CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/steffdaz/status/1410709767366930433

[Minnesota Mike]

Talk show host Wendy Williams calls California's economy a "joke", calls Newsom a joke and endorses Steve Lodge for governor.

Lodge is a conservative man who is the fiance of Wendy's friend, former reality TV star Vicki Gunvalson of Orange County

https://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/real-housewives-vicki-gunvalson-fiance-run-governor

I have no idea who these people are.


Why does every minor "celebrity" feel the need to run for Governor of California?

[Minnesota Mike]

I actually feel really bad for her. Her politics are horsesh*t, but no one deserves to be treated badly for being transgender. I just wish that she, along with every other LGBTQ+ conservative, would realize that the Republican Party is not their ally.

I feel bad for the guy she killed with her car.

[Minnesota Mike]

Caitlyn Jenner Reportedly Pauses Her Governor Campaign to Film Celebrity Big Brother in Australia

https://www.vanityfair.com/style/2021/07/caitlyn-jenner-california-governor-campaign-paused-filming-celebrity-big-brother-australia?utm_source=twitter&mbid=social_twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_brand=vf&utm_social-type=owned

I am beginning to suspect maybe she isn't real serious about her campaign.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1416611678121119746

[Minnesota Mike]

21 Republicans
8 Democrats
2 Greens
1 Libertarian
8 NPP

https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/statewide-elections/2021-recall/notice-to-candidates.pdf

[Minnesota Mike]

It can be hard to extrapolate much from the ballot return numbers, but Republicans generally return their ballots later and lag a lot in early returns. With that said if GOP enthusiasm is similar to that of a regular cycle then the chances of the recall prevailing are low.

Let's wait until more than 1% of ballots are returned before we start trying to draw conclusions.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/Political_Data/status/1430005403421605894

[Minnesota Mike]

I think we’ll see about 13-14 million ballots being returned.

That’s 60-65% of the 22 million RV.

2003 had about 62% participation.

1 million returns so far doesn’t mean much and comparisons to 2020 shouldn’t be taken, because returns will drop off at some point in 1 or 2 weeks compared to 2020.

My guess:

53.6% Remain in office
46.4% Recall him

That would be a bigger turnout than the 2018 midterm (12.5 mill). Maybe with the fact everyone was mailed a ballot but my guess is somewhere between 10-12 mill. The bigger the turnout the better for Newsom, the only way he is recalled is if Democratic turnout craters.

[Minnesota Mike]

Absentee ballot retutun update.


https://www.politicaldata.com/2020-ballot-returns-top-25-searches/

Total ballots returned = 1,556,736*
Dems 884,638 (56.8%)
Reps 332,097 (21.3%)
Ind/Other 340,378 (21.9%)

* total does not quite equal Dems+ Rep + other. Off by 377 voters.

[Minnesota Mike]

Newsom will prevail, but his political future is over at the same time. He will never be president. NEVER.

Even before COVID, he was never gonna be president. NEVER.

Funny that never being President somehow equals having no political future. For the next 5 1/2 years he is going to be governor of California, after that who knows maybe a cabinet position/ Senator or maybe just being an influential private citizen. Sounds like  a political future to me.

[Minnesota Mike]

California could very well be a blue wave in 2022. Nunes, Garcia, Issa, and Steel could very well be given an unfavorable map. Was California in 2010 or 2014 a blue wave?

Not a blue wave but the red wave most of the rest of the nation had never reached the west coast.

[Minnesota Mike]

At this point it feels like anti-recall side is just trying to run up the score as much as possible.

Maybe if this goes down by 20 points we don't have to go through this nonsense every few years.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1436134777623494682

This is  not going to be close.

[Minnesota Mike]

Total ballots returned: 7,916,876
Dems 4,143,960 (52.3%)
Reps 1,981,634 (25.0%)
Ind/Other 1,791,282 (22.7%)

Turnout = Dems (40%), Reps (37%), Ind/Other (27%)

----

Again, for comparison on election eve 2020, it was 12.1M ballots returned, with Dems 50.9%/Reps 24.4%/Ind-Other 24.6%.

Turnout was Dems (61%), Reps (55%), Ind/Other (46%)

Dems were +26.5 on Reps in 2020 on this day, today its +27.3.

Thanks for continuing to post these updates!

For reference, there were about 12.7 million ballots cast in the 2018 gubernatorial election and 17.5 million in the 2020 presidential election.

My guess is we end up with a total turnout of between 11-12 Mil which is on the high end of what I thought when this whole thing started. Without local/legislative races on the ballot it would be no surprise if turnout is just below the 2018 elections.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/OCRegistrar/status/1437869940200153097

(as of about 1:00 PT) Looks like terrible ED turnout in OC.

[Minnesota Mike]

Orange County just added around 24,000 votes; No expands its lead by around 2,000.

I don't think it is a given that the overall gap narrows. Almost all ED votes are in and MIB, even those cast late, are not necessarily Republican.

BTW today's OC vote was 54.5% NO - 45.5% YES. Around 200K left in OC.

[Minnesota Mike]

Riverside is almost surely going to flip now. 

It will be close. There are an estimated 100,000 absentees out and yes trails by 14,000 votes. Yes would need to win the remaining votes 57% to 43%. Since election night Yes has been winning in Riverside 55 - 45%.

[Minnesota Mike]

Unofficial statewide candidate list in California.

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1503887154241441795

[Minnesota Mike]

As of yesterday morning, before any late absentees, Newsom was at 56.3% of the vote, Dems in total 58.28%. Two party Gov vote was Dem 62.79% Rep 37.21%.