2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[The Free North]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1324335432126136320?s=19

This is why getting the run-off with Ossoff and Warnock is important. Mitch is going to Mitch. And hopefully a Hail Mary happens and Cunningham squeaks out a stunner.

Not happening. Ossoff couldnt win the main election and trailed Biden badly. If Dems have the White House in January, Republicans will turn out in droves to keep the senate. Turnout for runoffs, even in 2008 when a filibuster proof majority was at stake, has favored Rs

[MillennialModerate]

Helpless democratic leadership energy coming from the Trump campaign.

Speaking of helpless. You’re a Democrat in Florida? How does that feel....?

Why don't you ask Senator Joe Kennedy?

Good point, the Democratic electorate is surprisingly incompetent for what is the most educated state in the nation

[GeneralMacArthur]

There are 11,000 left in Fulton
7,000 in Clayton
18,000 in Chatham

and a bunch of other counties IIRC.

Fulton is 72-26 Biden-Trump right now, so Biden would net 5,060 from those.
Clayton, 85-15, nets Biden 4,900.
Chatham, 58-41, nets Biden 3,060.
So that's at least 13,000 votes Biden can be expected to gain from those three counties.  He still needs 5,000 to come from the rest of the state.

[Beet]

Please celebrate, but don't gloat, if/when Biden takes the lead in these states counting mail ballots.  I don't believe that there is anything majorly fraudulent going on here, but it is still really hard watching apparent leads disappear even if you know it's coming.  I remember that well from the AZ-SEN and several CA House races in 2018.  We need to find a more efficient way of counting mail ballots going forward because this sort of result seems fishy to people who don't pay that close of attention to why it's happening, and that appearance can be real for so many people.

Get the Republican legislature to allow early processing of ballots.

This is intentional design, and it's designed by Republican Politicians.

If the Democrats want to influence state legislatures they will have to do mid-decade redistricting if they somehow win in the 2020s, because this year was a bust.

[SInNYC]

Just to drive everybody crazy for another few days, the overseas/veterans deadlines are later. According to https://www.fvap.gov/, its:
AZ: ED?
GA: Fri
PA: Nov 10
NV: Nov 10
NC: Nov 12
AK: Nov 18

Veterans are traditionally R and went 2-1 for Trump over Hillary, but pre election polls had them slightly leaning Biden this time (but we all know how good pre-election polls were).

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1324335432126136320?s=19

This is why getting the run-off with Ossoff and Warnock is important. Mitch is going to Mitch. And hopefully a Hail Mary happens and Cunningham squeaks out a stunner.

Not happening. Ossoff couldnt win the main election and trailed Biden badly. If Dems have the White House in January, Republicans will turn out in droves to keep the senate. Turnout for runoffs, even in 2008 when a filibuster proof majority was at stake, has favored Rs

The factors to consider here would be that 2008 Georgia isn't 2020 Georgia (i.e. if John Barrow can get 48% in a 2018 runoff, then Ossoff has a fighting chance in a 2020 runoff, especially thanks to Warnock's presumed coattails) & that R turnout could itself be depressed while D turnout continues to be motivated if Trump has already lost (& obviously isn't himself on the ballot again) while control of the Senate remains at stake.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324375334653988864?s=19

...no sh**t, he'd have won 400+ EVs without mail in ballots

Trump campaign has some real Scooby-Doo villain energy going.

[Sir Mohamed]

"Nane"... he must be rigging poles.

[charcuterie]

So people were saying we would get more Georgia results at 11, is that true?

[Holmes]

There are 11,000 left in Fulton
7,000 in Clayton
18,000 in Chatham

and a bunch of other counties IIRC.

Fulton is 72-26 Biden-Trump right now, so Biden would net 5,060 from those.
Clayton, 85-15, nets Biden 4,900.
Chatham, 58-41, nets Biden 3,060.
So that's at least 13,000 votes Biden can be expected to gain from those three counties.  He still needs 5,000 to come from the rest of the state.

VBMs in GA have been more Democratic than the counties as a whole so far, though.

[Kuumo]

Putting the WIN in Winnesota!

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

So people were saying we would get more Georgia results at 11, is that true?

