CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[_.]

Riverside County Update

(Numbers in parentheses represent changes since yesterday's update)

50.5% (-0.7%) / 322,574 votes (+16,180) / NO
49.5% (+0.7%) / 315,702 votes (+23,558) / YES

Going by the NYT's figures (which stated 598,538 votes marked 81% of votes having been counted), we should expect there to be a final total of ~739K votes in Riverside County. Even with the current total number of votes, there are still some 100K votes left to count in this county.


Alright everybody, it was fun while it lasted, but it looks like Riverside County did indeed vote for the recall.
Honestly, looking at the numbers, it probably was by a non-insignificant margin of between 1% and 3%.
Striking vote-by-mail numbers, but ultimately they will be indecisive as Newsom stays in office.

Riverside's own website says they have 65,000 mail and 5,000 provisionals left to count.

In which case it looks like the NYTimes projection doesn't work, and there does in fact remain a possibility, however slim, of Riverside remaining "No".

If there are 70K votes left to count it looks like "Yes" would need to win 55% of them to win the county.
They outpaced that in their last batch, which "Yes" won by 60%.

I think the final margin is close to Yes+1.0% here honestly

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I am a classical liberal.

I would much rather live under a king

How very 'classically liberal' of you.

Very disgusting stuff here dude. Not at all unexpected of course, but regardless. Though I'm not sure how your own deranged anti-democratic tendencies are relevant here.

Technically speaking Devout, "Democracy without restraint or consideration for constitutional rights and liberties" is basically what the Jim Crow was (though in some of those places whites were a minority and gained power via vote suppression obviously) as you essentially had the white majority (where they were in the majority) depriving the rights of the minority. In any system where you can vote away the rights of another group by a majority vote, that would hardly constitute a democracy as we know it but in many parts of the world this is how democracy often plays out. You allow "free elections", then the crazies or fundies win and start liquidating the people they don't like.

He didn't say he would take a Monarchy over constitutional democracy, he said he would take a constitutionally restrained Monarch over an unrestrained majoritarian dictatorship (can be executive or legislative. The old 3,000 tyrants not a mile awhile line from the time of the Revolutionary War).

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

The Counties to watch tomorrow night:

Los Angeles County: Minority and White Dem turnout
Orange County: Suburban voters
Imperial County: Hispanic Turnout
Santa Clara County: Newsom's home region advantage
Kern County: Hispanic and GOP turnout
Santa Barbara County: Statewide Bellwether
Shasta County: GOP turnout
Yolo County: College voter turnout
San Francisco: Newsom's home turf
Nevada County: Ski Resorts
  

Inyo County: the County's one and only voter.  What will he do?

(Seriously though, thank you for this, Thunder!)

If 2020’s results hold, I think I might be more confused than if Inyo went back to its usual results. I’ll probably be in Bishop on Saturday haha. I’ll see if anything screams “This is Newsom/Biden Land”.

I did go to Bishop today. Basically no one except employees and a few other people were wearing masks. So, I don’t think it’s the source of Inyo’s blue shift. Haven’t looked at precinct data at all.

[Non Swing Voter]

I am a classical liberal.

I would much rather live under a king

How very 'classically liberal' of you.

Very disgusting stuff here dude. Not at all unexpected of course, but regardless. Though I'm not sure how your own deranged anti-democratic tendencies are relevant here.

Technically speaking Devout, "Democracy without restraint or consideration for constitutional rights and liberties" is basically what the Jim Crow was (though in some of those places whites were a minority and gained power via vote suppression obviously) as you essentially had the white majority (where they were in the majority) depriving the rights of the minority. In any system where you can vote away the rights of another group by a majority vote, that would hardly constitute a democracy as we know it but in many parts of the world this is how democracy often plays out. You allow "free elections", then the crazies or fundies win and start liquidating the people they don't like.

He didn't say he would take a Monarchy over constitutional democracy, he said he would take a constitutionally restrained Monarch over an unrestrained majoritarian dictatorship (can be executive or legislative. The old 3,000 tyrants not a mile awhile line from the time of the Revolutionary War).

This is an absurd way of sugarcoating the Jim Crow south, which I guess is the main goal of the GOP's school board takeovers now.  The way things are going, in 2100 some Southern states will teach their kids that it was actually white people who were the slaves.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I knew I shouldn't have put it past Riverside to (potentially) let me down.

