CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Matty]

Philosophically, I am not someone who values democracy in and of itself.

I am a classical liberal. I believe in private property rights, freedom of contract, freedom of exchange, individual liberty, and an extremely small and passive govt.

A democracy without a safeguard like our bill of rights would lead to as bad abuse of human rights as any monarchy or dictatorship.

The great mass of humanity has shown itself to be no more respectful of the rights of others than a despot.

I would much rather live under a king restrained by a constitution than a democracy in which everything was determined by majority rule.

[Devout Centrist]

I am a classical liberal.

I would much rather live under a king

How very 'classically liberal' of you.

Very disgusting stuff here dude. Not at all unexpected of course, but regardless. Though I'm not sure how your own deranged anti-democratic tendencies are relevant here.

[DrScholl]

A king under a constitution makes sense because he would have no reason to abide by a constitution with no democratic checks in place. Majority rule worked fine until it no longer favored Republicans. We the People has now become We the Plurality or We the Conservatives.

[Devils30]

I think the era of Trump has ended the days of Democrats not being able to turn out their voters. It's no longer a challenge to convey to low propensity voters what is at stake because we are basically in a non-stop political cycle.

Hopefully the ending of mailing of ballots in most states will end that

Georgia is a very low VBM state and yet the Dems got 94-95% of their voters to turnout for a special election 8 weeks after the highest presidential turnout in 120 years. GA also doesn't mail ballots out unless the voter specifically requests one.

You do know that most vote by mail voters are high propensity and educated. In other words, if you ban VBM then 99.99% of them will show up in person to vote. If the GOP was serious they'd challenge more of the Dems lower propensity types who vote in person.

[H. Ross Peron]

Philosophically, I am not someone who values democracy in and of itself.

I am a classical liberal. I believe in private property rights, freedom of contract, freedom of exchange, individual liberty, and an extremely small and passive govt.

A democracy without a safeguard like our bill of rights would lead to as bad abuse of human rights as any monarchy or dictatorship.

The great mass of humanity has shown itself to be no more respectful of the rights of others than a despot.

I would much rather live under a king restrained by a constitution than a democracy in which everything was determined by majority rule.

You should be reminded of the fact that you are in no sense an original thinker nor that you've stumbled upon particularly insightful arguments by parroting these right-liberal talking points which would have been not out of place in the Victorian Era. I urge you to research and meditate upon the fate of the July Monarchy in France which, more than any other government in history, approached the conditions you speak of.

[Minnesota Mike]

Riverside is almost surely going to flip now. 

It will be close. There are an estimated 100,000 absentees out and yes trails by 14,000 votes. Yes would need to win the remaining votes 57% to 43%. Since election night Yes has been winning in Riverside 55 - 45%.

[H. Ross Peron]

https://twitter.com/sfchronicle/status/1438897970989109253

Very sceptical Newsom won noncollege whites in 2018 by 10 percentage points

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/sfchronicle/status/1438897970989109253

Very sceptical Newsom won noncollege whites in 2018 by 10 percentage points

"I love the poorly educated."

[Sbane]

https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1438935966803062784?s=20

Only the most demographically concentrated areas are highlighted and analyzed, but you can see the overflow in surrounding precincts not dominated by one group.

What do they attribute this to?  Increased racism after the election due to covid?

Rather I think a lot of Asians swung to Trump in 2020 due to the riots and in the case of the Vietnamese community in particular, fear of "socialism". This was just a mean reversion more than anything.

[Sbane]

I think the era of Trump has ended the days of Democrats not being able to turn out their voters. It's no longer a challenge to convey to low propensity voters what is at stake because we are basically in a non-stop political cycle.

Hopefully the ending of mailing of ballots in most states will end that

Trying to stop people from voting is a losing strategy. It's not going to work and even more people won't vote for your party. At this point I think it would be best to dissolve the CA GOP and start a new party that can appeal to the well-educated suburbs that dot California (and increasingly other states as well), rather than the dying rural bumpkin they currently appeal to with candidates like Trump or Elder.

[wbrocks67]

Current results via CA SOS:

NO 5,840,283 (63.9%)
YES 3,297,145 (36.1%)

Looks like all E-Day votes are in, or nearly all of them, and Newsom still leads by 28%. Damn.

Remains to be seen how the rest of the mail ballots fall, if they are more R-leaning or D-leaning, but seems very likely he'll definitely stay above his 2018 margin.

