2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/SunshineSt8Sam/status/1324256679312216064

Well, I guess we need to stop counting the votes then, before Trump can "steal" Arizona, MAGA girl.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Kalawao county, HI might have been Biden's best county. He beat Trump 23-1. It had voted 14 Hillary, 5 Stein, and 1 Trump.

[philly09]

GA margin down to 18,000 now.

[MillennialModerate]

GA margin down to 18,000 now.

It’s simply not happening.

Trumps final margin might be under 10k but he’s not losing that state for the simple fact there is hardly any vote left to overcome such a margin

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

GA margin down to 18,000 now.

So close to a runoff with Perdue at 50.07%.

[Tender Branson]

GA margin down to 18,000 now.

It’s simply not happening.

Trumps final margin might be under 10k but he’s not losing that state for the simple fact there is hardly any vote left to overcome such a margin

Tens of thousands of voters have the possibility until tomorrow to "cure" their rejected ballots.

So maybe it might happen, but Biden could lose AZ in return.

[philly09]

Just a heads up, Bob Casey will be on CNN in an hour.

[Angasboy15]

GA margin down to 18,000 now.

It’s simply not happening.

Trumps final margin might be under 10k but he’s not losing that state for the simple fact there is hardly any vote left to overcome such a margin

I think it's entirely feasible.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Sportsbet.com.au just paid out my bet on Joe Biden!

#presidentbidenrocks

Or did you bet on winner of the popular vote only, not the Presidency ?

Presidency.

Sportsbet.com.au are still taking bets on Joe Biden at $1.15 on the same outcome.

[Yeahsayyeah]

It’s simply not happening.

I think, everybody now has read your very data-driven and detailed take now  for only twenty times. Maybe, if you repeat it just fifty times more, the vote-counters will forget to count the votes, so it will happen, definitely. Unless this is the case, we just don't know, yet, it's a pure tossup. So, would you, please, just stop, spamming the thread with it?

[BlueSwan]

This election is getting on my nerves. I wish Biden could just clinch PA to get this nightmare over with.

[DaleCooper]

Just a heads up, Bob Casey will be on CNN in an hour.

This is what I'm waiting for. I feel like if he's no longer confident, then it's time to worry, but perhaps he can shed some light on what's going on in the state.

[ObamaMichael]

GA margin down to 18,000 now.

It’s simply not happening.

Trumps final margin might be under 10k but he’s not losing that state for the simple fact there is hardly any vote left to overcome such a margin

There were talks about 90.000 uncounted votes before it came down to 18.000 difference. Why so pessimistic?

[MillennialModerate]

This election is getting on my nerves. I wish Biden could just clinch PA to get this nightmare over with.

Same.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

NYT's Stephanie Saul (5:25AM):

"Republicans in Georgia were nervously assessing the vote count and promised to file lawsuits in a dozen or more counties aimed at knocking off votes here and there."

[MillennialModerate]

Trump by math needs just 57% of the remaining Arizona vote doesn’t that seem very doable ?

[philly09]

Just a heads up, Bob Casey will be on CNN in an hour.

This is what I'm waiting for. I feel like if he's no longer confident, then it's time to worry, but perhaps he can shed some light on what's going on in the state.

Have you been watching his Twitter vids?

[Tender Branson]

This election is getting on my nerves. I wish Biden could just clinch PA to get this nightmare over with.

Tomorrow night.

[DaleCooper]

Just a heads up, Bob Casey will be on CNN in an hour.

This is what I'm waiting for. I feel like if he's no longer confident, then it's time to worry, but perhaps he can shed some light on what's going on in the state.

Have you been watching his Twitter vids?

I did. Wasn't sure what to make of his call for "patience" after learning that there were fewer votes than thought.

[Hammy]

This election is getting on my nerves. I wish Biden could just clinch PA to get this nightmare over with.

Don't think Biden's getting PA

[BlueSwan]

Trump by math needs just 57% of the remaining Arizona vote doesn’t that seem very doable ?

That's what worries me as well.

[MillennialModerate]

This election is getting on my nerves. I wish Biden could just clinch PA to get this nightmare over with.

Don't think Biden's getting PA

Don’t say. You’ll be eaten alive like I did.

I’m in the minority but if I were betting I’d say Trump is likely to win this thing.

Biden falls short in Georgia by a hair
Biden falls short decently in NC
Biden lead slips away in AZ
Biden might hold on in NV but it’s not a sure thing
Bidens outstanding vote in PA has been GREATLY exaggerated

[Meclazine for Israel]

GA still on track for Biden.

WI - Biden WINS by > 20,000 (98% counted)

MI - Biden WINS by > 100,000 (98% counted)

AZ - Biden up by 68,390 (86% counted)

Of the remaining ~474,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 202,800 of them - (42.8%)

NV - Biden up by 7,647 (86% counted)

Of the remaining ~194,200 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 93,300 of them - (48.0%)

GA - Biden down by 18,540 (96% counted)

Of the remaining ~204,500 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 111,500 of them - (54.5%)

PA - Biden down by 164,414 (89% counted)

Of the remaining ~784,672 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 474,600 of them - (60.5%)

AK - Biden down by 51,400 (56% counted)

Of the remaining ~135,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 93,200 of them - (69.0%)

This plot shows how Biden wins each state by just plotting the drop in % needed to win. Obviously, when Biden falls below 50%, he is in the lead and on the way to 100% vote counted.



Based on the current trajectory, Biden should hit the front in GA before the end of vote counting provided there are 200,000 votes left to count.

[Rand]

And the doomers emerge...

[DaleCooper]

GA still on track for Biden.

WI - Biden WINS by > 20,000 (98% counted)

MI - Biden WINS by > 100,000 (98% counted)

AZ - Biden up by 79,173 (86% counted)

Of the remaining ~464,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 192,300 of them - (41.5%)

NV - Biden up by 7,647 (86% counted)

Of the remaining ~194,200 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 93,300 of them - (48.0%)

GA - Biden down by 18,540 (96% counted)

Of the remaining ~204,500 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 111,500 of them - (54.5%)

PA - Biden down by 164,414 (89% counted)

Of the remaining ~784,672 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 474,600 of them - (60.5%)

AK - Biden down by 51,400 (56% counted)

Of the remaining ~135,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 93,200 of them - (69.0%)

This plot shows how Biden wins each state by just plotting the drop in % needed to win. Obviously, when Biden falls below 50%, he is in the lead and on the way to 100% vote counted.



Based on the current trajectory, Biden should hit the front in GA before the end of vote counting provided there are 200,000 votes left to count.

May I ask where you're getting these numbers for the remaining votes?