CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[wbrocks67]

We've crossed 11M

89% reporting

NO 6,984,595 (63.0%)
YES 4,094,764 (37.0%)

= 11,079,359

We've crossed 11.5M

92% reported

NO 7,289,563 (62.9%)
YES 4,295,574 (37.1%)

= 11,585,137

[I’m not Stu]

How has turnout in Orange County been so far?

[Non Swing Voter]

We've crossed 11M

89% reporting

NO 6,984,595 (63.0%)
YES 4,094,764 (37.0%)

= 11,079,359

We've crossed 11.5M

92% reported

NO 7,289,563 (62.9%)
YES 4,295,574 (37.1%)

= 11,585,137

looks like the consensus here is going to prove accurate, it ends up around or above a 25 point Newsom margin. 

[BigSerg]

Riverside And Merced Vote Yes and San Bernandino probably, lol

[BigSerg]

This just wasn't a terribly impressive showing for Rs, there's no way around it. Even the rural places they improved in like Fresno, Merced, Stanislaus had fewer voters than 2018 while Orange had more. A lot of the GOP Hispanic improvement on the edges is just off-year turnout differences common to Cali elections.

yeah this is what we need to remember. If there's a reason OC voted to the left of the Inland Empire it was because the latter's Dem base is almost entirely Hispanic, so poor turnout like in the valley flips counties and sometimes districts without flipping voters.

Denial is beautiful. Anyone remember Oryxslayer's thoughts on South Texas in the 2020 election?

[Oryxslayer]

This just wasn't a terribly impressive showing for Rs, there's no way around it. Even the rural places they improved in like Fresno, Merced, Stanislaus had fewer voters than 2018 while Orange had more. A lot of the GOP Hispanic improvement on the edges is just off-year turnout differences common to Cali elections.

yeah this is what we need to remember. If there's a reason OC voted to the left of the Inland Empire it was because the latter's Dem base is almost entirely Hispanic, so poor turnout like in the valley flips counties and sometimes districts without flipping voters.

Denial is beautiful. Anyone remember Oryxslayer's thoughts on South Texas in the 2020 election?

Are you explicitly referencing something here? Cause I have some very unique views on South Texas. Namely, that as dem primary turnout increasing across the nation in 2020: urban areas, rural areas, minority areas, whites areas - some areas did not increase. Exponential increases are to be expected given the increase in candidates, competition, and just party polarization in general increasing what in Electoral behavior is referred to as 'low-effort political participation activities' like voting.

South Texas primary turnout did not increase at all or barely did. It suggests that the national turnout increase did occur, but that a number of voters decided they no longer wanted to participate in the primary process from 2016. Looking back further, we see Beto doing worse in south Texas than Clinton. This suggests a older trend.

I don't know what there is to say about turnout. You can go onto a county website, download a precinct csv, and see that there are 20% dropoffs between white GOP areas and Dem Hispanic ones. Unfortunately this is normal for Dem parties across the southwest in off-cycles, see TX SD-19 and TX-06 for another example. What we have seen in most post-2020 elections - NM-01, GA runoffs, now CA - is large turnout drops in Hispanic areas and the overall topline returning to as Dem as previously. What this means for the future, I dunno, but I will say that these places did not have South Texas's foreshadowing.


I'm sure you were not expecting this response but I have literally written 6K+ words on the TX2020 election results for DDHQ, another 2K on CA25 at various points, probably another 6K on the recall over these months, and a lot on special elections. The links in the bio, though you may not see everything cause a bunch goes in the newsletter. And I analyze precinct and ethnic data for a living. So nice attempt at a gotcha.

[Niemeyerite]

This just wasn't a terribly impressive showing for Rs, there's no way around it. Even the rural places they improved in like Fresno, Merced, Stanislaus had fewer voters than 2018 while Orange had more. A lot of the GOP Hispanic improvement on the edges is just off-year turnout differences common to Cali elections.

yeah this is what we need to remember. If there's a reason OC voted to the left of the Inland Empire it was because the latter's Dem base is almost entirely Hispanic, so poor turnout like in the valley flips counties and sometimes districts without flipping voters.

Denial is beautiful. Anyone remember Oryxslayer's thoughts on South Texas in the 2020 election?

He's not Russian, he's just a Spanish weirdo who thought Trump would win in a landslide because he outperformed in Miami. He's the one in denial, he belongs to the basket of people who think Trump won the election.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1440829125774643203

[Sir Mohamed]

Yup, OC is gone for the GOP. I predict Newsom will win there at least 52-48% in 2022.

[wbrocks67]

We've crossed 11.5M

92% reported

NO 7,289,563 (62.9%)
YES 4,295,574 (37.1%)

= 11,585,137

93% reported

NO 7,415,392 (62.7%)
YES 4,406,653 (37.3%)

= 11,822,045

Newsom +25.4

[Skill and Chance]

So is No in San Bernardino likely to hold at this point? 

