COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

The original goal of the vaccines was to prevent hospitalization and severe illness.

They all do that.

But we got very lucky with Pfizer and Moderna that they largely stop even omicron infections but obviously not perfect. Look at me..

But selling vaccines as a way to stop infection was always dubious

but I am confident .. with the rate we developed these jabs, we will have credible vaccines that will stop infections entirely before 2024.

Media "Scientists" 2020: We're lucky if we'll get a 50% effective (against deaths) vaccines in next 10 year, stupid.
Media "Scientists" 2021: Only 90%? We're so f**cked. Stay home, stupid.

[DINGO Joe]

but I am confident .. with the rate we developed these jabs, we will have credible vaccines that will stop infections entirely before 2024.

No.  That's not how it works

[jamestroll]

but I am confident .. with the rate we developed these jabs, we will have credible vaccines that will stop infections entirely before 2024.

No.  That's not how it works

STOP moaning online.. and go out and get your booster now before omicron gets you.

[jamestroll]

damn it.

you all need to stop whining online and go out and get your boosters now.

[emailking]

but I am confident .. with the rate we developed these jabs, we will have credible vaccines that will stop infections entirely before 2024.

No.  That's not how it works

STOP moaning online.. and go out and get your booster now before omicron gets you.

Dingo is right that vaccines resulting in sterile immunity are pretty unlikely.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

So when are we going to move to using hospitalizations or deaths instead of cases as the main number to go by?

D.C. just issued a new state of emergency even though it has averaged 0 or 1 deaths per day since May.

The U.K. is starting to crack down again too even though it has pretty few deaths now.

[Hammy]

Mild symptoms? Pancreatic cancer first manifests itself with mild symptoms.

You seriously need a break from the forum and news if you're going to make this insane of a leap in logic.

[Inmate Trump]

Moderna says their booster increases antibody protection 37-fold.

Does that mean protection is just 37%?

Sorry, I’m an idiot who needs a dumbed down explanation.

It means that the average amount of antibodies found in someone who has had a booster is 37 times larger than in someone who has had just the first two shots.

So basically it’s not as powerful as the initial 2-dose shot was against the earlier strains but it’s still pretty good?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It does seem to me that the original vaccine dose was probably overly conservative just to make sure its safety was unquestionable (at least among actual scientists).

But have they actually tested a sufficient number of alternative doses?

E.g. what would happen if you gave someone 20x the original does?  It is possible that could be enough to completely ward off the possibility infection?  Is this even being tested?

[DabbingSanta]

damn it.

you all need to stop whining online and go out and get your boosters now.

Nope, I got the two shots to "return to normal" and we are still dealing with this crap.  Omicrap is a mild cold at best, why should I be worried?  Not giving big pharma or communists any more support.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

It does seem to me that the original vaccine dose was probably overly conservative just to make sure its safety was unquestionable (at least among actual scientists).

But have they actually tested a sufficient number of alternative doses?

E.g. what would happen if you gave someone 20x the original does?  It is possible that could be enough to completely ward off the possibility infection?  Is this even being tested?

Likely, the side effects would be much worse. Even Moderna that is probably just marginally better than Pfizer and has 3 times lagers dose has its problem vs Pfizer - 3 times higher risk of heart inflammation.

https://twitter.com/business/status/1471905563587997698

[Hammy]

damn it.

you all need to stop whining online and go out and get your boosters now.

Nope, I got the two shots to "return to normal" and we are still dealing with this crap.  Omicrap is a mild cold at best, why should I be worried?  Not giving big pharma or communists any more support.

Does that mean you're willing to forgo hospital stay or any treatment should you become sick with any sort of illness or infection? If you buy cold medicine or prescription drugs or antacids or antibiotics, you're still "supporting big pharma"

[DabbingSanta]

damn it.

you all need to stop whining online and go out and get your boosters now.

Nope, I got the two shots to "return to normal" and we are still dealing with this crap.  Omicrap is a mild cold at best, why should I be worried?  Not giving big pharma or communists any more support.

Does that mean you're willing to forgo hospital stay or any treatment should you become sick with any sort of illness or infection? If you buy cold medicine or prescription drugs or antacids or antibiotics, you're still "supporting big pharma"

It's getting pretty close to that point, especially given the number of times Canada's so-called "amazing" universal health care system has failed me.  We would be healthier without all the drugs big corporations push on us.  Natives treated these illnesses hundreds of years ago with mixed results.  I'm willing to try it...

