trump could come back there.

I sincerely hope either PA/GA is called first, or another org calls AZ.

GA would only get Biden to 269.

[jd7171]

Not sure what places like Erie, Lehigh, etc. in PA are doing. They haven't really reported any new mail ins in a while.

Erie had a small dump on NYT, Trump lead down from 5 to 3.5 give or take.

[HisGrace]

Georgia is going to be extremely close, Biden's lead seems to have slightly expanded in Nevada, and I am still not sure on Penn.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

When are they gonna call GA-07. It's so obvious that Bordeaux has this.

[Non Swing Voter]

For both GA and PA, it's becoming very clear the mail-in votes are going to be significantly more Democratic than the counted vote so far - something on the order of 50-60% more in PA and maybe 20-30% more in GA (in counties where the D vote isn't already 80%+). You can tell how the votes might lean by looking at the 2016 results - most counties in PA are either flat are even more D this election so if the current totals show the opposite trend, you can bet the difference is the outstanding mail-in votes.

It's pretty safe to say Biden is going to end up winning PA and it's probably not going to be all that close either.

Yep, mail ballots even in pretty R counties are still giving Biden leads

Yeah I've been noticing this happening in pretty much every state.  In R counties Biden tends to have a marginal lead in mail ins like 60-40.  In the blue counties it's more like 70-30.  In ultra blue counties like Philly it's probably close to 100%.

[brucejoel99]

What are the chances we're heading to another 2000?

100%, and 1000 times worse.

[Non Swing Voter]

Not sure what places like Erie, Lehigh, etc. in PA are doing. They haven't really reported any new mail ins in a while.

Erie had a small dump on NYT, Trump lead down from 5 to 3.5 give or take.

On TV yesterday someone quoted a source close to the vote count as saying that in Erie the mail in ballots being counted are going approximately 4-1 for Biden.

[n1240]

A few more votes reported from rural GA. Trump lead now down to +14,250. Interestingly,  these rural main-in votes went Democratic (1,800 Biden -1,300 Trump) even though the counties they are in are 2-1 Trump.

It's actually not that surprising to me having looked at some of the county splits by vote. Have seen counties where Trump wins by 30+ overall and Biden wins mail vote.

[Crumpets]

In other news, it looks like third parties performed phenomenally well in rural Alaska compared to elsewhere. The combined two-party vote in the North Slope only stands at 85.4% as of now.