Armenia—Azerbaijan Conflict Aftermath: Discord in Armenia

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/ALavrina/status/1570088233614315529?cxt=HHwWksDQ6cC7icorAAAA
It seems Kazakhstan is seeking to signal neutrality (though this is, it must be noted, a pro-Azeri talking point in practice).

A kick in the teeth for Armenia, who helped Tokayev when he activated Article 4 to clamp down on protesters.

Indeed it is, but Kazakhstan has ties to Azerbaijan and Turkey which they won't jeopardize by helping Armenia. At least CSTO has been shown as the completely worthless organization which it is.

https://twitter.com/BarracudaVol1/status/1570136262715006980?s=20&t=s9uSP6Lg...

[Lechasseur]

https://euroweeklynews.com/2022/09/15/update-azerbaijan-and-armenia-agree-to-call-a-truce/

A truce has reportedly been agreed, but Iran refuses any changes to the border and has mobilized troops at the border, while France and Greece have reportedly offered Armenia military aid.

[Lechasseur]

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20220915-armenia-azerbaijan-agree-on-cease-fire-after-new-clashes

According to France 24, Armenia and Azerbaijan have agreed to a ceasefire.

And according to the article, the protests yesterday were sparked by rumours that the Armenian Prime Minister had agreed to cede Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan in exchange for Azeri forces pulling out of Armenia, something that PM Pashinyan denies.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

https://t.me/sputnik/13169

"Representatives of the CSTO will arrive in Yerevan on the evening of September 15.

"There is no question of using force on the border of Armenia and Azerbaijan.

"This was stated by the head of the Joint Staff of the organization Anatoly Sidorov.

"The application for sending the mission was put forward by Putin. It was supported by all CSTO member states."

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

https://euroweeklynews.com/2022/09/15/update-azerbaijan-and-armenia-agree-to-call-a-truce/

A truce has reportedly been agreed, but Iran refuses any changes to the border and has mobilized troops at the border, while France and Greece have reportedly offered Armenia military aid.

The vanguard of Western civilization.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

https://t.me/sputnik/13169

"Representatives of the CSTO will arrive in Yerevan on the evening of September 15.

"There is no question of using force on the border of Armenia and Azerbaijan.

"This was stated by the head of the Joint Staff of the organization Anatoly Sidorov.

"The application for sending the mission was put forward by Putin. It was supported by all CSTO member states."

Guy invading a country saved a country from being invaded.

[If my soul was made of stone]

https://euroweeklynews.com/2022/09/15/update-azerbaijan-and-armenia-agree-to-call-a-truce/

A truce has reportedly been agreed, but Iran refuses any changes to the border and has mobilized troops at the border, while France and Greece have reportedly offered Armenia military aid.

The vanguard of Western civilization.

Gee, I wonder why the Greeks would go to bat for Armenia...(paging Greek diner owners all over suburban South Jersey)

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

https://euroweeklynews.com/2022/09/15/update-azerbaijan-and-armenia-agree-to-call-a-truce/

A truce has reportedly been agreed, but Iran refuses any changes to the border and has mobilized troops at the border, while France and Greece have reportedly offered Armenia military aid.

The vanguard of Western civilization.

Gee, I wonder why the Greeks would go to bat for Armenia...(paging Greek diner owners all over suburban South Jersey)

Greek Genocide Day, incidentally, is either near or upon us, and Armenian Independence Day is 28 September.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://euroweeklynews.com/2022/09/15/update-azerbaijan-and-armenia-agree-to-call-a-truce/

A truce has reportedly been agreed, but Iran refuses any changes to the border and has mobilized troops at the border, while France and Greece have reportedly offered Armenia military aid.

The vanguard of Western civilization.

Gee, I wonder why the Greeks would go to bat for Armenia...(paging Greek diner owners all over suburban South Jersey)

What would bronz have to say about this?

[If my soul was made of stone]

https://euroweeklynews.com/2022/09/15/update-azerbaijan-and-armenia-agree-to-call-a-truce/

A truce has reportedly been agreed, but Iran refuses any changes to the border and has mobilized troops at the border, while France and Greece have reportedly offered Armenia military aid.

The vanguard of Western civilization.

Gee, I wonder why the Greeks would go to bat for Armenia...(paging Greek diner owners all over suburban South Jersey)

What would bronz have to say about this?

