COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[compucomp]

The CDC did double down on its masking recommendations yesterday, urging people to wear the "mask or respirator" that is "most protective" for them. So, they're not explicitly endorsing N95 masks, but they certainly are indicating support for them. This reinforces my conviction that the CDC will continue to recommend mask wearing in public long past the end of the pandemic.

The CDC is well within their authority to issue guidance which is exactly what they're doing--they're issuing health guidance. They issue the same guidance with the flu. The problem here isn't with the CDC, it's with the elected officials who are trying to impose this guidance into law.

That is indeed the problem. The point has been made that very few people actually followed or cared about CDC recommendations prior to the pandemic, but since the pandemic, their recommendations-particularly on masking-have been converted into law in many jurisdictions.

But again, that should not reflect negatively on the CDC. If elected officials started forcing people to evacuate for hurricanes for example, the solution would not be to eliminate the warning system.

The CDC's main problem is that their messaging has not been good, particularly over the past several months. Yes, they are experts, and should be given deference, but their recommendations certainly don't seem to imply that the situation has improved. In many ways, we've regressed.

That's certainly true, and unfortunately symptomatic of this entire administration.

To further expand upon my points, I've been harshly critical of the conspiracy theories which have been bandied about concerning Dr. Fauci, and I certainly think that the CDC is an important government agency worth preserving. But I'm not going to blindly and uncritically accept their recommendations, as I think doing so would be almost as reckless as believing the nonsense of anti-vaxxers and conspiracy theorists.

It's funny that I agree that CDC recommendations cannot be uncritically accepted, except we are on opposite sides on COVID containment and object to different parts of their guidance. I think what this says is that the CDC has deviated from science to try to manipulate public opinion and be the "moderates" on the issue, but they have done a very poor job of it, resulting in confusing and shifting guidance that angers people on both sides. They have a lot of work to do to restore their former reputation as a scientific agency.

[Hammy]

The CDC did double down on its masking recommendations yesterday, urging people to wear the "mask or respirator" that is "most protective" for them. So, they're not explicitly endorsing N95 masks, but they certainly are indicating support for them. This reinforces my conviction that the CDC will continue to recommend mask wearing in public long past the end of the pandemic.

The CDC is well within their authority to issue guidance which is exactly what they're doing--they're issuing health guidance. They issue the same guidance with the flu. The problem here isn't with the CDC, it's with the elected officials who are trying to impose this guidance into law.

That is indeed the problem. The point has been made that very few people actually followed or cared about CDC recommendations prior to the pandemic, but since the pandemic, their recommendations-particularly on masking-have been converted into law in many jurisdictions.

But again, that should not reflect negatively on the CDC. If elected officials started forcing people to evacuate for hurricanes for example, the solution would not be to eliminate the warning system.

The CDC's main problem is that their messaging has not been good, particularly over the past several months. Yes, they are experts, and should be given deference, but their recommendations certainly don't seem to imply that the situation has improved. In many ways, we've regressed.

That's certainly true, and unfortunately symptomatic of this entire administration.

To further expand upon my points, I've been harshly critical of the conspiracy theories which have been bandied about concerning Dr. Fauci, and I certainly think that the CDC is an important government agency worth preserving. But I'm not going to blindly and uncritically accept their recommendations, as I think doing so would be almost as reckless as believing the nonsense of anti-vaxxers and conspiracy theorists.

For me, the recommendations make sense--it's the CDC's job to issue recommendations on how to avoid diseases, same as the weather service with warnings to avoid severe weather--these are recommendations based on the science they are involved in.

I'll compare this to a hurricane evacuation--it's up to the agency to present all the information in a clear and concise manner (granted, something his administration has failed to do so far) and issue a recommendation on it, but it's also up to the individual to take that information, assess the individual risk, and come to their own personal decision.

If one does not feel the risk is high--be it vaccinated with masks, or inland residents of concrete housing in an evacuation--they should have the right to carry out whatever decision they've come to.

Again, outside of the messaging, this is where the elected officials deserve the bulk of the criticism--you can't forcibly evacuate people because some in a high risk environment decided to stay, and likewise they shouldn't be requiring everyone to wear masks because some people have decided not to get vaccinated.

