2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Torie]

The cannibalization theory appears to be alive and well in very heavily Democratic Hudson, NY. On this morning's dog walk, over the course of about 8 minutes, not one voter opened the door to my precinct's (called voting district in NY for some inexplicable reason) polling station. My partner and I voted by mail, so no, I did not walk through the door either. I would of if I had had an epiphany, and decided to vote Trump, since that vote would have invalidated my absentee ballot. But there has been no such poltergeist-like event so far, but who knows. There are 11 more hours to go before the polls close.

[Torie]

If the Dem margin gets close to falling below 100K, that should supercharge the Pub lawsuits. They probably don't have much merit, but I was not retained as counsel to feel particularly competent to opine. So much spin out there. Maybe that is why I have these little bouts of vertigo.

[Torie]

I imagine the Trump campaign will continue to file lawsuits throughout the day, but I do not see any of them being successful because, as most know, you need evidence of fraud to be successful. Merely saying there is widespread fraud will not cut it.

The lawyer has spoken. Actually it is more about process than fraud I suspect. Not checking signatures  to see if they match for example is a process problem.

[Torie]

https://twitter.com/VanityFair/status/1324097044013862914?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7C...
lmao

Even Fox News has limits and Trump has reached them.

Between this and McConnell's comments, seems pretty clear Trump has indeed been thrown under the bus by the GOP and their donor class now that he is no longer of use to them, as I suspected. They will not support him in his efforts to steal this election, and the Supreme Court sure as hell won't.

Then Trump, Giuliani, all of their careers will be over.

McConnell is probably the happiest man in America right now.

[Torie]

Trump beat Clinton here by about 5 points.

[Torie]

Poor Fox News.

[Torie]

So it looks like only Aransas, Hawaii and Utah will have swung towards Trump. Every other state had a Dem swing from 2016.

Florida?

New York oddly looks like it might swing to Trump, unless the outstanding stuff is mostly Dems.

It is. Here in NY, they don't even start counting the mail-in/absentee votes until tomorrow. We won't know the full results until a week or too. However, it's heavily from Democratic voters.

In my county, the Dem party sent out absentee ballot request forms to every registered Democrat. So I voted by absentee ballot about 3 weeks ago (it was weird for me to vote straight Dem for the first time in my life, but whatever). They made it seem that the forms came from the board of elections, which caused a contretemps. In any event, the absentee ballot vote is about 80% from registered Dems, about twice the Dem percentage of registered voters in my county. The percentage of the vote in the county that is absentee is about 13% or so.

So unlike in prior years, where you did not have a right to vote absentee without claiming you were bed ridden or going to be out of town, and the absentee vote largely replicated the election day vote), and now do, the absentee vote in NY will be very heavily Dem.

[Torie]

Biden should be up by around 4000 votes after the next dump of Gwinnett County votes this morning.

3,500 are out in Gwinnett. Biden is ahead there by 17.9%. Biden's existing lead is 1,579.

(3,500 x.179) + 1,579 = 627 + 1,579 = 2,206. Then the military ballots and some provisionals and what not.

If Biden wins GA it will be the tipping point state. If not, and Biden holds AZ, AZ will be the tipping point state. If not, then it will be Wisconsin probably, although it could be PA. It will not be NV almost certainly.

[Torie]

Are we still expecting more Nevada returns very soon?

Biden's lead doubled from a lead of 10K to 20K.

[Torie]

Jennifer Medina: Mike Noble, a Phoenix-based pollster, told me: “That’s a wrap for the presidential contest in AZ. Trump needed almost 60% on this ballot drop, he got very low 50s. #Ballgame.”

That is true unless each vote dump is substantially different. Why was this vote dump substantially more Dem than the last one? I don't know.

[Torie]

Jennifer Medina: Mike Noble, a Phoenix-based pollster, told me: “That’s a wrap for the presidential contest in AZ. Trump needed almost 60% on this ballot drop, he got very low 50s. #Ballgame.”

That is true unless each vote dump is substantially different. Why was this vote dump substantially more Dem than the last one? I don't know.

It came from AZ-06. Which is Maricopa's purplest district. The rest should be even bluer.

The dumps are by congressional district? Where did you get that info?

[Torie]

https://twitter.com/MrWalterShapiro/status/1324862257524846594

Media collusion! What bad (or sick) people.

What a cynical comment by Shapiro. But I agree with it.

[Torie]

We don't know how many late votes there are in PA that are the subject of a Pub lawsuit that has some merit however, and the Philly elections official stonewalled when asked about that. Yes, the odds are very high that the number is insufficient, thereby mooting that case. But it would be nice to know the number of such ballots that were counted. And now Fox News calls PA, the same outfit that called AZ. Ha!

[Torie]

We don't know how many late votes there are in PA that are the subject of a Pub lawsuit that has some merit however, and the Philly elections official stonewalled when asked about that. Yes, the odds are very high that the number is insufficient, thereby mooting that case. But it would be nice to know the number of such ballots that were counted. And now Fox News calls PA, the same outfit that called AZ. Ha!

The late votes have been segregated and are not in the current count. Even if they were all thrown out Biden still wins.

Are you sure? Are we even sure that they were segregated? Alito ordered that just this morning.

[Torie]

This list was posted earlier, but I'm just reposting below for my own reference and everyone else's reference with the current numbers.

Here's the current breakdown of margins in swing states (decided by less than 10%) from most Republican to most Democratic:

Iowa Trump +8.20
Ohio Trump +8.16
ME-2* Trump+6.6
Texas Trump +5.77
Florida Trump +3.37
North Carolina Trump +1.38
Georgia Biden +0.20
Arizona Biden +0.57
Pennsylvania Biden +0.60
Wisconsin Biden +0.62
Nevada Biden +2.13
Michigan Biden +2.64
NE-2* Biden +6.6
Minnesota Biden +7.10
New Hampshire Biden +7.11
Virginia Biden +9.72

*Congressional districts I only have numbers down to 1/10th of a percent.

Wisconsin will be the tipping point state since Biden has some margin to go in PA unless all the late votes are tossed out by SCOTUS which won't happen because PA won't matter as to how it goes  (and the late votes are very unlikely to be enough to change the result anyway in PA, assuming they were counted and in the current totals), so that case is moot. So what happens if Wisconsin, Georgia and Arizona (which might actually go to Trump anyway), had all gone to Trump? You do the math.

[Torie]

That is end of that in PA from a legal standpoint.