Eh, it doesn't matter. If the local GOP wants to crack open wine bottles over a 2,500 vote margin in 2018 & a sub-1% margin for recall in a county that used to vote for Republicans by double-digits as recently as 7 years ago, then by all means.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1439237370449178632


Why California's results are in line with the GOP taking the House in 2022

The problem for Biden is that the exit poll indicates clear leakage in his support from a year ago. In the 2020 general election exit poll, his favorable rating stood at 64% to an unfavorable rating of 34%.

Put another way, his net favorability (favorable minus unfavorable) rating of +30 points a year ago became a +19-point net approval rating this year. Similarly, the exit poll itself showed that recall voters said they voted for Biden by a 26-point margin last year, which is 7 points higher than his net approval rating.

This is largely consistent with what we see in national polling. Biden's net approval rating nationally stands somewhere around -3 points to -4 points. Last year's national exit poll had Biden's net favorability rating at +6 points. He beat Trump by 4.5 points in the popular vote.

That is, Biden's net ratings nationally seem to have taken somewhere in the neighborhood of a high-single digit to a 10-point drop since the election.

Nothing in the California results indicates that the national polls are greatly underestimating Biden's popularity.

It's important to keep in mind, too, that the California results mirror what we've been seeing in special state legislative and federal elections. Democrats have been underperforming Biden's baseline, and by more so recently. So this is not a one-off.

To put this in some historical perspective, California and a lot of the special elections this year look somewhat like what we witnessed in 2017 ahead of the 2018 midterm elections, except in reverse. There were a lot of elections that year in which Republicans won, but Democrats kept doing better than Hillary Clinton did in the same places a year earlier. On a national scale, this translated to Democrats easily winning the House in 2018.

Again, this general pattern matches with what we saw in 2018. Democrats won back the House because more voters disapproved than approved of Trump's job as president, and about 90% of voters cast ballots that reflected either their approval or disapproval of him.

Ahead of 2022, Republicans need only a five-seat gain in the House to win control, and they lost the national House vote by 3 points in 2020. Even the slightest movement toward the Republicans from 2020 would likely mean good things for them.

So according to Harry Enten (former 538).

• Biden's Approvals ratings take a hit by about 10% vs his Favs a year ago.
• The results are consistent with Biden being underwater 3-5% nationally.
• The results are consistent with special state legislative and federal elections so far.
• If this pattern consists, GOP will re-take House [and, perhaps Senate???] 2022.

VA, obviously, will tell us much more, but the polling so far IMO is consistent with things above, even though Youngkin is a pretty muh candidate.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2021/governor/va/virginia_governor_youngkin_vs_mcauliffe-7373.html

[Pericles]

It's not a big underperformnace though so can easily be explained by Newsom being weaker than Biden, it being a recall election and many other possible factors. So Republicans are probably winning but it's silly to act like this election proves it, it's virtually irrelevant to the 2022 midterms.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

It would be silly, indeed, but nobody state that. It's a strawman. He only states that the results are consistent with Biden's national approvals, other elections results so far and GOP re-taking House 2022, if this pattern holds.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The D's have 14 mnths and once the Bills pass Infrastructure and reconciliation and stop the R obstruction, Biden Approvals as General Macarthur said will improve in time to save the Trifecta next yr

Vaccinated Bear and many Rs on this site like Woodbury think Biden Approvals are gonna be stuck at 45% with 14 mnths left, NO

[DrScholl]

The recall results were horrible for Republicans and there is no disputing that. Republicans have to play a lot of defense in the House and persuade Biden voters to support their candidates. The recall showed no surge in Republican enthusiasm. 8-10 years ago a recall would have overperformed presidential numbers by up to 10%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's funny that some users think, like Woodbury and Vaccinated Bear, that in 14 mnths Biden is gonna be at 45% he doesn't praise Proud Boys like Trump and isn't getting impeached like Trump did in 2018, his polls are down due to anxiety over Covid, which will be all but gone after Delta next yr

That's why they're not giving out Booster shots

We are still gonna be in masks, but Covid Pandemic us gonna be nearly gone abd certainly by 2024/ it will be over


But, social distancing and Masks are gonna be our future until our immune system totally eradicate the virus

[Non Swing Voter]

The recall results were horrible for Republicans and there is no disputing that. Republicans have to play a lot of defense in the House and persuade Biden voters to support their candidates. The recall showed no surge in Republican enthusiasm. 8-10 years ago a recall would have overperformed presidential numbers by up to 10%

Exactly.  Newsom looks like he's going to do slightly better than he did in 2018 (a Dem wave year).  No blue avatar has addressed that at all.  They just keep saying wait for the final results.  The numbers aren't moving to a 20 percent margin and certainly not the 10 percent margin they were all predicting. 

