COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Sol]

Doesn't it seem strange that these new variants always seem to come just when we are managing the one before it? They don't come all at once, and why is that? Are these things being engineered? And now we are being told by pharmaceutical companies to get boosters. What? We are allowing pharmaceutical companies to run the dialogue?

I believe there is something fishy going on. I'm tired of being a human pin cushion. I think we are being hoodwinked.

We're not being hoodwinked. It's omicron because we're on O.

Well they skipped nu and xi. Nu because it sounds like new, and xi because that's the name of the leader of China.

So this is totally tangential...but can anyone explain why the Chinese President's name is transliterated as "Xi" and not "Shi"?  I.e. why is an "sh" sound in Chinese written as "x" in English, when "x" is almost never pronounced as "sh" in English words?

Chinese has two sounds which map on roughly to English "sh." One is written with "sh" (as seen in Shenzhen) while the other is written with "x." The two sound alike to English speakers but are articulated with different parts of the tongue--they're [ʂ] and [ɕ] in phonetic terms. A similar distinction is made in Polish and Russian.

Pinyin is designed to be a very efficient writing system, avoiding the many digraphs of earlier systems in favor of streamlined but somewhat unusual uses of superfluous Latin letters. "X" for a "sh"-like sound is unheard of in English but is extremely common in the languages of Iberia--it's still used that way in Portuguese, Basque, and Catalan, and was used that way in Spanish in the recent past until the spelling changed largely to "j" and the pronounciation to a further back "kh" sound like Scottish loch. So using "x" for such a sound was natural, especially for trained linguists who'd be familiar with this history.

I'm also not as up on the history of Pinyin as I ought to be, so take this with a grain of salt, but Pinyin I think was also designed to be as much for domestic use as for foreign consumption--as a computer input, as an aid for Mandarin learners or kids learning to write, etc. So a system which is more elegant and simple would be more important.

Speaking subjectively, Pinyin is an excellent system. The representation of the aspiration distinction is particularly inspired.

[DINGO Joe]

I was looking at the CDC age data for COVID deaths today and it was interesting how much younger the deaths in 2021 will be than it 2020.  The only age group that will have an actual decrease in deaths this year will be the over 85 age group (the 75-84 should be about flat),  Starting with the 55-64 age group, the number of deaths basically double from last year.  Obviously Delta was a deadlier variant for a larger portion of the population. 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#AgeAndSex

Deaths will also be much more Whiter and slightly more male than last year.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I said in a previous thread Homeless people are the biggest transmission of COVID, they get in buses and you don't know if you have it due to motion sickness and when you get home you have the flu, everyone don't drive.

Homeless people was 500K it's approaching 1M since the Pandemic

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Very early pre-print small sample studies, but:

https://www.ft.com/content/7b65c385-4147-492a-a946-30f98e59d8b0
BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine may be less effective against Omicron, study finds
South African researchers report ‘extensive but incomplete’ reduction in immune protection

Researchers from the African Health Research Institute reported the loss of immune protection from the vaccine was “extensive but incomplete” in the first published study that pitted the jab against Omicron.

The researchers took 14 plasma samples from 12 participants that had been vaccinated with two doses of the BioNTech vaccine and tested the ability of the plasma to neutralise Omicron.

The laboratory experiments found Omicron infection resulted in a 41-fold reduction in virus-blocking antibodies compared with the original strain of the virus detected in Wuhan almost two years ago.

Omicron also escaped antibody neutralisation “much more extensive[ly]” than the Beta variant that was previously dominant in South Africa, the study’s authors found.

However, Alex Sigal, head of research at the Durban-based laboratory, said that despite the significant reduction in antibody production, Omicron did not evade the vaccine entirely.

In a much more positive finding, the researchers reported that people who had previously been infected with Covid-19 in addition to having been double-vaccinated retained “relatively high levels” of antibody protection. That would “likely confer protection from severe disease in Omicron infection”, they added.

The study showed that doubled-jabbed people who had also previously been infected were “all in the safe zone”, according to Altmann, who said this group was in some ways comparable with people who had received three doses.

Separately, researchers at Sweden’s Karolinska Institutet said they had observed “exceptionally variable” loss of neutralisation against Omicron, with some samples “showing almost no loss” and some showing considerably more.

The average loss of potency of neutralisation was “lower than feared”, which would make Omicron worse than Delta but “not as extreme as we expected”, said Ben Murrell, one of the investigators. The researchers used a pseudovirus engineered to look like the new strain in their experiments.

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1468494406516887556
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1468539978292604928

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/1468553513907236864

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/WalkerBragman/status/1468063528066166787

[Aurelius]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-08/omicron-symptoms-far-milder-s-africa-hospital-group-ceo-says

“While we fully recognize that it is still early days, if this trend continues, it would appear that with a few exceptions of those requiring tertiary care, the fourth wave can be adequately treated at a primary care level,” Friedland said.

If this is all true, Omicron is a flu. We've reached the natural endgame. Time to stop worrying so much. And if this still holds up in a month or two, time to end the test-trace-quarantine theater too.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol, it's the flu, I had the vaccine, I had the flu a few days ago, I quickly recovered, I know some people have a hard time with the flu don't forget in the 1990s Jim Henson died from strep throat, we have had these plagues before

[Pericles]

The vaccine efficacy data is certainly worrying. It now looks as if the Omicron wave could be severe, but either a new vaccine within a few months or enough triple-dosing offers hope. Therefore, it is wise to try and delay the spread with restrictions.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It's seeming more and more certain that the worst thing we could do right now it implement restrictions that would impede Omicron from out-competing more deadly variants.

