2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

SNIPPY-SNIP!

May I ask where you're getting these numbers for the remaining votes?

I was about to say, I think Meclazine's GA numbers are off in regard to outstanding vote.  Ditto for PA. 

[Meclazine for Israel]

May I ask where you're getting these numbers for the remaining votes?

NY Times. Even if it is short, Biden is still strong.

[Yeahsayyeah]

This election is getting on my nerves. I wish Biden could just clinch PA to get this nightmare over with.

Tomorrow night.

Sorry, that I am confused now, as you ar answering another European poster. Central European or American night?

[Tender Branson]

This election is getting on my nerves. I wish Biden could just clinch PA to get this nightmare over with.

Tomorrow night.

Sorry, that I am confused now, as you ar answering another European poster. Central European or American night?

I would assume that by tomorrow night PA time (= Saturday morning our time), Biden will have pulled ahead of Trump.

[Kalimantan]

GA margin down to 18,000 now.

It’s simply not happening.

Trumps final margin might be under 10k but he’s not losing that state for the simple fact there is hardly any vote left to overcome such a margin

It will be tight. Clayton County in Atlanta metro could be the clincher. Currently 85% Biden with over 85,000 ballots in his column and only 84% reported. Only two much smaller Trump counties have a higher remaining % of votes

[MillennialModerate]

GA - Biden down by 18,540 (96% counted)

Of the remaining ~204,500 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 111,500 of them - (54.5%

How do you get 204,500? Georgia Secretary of State said there are 90,375 left (and that was at 10:15pm)

[MillennialModerate]

And the doomers emerge...

You’d think you and others would lose the “doomer” label by now.

The “Doomers” have been proven right. It’s the sunshine brigade that needs an adjustment

[Hammy]

[snip]

So Biden wins as long as the plots stay at or above the line?

[Meclazine for Israel]

GA - Biden down by 18,540 (96% counted)

Of the remaining ~204,500 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 111,500 of them - (54.5%

How do you get 204,500? Georgia Secretary of State said there are 90,375 left (and that was at 10:15pm)

Based on estimates from NY Times.com.

Even if I throw in 90.375 instead of 200,000 into the Excel file, Biden needs 60.5% of the remaining vote to get 18,500 votes and win the state.

It just shortens the length of time he has to get the votes.

Very possible given the rate at which he is currently catching Trump (3:1).

Wisconsin and Michigan were worse last night with Biden needing 60% of the remaining vote at one stage, which he did comfortably.

It just comes down to whether he runs out of time.

[ObamaMichael]

May I just say this.. I really look up to the US, they are indeed the leader of the free world. But damn does it take long to count these votes..

[wbrocks67]

According to the Philadelphia county website, turnout was 51% and they’ve received a total of 233583
Mail votes with 97% counted.

https://results.philadelphiavotes.com/VoterTurnoutDetails.aspx?&cat=PREC

There 400K+ mail votes requested in PA, so that means there are many more left. 350K were returned by the end of Michael McDonald's updating

[Hindsight was 2020]

The major networks are catching up the nbc reporter from last night as Trump margin is down to 18k in Georgia

[philly09]

NYT is behind the PA count, it's a 154k margin. That was the last update around 11:30.

[wbrocks67]

I think its clear at this point that the AP and FOX called too early. They still could end up being correct, but this isn't a state you can be sure of at this point.

People need to stop acting like they know better here. I would assume AP and FOX have some data that we don't have.

[Tender Branson]

According to the Philadelphia county website, turnout was 51% and they’ve received a total of 233583
Mail votes with 97% counted.

https://results.philadelphiavotes.com/VoterTurnoutDetails.aspx?&cat=PREC

There 400K+ mail votes requested in PA, so that means there are many more left. 350K were returned by the end of Michael McDonald's updating

97% counted refers only to Philly's election-day precincts, not the mail ballots.

[MillennialModerate]

I think its clear at this point that the AP and FOX called too early. They still could end up being correct, but this isn't a state you can be sure of at this point.