[ProudModerate2]

Trump met with boos after revealing he received Covid-19 booster.

Former President Donald Trump was booed by a portion of an audience in Dallas on Sunday when he said he had received a Covid-19 booster shot, according to video of the closed press event that was shared on social media.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/20/politics/donald-trump-booster-shot-boos/index.html

Click link above to watch video.

[DavidB.]

Trump should really stop doing this. Has there ever been any issue on which he's been so out of touch with his own base?

[ProudModerate2]

Trump should really stop doing this. Has there ever been any issue on which he's been so out of touch with his own base?

"trump should stop doing" what, exactly?
Explain.

[compucomp]

Trump should really stop doing this. Has there ever been any issue on which he's been so out of touch with his own base?

Are you seriously criticizing Trump for this when after 4 years of mayhem and doing ridiculous sh*t seemingly out of spite, we finally see him publicly doing the right thing for once and promoting the vaccine? Honestly I don't even care if he takes credit for the vaccines if he can get some of his numbskull supporters to get it.

[DavidB.]

Trump should really stop doing this. Has there ever been any issue on which he's been so out of touch with his own base?

Are you seriously criticizing Trump for this when after 4 years of mayhem and doing ridiculous sh*t seemingly out of spite, we finally see him publicly doing the right thing for once and promoting the vaccine? Honestly I don't even care if he takes credit for the vaccines if he can get some of his numbskull supporters to get it.

The fact that people like you believe it's the first right thing he does completely proves my point that he's never been so much out of touch with his own base.

[pbrower2a]

Mild symptoms? Pancreatic cancer first manifests itself with mild symptoms.

Pancreatic cancer has a 10% 5 year survival rate. Are you suggesting COVID does as well?

The point is that minor-seeming symptoms can presage something horrific.   

[roxas11]

Trump should really stop doing this. Has there ever been any issue on which he's been so out of touch with his own base?

Part of the problem is that most people on the left and on the right do not actually believe Trump when he tells his voters that he wants them to go get vaccinated

Because If truly believed that all of his supporters should get vaccinated, he would have been the first president to take the Covid vaccine on camera. instead Biden was the one to do it and we only heard the news about Trump privately getting the shot after he had already left the white house

Trump spent most of his life shamelessly selling every product he could think of to the American people.....



Yet when it came to the vaccine he did not even try to sell it and his voter picked up on that. They saw it as proof that despite what he says in public about the vaccines he really does not actually mean it, nor is he really pushing them to actually get the shot

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Quite a bit of medical jargon that I'm too lazy to repeat here, but it all boiled down to "this is a serious matter, but there's a fine line between justifiable concern and sensational panic."

I have a friend of mine fighting off a breakthrough case right now.  She went to a party where she was exposed to a girl who (a) was experiencing symptoms and (b) knew that she could potentially be positive, but this girl attended the party anyway because she was "tired of talking about COVID".  

Now most folks aren't this brazen or inconsiderate, but just be smart and be responsible -- vaccinated or not.

I've been reading a lot of conflicting reports. Some are saying that South Africa is faring better than expected. However, others studies are saying there's no evidence Omicron is any less severe than previous variants. I think what we do know for sure is that Omicron is far more infectious than previous variants. It seems to me that even if we're fortunate in having a less virulent variant (which  is too early to say one way or the other), the biggest problems are the substantial increase in infectiousness and serious decrease in effectiveness of the vaccine prior to being boosted. For example, if the new variant were somehow 25% less severe than the previous, it wouldn't do us much good if the new variant was even just twice as infectious. Those are random numbers, but the fact we know is that infectiousness is significantly higher. I'd say the primary worry, apart from everything else we've been worrying about, is that the hospitals will be completely overrun. That's been the scariest thing in my view since the start of the pandemic. Early on, the thought of not nearly enough ventilators left me with dread. A completely overrun healthcare system affects everyone.

I got my booster just before Thanksgiving, almost seven months after my second dose (I've stuck with Pfizer all the way). What I've been reading is that, for those of us with the mRNA vaccines, effectiveness of the vaccine after the second dose goes down rapidly. It seems to me like the CDC is either behind or inept. If the second dose loses most of its effectiveness after 4-5 months, we're in big trouble if the waiting period is 6 months for boosting after the second dose. On the other hand, boosters haven't been available for that long overall. We have no idea how long boosted immunity lasts against Omicron. So far, they're holding up well and that is very good news, but we don't know what it looks like six months from now.

