Armenia—Azerbaijan Conflict Aftermath: Discord in Armenia

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

So maybe this is more part of the below-the-radar dialogue rather than anything in the news, but do we have any specific source prompting other posters' use of the word "genocide" in this conflict? Or is it more the implication of what would happen if Azerbaijan recaptured Nagorno-Karabakh? Additionally, I see one poster attributing the desire for genocide to enmity towards Christianity. Is that really true? Though religious language has probably helped to further define the sides, I don't know that this differs from any other ethnic conflict regardless of faith. In that vein, this would strike me as even more out-there than the claim that the Yugoslav Wars were the first "religious war" of the post-1991 world. Armenian and Azeri ethnic differences are far stronger than in Yugoslavia, as Azeris are Turkic whereas Armenians are distinct from all major ethnic groupings, and I daresay that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict would have ignited regardless of who was what religion.

As for whose fault this is and all that, let's try to get the timeline cleared up. Per Armenian claims (via BBC), the first move was made by Azerbaijan, which shelled civilian settlements on Sunday morning (27 September 2020), resulting in military and civilian casualties. Azerbaijani authorities in turn have attributed five civilian deaths to the Armenians. Martial law and military mobilization appear to have first been declared by Armenia then by Azerbaijan, with the latter declaring mobilization on today, Monday 28 September 2020 (per CNN). There are those that seem to believe that Armenia has no reason to start a war, and that seems correct to me, given that the objective for both sides is under Armenia suzerainty and has been for decades, so that would presumably point more towards Azerbaijan as the instigator.

@PSOL I'm trying to find more on there being a declaration of war, but everything that comes up is from yesterday and seems related to the aforementioned martial law/mobilization rather than a separate act.

Interestingly or not, Mikheil Saakashvili has apparently sided with Azerbaijan. Unsurprising, as Georgia's fuel dependence on Azerbaijan has determined a generally friendly relationship between the two since 1991, whereas Armenia probably has little that Georgia values. Additionally, one can see a congruence of interests in both countries opposing ethnic breakaway regions in parts of what would otherwise be each nation's "sovereign territory".

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Another reason for Georgia (and Ukraine-residing Misha specifically) to favor Azerbaijan would be Georgia's traditional Western orientation as opposed to Armenia's longstanding involvement with the Russian Federation.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

So maybe this is more part of the below-the-radar dialogue rather than anything in the news, but do we have any specific source prompting other posters' use of the word "genocide" in this conflict? Or is it more the implication of what would happen if Azerbaijan recaptured Nagorno-Karabakh? Additionally, I see one poster attributing the desire for genocide to enmity towards Christianity. Is that really true? Though religious language has probably helped to further define the sides, I don't know that this differs from any other ethnic conflict regardless of faith. In that vein, this would strike me as even more out-there than the claim that the Yugoslav Wars were the first "religious war" of the post-1991 world. Armenian and Azeri ethnic differences are far stronger than in Yugoslavia, as Azeris are Turkic whereas Armenians are distinct from all major ethnic groupings, and I daresay that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict would have ignited regardless of who was what religion.

As for whose fault this is and all that, let's try to get the timeline cleared up. Per Armenian claims (via BBC), the first move was made by Azerbaijan, which shelled civilian settlements on Sunday morning (27 September 2020), resulting in military and civilian casualties. Azerbaijani authorities in turn have attributed five civilian deaths to the Armenians. Martial law and military mobilization appear to have first been declared by Armenia then by Azerbaijan, with the latter declaring mobilization on today, Monday 28 September 2020 (per CNN). There are those that seem to believe that Armenia has no reason to start a war, and that seems correct to me, given that the objective for both sides is under Armenia suzerainty and has been for decades, so that would presumably point more towards Azerbaijan as the instigator.

@PSOL I'm trying to find more on there being a declaration of war, but everything that comes up is from yesterday and seems related to the aforementioned martial law/mobilization rather than a separate act.

Interestingly or not, Mikheil Saakashvili has apparently sided with Azerbaijan. Unsurprising, as Georgia's fuel dependence on Azerbaijan has determined a generally friendly relationship between the two since 1991, whereas Armenia probably has little that Georgia values. Additionally, one can see a congruence of interests in both countries opposing ethnic breakaway regions in parts of what would otherwise be each nation's "sovereign territory".