[roxas11]

The recall results were horrible for Republicans and there is no disputing that. Republicans have to play a lot of defense in the House and persuade Biden voters to support their candidates. The recall showed no surge in Republican enthusiasm. 8-10 years ago a recall would have overperformed presidential numbers by up to 10%

The California results makes it clear to me that so far 2021 is nothing like 2009

I am just not seeing the evidence of the same kind of massive tea party backlash against Biden that I saw for Obama. Even with Biden losing some support recently it is still nothing compared to the kind of pure hatred that it was seeing from Obama in 2009 or even Trump in 2017

During the 2009 election season by this point we were already starting to see that democrats had a huge turnout problem. The Younger voters and African-Americans who helped catapult Obama and the Democrats to power in 2008 were simply not coming out to vote in 2009 nor would they even show up in 2010

That is not the case at all in 2021 and if anything I would be kind of worried if were the GOP because the Dems actually came out to vote in a off year recall election. The California results suggest that the Dems are so far are not staying home like they did in 2009 and if that continues to be the case going into 2022 than the GOP can kiss their Red Wave fantasy goodbye

[Heebie Jeebie]

The recall results were horrible for Republicans and there is no disputing that. Republicans have to play a lot of defense in the House and persuade Biden voters to support their candidates. The recall showed no surge in Republican enthusiasm. 8-10 years ago a recall would have overperformed presidential numbers by up to 10%

The California results makes it clear to me that so far 2021 is nothing like 2009

I am just not seeing the evidence of the same kind of massive tea party backlash against Biden that I saw for Obama. Even with Biden losing some support recently it is still nothing compared to the kind of pure hatred that it was seeing from Obama in 2009 or even Trump in 2017

During the 2009 election season by this point we were already starting to see that democrats had a huge turnout problem. The Younger voters and African-Americans who helped catapult Obama and the Democrats to power in 2008 were simply not coming out to vote in 2009 nor would they even show up in 2010

That is not the case at all in 2021 and if anything I would be kind of worried if were the GOP because the Dems actually came out to vote in a off year recall election. The California results suggest that the Dems are so far are not staying home like they did in 2009 and if that continues to be the case going into 2022 than the GOP can kiss their Red Wave fantasy goodbye

This is why it's good to elect boring, normie politicians like Joe Biden.  You don't see such wild swings in enthusiasm as when you organize around "historical" candidates like Obama or "outsider" candidates like Trump.

[Matty]

A lot of red avatars on this board seem to be arguing against a straw man. No one at this point is arguing that a red wave is on the horizon.

What people smarter than this board- Harry enter, Dave wasserman, etc- are constantly reminding their followers is that the gop doesn’t need anything remotely approaching a “wave” to win back the house.

The GOP needs to flip 5 seats. 5. Not 20, not even 10. 5.

The Democratic Party needed to flip 23 in 2018

That’s why Harry enten wrote that article above. If the shift from dem congressional percentage to “yes on recall” in numerous Southern California seats holds up nationally, gop is in good position to gain enough seats to take the house


If the GOp needed to flip 15+ seats, you guys would probably be right.

But they need to flip 5.

[DINGO Joe]

LoL at Lassen County

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I am a classical liberal.

I would much rather live under a king

How very 'classically liberal' of you.

Very disgusting stuff here dude. Not at all unexpected of course, but regardless. Though I'm not sure how your own deranged anti-democratic tendencies are relevant here.

Technically speaking Devout, "Democracy without restraint or consideration for constitutional rights and liberties" is basically what the Jim Crow was (though in some of those places whites were a minority and gained power via vote suppression obviously) as you essentially had the white majority (where they were in the majority) depriving the rights of the minority. In any system where you can vote away the rights of another group by a majority vote, that would hardly constitute a democracy as we know it but in many parts of the world this is how democracy often plays out. You allow "free elections", then the crazies or fundies win and start liquidating the people they don't like.