Presumably something very homoerotic.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

https://euroweeklynews.com/2022/09/15/update-azerbaijan-and-armenia-agree-to-call-a-truce/

A truce has reportedly been agreed, but Iran refuses any changes to the border and has mobilized troops at the border, while France and Greece have reportedly offered Armenia military aid.

The vanguard of Western civilization.

Gee, I wonder why the Greeks would go to bat for Armenia...(paging Greek diner owners all over suburban South Jersey)

What would bronz have to say about this?

Presumably something very homoerotic.

Hopefully to include the word "swarthy".

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

I passed parliament on the way to work. Still a few people there, but rough parity between cops and civilians. The road next to parliament (perpendicular to Baghramyan) was completely blocked by officers with riot shields.

Thanks guys, I am back at my host family's apartment.

In other news, I guess some clownd really want Kocharyan back.
https://t.me/sputnik/13140
There have been rumblings of a Kocharyan or Sargsyan return since the 2021 election, but they failed spectacularly at the polls and their protests have so far failed.

I should amend this to note that per my "sources"--random people at work--the protesters do not lnow what they want other than for Pashinyan to leave. That said, it has been known since 2021 that there is no real alternative to Pashinyan beyond Rob and Serzh... and regardless of how many feel about Kolya, they will evidently take him over his predecessors.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It’s genuinely appalling the lack of coverage this has gotten compared to the slightest discontent between Israel-Palestine.

Well, at least you can count on Adam Schiff talking about this.

I wonder how long it'll take until we start hearing the natsec ghouls say it's okay for Azerbaijan to ethnically cleanse Armenians because Russia and Armenia are allies.

I'm seeing plenty of people saying it Armenia's fault for making a poor choice of allies, as if cutting ties with Russia would have caused the west favor them over Turkey and Azerbaijan. Then you also have the clowns who insist that Armenia needs to "accept reality" and improve relations with the country that still denies their genocide and the ethnonationist regime to their east, as if they would have been willing to do the same had they been in Armenia's position.

Yeah, blaming Armenia for this is straight-up victim-blaming and unconscionable. People with a principled view of foreign policy (admittedly not many of these people around) should really know better.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It’s genuinely appalling the lack of coverage this has gotten compared to the slightest discontent between Israel-Palestine.

Well, at least you can count on Adam Schiff talking about this.

I wonder how long it'll take until we start hearing the natsec ghouls say it's okay for Azerbaijan to ethnically cleanse Armenians because Russia and Armenia are allies.

I'm seeing plenty of people saying it Armenia's fault for making a poor choice of allies, as if cutting ties with Russia would have caused the west favor them over Turkey and Azerbaijan. Then you also have the clowns who insist that Armenia needs to "accept reality" and improve relations with the country that still denies their genocide and the ethnonationist regime to their east, as if they would have been willing to do the same had they been in Armenia's position.

Yeah, blaming Armenia for this is straight-up victim-blaming and unconscionable. People with a principled view of foreign policy (admittedly not many of these people around) should really know better.

It should be unambiguously clear that Armenia's government can, in retrospect, reasonably be blamed for underinvesting in their military and for resting on the laurels of what they attained in the 1990s for too long.

Of course, Armenia being pro-Russia making this something they deserve...that's an idea that doesn't hold up under critical analysis even from a realist perspective. One simple question pokes a huge hole in that theory, that Armenia not being pro-Russia would make the West pro-Armenia - in what world do policymakers in Washington think Azerbaijan has less to bring to the table than Armenia does?

Armenia can't rely on Washington. Washington has no means to defend the country. Armenia needs to look closer. It needs to maintain its relationships with Iran and Russia. Its current predicament is not one in which it is blameless (it has made its own share of mistakes and missteps), but it always needs Tehran and Moscow as an insurance policy to preserve its sovereignty. And that's just (geo)politics.

[Lechasseur]

It’s genuinely appalling the lack of coverage this has gotten compared to the slightest discontent between Israel-Palestine.

Well, at least you can count on Adam Schiff talking about this.

I wonder how long it'll take until we start hearing the natsec ghouls say it's okay for Azerbaijan to ethnically cleanse Armenians because Russia and Armenia are allies.