It is interesting though in that there is a large Armenian minority in Georgia.

Also has a large Azeri minority. The province of Javakheti in Georgia, on the Armenian border, is narrowly majority-Armenian, while the province of Kvemo Kartli on the Azeri border is uniformly Azeri along the southern border.

(In general, because of Stalin's influence, when the boundaries of the Transcaucasian Soviet Republicans were drawn up Georgia received very favorable lines, which has not necessarily worked out to its advantage in the post-1991 world).

On the flip side, the only one of the three of the South Caucasus states that remains fully intact territorially is Armenia, partly because its borders were so shrunken as to provide it overall ethnic heterogeneity homogeneity.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

So maybe this is more part of the below-the-radar dialogue rather than anything in the news, but do we have any specific source prompting other posters' use of the word "genocide" in this conflict? Or is it more the implication of what would happen if Azerbaijan recaptured Nagorno-Karabakh? Additionally, I see one poster attributing the desire for genocide to enmity towards Christianity. Is that really true? Though religious language has probably helped to further define the sides, I don't know that this differs from any other ethnic conflict regardless of faith. In that vein, this would strike me as even more out-there than the claim that the Yugoslav Wars were the first "religious war" of the post-1991 world. Armenian and Azeri ethnic differences are far stronger than in Yugoslavia, as Azeris are Turkic whereas Armenians are distinct from all major ethnic groupings, and I daresay that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict would have ignited regardless of who was what religion.

As for whose fault this is and all that, let's try to get the timeline cleared up. Per Armenian claims (via BBC), the first move was made by Azerbaijan, which shelled civilian settlements on Sunday morning (27 September 2020), resulting in military and civilian casualties. Azerbaijani authorities in turn have attributed five civilian deaths to the Armenians. Martial law and military mobilization appear to have first been declared by Armenia then by Azerbaijan, with the latter declaring mobilization on today, Monday 28 September 2020 (per CNN). There are those that seem to believe that Armenia has no reason to start a war, and that seems correct to me, given that the objective for both sides is under Armenia suzerainty and has been for decades, so that would presumably point more towards Azerbaijan as the instigator.

@PSOL I'm trying to find more on there being a declaration of war, but everything that comes up is from yesterday and seems related to the aforementioned martial law/mobilization rather than a separate act.

Interestingly or not, Mikheil Saakashvili has apparently sided with Azerbaijan. Unsurprising, as Georgia's fuel dependence on Azerbaijan has determined a generally friendly relationship between the two since 1991, whereas Armenia probably has little that Georgia values. Additionally, one can see a congruence of interests in both countries opposing ethnic breakaway regions in parts of what would otherwise be each nation's "sovereign territory".

It is interesting though in that there is a large Armenian minority in Georgia.

Also has a large Azeri minority. The province of Javakheti in Georgia, on the Armenian border, is narrowly majority-Armenian, while the province of Kvemo Kartli on the Azeri border is uniformly Azeri along the southern border.

(In general, because of Stalin's influence, when the boundaries of the Transcaucasian Soviet Republicans were drawn up Georgia received very favorable lines, which has not necessarily worked out to its advantage in the post-1991 world).

On the flip side, the only one of the three of the South Caucasus states that remains fully intact territorially is Armenia, partly because its borders were so shrunken as to provide it overall ethnic heterogeneity.

I think you mean homogeneity.

The largest ethnic minority in Armenia proper (not including Artsakh) are Yazidis, at about 1.5% of the population. Every other group, even Russians, are under 0.5%.

The Azeri population was significant at the time of independence (around 3% in the 1989 census) but of course quickly relocated elsewhere.

Ugh, yeah, I meant homogeneity. Thanks.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Azerbaijan could annex a lot of NK proper in the coming conflict, which is the most highly populated part of the area.

I've a feeling this is going to turn into a nightmarescape.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

So I'm most curious how this affects Pashinyan who, last I was aware, was very popular. Protesters are calling on him to resign. This IMO leads in a few possible directions: (1) the old guard of the HKK comes back (they have been decimated) and endangers democratization; (2) some new force perhaps unseats Pashinyan and endangers democratization; (3) this shatters the Velvet consensus and allows for a greater degree of pluralism (albeit with the undesirable possibility of heavy polarization as in Georgia).