[Matty]

So is No in San Bernardino likely to hold at this point? 

Probably, the last big batch was not very pro-yes


I’m looking at the city level data in OC right now.

Whites in south OC swung heavy in favor of yes, but Irvine’s result was virtually unchanged from the 2020 presidential margin

My guess is that a decent chunk of Asians who voted trump actually voted against recall, due to their support for newsom covid policy.

For example, my precinct here in rancho Santa margarita was only 3 points below Romney’s margin in my precinct in 2012.

But Irvine was way way way to the left

[Skill and Chance]

So is No in San Bernardino likely to hold at this point? 

Probably, the last big batch was not very pro-yes


I’m looking at the city level data in OC right now.

Whites in south OC swung heavy in favor of yes, but Irvine’s result was virtually unchanged from the 2020 presidential margin

My guess is that a decent chunk of Asians who voted trump actually voted against recall, due to their support for newsom covid policy.

For example, my precinct here in rancho Santa margarita was only 3 points below Romney’s margin in my precinct in 2012.

But Irvine was way way way to the left

This will be interesting to watch going forward.  NJ and VA are most Asian and 3rd most Asian states on the East Coast, respectively.   

[Thunder98]

Santa Barbara County vote margin is now the same exact margin as statewide to the tee! Both are No 62.7% - Yes 37.3%!

[DrScholl]

Typically Santa Barbara County mirrors the state result. It mirrors the state geographically with a conservative interior and liberal coast.

[Non Swing Voter]

So when do the blue avatars admit this isn't tightening to 20?  We are pretty much at the point where even if every single remaining ballot goes to "YES" it's mathematically impossible to reach a 20 point margin.

[Sbane]

So when do the blue avatars admit this isn't tightening to 20?  We are pretty much at the point where even if every single remaining ballot goes to "YES" it's mathematically impossible to reach a 20 point margin.

The final margin will be close to No +25. Just an utter waste of time and money.

[MarkD]

Santa Barbara County vote margin is now the same exact margin as statewide to the tee! Both are No 62.7% - Yes 37.3%!

Solano County is at the same margin as well: No vote - 97,780 - 62.7%; Yes vote - 58,248 - 37.3%.

Does anybody know why the number of unprocessed ballots in Los Angeles County went UP drastically about 2-3 days ago? The number of unprocessed ballots used to be under 300,000, and it has gone up by more than 100,000 to nearly 413,000.

[Sbane]

Santa Barbara County vote margin is now the same exact margin as statewide to the tee! Both are No 62.7% - Yes 37.3%!

Solano County is at the same margin as well: No vote - 97,780 - 62.7%; Yes vote - 58,248 - 37.3%.

Does anybody know why the number of unprocessed ballots in Los Angeles County went UP drastically about 2-3 days ago? The number of unprocessed ballots used to be under 300,000, and it has gone up by more than 100,000 to nearly 413,000.

Probably ballots that were mailed by election day but didn't arrive till after the weekend.

[Kamala's side hoe]

So is No in San Bernardino likely to hold at this point? 

Probably, the last big batch was not very pro-yes


I’m looking at the city level data in OC right now.

Whites in south OC swung heavy in favor of yes, but Irvine’s result was virtually unchanged from the 2020 presidential margin

My guess is that a decent chunk of Asians who voted trump actually voted against recall, due to their support for newsom covid policy.

For example, my precinct here in rancho Santa margarita was only 3 points below Romney’s margin in my precinct in 2012.

But Irvine was way way way to the left

This will be interesting to watch going forward.  NJ and VA are most Asian and 3rd most Asian states on the East Coast, respectively.   

It’s possible that the drop off in absolute turnout was mostly from marginal Trump voters. But COVID-19 and perceptions of racism/cultural alienation from the majority are two issues where there is a relative consensus among different Asian ancestry groups, so it seems reasonable for Lower Acela corridor AAPIs to vote similarly D despite minor differences in ethnic origin and socioeconomic status from SoCal.

[Matty]

Something else I have noticed in recent years:

The city of aliso viejo in socal votes significantly more dem than the cities it borders (mission viejo, laguna niguel, etc)

Why?

Is it because of soka university?

[Non Swing Voter]

So when do the blue avatars admit this isn't tightening to 20?  We are pretty much at the point where even if every single remaining ballot goes to "YES" it's mathematically impossible to reach a 20 point margin.

The final margin will be close to No +25. Just an utter waste of time and money.

Agreed.  They either need to make it harder to recall or force sponsoring groups to put up a deposit or something if it fails so epically.  State shouldn't be left on the hook for this kind of nonsense.

[Antonio the Sixth]

No+25 with about a million more votes to go. There's a good chance that it ends up right around Newsom's margin of victory in 2018.

[Crumpets]

Still votes to count, but here's the current change in turnout map from the 2020 presidential election.

[Gass3268]

Late ballots in Los Angeles County are hitting heavy NO.

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1441535320684576769?s=20