COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It is kind of ridiculous for a government to put the onus on private individuals to check vaccine cards every time someone wants to use their business.

Congress should have passed a nationwide vaccine mandate, enforced by federal law enforcement, and sent everyone who refused to get vaxxed to the ANWR.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The study above doesn't actually study Omicron cases, but total cases--and they're estimating how many cases are in there via extrapolation.

More than likely, the drop in hospital protection is a combination of waning immunity and the large number of people that are hospitalized for other things, and test positive on screening.

The 78,000 cases were attributed to Omicron based on the relative prevalence of the variant within the country over the study period, but because they have not been confirmed as being the new variant the study cannot offer conclusive findings.]The 78,000 cases were attributed to Omicron based on the relative prevalence of the variant within the country over the study period, but because they have not been confirmed as being the new variant the study cannot offer conclusive findings.

Why would you conclude, without any sort of actual evidence, that your explanation is “more than likely”?

Just statistically speaking, even if we had no evidence whatsoever, or prior estimate should be that Omicron is less severe that previous variants, just because variants tend to become less severe over time for most viruses.  But now we actually have tons of evidence to back this up, and I don’t understand why people keep scratching around for explanations other than the obvious one.

[Inmate Trump]

Has there still been no data on Moderna‘s efficacy against Omicron?

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Has there still been no data on Moderna‘s efficacy against Omicron?

Moderna has been oddly cagey about their data, even when it comes to Delta, but the relatively small number of breakthrough cases with their vaccine seems to say a lot.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Philadelphia is about to implement the card for indoor dining, and I'll be darned if that isn't my last straw with this city. One more year and I am out of this nightmare.  The whole northeast has lost its collective minds, and every time I have travelled in the last two years, it depresses me endlessly that I have to return to this disgusting and filthy place when it's all over while those locals get to keep on living normal lives.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Philadelphia is about to implement the card for indoor dining, and I'll be darned if that isn't my last straw with this city. One more year and I am out of this nightmare.  The whole northeast has lost its collective minds, and every time I have travelled in the last two years, it depresses me endlessly that I have to return to this disgusting and filthy place when it's all over while those locals get to keep on living normal lives.

lol Philly is filthy, disgusting and insane because you have to show your vaxx card to go into a restaurant

[pbrower2a]

You are obliged to show your driver's license when stopped by the police for a possible traffic violation even if you did nothing wrong. I have been stopped by the police for suspected DUI... once because I found a traffic sign confusing and another time because I was in no condition to be on the road (it was 8 PM, I have sleep apnea, and I was driving erratically). In both cases I should have been stopped.

A vaccine card is an indication that you have been inoculated, and its absence suggests otherwise by default. I keep mine in my wallet and consider it as important as my driver's license. I can kill someone with bad driving, and if I did get COVID-19 and spread it I could kill people.

Getting inoculated is easy and it is available at the right price -- FREE.

Most restaurants and many stores have signs that say "NO SHIRT, NO SHOES, NO SERVICE". You can be removed from a public place for disorderly conduct such as profanities or heckling.
 

[Matty]

This country is going to face severe winter instability re: protests and uprisings if high case counts prompt restrictions again.

The fact is: case counts are no longer the Indicator that matters

We’re seeing 99% vaxxed colleges end in person activity. We are seeing 99% vaxxed nfl facilities shut down

It’s not sustainable.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

You are obliged to show your driver's license when stopped by the police for a possible traffic violation even if you did nothing wrong. I have been stopped by the police for suspected DUI... once because I found a traffic sign confusing and another time because I was in no condition to be on the road (it was 8 PM, I have sleep apnea, and I was driving erratically). In both cases I should have been stopped.

A vaccine card is an indication that you have been inoculated, and its absence suggests otherwise by default. I keep mine in my wallet and consider it as important as my driver's license. I can kill someone with bad driving, and if I did get COVID-19 and spread it I could kill people.

Getting inoculated is easy and it is available at the right price -- FREE.

Most restaurants and many stores have signs that say "NO SHIRT, NO SHOES, NO SERVICE". You can be removed from a public place for disorderly conduct such as profanities or heckling.
 

I don’t really think this is the right analogy for a vaccine mandate on restaurants.

The drivers licensing requirement is a mandate passed by the state, enforced by the state, and funded by the state.

The restaurant mandate is passed by the state, but then the state completely passes the buck and washes their hands of enforcement.  Instead, the enforcement burden is passed on to private individuals (business owners) who have done nothing wrong.  And then these businesses end up being harassed by anti-vaxxers, and some may lose business because of it.

This is really like if a state said that drivers had to have a license, but instead of police or the DMV checking licenses, they told restaurants that they had to check the licenses of all customers who wanted to use their parking lot.

If a state wanted to pass a vaccine mandate to drive, I would be all for it.

[Hammy]

You are obliged to show your driver's license when stopped by the police for a possible traffic violation even if you did nothing wrong. I have been stopped by the police for suspected DUI... once because I found a traffic sign confusing and another time because I was in no condition to be on the road (it was 8 PM, I have sleep apnea, and I was driving erratically). In both cases I should have been stopped.