Mind you, these conversations took place a couple of weeks ago and this is certainly not to say that I am speaking for or acting as a representative of the research center. 

Nevertheless, the fact that Omicron appears to be easily spread is worthy of consideration (regarding hospital infrastructure).  Cases that present at hospitals don't even need to be severe -- they still have the potential to consume valuable time, resources, and manpower. 

[GoTfan]

To anyone who says this pandemic is nearly over, I'd encourage you to look at vaccination rates in places like Nigeria.

[compucomp]

To anyone who says this pandemic is nearly over, I'd encourage you to look at vaccination rates in places like Nigeria.

The issue in Africa is not lack of vaccine supply, it's lack of vaccine demand and poor infrastructure for delivering them. Multiple articles have come out about this, saying that 45% of the vaccines delivered to Africa have not been administered, SA asked vaccine companies to halt shipments, etc. This is a talking point that seriously needs to die.

[Tintrlvr]

Quite a bit of medical jargon that I'm too lazy to repeat here, but it all boiled down to "this is a serious matter, but there's a fine line between justifiable concern and sensational panic."

I have a friend of mine fighting off a breakthrough case right now.  She went to a party where she was exposed to a girl who (a) was experiencing symptoms and (b) knew that she could potentially be positive, but this girl attended the party anyway because she was "tired of talking about COVID".  

Now most folks aren't this brazen or inconsiderate, but just be smart and be responsible -- vaccinated or not.

I've been reading a lot of conflicting reports. Some are saying that South Africa is faring better than expected. However, others studies are saying there's no evidence Omicron is any less severe than previous variants. I think what we do know for sure is that Omicron is far more infectious than previous variants. It seems to me that even if we're fortunate in having a less virulent variant (which  is too early to say one way or the other), the biggest problems are the substantial increase in infectiousness and serious decrease in effectiveness of the vaccine prior to being boosted. For example, if the new variant were somehow 25% less severe than the previous, it wouldn't do us much good if the new variant was even just twice as infectious. Those are random numbers, but the fact we know is that infectiousness is significantly higher. I'd say the primary worry, apart from everything else we've been worrying about, is that the hospitals will be completely overrun. That's been the scariest thing in my view since the start of the pandemic. Early on, the thought of not nearly enough ventilators left me with dread. A completely overrun healthcare system affects everyone.

I got my booster just before Thanksgiving, almost seven months after my second dose (I've stuck with Pfizer all the way). What I've been reading is that, for those of us with the mRNA vaccines, effectiveness of the vaccine after the second dose goes down rapidly. It seems to me like the CDC is either behind or inept. If the second dose loses most of its effectiveness after 4-5 months, we're in big trouble if the waiting period is 6 months for boosting after the second dose. On the other hand, boosters haven't been available for that long overall. We have no idea how long boosted immunity lasts against Omicron. So far, they're holding up well and that is very good news, but we don't know what it looks like six months from now.

"No evidence" is mostly bad-at-communicating-scientist-speak for "No one has published a peer-reviewed study in a well regarded journal yet," which should be obvious because it's only been a month since the variant was identified but is also a totally meaningless statement. Unfortunately, occasionally they will use this way of speaking in an opposite way to describe things where there is actually affirmatively strong evidence against the statement being asserted (such as "no evidence that vaccines cause fertility problems," which really means "strong evidence exists that vaccines do not cause fertility problems"), and this creates confusion, but unless there is contrary evidence being cited (there isn't any evidence being cited that says omicron is as severe as delta, or as the original COVID), you can safely ignore "no evidence" statements.

[Hammy]

Mild symptoms? Pancreatic cancer first manifests itself with mild symptoms.

Pancreatic cancer has a 10% 5 year survival rate. Are you suggesting COVID does as well?

The point is that minor-seeming symptoms can presage something horrific.   

Except that's literally not the case here. People who get mild covid from Omicron are recovering fairly quickly, and in fact there was an article several pages back that showed it's lasting somewhere between half and 75% of the time.

By your own logic, we should just wrap ourselves in bubbles because LITERALLY EVERYTHING starts with mild symptoms so we should treat a cough or sneeze like we have a deadly illness.