Here you go, charcuterie:

https://twitter.com/NPRinskeep/status/1324331884910923779

[politics_king]

Ok, say this happened. They do know that ballots are being accepted for 3 additional days right? I swear, when you're on a sinking ship and you have no more life boats, the desperation is so apparent.

[BlueSwan]

Please celebrate, but don't gloat, if/when Biden takes the lead in these states counting mail ballots.  I don't believe that there is anything majorly fraudulent going on here, but it is still really hard watching apparent leads disappear even if you know it's coming.  I remember that well from the AZ-SEN and several CA House races in 2018.  We need to find a more efficient way of counting mail ballots going forward because this sort of result seems fishy to people who don't pay that close of attention to why it's happening, and that appearance can be real for so many people.

Well, allowing for the processing of mail ballots ahead of election day would certainly help a LOT, but republican legislatures in PA and MI did not want to allow that.

[Silent Hunter]

"Samuel" has just been put at serious personal risk.

[libertpaulian]

And looking at New England...I think it's safe to say the trends ARE real and 2016 was NOT a fluke.

[wbrocks67]

Wonder if many PA counties are waiting until noon to upload. They've been frozen for a while now.

[wbrocks67]

And looking at New England...I think it's safe to say the trends ARE real and 2016 was NOT a fluke.

In what way? NH, ME, etc all trended towards Ds after going nearly R in 2016

[The Free North]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1324335432126136320?s=19

This is why getting the run-off with Ossoff and Warnock is important. Mitch is going to Mitch. And hopefully a Hail Mary happens and Cunningham squeaks out a stunner.

Not happening. Ossoff couldnt win the main election and trailed Biden badly. If Dems have the White House in January, Republicans will turn out in droves to keep the senate. Turnout for runoffs, even in 2008 when a filibuster proof majority was at stake, has favored Rs

The factors to consider here would be that 2008 Georgia isn't 2020 Georgia (i.e. if John Barrow can get 48% in a 2018 runoff, then Ossoff as a fighting chance in a 2020 runoff, especially thanks to Warnock's presumed coattails) & that R turnout could itself be depressed while D turnout continues to be motivated if Trump has already lost (& obviously isn't himself on the ballot again) while control of the Senate remains at stake.

Republicans have more to lose in a runoff compared to Dems. 2020 will be closer than the blowout in 2008, but the point remains. If Ossoff cant win in the general, I don't think that bodes well for him. No clue how good Warnock will do, but if Biden couldnt boost Ossoff, why would Warnock.

[Ye We Can]

Ok, say this happened. They do know that ballots are being accepted for 3 additional days right? I swear, when you're on a sinking ship and you have no more life boats, the desperation is so apparent.

It's a meme, bruh.

[Diabolical Materialism]

He can't keep getting away with this

[MillennialModerate]

So people were saying we would get more Georgia results at 11, is that true?

Here you go, charcuterie:

https://twitter.com/NPRinskeep/status/1324331884910923779

Prepare for an epic let down

[ProudModerate2]

Oh boy.
More "shadow people" helping Biden.
LOL.

[MaxQue]

So people were saying we would get more Georgia results at 11, is that true?

Here you go, charcuterie:

https://twitter.com/NPRinskeep/status/1324331884910923779

Prepare for an epic let down

Please someone PM him pictures of Joe Kennedy III.

[Xing]

Please celebrate, but don't gloat, if/when Biden takes the lead in these states counting mail ballots.  I don't believe that there is anything majorly fraudulent going on here, but it is still really hard watching apparent leads disappear even if you know it's coming.  I remember that well from the AZ-SEN and several CA House races in 2018.  We need to find a more efficient way of counting mail ballots going forward because this sort of result seems fishy to people who don't pay that close of attention to why it's happening, and that appearance can be real for so many people.

I’m not going to gloat, in part because the overall result is actually quite disappointing for me, but if Biden narrowly pulling ahead is hard to watch, imagine how Trump winning felt to us in 2016, or how close this race is despite everything Trump has done, or how much Republicans have won despite not winning the majority of voters, seeing what’s happened with the Supreme Court, not to mention Republicans haven’t exactly done a good job of not “gloating.” It’s very difficult to be empathetic after what we’ve seen over the past four to five years, especially when those on the other side aren’t exactly rushing to be understanding or show empathy, or try to understand what we really want.