A vaccine card is an indication that you have been inoculated, and its absence suggests otherwise by default. I keep mine in my wallet and consider it as important as my driver's license. I can kill someone with bad driving, and if I did get COVID-19 and spread it I could kill people.

Getting inoculated is easy and it is available at the right price -- FREE.

Most restaurants and many stores have signs that say "NO SHIRT, NO SHOES, NO SERVICE". You can be removed from a public place for disorderly conduct such as profanities or heckling.
 

I don’t really think this is the right analogy for a vaccine mandate on restaurants.

The drivers licensing requirement is a mandate passed by the state, enforced by the state, and funded by the state.

The restaurant mandate is passed by the state, but then the state completely passes the buck and washes their hands of enforcement.  Instead, the enforcement burden is passed on to private individuals (business owners) who have done nothing wrong. And then these businesses end up being harassed by anti-vaxxers, and some may lose business because of it.

This is really like if a state said that drivers had to have a license, but instead of police or the DMV checking licenses, they told restaurants that they had to check the licenses of all customers who wanted to use their parking lot.

If a state wanted to pass a vaccine mandate to drive, I would be all for it.

You've gone so deep into false equivalency you've leapt entirely into a different concept entirely. To enter a bar, you are not carded in the parking lot, you are carded on entry. And it's not the police or DMV checking your ID in any circumstances.

The red bold is very literally how card checking works where ID is required. Absolutely nowhere is the state or DMV involved in this process--nobody has police or DMV officials standing outside to make sure your ID is valid.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

You are obliged to show your driver's license when stopped by the police for a possible traffic violation even if you did nothing wrong. I have been stopped by the police for suspected DUI... once because I found a traffic sign confusing and another time because I was in no condition to be on the road (it was 8 PM, I have sleep apnea, and I was driving erratically). In both cases I should have been stopped.

A vaccine card is an indication that you have been inoculated, and its absence suggests otherwise by default. I keep mine in my wallet and consider it as important as my driver's license. I can kill someone with bad driving, and if I did get COVID-19 and spread it I could kill people.

Getting inoculated is easy and it is available at the right price -- FREE.

Most restaurants and many stores have signs that say "NO SHIRT, NO SHOES, NO SERVICE". You can be removed from a public place for disorderly conduct such as profanities or heckling.
 

I don’t really think this is the right analogy for a vaccine mandate on restaurants.

The drivers licensing requirement is a mandate passed by the state, enforced by the state, and funded by the state.

The restaurant mandate is passed by the state, but then the state completely passes the buck and washes their hands of enforcement.  Instead, the enforcement burden is passed on to private individuals (business owners) who have done nothing wrong. And then these businesses end up being harassed by anti-vaxxers, and some may lose business because of it.

This is really like if a state said that drivers had to have a license, but instead of police or the DMV checking licenses, they told restaurants that they had to check the licenses of all customers who wanted to use their parking lot.

If a state wanted to pass a vaccine mandate to drive, I would be all for it.

You've gone so deep into false equivalency you've leapt entirely into a different concept entirely. To enter a bar, you are not carded in the parking lot, you are carded on entry. And it's not the police or DMV checking your ID in any circumstances.

The red bold is very literally how card checking works where ID is required. Absolutely nowhere is the state or DMV involved in this process--nobody has police or DMV officials standing outside to make sure your ID is valid.

You’re talking about the law that requires you to be 21 to drink, not the law that requires a license to drive.  You are right that requiring bars to enforce the drinking age is much closer to the vaccine mandate for restaurants than the drivers license requirement.   I kind of think we don’t have state enforcement for this because in many contexts a lot of people don’t want it rigorously enforced.

[Lief 🗽]

https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1471100513353613314?s=21

Interesting. Should our most morally depraved genetic scientists be hard at work genetically engineering an ultra-contagious but much less virulent variant to unleash into the population to out compete all existing variants? This could be accompanied with a new mRNA booster designed specifically for this variant. This “one two punch” could end the pandemic once and for all.

[pbrower2a]

You are obliged to show your driver's license when stopped by the police for a possible traffic violation even if you did nothing wrong. I have been stopped by the police for suspected DUI... once because I found a traffic sign confusing and another time because I was in no condition to be on the road (it was 8 PM, I have sleep apnea, and I was driving erratically). In both cases I should have been stopped.

A vaccine card is an indication that you have been inoculated, and its absence suggests otherwise by default. I keep mine in my wallet and consider it as important as my driver's license. I can kill someone with bad driving, and if I did get COVID-19 and spread it I could kill people.

Getting inoculated is easy and it is available at the right price -- FREE.

Most restaurants and many stores have signs that say "NO SHIRT, NO SHOES, NO SERVICE". You can be removed from a public place for disorderly conduct such as profanities or heckling.
 

I don’t really think this is the right analogy for a vaccine mandate on restaurants.