People need to stop acting like they know better here. I would assume AP and FOX have some data that we don't have.

Maybe but if that were the case why would other networks not follow suit?

False projections happen a lot. 2016 DFP called Michigan for Hillary for instance ...

[MillennialModerate]

The major networks are catching up the nbc reporter from last night as Trump margin is down to 18k in Georgia

Huh? English please

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

This election is getting on my nerves. I wish Biden could just clinch PA to get this nightmare over with.

Don't think Biden's getting PA

Don’t say. You’ll be eaten alive like I did.

I’m in the minority but if I were betting I’d say Trump is likely to win this thing.

Biden falls short in Georgia by a hair
Biden falls short decently in NC
Biden lead slips away in AZ
Biden might hold on in NV but it’s not a sure thing
Bidens outstanding vote in PA has been GREATLY exaggerated

Please stop the excessive doomerism. This is just ridiculous. Just enjoy the fact that doomers were right and Trump overperformed massively, you’re embarrassing yourself.

[Rand]

And the doomers emerge...

You’d think you and others would lose the “doomer” label by now.

The “Doomers” have been proven right. It’s the sunshine brigade that needs an adjustment

That’s my first time ever using the “doomer” label. Seems I struck a nerve.

[MillennialModerate]

This election is getting on my nerves. I wish Biden could just clinch PA to get this nightmare over with.

Don't think Biden's getting PA

I’m not enjoying this for a single second.

It makes me sick. I’d be thrilled to be wrong

Don’t say. You’ll be eaten alive like I did.

I’m in the minority but if I were betting I’d say Trump is likely to win this thing.

Biden falls short in Georgia by a hair
Biden falls short decently in NC
Biden lead slips away in AZ
Biden might hold on in NV but it’s not a sure thing
Bidens outstanding vote in PA has been GREATLY exaggerated

Please stop the excessive doomerism. This is just ridiculous. Just enjoy the fact that doomers were right and Trump overperformed massively, you’re embarrassing yourself.

I’m not enjoying this for a single second

It makes me sick and I’d love to be wrong

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

GA - Biden down by 18,540 (96% counted)

Of the remaining ~204,500 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 111,500 of them - (54.5%

How do you get 204,500? Georgia Secretary of State said there are 90,375 left (and that was at 10:15pm)

Based on estimates from NY Times.com.

Even if I throw in 90.375 instead of 200,000 into the Excel file, Biden needs 60.5% of the remaining vote to get 18,500 votes and win the state.

It just shortens the length of time he has to get the votes.

Very possible given the rate at which he is currently catching Trump (3:1).

Wisconsin and Michigan were worse last night and Biden won needing 62.4% of the remaining vote.

What does your algorithm say when you plug in "450,000 ballots remaining" and Biden trailing by around 154,000 for PA?

[wbrocks67]

Do people realize that Biden is only down like 150K in PA right now and there is 120K+ left to count in Philly *alone*?

[philly09]

LT. Gov John Fetteraman is on. Ballots are being processed/counting in Allegheny.

Confident that Biden will get the votes to put him over from Philly and the surrounding burbs plus Chester County.  

[ObamaMichael]

NOW LOOK, HERE'S THE DEAL:


90.375 votes left to count in Georgia. Some were counted, but these were left when the vote difference sat at around 25k. Let's give Trump 35% of the vote, Biden 65% of it.

65% of 90.375 = 58.743 votes
90.375 - 58.743 = 30.632 votes.
58.743 - 30.632 = 28.111 votes.

Is it likely? No
Is it still possible? DEFINITELY.

[wbrocks67]

DDHQ GA:

Trump 2,431,724 (49.57%)
Biden 2,413,184 (49.20%)

Biden now down only 18K. There were reports that 60K+ were still out in GA.

Perdue 2,432,536 (50.03%)
Ossoff 2,317,211 (47.66%)

It looks quite likely that Perdue/Ossoff goes to a runoff