2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[ProgressiveModerate]

Biden down to 72c on PredictIt from 80+ earlier today.  Based on what?  We haven't heard anything at all from Arizona and the only development has been Fox News fending off Trumpworld assaults on their call.

Biden's probability of winning has gone up according to the numbers, it's just that because nowhere has been called for a while it increases uncertainty. A lot of it is mental. A lot of people got happy when MI and WI were called for Biden, but that happiness will wane to fear by default, even if there no bad news.

[European Lefty]

So, with Trump's gains among Latinos and Asians, along with a tiny dent among Black men...if the GOP wants to be viable going forward, they need to take a page out of the Ford Nation playbook.

I know that we were warned about it, and may have wrongly dismissed it, but I am still so baffled that this happened.

Part of me wonders if black voters breaking heavily for Biden in the primary only for certain people to loudly disparage those who voted for him as supporting a racist, voting against their own interests etc. might have had some effect

[Inmate Trump]

Folks can probably stop panicking about AZ and NV since GA is looking all but gone for Trump at this point with where the outstanding ballots are coming from.

I really hope you're right about GA.

I'm not quite ready to come out of my dooming tbh, so I'm going to still tell everyone to calm down because this thing ain't ovah.

[CityByTheValley]

Does no one find it funny that we may end up with Michigan-Pennsylvania-Wisconsin in terms of margin after all the "Safe Wisconsin, Tossup PA" takes? Looks like the pre-COVID conventional wisdom will end up being true and the past year has been absolutely useless in terms of election takes.

[LabourJersey]

Sorry for bringing this up again, but f**k Robert M. La Follette

La Follette was far and away the best candidate that year.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Sorry for bringing this up again, but f**k Robert M. La Follette

I think it looks cute.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Does no one find it funny that we may end up with Michigan-Pennsylvania-Wisconsin in terms of margin after all the "Safe Wisconsin, Tossup PA" takes? Looks like the pre-COVID conventional wisdom will end up being true and the past year has been absolutely useless in terms of election takes.

I do. I used to believe that the 289 or 290 map was the best Biden would, or any other Democrat, would be able to do; and that has in fact been the case. Though Georgia may alter that.

[Kuumo]

Sorry for bringing this up again, but f**k Robert M. La Follette

La Follette was far and away the best candidate that year.

This. He is probably my favorite third party candidate ever.

[GAKas]

Folks can probably stop panicking about AZ and NV since GA is looking all but gone for Trump at this point with where the outstanding ballots are coming from.

I really hope you're right about GA.

I'm not quite ready to come out of my dooming tbh, so I'm going to still tell everyone to calm down because this thing ain't ovah.

Same. GA has let us down before. Atlanta's on a choking trend this year with the Braves and Falcons so I'm translating that into politics too because Atlanta lmao

[Inmate Trump]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1324164360017686528

This is concerning.

[ultraviolet]

Whoops. Looks like I offended some people with my La Follette comment. I shall go read up on him now. Apologies

[gf20202]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1324164360017686528

This is concerning.

How is it concerning that Trump isn't performing high enough in new vote totals?

[Non Swing Voter]

Folks can probably stop panicking about AZ and NV since GA is looking all but gone for Trump at this point with where the outstanding ballots are coming from.

do you know how many are outstanding?

[Crucial Waukesha]

Whoops. Looks like I offended some people with my La Follette comment. I shall go read up on him now. Apologies

La Follette was a true FF

[Panda Express]

Democrats just didn't do well on their own--which is why the Senate races were underwhelming and House seats were lost.  

My working theory is that Trump brought a bunch of people out of the woodwork into his coalition. These people were historically not very political and don't vote often (if ever) and tend to be low-info but were swept up in "Trumpmania" over the last few years. I suspect these people would be 1) possibly screened out in a "likely voter" model and 2)would vote straight R up and down the ticket because TRUMP

[Angasboy15]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1324164360017686528

This is concerning.

I read it as basically quashing the hopes of a Trump win in AZ?

[Horsemask]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1324164360017686528

This is concerning.

Care to clarify? I'm not following.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

So, with Trump's gains among Latinos and Asians, along with a tiny dent among Black men...if the GOP wants to be viable going forward, they need to take a page out of the Ford Nation playbook.

