2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[DrScholl]

I think this may be the last time that the Democratic path to victory runs through MI/WI/PA.

From 2024, I expect it to run through NV/AZ/GA/NC

I think Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are seeing a shift in coalitions that Democrats can build on and still win them moving forward. They are realigning in a way that would put them in the a similar category as Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Nevada.

[Non Swing Voter]

So what are the differences that accounted for Republicans winning Ohio in a blowout and losing Wisconsin and Michigan?

Ohio shifted left as well. Trump had a 9 point cushion there.  He had no room for loss in MI/WI.

[OSR stands with Israel]

ngl I like the Biden-306 map with Georgia surrounded by a sea of Republican states. A much better look than the last time that happened in 1980!

Yeah, this will genuinely be the (IMO) most aesthetic map since Lincoln

[Horus]

ngl I like the Biden-306 map with Georgia surrounded by a sea of Republican states. A much better look than the last time that happened in 1980!

Yeah, this will genuinely be the (IMO) most aesthetic map since Lincoln

Nah. I think blue GA without blue FL looks weird.

The most bothersome maps to me were those with blue GA, blue FL and red NC.

[riceowl]

I must say I'm very proud of the duct tape holding this forum's server together

I know I'm quoting myself but I really am just so thrilled for this little old forum that I've frequented for 16 years staying alive all night.

[ultraviolet]

I think this may be the last time that the Democratic path to victory runs through MI/WI/PA.

From 2024, I expect it to run through NV/AZ/GA/NC

I think Pennsylvania will remain competitive for some time due to Philly and its huge suburbs.

And as much as I want Michigan to remain blue, I think it will be a tougher hold. Some good news though, Detroit's CSA makes up over half the state, so maybe suburbs can keep it in play.

As for Wisconsin, I am least optimistic about this state. There is no huge city to anchor it, so a lot of democrats' support has come from the driftless area. I don't see that continuing for much longer. Maybe WOW can balance it out, but we'll see

[TopShelfGoal]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324152903364304896
Biden +4.3 is not good to be clear, but it does indicate that states like Arizona and Georgia (and even North Carolina) are moving left faster than the nation at large. This would be good news for the 2024 nominee.

(Nevada + Arizona + Georgia + North Carolina + Minnesota = 275)*
*census will change totals slightly

That actually makes me feel a lot more positive about last night if the nation as a whole was only D+4.3

That makes:

NC: R+5.6(identical to 2016)
GA: R+4 (?)
AZ: R+2-4
MI: R+1.8 or lower
MN: D+3
WI: R+3.7 (this one has been worse than 2016)
CO: D+9-10(!!!!!)
VA: D+6-8

PA/NV TBD.

My worry was that it was like a D+7-8 national vote which would have meant all these swing states shifted even further right from 2016 and EC gap was even larger. A +4.3 national number makes the statewide numbers much more palatable for future.

If that national number is correct than PA/MI might even have moved slightly left this election cycle relative to the nation.

[2952-0-0]

Rupert must be calling Fox News asking them to be the first network to push Biden above 270, twisting the dagger.

[ProgressiveModerate]

So what are the differences that accounted for Republicans winning Ohio in a blowout and losing Wisconsin and Michigan?

Well first off there was far more campaigning in MI, WI and PA.

Also; even just a small shift in OH is disasters for Trump in the northern Midwest; he barely won these states in 2016. According to the NYT trend map, SE OH looked like it took another hard trend to the right

[Ferguson97]

ngl I like the Biden-306 map with Georgia surrounded by a sea of Republican states. A much better look than the last time that happened in 1980!

Yeah, this will genuinely be the (IMO) most aesthetic map since Lincoln

This was Bush 04 right?

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Trump's margin is down to 200,000.

PA is getting there.
Has anyone worked the numbers recently with the new data.
If we continue to see the same rate of closing-the-gap (assume), where will PA be?

I did it a little while ago with some estimates that seemed reasonable to me and my math was that Biden wins the state by 125,000 votes when all votes are counted.

Wow. Really?
By that much?

The outstanding vote is very D.

[Sadader]

ngl I like the Biden-306 map with Georgia surrounded by a sea of Republican states. A much better look than the last time that happened in 1980!

Yeah, this will genuinely be the (IMO) most aesthetic map since Lincoln

Nah. I think blue GA without blue FL looks weird.

It looks so much better alone

[OSR stands with Israel]

ngl I like the Biden-306 map with Georgia surrounded by a sea of Republican states. A much better look than the last time that happened in 1980!