The drivers licensing requirement is a mandate passed by the state, enforced by the state, and funded by the state.

The restaurant mandate is passed by the state, but then the state completely passes the buck and washes their hands of enforcement.  Instead, the enforcement burden is passed on to private individuals (business owners) who have done nothing wrong.  And then these businesses end up being harassed by anti-vaxxers, and some may lose business because of it.

This is really like if a state said that drivers had to have a license, but instead of police or the DMV checking licenses, they told restaurants that they had to check the licenses of all customers who wanted to use their parking lot.

If a state wanted to pass a vaccine mandate to drive, I would be all for it.

Restaurants and retailers selling alcoholic beverages and tobacco products are obliged to check ID to ensure that people of less-than-legal age aren't buying or using the stuff.

I would be willing to get an endorsement on my driver's license stating that I had been inoculated for COVID-19.

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1471100513353613314?s=21

Interesting. Should our most morally depraved genetic scientists be hard at work genetically engineering an ultra-contagious but much less virulent variant to unleash into the population to out compete all existing variants? This could be accompanied with a new mRNA booster designed specifically for this variant. This “one two punch” could end the pandemic once and for all.

See the problem is…that’s very risky, and if it backfires, it would go horribly. Even if it went as planned, think of the optics.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1471100513353613314?s=21

Interesting. Should our most morally depraved genetic scientists be hard at work genetically engineering an ultra-contagious but much less virulent variant to unleash into the population to out compete all existing variants? This could be accompanied with a new mRNA booster designed specifically for this variant. This “one two punch” could end the pandemic once and for all.

I'm recommending this post for the tweet, but not for the engineering idea. I don't think we should be "playing God" with diseases like this. Your idea reminds me of the movies Planet of the Apes and I Am Legend, in which human-engineered viruses, which were originally devised to "cure Alzheimer's Disease" or to "cure cancer", became virulent infectious diseases and wiped out most of the human race. I'm not suggesting that would happen here, but I wouldn't want to tempt fate.

[pbrower2a]

If I need another vaccination for the Omicron variant, then I am getting it. 

[Inmate Trump]

If I need another vaccination for the Omicron variant, then I am getting it. 

As will I.

I just don't know that many will.  I hope I'm wrong.  I just don't see everyone going out to get jabbed for each new variant that pops up.  It'll be a constant vaccination every few months.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1471100513353613314?s=21

Interesting. Should our most morally depraved genetic scientists be hard at work genetically engineering an ultra-contagious but much less virulent variant to unleash into the population to out compete all existing variants? This could be accompanied with a new mRNA booster designed specifically for this variant. This “one two punch” could end the pandemic once and for all.

I'm recommending this post for the tweet, but not for the engineering idea. I don't think we should be "playing God" with diseases like this. Your idea reminds me of the movies Planet of the Apes and I Am Legend, in which human-engineered viruses, which were originally devised to "cure Alzheimer's Disease" or to "cure cancer", became virulent infectious diseases and wiped out most of the human race. I'm not suggesting that would happen here, but I wouldn't want to tempt fate.

The idea that a drug could become virulent disease is far-fetched but Bevin was a dirty dick when he intentionally infected his kids with herpes and whoever intentionally gets people sick, even if its a little sick, is a dirty dick too.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If I need another vaccination for the Omicron variant, then I am getting it. 

As will I.

I just don't know that many will.  I hope I'm wrong.  I just don't see everyone going out to get jabbed for each new variant that pops up.  It'll be a constant vaccination every few months.

*shrug* I get a flu shot every year.  I've had the flu a few times and an occasional shot is far preferable to it.  I'm willing to do the same for COVID if necessary.  I think some of the manufacturers are even working on a combined shot (both flu and COVID) which would be very convenient.

[emailking]

I prefer constant vaccinations to getting sick. I'd do a vaccination every few months for the common cold if there was such a thing.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/weijia/status/1471157087669526538

[Inmate Trump]

https://twitter.com/weijia/status/1471157087669526538

Hoping that includes Moderna and not just Pfizer, which gets all the attention.

I read J&J’s protection is wiped out by omicron. So hopefully those people get a booster soon.

[Omega21]

I think it's time we change the thread title, Delta is a Boomer on its way out at this point.

[Matty]

Some positive news out of Gauteng today


The positivity rate is falling

Gauteng is THE place to watch, because it is where omicron first took off

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Some positive news out of Gauteng today


The positivity rate is falling

Gauteng is THE place to watch, because it is where omicron first took off

Nuh. UK and Denmark are the places to watch, because they are hit by Omicron and have very good data. In 2-4 weeks, we'll get a lot of data from there and know exactly how transmittable, immune-evasive and severe Omicron is.


By the way, a recent study from Denmark says an infection gives better and much longer immunity (against reinfection) than 2 doses. 2 doses + vaccination is, though, even better, albeit marginally. It might mean that pandemic is near its end* anyway.

^{*not for Pandemic Cult}

https://twitter.com/KasperKepp/status/1469417462160666624