I'm seeing plenty of people saying it Armenia's fault for making a poor choice of allies, as if cutting ties with Russia would have caused the west favor them over Turkey and Azerbaijan. Then you also have the clowns who insist that Armenia needs to "accept reality" and improve relations with the country that still denies their genocide and the ethnonationist regime to their east, as if they would have been willing to do the same had they been in Armenia's position.

Yeah, blaming Armenia for this is straight-up victim-blaming and unconscionable. People with a principled view of foreign policy (admittedly not many of these people around) should really know better.

Agreed

[If my soul was made of stone]

People with a principled view of foreign policy (admittedly not many of these people around)

ok BOURGEOIS GLOBAL NORTH NEOCON LEFTIST

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

CSTO not to send troops.

Cowards.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

It’s genuinely appalling the lack of coverage this has gotten compared to the slightest discontent between Israel-Palestine.

Well, at least you can count on Adam Schiff talking about this.

I wonder how long it'll take until we start hearing the natsec ghouls say it's okay for Azerbaijan to ethnically cleanse Armenians because Russia and Armenia are allies.

I'm seeing plenty of people saying it Armenia's fault for making a poor choice of allies, as if cutting ties with Russia would have caused the west favor them over Turkey and Azerbaijan. Then you also have the clowns who insist that Armenia needs to "accept reality" and improve relations with the country that still denies their genocide and the ethnonationist regime to their east, as if they would have been willing to do the same had they been in Armenia's position.

Yeah, blaming Armenia for this is straight-up victim-blaming and unconscionable. People with a principled view of foreign policy (admittedly not many of these people around) should really know better.

It should be unambiguously clear that Armenia's government can, in retrospect, reasonably be blamed for underinvesting in their military and for resting on the laurels of what they attained in the 1990s for too long.

Of course, Armenia being pro-Russia making this something they deserve...that's an idea that doesn't hold up under critical analysis even from a realist perspective. One simple question pokes a huge hole in that theory, that Armenia not being pro-Russia would make the West pro-Armenia - in what world do policymakers in Washington think Azerbaijan has less to bring to the table than Armenia does?

Armenia can't rely on Washington. Washington has no means to defend the country. Armenia needs to look closer. It needs to maintain its relationships with Iran and Russia. Its current predicament is not one in which it is blameless (it has made its own share of mistakes and missteps), but it always needs Tehran and Moscow as an insurance policy to preserve its sovereignty. And that's just (geo)politics.

To an extent, this is true - but there is only so much which could have been done about it then militarily, and even less now. Perhaps if they'd been able to negotiate a more forgiving settlement, the question of conflict would have never arisen again, but I doubt they could have satisified the Azeris forever.

Azerbaijan has a larger population, a bigger economy, and better arms deals from its international partners. Armenia cannot sustainably outspend its military budget. What it can do is provide better training (including changing its own military doctrine*) and prepare to fight asymmetrically. That might mean letting go of the urge to rebuild its vast, pre-2020 arsenal -maintaining a quantity of (often outdated) materiel has an opportunity cost.

*For instance - as in the last war, Azerbaijan has already released footage of drones destroying fixed, dug-in gun positions. Russia and Ukraine seem to be better at avoiding this kind of vulnerability.

[CumbrianLefty]

People with a principled view of foreign policy (admittedly not many of these people around)

ok BOURGEOIS GLOBAL NORTH NEOCON LEFTIST

Pretty small subset there methinks.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

People with a principled view of foreign policy (admittedly not many of these people around)

ok BOURGEOIS GLOBAL NORTH NEOCON LEFTIST

Pretty small subset there methinks.

Obligatory Trotskyism-as-source-of-neoconservatism.

[Antonio the Sixth]

People with a principled view of foreign policy (admittedly not many of these people around)

ok BOURGEOIS GLOBAL NORTH NEOCON LEFTIST

Pretty small subset there methinks.

It's a meme started by... I don't even remember who, probably one of the posters whose geopolitical understanding begins and ends at "America Bad", but which was then coopted by my post-ironic Zoomer friends such as discovolante

[Aurelius]

[Logical]

The US has taken a much stronger stance on the latest Azeri aggression than Russia and CSTO lol.
https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1570464658707947521

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1570463327158951944?s=20&t=BuiQ1ICkdYt...

[Aurelius]

The US has taken a much stronger stance on the latest Azeri aggression than Russia and CSTO lol.
https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1570464658707947521

Iran's taken a pretty strong stance too. Strange part of the world.