Yeah, this will genuinely be the (IMO) most aesthetic map since Lincoln

This was Bush 04 right?

Yup

[NYSforKennedy2024]

NYT Blog: Pelosi has declared victory in a letter to House Dems, and the Biden campaign has purchased a Transition Team website: BuildBackBetter.com

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

So what are the differences that accounted for Republicans winning Ohio in a blowout and losing Wisconsin and Michigan?

The margin difference between MI/WI and OH is roughly the same as it was in 2016.

[politics_king]

CNN saying that Trump's team is anxious about GA right now, and that "they did not see this coming".

Dread it. Run from it. Destiny arrives all the same.

[Bootes Void]

Georgia is 38k lead according to politico

[Coolface Sock #42069]

So what are the differences that accounted for Republicans winning Ohio in a blowout and losing Wisconsin and Michigan?

Well first off there was far more campaigning in MI, WI and PA.

Also; even just a small shift in OH is disasters for Trump in the northern Midwest; he barely won these states in 2016. According to the NYT trend map, SE OH looked like it took another hard trend to the right

But aren’t those three states pretty demographically similar?

[ProudModerate2]

A CNN Update about 8 minutes ago ...

There are more than 149,000 uncounted ballots in Georgia, state official says.
From CNN's Marshall Cohen

Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said Wednesday afternoon that there are still 149,350 uncounted ballots in the state.

Some of the counties with outstanding votes told CNN that they will finish counting tonight, while others are expected to stretch into tomorrow.

According to Raffensperger’s office, Georgia has tallied about 36,000 votes in the last two hours.

The margin between Trump and Biden has now narrowed to 1% with the latest batch, with Trump clinging to a small lead.

“Officials in numerous counties are continuing to count ballots, with strong security protocols in place to protect the integrity of our election” Raffensperger said in news release. “We have long anticipated – and said publicly – that counting would most likely take place into Wednesday night and perhaps Thursday morning. We’re on pace to accomplish that responsibly, ensuring that the voice of every eligible voter is heard. It’s important to act quickly, but it’s more important to get it right.”

[DrScholl]

So what are the differences that accounted for Republicans winning Ohio in a blowout and losing Wisconsin and Michigan?

Ohio has fewer educated suburban areas and more working class areas that are rapidly declining economically. Plus it's rural areas are quite a bit like Indiana's in terms of Republican numbers.

[Bootes Void]

A CNN Update about 8 minutes ago ...

There are more than 149,000 uncounted ballots in Georgia, state official says.
From CNN's Marshall Cohen

Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said Wednesday afternoon that there are still 149,350 uncounted ballots in the state.

Some of the counties with outstanding votes told CNN that they will finish counting tonight, while others are expected to stretch into tomorrow.

According to Raffensperger’s office, Georgia has tallied about 36,000 votes in the last two hours.

The margin between Trump and Biden has now narrowed to 1% with the latest batch, with Trump clinging to a small lead.

“Officials in numerous counties are continuing to count ballots, with strong security protocols in place to protect the integrity of our election” Raffensperger said in news release. “We have long anticipated – and said publicly – that counting would most likely take place into Wednesday night and perhaps Thursday morning. We’re on pace to accomplish that responsibly, ensuring that the voice of every eligible voter is heard. It’s important to act quickly, but it’s more important to get it right.”

if this is true, then Bidens wins easily

[ProgressiveModerate]

So what are the differences that accounted for Republicans winning Ohio in a blowout and losing Wisconsin and Michigan?

Well first off there was far more campaigning in MI, WI and PA.

Also; even just a small shift in OH is disasters for Trump in the northern Midwest; he barely won these states in 2016. According to the NYT trend map, SE OH looked like it took another hard trend to the right

But aren’t those three states pretty demographically similar?

They are, they are all manufacturing blue collar states, but SE OH is very different than northern WI.

[Inmate Trump]

I must say I'm very proud of the duct tape holding this forum's server together

I know I'm quoting myself but I really am just so thrilled for this little old forum that I've frequented for 16 years staying alive all night.

It really is unpresidented ( )

Every major election night this site has shut down until now.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

ngl I like the Biden-306 map with Georgia surrounded by a sea of Republican states. A much better look than the last time that happened in 1980!

Yeah, this will genuinely be the (IMO) most aesthetic map since Lincoln

This was Bush 04 right?

Good old United States of Canada and Jesusland.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Rupert must be calling Fox News asking them to be the first network to push Biden above 270, twisting the dagger.

Rupert is smart. Fox will make a lot of good PR of it.