[Hollywood]

The CDC did double down on its masking recommendations yesterday, urging people to wear the "mask or respirator" that is "most protective" for them. So, they're not explicitly endorsing N95 masks, but they certainly are indicating support for them. This reinforces my conviction that the CDC will continue to recommend mask wearing in public long past the end of the pandemic.

The CDC is well within their authority to issue guidance which is exactly what they're doing--they're issuing health guidance. They issue the same guidance with the flu. The problem here isn't with the CDC, it's with the elected officials who are trying to impose this guidance into law.

That is indeed the problem. The point has been made that very few people actually followed or cared about CDC recommendations prior to the pandemic, but since the pandemic, their recommendations-particularly on masking-have been converted into law in many jurisdictions.

But again, that should not reflect negatively on the CDC. If elected officials started forcing people to evacuate for hurricanes for example, the solution would not be to eliminate the warning system.

The CDC's main problem is that their messaging has not been good, particularly over the past several months. Yes, they are experts, and should be given deference, but their recommendations certainly don't seem to imply that the situation has improved. In many ways, we've regressed.

That's certainly true, and unfortunately symptomatic of this entire administration.

To further expand upon my points, I've been harshly critical of the conspiracy theories which have been bandied about concerning Dr. Fauci, and I certainly think that the CDC is an important government agency worth preserving. But I'm not going to blindly and uncritically accept their recommendations, as I think doing so would be almost as reckless as believing the nonsense of anti-vaxxers and conspiracy theorists.

For me, the recommendations make sense--it's the CDC's job to issue recommendations on how to avoid diseases, same as the weather service with warnings to avoid severe weather--these are recommendations based on the science they are involved in.

I'll compare this to a hurricane evacuation--it's up to the agency to present all the information in a clear and concise manner (granted, something his administration has failed to do so far) and issue a recommendation on it, but it's also up to the individual to take that information, assess the individual risk, and come to their own personal decision.

If one does not feel the risk is high--be it vaccinated with masks, or inland residents of concrete housing in an evacuation--they should have the right to carry out whatever decision they've come to.

Again, outside of the messaging, this is where the elected officials deserve the bulk of the criticism--you can't forcibly evacuate people because some in a high risk environment decided to stay, and likewise they shouldn't be requiring everyone to wear masks because some people have decided not to get vaccinated.

70% of people in this CNBC Poll say the message has been confusing.  That's only a shock to people who haven't been reading the science from other countries.  https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-inflation-first-year-opinion-poll/

For example, the Administration and CDC disseminated false information positing that the vaccinated could not spread Covid-19, but the unvaccinated could spread it.  I knew this was false as soon as it was uttered by officials cause of my medical experience.  Many many many instances have been recorded of vaccinated, asymptomatic persons infecting unvaccinated persons who are either contraindicated or medically unable to receive a vaccination.  While the vaccine reduces severity of a virus and asymptomatics that promote spread, vaccinated person usually spread a virus without knowing they have it. Even vaccinated people can spread it to vaccinated people that will suffer greater impacts due to a night of drinking inhibiting their immune response.   

What makes this more confusing is that the government changed their opinion on this issue after a new Indian Study was published in an online medical journal despite the fact that there was already statistics from the UK and Israel definitively demonstrating the spread from vaccinated to unvaccinated and vice versa.  Not to mention decades of research dealing with other seasonal viruses that behave in a similar manner.  The government was straight-up lying about it to put certain restrictions on the unvaccinated that burdened them more than people who were vaccinated.  It was just a pressure campaign like the vaccine mandates.  In order to encourage more people to get vaxxed, they lied to them.  Fauci lied about masks so people wouldn't horde supplies needed for hospitals.  You can see how this would be confusing to people?

However, lying about spread from vaccinated to vaccinate and unvaccinated was actually tricking people about the risks they faced when interacting with others.  I didn't believe the CDC, so I wore mask for two years. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/MorningConsult/status/1483092748425220096

If you wonder why the U.S. can't seem to move on from the pandemic, look no further than the above chart.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/MorningConsult/status/1483092748425220096

If you wonder why the U.S. can't seem to move on from the pandemic, look no further than the above chart.