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Looks like Azerbaijan is going to take advantage of a distracted Russia.

https://twitter.com/nytimesworld/status/1507808381511389185?s=20&t=eX1Ssk26q...

Entirely unsurprised. There've been rumbkings for a few weeks; I'm not super up to date, but gas was cut off to NK recently and locals think the Azeri forces installed a valve in the pipeline, allowing for arbitrary and immediate future cutoffs.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

https://twitter.com/AliTahmizian/status/1507838457984524291?s=20&t=rf7o8ETve...

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

There's been an interesting conversation (at least online) regarding Armenians and their stance on the war in Ukraine. Initially, it seemed the tone was sympathetic to Ukraine--despite Armenia's defense dependency on, and longtime "partnership" with Russia--and many seemed instinctively disgusted by the idea of a powerful neighbor invading and committing atrocities. But as tensions with Azerbaijan have increased, and Ukraine has apparently cheered-on the prospect of Azerbaijan's reunification, Armenians' stance has reassumed its natural place in alignment with Russia (despite obvious disappointment with the uselessness of Russian peacekeepers). Armenia is of course in a delicate position, because Armenians in NK are reliant on Russia for their very survival, and in terms of ideological interests, Armenians have no love for the unionism of Ukrainian (or Georgian) nationalism, as Nagorno-Karabakh occupies a position analogous to that of Crimea or South Ossetia. Nevertheless, many younger Armenians speak English and seem to lean Western, but even after the Velvet Revolutiom the West and Armenia seem to have no common interests.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

https://twitter.com/AliTahmizian/status/1507838457984524291?s=20&t=rf7o8ETve...

For some reason I thought Iran and Azerbaijan were on good terms. Did Russia pressure them to say this?

I can't give you a totally up-to-date picture on their relationship, but they were at a logger-heads as recently as last summer, I recall. There are a few key issues contributing to this. (1) Longstanding Russo-Armenian-Iranian ties, which need not be discussed at length; (2) An ever-emboldened Azerbaijan which might imagine "liberating" the periphery of a greater Azerbaijan with land in both modern-day Armenia (where there have been regular cross-border incursions) and modern-day Iran (which has a sizable Azeri population in its northwest); (3) The Israeli-Turkey/Azerbaijan rapprochement, fuel agreements, and weapons sales, which forces Iranian policymakers to imagine an Israeli intelligence outpost right on their borders.

There nevertheless may have been recent signs that tensions were ebbing--as evidenced by a chance Google find mere moments ago pointing to a recent Iranian-Azerbaijani transit relationship that (once again) circumnavigates Armenia.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

If, and this is a very big if, Iran gets militarily involved then all eyes are on what Turkey may do. Azerbaijan’s military cannot defend itself against Iran’s numerous military branches and I seriously doubt Israeli intel can bridge that gap. Of course, Turkey getting militarily involved would destroy the economy given the importance of Iranian trade.

If this is the case, then given the potential second and third order effects, let's hope Turkey can rein in its dog.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

I hope Cathcon is ok.

Wait I thought he was from Michigan?!

He's in Armenia rn

And he arrived just a few days ago. Unfortunate timing.

Got a few texts throughout the night/this morning asking about it--that was my first hearing of it. Gonna try to gather info today at work.

EDIT: FTR, I am in Yerevan.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

I hope Cathcon is ok.

Thank you

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

I hope Cathcon is ok.

Wait I thought he was from Michigan?!

He's in Armenia rn

And he arrived just a few days ago. Unfortunate timing.

Hey, at least this gives him a great opportunity to be an Atlas war correspondent.

The... situation, depending on how it unfolds, may actually compel me to shuft my volunteer focus from agricultural and environmental topics.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Azerbaijan did (technically) have international law on their side when they attacked Nagorno-Karabakh, which is de jure Azeri territory.

Shelling Armenia? That's unambiguously an act of war, and totally unjustifiable. It's also the sort of thing that could trigger Armenian alliances with Iran and Russia.