He didn't say he would take a Monarchy over constitutional democracy, he said he would take a constitutionally restrained Monarch over an unrestrained majoritarian dictatorship (can be executive or legislative. The old 3,000 tyrants not a mile awhile line from the time of the Revolutionary War).

This is an absurd way of sugarcoating the Jim Crow south, which I guess is the main goal of the GOP's school board takeovers now.  The way things are going, in 2100 some Southern states will teach their kids that it was actually white people who were the slaves.

Explain to me what I am missing? Why the hell is it sugar coating?

Its always some bs nitpick with you people. The overall point is true, majoritarian rule without restaint can be oppressive.

Just because I don't feel it necessary to write a 15 paragraph response to each post hashing out all the twists, turns, nuances and point to every referenced subject should not be taken as an invitation to insult my intelligence or presume I am too stupid to know what Jim Crow and Segregation involved.

This dynamic was at the very heart of the popular sovereignty argument advanced by Stephen Douglas and Lewis Cass, that "The majority" could vote to allow slavery and thereby deprive a minority of its rights. This argument was rejected by Lincoln and the Republicans at the time.

Now please explain to me how anything I said contradicts or disagrees with any critical point that is essential to understand how Jim Crow operated.

That race was the motivating factor? That's the whole point. The minority can be religious, racial, ethnic, gender or any similar such category in this context. That is the whole damn point of what I said. If the majority in a given town, county, state, or country can oppress them via an election that is majoritarian dictatorship.

[DrScholl]

Republicans will need to gain more than five seats in order to offset potential losses in Biden districts that they cannot gerrymander into Trump ones and ones that they lose in redistricting. Democrats won House seats in California in 2018 that Newsom did not carry then. Plus there were more than likely Yes on Recall voters who don't plan on voting Republican in 2022, so you have to account for that when determining swing.

[E-Dawg]

Riverside County Update

(Numbers in parentheses represent changes since yesterday's update)

50.5% (-0.7%) / 322,574 votes (+16,180) / NO
49.5% (+0.7%) / 315,702 votes (+23,558) / YES

Going by the NYT's figures (which stated 598,538 votes marked 81% of votes having been counted), we should expect there to be a final total of ~739K votes in Riverside County. Even with the current total number of votes, there are still some 100K votes left to count in this county.


Alright everybody, it was fun while it lasted, but it looks like Riverside County did indeed vote for the recall.
Honestly, looking at the numbers, it probably was by a non-insignificant margin of between 1% and 3%.
Striking vote-by-mail numbers, but ultimately they will be indecisive as Newsom stays in office.

Riverside's own website says they have 65,000 mail and 5,000 provisionals left to count.

In which case it looks like the NYTimes projection doesn't work, and there does in fact remain a possibility, however slim, of Riverside remaining "No".

If there are 70K votes left to count it looks like "Yes" would need to win 55% of them to win the county.
They outpaced that in their last batch, which "Yes" won by 60%.

I think the final margin is close to Yes+1.0% here honestly

Wow, I did not see this coming. Looks like the only county flipping from the 2018 gov election will be Merced (from Newsom 2018 to Yes 2021).

[President Johnson]

It's so hilarious John "1000 pound bear" Cox has expressed interest in running again in 2022, per San Diego Union-Tribune. Is this guy's life so boring he has nothing else to do?

[Greedo punched first]

Didn't John Cox win Biden districts CA-39, CA-45, and CA-48?

[Non Swing Voter]

It's so hilarious John "1000 pound bear" Cox has expressed interest in running again in 2022, per San Diego Union-Tribune. Is this guy's life so boring he has nothing else to do?

Looking like yes

[_.]

Swing map between 2018 gubernatorial election and 2021 recall election of all California counties where over 90% of the vote is in according to the New York Times

Red = Moving Democratic
Blue = Moving Republican



Image Link

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hi put know D's can split Cali into 3 Separate states and won't need DC Statehood but it won't happen

[wbrocks67]

I'm a bit confused with how the result lines up with Biden being down 3-5% nationally. If you adjust the exit polls to the likely result (Newsom +26), Biden's approval is about +25/26. That's only 3-4% below his 2020 margin, which would put him about even nationally, not down 3-5%.

The exit poll has Biden +19, but with about a Newsom +20 result, which is... not happening.