But none of those other countries have moved on from the pandemic, either. The "Russian roulette" of restrictions and surges has also been seen in all of those countries over the past several months.

[Calthrina950]

I had an argument with my stepmother earlier this morning about the pandemic. I expressed my sentiment that perhaps my father might have been right about the vaccine. She looked at me, and I quickly clarified what I said by saying that he was right from the perspective of the vaccine not being entirely effective. What I meant is that the vaccine does reduce the severity and symptoms of the virus for those who contract it, but that it doesn't stop transmission, and that those who said last summer that you wouldn't get the virus if you got vaccinated were wrong. She asserted that the vaccine is effective, and hoped I wasn't implying otherwise.

I then pointed out that even when the Omicron variant subsides, other variants will emerge and those in power will maintain the restrictions. She then said that, given the other issues we're facing, she couldn't continue to worry about coronavirus, and said that she would continue to "protect herself" by double masking in public. She said she didn't care if I decided not to wear a mask, but then said that I should "stay away" from her. She said that I could catch the virus and pass it to her (which is true), and that she could die (even though we're both vaccinated and boosted). I got angry at this and shouted that "this is why the vaccine isn't effective!" At this, she closed her door and said she didn't want to talk to me any further if I was going to get angry.

It's just maddening to me that so many people have had their minds "screwed up" by this pandemic and the response to it. The vaccine should have meant a return to normalcy and an end to restrictions. But that has not happened, and people are now accepting "masking" and other such strictures as being part of a new normal. I've noticed at my job that about half of the public is back to wearing masks, and I saw two people yesterday who were double masked. And given that so many vaccinated and boosted people have contracted the virus, the efficacy of vaccine mandates has also come into question.

The situation is frustrating, and I don't see us getting out of it this year.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

It's just maddening to me that so many people have had their minds "screwed up" by this pandemic and the response to it.

A lot of this was caused by TV.

[Calthrina950]

It's just maddening to me that so many people have had their minds "screwed up" by this pandemic and the response to it.

A lot of this was caused by TV.

True. My stepmother loves to watch TV, particularly programs such as The View, the CBS Evening News with Norah O'Donnell, and ABC World News Tonight with David Muir. And these programs (the Evening News programs in particular), tend to highlight the most depressing and heartbreaking aspects of the pandemic, with regards to severe outlier cases of COVID, hospitalizations, and of course deaths. They bring on Dr. Fauci, Dr. Walensky, Dr. Murthy, and other public health experts frequently. It's not wrong to consult them, but these individuals certainly aren't the best messengers and haven't been the most consistent.

[Green Line]

https://twitter.com/MorningConsult/status/1483092748425220096

If you wonder why the U.S. can't seem to move on from the pandemic, look no further than the above chart.

No clue why people would bother looking at polling when it comes to vaccination rates, when there is actual solid data available.

A quick google search shows that 71% of the UK population is fully vaccinated, compared to 63% of the US pop, according to the CDC.  A gap, but nowhere near as large as useless polls would indicate.  Not going to bother looking up every country, but presumably its the same.  Now thats what I would call - misinformation!

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/MorningConsult/status/1483092748425220096

If you wonder why the U.S. can't seem to move on from the pandemic, look no further than the above chart.

No clue why people would bother looking at polling when it comes to vaccination rates, when there is actual solid data available.

A quick google search shows that 71% of the UK population is fully vaccinated, compared to 63% of the US pop, according to the CDC.  A gap, but nowhere near as large as useless polls would indicate.  Not going to bother looking up every country, but presumably its the same.  Now thats what I would call - misinformation!

Particularly since many people lie about their vaccination status, and the poll doesn't provide a breakdown (at least in this chart), of those who are only partially vaccinated and those who are boosted.

[Green Line]

https://twitter.com/MorningConsult/status/1483092748425220096

If you wonder why the U.S. can't seem to move on from the pandemic, look no further than the above chart.