Latest update:

NO 6,703,848 (63.5%)
YES 3,855,596 (36.5%)

We have gone from 9.1M to 10.6M now, and Newsom margin went from +27.8 to +27.0. So I imagine it settles in around Newsom +26 by the end of counting

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Larry Elder blame the Liberal media, but what about him going on Fox news and talking to Hannity, Hannity is an entertainer, Blks and Latinos listen to him for opinions but are D

[Holmes]

Larry Elder blame the Liberal media, but what about him going on Fox news and talking to Hannity, Hannity is an entertainer, Blks and Latinos listen to him for opinions but are D

I don’t think blacks or latinos listen to Hannity.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Larry Elder blame the Liberal media, but what about him going on Fox news and talking to Hannity, Hannity is an entertainer, Blks and Latinos listen to him for opinions but are D

I don’t think blacks or latinos listen to Hannity.

I know Vets that been in military Blks and Latinos, personally that like Sean Hannity due to military, Fox news have a military bias

Alot of Conservative  Vets voted against Hilary and voted for Biden due to Benghazi

Now, if you are talking Disabled Blks and Latinos Vets they are Ds

[Devils30]

https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/18/politics/biden-california-democrats-midterms/index.html

"One of the big advantages Newsom had in this race is that Biden is quite popular in California. The current exit poll puts his approval rating at 58% to a disapproval rating of 39%. (The preelection Public Policy Institute of California poll similarly had the split at 58% to 38%."

My problem with this is the exit poll has Newsom winning 60-40 whereas the results are clearly going to be around 25-27% in the end. If Biden is +19 in the exit poll he might really be +25-27 if you weight the exit poll to the correct results.

[wbrocks67]

https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/18/politics/biden-california-democrats-midterms/index.html

"One of the big advantages Newsom had in this race is that Biden is quite popular in California. The current exit poll puts his approval rating at 58% to a disapproval rating of 39%. (The preelection Public Policy Institute of California poll similarly had the split at 58% to 38%."

My problem with this is the exit poll has Newsom winning 60-40 whereas the results are clearly going to be around 25-27% in the end. If Biden is +19 in the exit poll he might really be +25-27 if you weight the exit poll to the correct results.

Which would mean that despite national approval polls showing a dip, Biden is only off slightly from his 2020 margin.

Which makes me think that national polls are just as messy as they were in 2019-2020.

[Calthrina950]

https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/18/politics/biden-california-democrats-midterms/index.html

"One of the big advantages Newsom had in this race is that Biden is quite popular in California. The current exit poll puts his approval rating at 58% to a disapproval rating of 39%. (The preelection Public Policy Institute of California poll similarly had the split at 58% to 38%."

My problem with this is the exit poll has Newsom winning 60-40 whereas the results are clearly going to be around 25-27% in the end. If Biden is +19 in the exit poll he might really be +25-27 if you weight the exit poll to the correct results.

Which would mean that despite national approval polls showing a dip, Biden is only off slightly from his 2020 margin.

Which makes me think that national polls are just as messy as they were in 2019-2020.

Are you implying that Biden is actually above water at this stage?

[NOVA Green]

Just wondering, what was the result in Beverly Hills?

Well... assuming you know that these will not be broken down by City yet on the Los Angeles County election website, just like Orange County, we will need to rely on other sources.

Looks like the Los Angeles Times is tracking this (Not sure their update frequency).

Don't have LA County precinct coding at my fingertips, but in the 2020 Primary following precinct codes assigned to Beverly Hills:

LOCATION   PRECINCT
BEVERLY HILLS   0900004A
BEVERLY HILLS   0900005A
BEVERLY HILLS   0900010A
BEVERLY HILLS   0900014A
BEVERLY HILLS   0900016B
BEVERLY HILLS   0900025A
BEVERLY HILLS   0900026A
BEVERLY HILLS   0900030A
BEVERLY HILLS   0900033B
BEVERLY HILLS   0900037A
BEVERLY HILLS   0900041A
BEVERLY HILLS   0900046A


Doesn't match precinct numbers from 2021 based upon LAT data set but here are numbers from Beverly Hills based upon their latest update:

Pct 1A:   52-48 YES     (890 TVs)
Pct 4a:   62.5-37.5 YES (451 TVs)
Pct 5a:   51-49 YES     (777 TVs)
Pct 8a:   62-38 YES     (586 TVs)
Pct 10a: 45-55 NO       (1623 TVs)
Pct 16a: 45-55 NO       (1438 TVs)
Pct 18a: 41-59 NO       (1484 TVs)
Pct 20a: 46-54 NO       ( 748 TVs)
Pct 25b: 38-62 NO       ( 356 TVs)
Pct 33a: 34-66 NO       (1405 TVs)
Pct 39a: 36-64 NO       (1568 TVs)

Hope that helps!!!!







https://www.latimes.com/projects/newsom-recall-election-results-southern-california-analysis/#nt=00000175-c749-da42-a377-ff5f38920001-7030col1-main

[_.]

People keep mentioning that San Bernardino and Riverside Counties both have voted (*shockingly*) to the right of Orange County for the first time in however-dozen years, but doesn't that fail to consider the anomalous swing among the Asians of Orange County? Asian Americans are far more numerous in Orange County (over 20%) than they are in either Riverside or San Bernardino (less than 10% each).