I know that we were warned about it, and may have wrongly dismissed it, but I am still so baffled that this happened.

I f[inks]ing warned you all (and I'd like to think New American Voices prevented further hemorrhaging of AAPIs to the MAGA death cult; the 18-29 Asian cohort was supposedly 83-13 Biden). But I wouldn't be surprised if pearl-clutching Chinese, Vietnamese, Korean, Filipino, and South Asian immigrants were responsible for slowing the TX suburbs' leftward trend, and/or delivering NC to 45 and Tillis.

[Non Swing Voter]

Democrats just didn't do well on their own--which is why the Senate races were underwhelming and House seats were lost.  

My working theory is that Trump brought a bunch of people out of the woodwork into his coalition. These people were historically not very political and don't vote often (if ever) and tend to be low-info but were swept up in "Trumpmania" over the last few years. I suspect these people would be 1) possibly screened out in a "likely voter" model and 2)would vote straight R up and down the ticket because TRUMP

I agree with this analysis and it also tells me that the GOP could get destroyed in 2022 when it faces an educated electorate and a lot fewer Trump fanatics.

[Spamage]

Democrats just didn't do well on their own--which is why the Senate races were underwhelming and House seats were lost.  

My working theory is that Trump brought a bunch of people out of the woodwork into his coalition. These people were historically not very political and don't vote often (if ever) and tend to be low-info but were swept up in "Trumpmania" over the last few years. I suspect these people would be 1) possibly screened out in a "likely voter" model and 2)would vote straight R up and down the ticket because TRUMP

Anecdotally I'd tend to agree with this. I have a few 50-year-old coworkers who have never voted in their life and all of a sudden in the past 6 months suddenly became huge Trump fans.

[ultraviolet]

Democrats just didn't do well on their own--which is why the Senate races were underwhelming and House seats were lost.  

My working theory is that Trump brought a bunch of people out of the woodwork into his coalition. These people were historically not very political and don't vote often (if ever) and tend to be low-info but were swept up in "Trumpmania" over the last few years. I suspect these people would be 1) possibly screened out in a "likely voter" model and 2)would vote straight R up and down the ticket because TRUMP

Very possible. Based off 2018, it seems like Trump has helped downballot significantly

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

So, with Trump's gains among Latinos and Asians, along with a tiny dent among Black men...if the GOP wants to be viable going forward, they need to take a page out of the Ford Nation playbook.

I know that we were warned about it, and may have wrongly dismissed it, but I am still so baffled that this happened.

What is unknown is if they were just fans of Trump and not the GOP.

True, I do think that a more conventional Republican would go back to doing as bad as Romney did. I just can't wrap my head around how people of color can make excuses for someone so bigoted. I get it when white people do it, but maybe it's some sort of reverse-intersectionality where different minority groups like that Trump disparages certain others? Is it strictly stuff like taxes? I know that the "Socialism!" fear apparently has resonated more than usual with some.

We're going to have a lot of horrible Atlas memes about Machismo Hispanic Trumpbros for the next few years.

I do hope that in the wider media, the swings in this election put an end to the cringeworthy white guilt virtue signalling often pushed by with no hint of irony by those who actually argue against substantive reforms to structural injustices.

[European Lefty]

Democrats just didn't do well on their own--which is why the Senate races were underwhelming and House seats were lost.  

My working theory is that Trump brought a bunch of people out of the woodwork into his coalition. These people were historically not very political and don't vote often (if ever) and tend to be low-info but were swept up in "Trumpmania" over the last few years. I suspect these people would be 1) possibly screened out in a "likely voter" model and 2)would vote straight R up and down the ticket because TRUMP

Did the "socialism" hype hurt senate Democrats more than Biden? I imagine people would be more inclined to associate the party as a whole than a single moderate with "evil socialism". At which point, people vote Biden because they like him/to remove Trump but vote R in the senate race to avoid AOC/Bernie/unnamed communists from taking control behind the scenes

[Malarkey Decider]

Sorry for bringing this up again, but f**k Robert M. La Follette

He was the only good candidate that election!

[pantsaregood]

Is PA done? Everything I'm seeing says Biden is winning the absentee ballots by 80/20 or more. That would seem to imply it is over to me.