No clue why people would bother looking at polling when it comes to vaccination rates, when there is actual solid data available.

A quick google search shows that 71% of the UK population is fully vaccinated, compared to 63% of the US pop, according to the CDC.  A gap, but nowhere near as large as useless polls would indicate.  Not going to bother looking up every country, but presumably its the same.  Now thats what I would call - misinformation!

Particularly since many people lie about their vaccination status, and the poll doesn't provide a breakdown (at least in this chart), of those who are only partially vaccinated and those who are boosted.

The US actually has a slightly higher % of people with at least 1 dose (76%) vs Germany (75%).

[Green Line]

https://twitter.com/MorningConsult/status/1483092748425220096

If you wonder why the U.S. can't seem to move on from the pandemic, look no further than the above chart.

No clue why people would bother looking at polling when it comes to vaccination rates, when there is actual solid data available.

A quick google search shows that 71% of the UK population is fully vaccinated, compared to 63% of the US pop, according to the CDC.  A gap, but nowhere near as large as useless polls would indicate.  Not going to bother looking up every country, but presumably its the same.  Now thats what I would call - misinformation!

Okay, I said I wouldn't bother, but I couldn't help myself.

56% of Mexicans are fully vaccinated.  Significantly below the US.  Seriously, WTF is this tweet?

[Matty]

My 67 year old mother was exposed to an omicron-positive person over the weekend.

My mom was hesitant to get her 2nd shot, but finally got it on December 22nd.

Since it was only 3 weeks ago she got her second shot, shouldn’t she in theory be more likely to have an effective vaccine response if she ended up getting the virus compared to someone who got their 2nd shot months ago?

I’m a bit concerned, but I think the studies show that vaccines work better against amicron if infection happens closer to the time you got your shot.

She is not overweight and is in good health, by the way.

[emailking]

Probably, but I don't think we have the data on that, since it sounds like her 2 shots were a lot more than 30 days apart.

[Hammy]

snipped for space

While I think the restrictions are an overreach at this point, the vaccine was never going to move the country beyond the pandemic when you still have 30-50 million people who refuse to get vaccinated, which is driving the hospitalization rates.

My 67 year old mother was exposed to an omicron-positive person over the weekend.

My mom was hesitant to get her 2nd shot, but finally got it on December 22nd.

Since it was only 3 weeks ago she got her second shot, shouldn’t she in theory be more likely to have an effective vaccine response if she ended up getting the virus compared to someone who got their 2nd shot months ago?

I’m a bit concerned, but I think the studies show that vaccines work better against amicron if infection happens closer to the time you got your shot.

She is not overweight and is in good health, by the way.

Even if they were a month apart, it's still more protection than being unvaccinated, and if I recall, the main reason for the booster doses in the first place is because immunity wanes, and most people are 6-12 months past their second dose by now, if that's of any help.

[Frodo]

The top drugmakers are already planning on treating COVID like the seasonal flu, and dealing with it with an annual (and combined) shot:

Pfizer and Moderna expect seasonal booster shots after omicron wave
Seasonal COVID boosters may be combined with flu shots in the future, Moderna says.

Only the immuno-compromised need to take these shots every four to six months.  Everyone else can just take them annually from now on. 

[Calthrina950]

snipped for space

While I think the restrictions are an overreach at this point, the vaccine was never going to move the country beyond the pandemic when you still have 30-50 million people who refuse to get vaccinated, which is driving the hospitalization rates.

My 67 year old mother was exposed to an omicron-positive person over the weekend.

My mom was hesitant to get her 2nd shot, but finally got it on December 22nd.

Since it was only 3 weeks ago she got her second shot, shouldn’t she in theory be more likely to have an effective vaccine response if she ended up getting the virus compared to someone who got their 2nd shot months ago?

I’m a bit concerned, but I think the studies show that vaccines work better against amicron if infection happens closer to the time you got your shot.

She is not overweight and is in good health, by the way.

Even if they were a month apart, it's still more protection than being unvaccinated, and if I recall, the main reason for the booster doses in the first place is because immunity wanes, and most people are 6-12 months past their second dose by now, if that's of any help.