I'd be curious to see what an adjusted Orange County margin without the Vietnamese swing would look like. Unless this is a part of a long-term shift that the Vietnamese are suddenly going to vote Democratic for the foreseeable future because COVID has been a defining issue for them, I think that the adjusted margin would be a better comparison with Orange and Riverside Counties as far as White-Hispanic partisan trends go (usually what has been the spirit of the comparison).

[NotSoLucky]

Sexist homophobic conspiracy theorist gets overwhelmingly defeated by a milquetoast liberal hypocrite.

[Non Swing Voter]

Sexist homophobic conspiracy theorist gets overwhelmingly defeated by a milquetoast liberal hypocrite.

But enough about Trump.

[Non Swing Voter]

I still can't get over the fact that Elder had the dignity to admit defeat and concede but Trump (and most of the congressional GOP) didn't.  LOL

[NOVA Green]

Just wondering, what was the result in Beverly Hills?

Well... assuming you know that these will not be broken down by City yet on the Los Angeles County election website, just like Orange County, we will need to rely on other sources.

Looks like the Los Angeles Times is tracking this (Not sure their update frequency).

Don't have LA County precinct coding at my fingertips, but in the 2020 Primary following precinct codes assigned to Beverly Hills:

LOCATION   PRECINCT
BEVERLY HILLS   0900004A
BEVERLY HILLS   0900005A
BEVERLY HILLS   0900010A
BEVERLY HILLS   0900014A
BEVERLY HILLS   0900016B
BEVERLY HILLS   0900025A
BEVERLY HILLS   0900026A
BEVERLY HILLS   0900030A
BEVERLY HILLS   0900033B
BEVERLY HILLS   0900037A
BEVERLY HILLS   0900041A
BEVERLY HILLS   0900046A


Doesn't match precinct numbers from 2021 based upon LAT data set but here are numbers from Beverly Hills based upon their latest update:

Pct 1A:   52-48 YES     (890 TVs)
Pct 4a:   62.5-37.5 YES (451 TVs)
Pct 5a:   51-49 YES     (777 TVs)
Pct 8a:   62-38 YES     (586 TVs)
Pct 10a: 45-55 NO       (1623 TVs)
Pct 16a: 45-55 NO       (1438 TVs)
Pct 18a: 41-59 NO       (1484 TVs)
Pct 20a: 46-54 NO       ( 748 TVs)
Pct 25b: 38-62 NO       ( 356 TVs)
Pct 33a: 34-66 NO       (1405 TVs)
Pct 39a: 36-64 NO       (1568 TVs)

Hope that helps!!!!

Took the liberty of crunching current numbers per LAT by precinct and putting a map up:




Numbers= Pct ID Numbers
Digits= Yes %- NO %
TV= Total Votes

Interestingly enough the precincts North of Santa Monica Blvd are the most "Pro-YES", and are roughly 90% Anglo with MHI's in NE precincts $184k /Yr and in NW precincts $250k/yr.








https://www.latimes.com/projects/newsom-recall-election-results-southern-california-analysis/#nt=00000175-c749-da42-a377-ff5f38920001-7030col1-main

[_.]

Riverside County Update

(Numbers in parentheses represent changes since yesterday's update)

50.5% (-0.7%) / 322,574 votes (+16,180) / NO
49.5% (+0.7%) / 315,702 votes (+23,558) / YES

Going by the NYT's figures (which stated 598,538 votes marked 81% of votes having been counted), we should expect there to be a final total of ~739K votes in Riverside County. Even with the current total number of votes, there are still some 100K votes left to count in this county.


Alright everybody, it was fun while it lasted, but it looks like Riverside County did indeed vote for the recall.
Honestly, looking at the numbers, it probably was by a non-insignificant margin of between 1% and 3%.
Striking vote-by-mail numbers, but ultimately they will be indecisive as Newsom stays in office.

[DINGO Joe]

Riverside County Update

(Numbers in parentheses represent changes since yesterday's update)

50.5% (-0.7%) / 322,574 votes (+16,180) / NO
49.5% (+0.7%) / 315,702 votes (+23,558) / YES

Going by the NYT's figures (which stated 598,538 votes marked 81% of votes having been counted), we should expect there to be a final total of ~739K votes in Riverside County. Even with the current total number of votes, there are still some 100K votes left to count in this county.


Alright everybody, it was fun while it lasted, but it looks like Riverside County did indeed vote for the recall.
Honestly, looking at the numbers, it probably was by a non-insignificant margin of between 1% and 3%.
Striking vote-by-mail numbers, but ultimately they will be indecisive as Newsom stays in office.

Riverside's own website says they have 65,000 mail and 5,000 provisionals left to count.