Spoiler alert: Russia isn't going to do sh!t.

It is time for Kazakhstan to assume its leading role in the CSTO.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

The dispute over NK began before the two were even sovereign countries. "Borders" my ass.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

https://t.me/bagramyan26/40645

I didn't translate top to bottom, but seems Azerbaijani forces have engaged Russians in an Armenian town near the border.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

The degree of worry on the ground is greater than yesterday, but I was also at different job sites each day so it is hard to compare.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

The degree of worry on the ground is greater than yesterday, but I was also at different job sites each day so it is hard to compare.

Cathcon, I'm curious since I know you and I have similar academic/professional backgrounds - I've always found as a non-Armenian American that Armenia is a particularly hard country to "grasp" as an outsider, and that this conflict in particular is one whose debates and discussions are very insular to the Armenian and Azeri communities. Like, it's pretty common to meet non-Georgian scholars of Georgia and non-Chechen scholars of Chechnya, but basically everyone I know who studies Armenia has some personal connection to the country, either through family or marriage. As far as I know, you don't, but I could be wrong. How did you come to be involved with Armenia and do you feel like you've broken through that bubble, or do you still feel very much like a relatively uninformed outside observer who just happens to have a good view of the situation?

I can't speak to any particular longing in my soul beyond a process of elimination and a reaction to events as they occurred. I wanted to study the former Warsaw Pact because it was "cool". I narrowed down to the former USSR because that was efficient in terms of comparison and reading. I further focused on the South Caucasus and Central Asia because as an American with few real "IR" contacts they seemed the least explored--and because, unlike the Baltics, it felt there was still a story to watch unfold. (I am also bigoted against countries that are non-mountainous or too humid--I'm already from Michigan!) Armenia's 2018 Velvet Revolution made it a fascinating case study, though within the usual Color Revolution framework something I still don't quite understand. I am here specifically because I got bored with my actual career (and failed in an attempt to enter a new PhD program out of state), searched "volunteer in [post-Soviet country]", and found a very reputable option in Armenia, which along with Georgia was in my top two preferences.

As for trying to "grasp" Armenia, I don't quite think I'm there, but I also don't really intuit what that phrase means (autism alert). I suppose one example of real disconnect would be my complete incomprehension of the rather unproductive workday here--interrupted by multiple coffee breaks and the like--but I ascribe that to a stereotype of non-Protestant culture. (And, ftr, I do tend to get singled out as the volunteer with no real "reason"--ethnicity--to be here) The conflict, however, makes fairly straightforward sense to me in a way that makes me uncomfortable when people express confusion. I try to convey these types of topics to my fellow First Worlders by way of a sort of shorthand based on self- or national-interest and examples from US politics they can hopefully relate to, but I get the impression that this still falls somewhat short. Am I just miming comprehension? Who knows.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

And ftr a US-based friend of mine advised my scrambling an exit plan. He is famously pessimistic, and going all-out would obviously be premature, but I've started carrying more cash with me, though most of it is drams.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

There are protests at parliament! I get it, but somewhat mystifying, since hypothetically these people could all be put to better use.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

There are protests at parliament! I get it, but somewhat mystifying, since hypothetically these people could all be put to better use.

I heard on Twitter it was because Pashinyan said something to the effect of "I am only open to a negotiated peace agreement with Aliyev if it has robust and trustworthy security guarantees for Armenia" and this got spun in some media as "Pashinyan open to peace agreement with Aliyev!" But at this point, it's pretty much a game of telephone regardless and hard to say what the demonstrators are protesting for or against.

Leaving parliament now. Couldn't understand a word but terrifying stuff.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Wait, you're out there right now? Stay safe indeed. Jesus.

Only went for a few minutes as part of my duties as observer of history. Trust me, I'm in no mood for tear gas on a work night.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

https://t.me/sputnik/13139

On phone so won't transcribe. You can read the caption.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Thanks guys, I am back at my host family's apartment.

In other news, I guess some clownd really want Kocharyan back.
https://t.me/sputnik/13140
There have been rumblings of a Kocharyan or Sargsyan return since the 2021 election, but they failed spectacularly at the polls and their protests have so far failed.