In a way, you're correct, although as I've noted, we've seen viral surges and restrictions in countries that have much higher vaccination rates than the United States. I recall reading about Singapore, which has one of the highest vaccination rates on the planet, and yet hasn't returned to a mode of normalcy. That's why I'm not convinced we're going to see the lifting of virtually all restrictions even if the vaccination rate increases further, and even if rates are high.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

snipped for space

While I think the restrictions are an overreach at this point, the vaccine was never going to move the country beyond the pandemic when you still have 30-50 million people who refuse to get vaccinated, which is driving the hospitalization rates.

My 67 year old mother was exposed to an omicron-positive person over the weekend.

My mom was hesitant to get her 2nd shot, but finally got it on December 22nd.

Since it was only 3 weeks ago she got her second shot, shouldn’t she in theory be more likely to have an effective vaccine response if she ended up getting the virus compared to someone who got their 2nd shot months ago?

I’m a bit concerned, but I think the studies show that vaccines work better against amicron if infection happens closer to the time you got your shot.

She is not overweight and is in good health, by the way.

Even if they were a month apart, it's still more protection than being unvaccinated, and if I recall, the main reason for the booster doses in the first place is because immunity wanes, and most people are 6-12 months past their second dose by now, if that's of any help.

In a way, you're correct, although as I've noted, we've seen viral surges and restrictions in countries that have much higher vaccination rates than the United States. I recall reading about Singapore, which has one of the highest vaccination rates on the planet, and yet hasn't returned to a mode of normalcy. That's why I'm not convinced we're going to see the lifting of virtually all restrictions even if the vaccination rate increases further, and even if rates are high.

Yeah we've had strip limits of 5 people social gatherings basicaly this entire pandemic and we're at around 95% vaccinated with 50% boostered.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Jail sued for giving inmates ivermectin: "They used us as an experiment"

According to the lawsuit, as well as CBS News' previous interview with one of the inmates and plaintiffs, 30-year-old Edrick Floreal-Wooten, the jail's medical staff told inmates the ivermectin pills were "vitamins," "antibiotics," and/or "steroids."

"The truth, however, was that without knowing and voluntary consent, Plaintiffs ingested incredibly high doses of a drug that credible medical professionals, the FDA, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, all agree is not an effective treatment against COVID-19," the lawsuit says. 

"Mr. Wooten, however, received 48 mg over a period of four days," the lawsuit says, "3.4 times the approved dosage."

Dayman Blackburn says he faced a similar situation. His medical records, according to the lawsuit, show that he received nearly 6.3 times the approved dosage of ivermectin based on his height and weight.

People who take "inappropriately high doses" of the medication, according to the CDC, "may experience toxic effects," including nausea, vomiting, hallucinations, seizures, coma and death. Floreal-Wooten told CBS News he suffered from diarrhea and upper abdominal pain in the weeks after he was given the medication.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/GlobalPHObserv/status/1482818647722795014

[Calthrina950]

snipped for space

While I think the restrictions are an overreach at this point, the vaccine was never going to move the country beyond the pandemic when you still have 30-50 million people who refuse to get vaccinated, which is driving the hospitalization rates.

My 67 year old mother was exposed to an omicron-positive person over the weekend.

My mom was hesitant to get her 2nd shot, but finally got it on December 22nd.

Since it was only 3 weeks ago she got her second shot, shouldn’t she in theory be more likely to have an effective vaccine response if she ended up getting the virus compared to someone who got their 2nd shot months ago?

I’m a bit concerned, but I think the studies show that vaccines work better against amicron if infection happens closer to the time you got your shot.

She is not overweight and is in good health, by the way.

Even if they were a month apart, it's still more protection than being unvaccinated, and if I recall, the main reason for the booster doses in the first place is because immunity wanes, and most people are 6-12 months past their second dose by now, if that's of any help.