[Aurelius]

The vaccine efficacy data is certainly worrying. It now looks as if the Omicron wave could be severe, but either a new vaccine within a few months or enough triple-dosing offers hope. Therefore, it is wise to try and delay the spread with restrictions.

The spread of Omicron is a good thing. It's the least severe variant so far, and the sooner it displaces Delta the better. I'm not particularly concerned about vaccine efficacy when even the WHO came out a few days ago and said nobody has died of Omicron.

If restrictions return, I'm not obeying them. After two years of this, I've had enough.

[Pericles]

We don't actually know that Omicron is mild enough or that it's potential mildness outweighs the increased spread especially if that is also driven by reduced vaccine efficacy. We can't rely on a few known cases from southern Africa.

[GP270watch]

 The vaccines as just announced are still incredibly statistically effective against all variants of Covid-19 and what we should be concentrating on is getting a higher percent of the population immunized.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

We don't actually know that Omicron is mild enough or that it's potential mildness outweighs the increased spread especially if that is also driven by reduced vaccine efficacy. We can't rely on a few known cases from southern Africa.

South Africa has over 10,000 cases a day right now.  And still zero reported deaths?  This seems like a pretty substantial sample size to me.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/BeckyQuick/status/1468548928564084745

If everyone would just get vaccinated, we'd have this virus beaten in no time.

[Not Me, Us]

It seems pretty clear that Omicron is nothing to worry about, and is in fact a good thing if it can outcompete Delta. With three doses of Pfizer, the time to worry about COVID is over. Happy holidays, everyone!

[emailking]

We don't actually know that Omicron is mild enough or that it's potential mildness outweighs the increased spread especially if that is also driven by reduced vaccine efficacy. We can't rely on a few known cases from southern Africa.

South Africa has over 10,000 cases a day right now.  And still zero reported deaths?  This seems like a pretty substantial sample size to me.

They have deaths everyday. They're not tied to Omicron, but neither are most of the cases, even if it's likely they're half or whatever.

[Pericles]

It seems pretty clear that Omicron is nothing to worry about, and is in fact a good thing if it can outcompete Delta. With three doses of Pfizer, the time to worry about COVID is over. Happy holidays, everyone!

How many people are triple dosed? Doesn't seem like the right time to just ignore the problem.

[Not Me, Us]

It seems pretty clear that Omicron is nothing to worry about, and is in fact a good thing if it can outcompete Delta. With three doses of Pfizer, the time to worry about COVID is over. Happy holidays, everyone!

How many people are triple dosed? Doesn't seem like the right time to just ignore the problem.

Any non-triple-dosed American only has themselves to blame, but even without any vaccine, all indications are that Omicron is mild. I don’t think an Omicron wave will result in nearly as many deaths or as much strain on the healthcare system. Obviously I could be wrong, I’m certainly not an epidemiologist, but until I see credible evidence to the contrary, Omicron is nothing to be concerned about.

[2016]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/senate-passes-resolution-defund-repeal-biden-vaccine-mandate-n1285636

52-48

Even Swing State Governor Gretchen Whitmer said recently she is against 100+ Employer Vaccine Mandate for Large Businesses.

[Hammy]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/senate-passes-resolution-defund-repeal-biden-vaccine-mandate-n1285636

52-48

Even Swing State Governor Gretchen Whitmer said recently she is against 100+ Employer Vaccine Mandate for Large Businesses.

Once again Democrats proving they only answer to Republicans, and not those who voted for them.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

We don't actually know that Omicron is mild enough or that it's potential mildness outweighs the increased spread especially if that is also driven by reduced vaccine efficacy. We can't rely on a few known cases from southern Africa.

South Africa has over 10,000 cases a day right now.  And still zero reported deaths?  This seems like a pretty substantial sample size to me.

• Hospitalizations lag cases by 7-10 days. Deaths lag cases by 2-3 weeks.
• The median age in Africa is 27 years. I don't know the age distribution among Omicron infected, but I believe they are pretty young. With delta you could probably expect 1 out 100 to be hospitalized and 1 of 100 000 dead.

But this is applies to people with no immunity. As I said, 10% are vaccinated, but according to studies, 70-90% of SA population has been infected earlier. That means

• a lot of natural immunity
• most vulnerable have already died

With that said, it's obviously a good news, that no one has died from Omicron so far.

[Aurelius]

More good news out of South Africa:

https://www.cityam.com/anxiously-optimistic-south-africa-holds-its-breath-as-battle-of-the-covid-mutations-rages-omicron-deaths-still-zero-despite-new-coronavirus-variant-spreading-twice-as-fast-as-deadly-delta/

Moreover, Dr Abdullah’s team found that the average time they stayed at the hospital was only three days, far below the average 8.5 days for Covid patients throughout the pandemic so far.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1468913317808943108

DIS!

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1468064213314772995?s=20

Are these numbers for a single day? Jesus Christ.

Monday backlog. Most states don't log numbers on weekends.

Yet, a new wave is coming, and it might get even [much?] worse, when Omicron takes over. If it really as contagious as it seems to be, it might overwhelm hospitals, even if it is milder (which we still don't know). And Biden has already ruled out "lockdowns". Well, at least, Omicron made people more willing to vaccinate themselves.

You still think there should be lockdowns? They obviously don’t work.

Lockdowns were necessary when there was no vaccine. Vaccines seem to solve COVID-19 except among those fools who refuse to get inoculated.