In a way, you're correct, although as I've noted, we've seen viral surges and restrictions in countries that have much higher vaccination rates than the United States. I recall reading about Singapore, which has one of the highest vaccination rates on the planet, and yet hasn't returned to a mode of normalcy. That's why I'm not convinced we're going to see the lifting of virtually all restrictions even if the vaccination rate increases further, and even if rates are high.

Yeah we've had strip limits of 5 people social gatherings basicaly this entire pandemic and we're at around 95% vaccinated with 50% boostered.

And in Germany and France, they've had strict mask and vaccine mandates, along with vaccine passports, in force or coming into force. There is no logic for countries that have vaccination rates of 80-90% or more maintaining such restrictions.

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/GlobalPHObserv/status/1482818647722795014

Study predates Omicron and I feel that's an important bit of information to leave out.

[Pericles]

Do boosters limit the spread of Omicron like second doses did with Delta, or what kind of effect do they have? If they do limit the spread, then this would be a point in favor of measures that limit transmission-though it's now hard to argue that a full lockdown would be an overreaction to Omicron. Very few countries have high booster rates yet so the real world evidence isn't there yet, the UK is one of the highest in the world and their cases happen to be plummeting but this could also just be a fluke of timing.

A second question, why does the gap between first doses and second doses seem to be so large? Taking the data at face value, 13% of those 12 and over are just single dosed. I doubt that many people just forgot or didn't bother, and the vaccine rollout has been going for a long time now.

[Middle-aged Europe]

snipped for space

While I think the restrictions are an overreach at this point, the vaccine was never going to move the country beyond the pandemic when you still have 30-50 million people who refuse to get vaccinated, which is driving the hospitalization rates.

My 67 year old mother was exposed to an omicron-positive person over the weekend.

My mom was hesitant to get her 2nd shot, but finally got it on December 22nd.

Since it was only 3 weeks ago she got her second shot, shouldn’t she in theory be more likely to have an effective vaccine response if she ended up getting the virus compared to someone who got their 2nd shot months ago?

I’m a bit concerned, but I think the studies show that vaccines work better against amicron if infection happens closer to the time you got your shot.

She is not overweight and is in good health, by the way.

Even if they were a month apart, it's still more protection than being unvaccinated, and if I recall, the main reason for the booster doses in the first place is because immunity wanes, and most people are 6-12 months past their second dose by now, if that's of any help.

In a way, you're correct, although as I've noted, we've seen viral surges and restrictions in countries that have much higher vaccination rates than the United States. I recall reading about Singapore, which has one of the highest vaccination rates on the planet, and yet hasn't returned to a mode of normalcy. That's why I'm not convinced we're going to see the lifting of virtually all restrictions even if the vaccination rate increases further, and even if rates are high.

Yeah we've had strip limits of 5 people social gatherings basicaly this entire pandemic and we're at around 95% vaccinated with 50% boostered.

And in Germany and France, they've had strict mask and vaccine mandates, along with vaccine passports, in force or coming into force. There is no logic for countries that have vaccination rates of 80-90% or more maintaining such restrictions.

Germany's vaccination rate is 73% though.

[Former President tack50]

Ok, I think people might be confusing data so here it goes. Currently the ECDC sadly only offers numbers for "total population" and "Adults 18+" so here goes a relatively simple comparison of the US vs various EU countries on vaccines. I will do 2 dose only as well:

Adults 18+

USA: 74%
EU average: 80.5%

Countries comparable to the US in Europe include the Czech Republic (73.4%) and Latvia (74.6%).

Total population

USA: 63%
EU average: 69%

Again the US seems to be roughly on par with the Czech Republic and Latvia.

So basically the US are doing worse than EU countries, especially if you compare to Western Europe (compared to Eastern Europe however the US are doing amazing, so overall they end as "below average but not too bad). So to conclude the difference isn't that big.

Of course in practice the US are a big country with a massive amount of variation in vaccination. So the least vaccinated places in the US fall somewhere between Romania and Bulgaria levels of vaccination (34-49% for adults 18+) while the most vaccinated places are roughly on par with Western Europe or even slightly above it (somewhere in the very high 80s for adults) but fall just shy of the absolute best performers in Europe with vaccination rates of 90%+ (Portugal, Ireland)