CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[NOVA Green]

Santa Barbara County vote margin is now the same exact margin as statewide to the tee! Both are No 62.7% - Yes 37.3%!

Solano County is at the same margin as well: No vote - 97,780 - 62.7%; Yes vote - 58,248 - 37.3%.

Does anybody know why the number of unprocessed ballots in Los Angeles County went UP drastically about 2-3 days ago? The number of unprocessed ballots used to be under 300,000, and it has gone up by more than 100,000 to nearly 413,000.

Probably ballots that were mailed by election day but didn't arrive till after the weekend.

Not unusual at all to see LA County numbers fluctuate wildly since they provide guesstimates to the SoS based upon data modelling and then adjust as actuals come in.

Sbane is pretty tight on the money here, although I could be wrong but from my recollection when I used to follow it more closely is that Provisionals in LA County tend to drop off more so than in most other counties in CA as a % of ballots.

[Matty]

I just learned something I never knew before as I was comparing the results to previous elections

Romney LOST riverside county in 2012?

How did I not know that lol

[NOVA Green]

I just learned something I never knew before as I was comparing the results to previous elections

Romney LOST riverside county in 2012?

How did I not know that lol

It still blows my mind that Dukakis only won LA County 53-47 back in '88, and how San Diego County used to be a Republican stronghold for quite some time after....

[DrScholl]

In 2012 Democrats poured a ton of resources into Riverside County to win CA-36 and CA-41 which most certainly boosted turnout.

[Biden his time]

Damn!

Kern County goes from Yes+16 to Yes+23 with their latest vote dump

Definitely moved the statewide total over by a tenth of a percent or two

[H. Ross Peron]

Still votes to count, but here's the current change in turnout map from the 2020 presidential election.

Lake County seems very late in reporting results.

[Devils30]

If the trends from the recall are relevant at all, we could have a weird 2022 where Dems flip CA-39, Rs flip CA-10 (assuming nothing changes). Of course the new maps will probably be a bit different.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

In 2012 Democrats poured a ton of resources into Riverside County to win CA-36 and CA-41 which most certainly boosted turnout.

And the 31st State Senate district (Which overlaps CA-41). Until 2016/2018 and the 60th State Assembly race, the most political mailers I ever received was for the State Senate race.

I just learned something I never knew before as I was comparing the results to previous elections

Romney LOST riverside county in 2012?

How did I not know that lol

I remember Riverside County flipped after the news sites stopped updating results (NY Times still has it as a Romney county).

Hell, I've seen some sites list Riverside as an Obama/Romney/Clinton county.

[Landslide Lyndon]

So now that the results are almost final do we know if there was any significant Republican swing among Hispanics?

[politicallefty]

Lake County seems very late in reporting results.

I had that on my watchlist of counties that could potentially flip or be really close in the recall. I'm not sure if that'll happen, but I had reasons. It's been trending away from Democrats in recent years. But one of my biggest reasons is that it's been hit by some bad wildfires in recent years.

My last minute prediction isn't looking too far off:

Last minute prediction, but I'll say No by 21%. The momentum really seems to be on Newsom's side. Not at all surprising, but I think the map looks like 2018 except that Orange, Riverside, and Merced Counties are all up in the air. Among the smaller counties, it's possible Lake votes Yes, but I think Nevada County will definitely vote No.

That said, I'm going to be really mad if San Bernardino flips. I didn't see that one getting this close. The others are more reliant on low-propensity voters. In other words, losing Merced and Riverside in this election doesn't really concern or scare me. Sacramento and San Joaquin tend to hold strong, but the southern parts of the Central Valley have a lot of low-propensity voters. The same is true of parts of the Inland Empire, particularly Riverside County.

[wbrocks67]

So now that the results are almost final do we know if there was any significant Republican swing among Hispanics?

It would appear the opposite I think

[wbrocks67]

<95% REPORTED

NO 7,785,693 (62.2%)
YES 4,725,945 (37.8%)

= 12,511,638

Newsom +24.4

We officially pass 2018’s total (12.46M). Newsom is looking to replicate his margin in 2018 (+23. though probably a smidge higher, like +24.0.

Which would mean we need to move the exits 4% to the left.

[Skill and Chance]

So now that the results are almost final do we know if there was any significant Republican swing among Hispanics?

There was a Republican swing, but it was unimpressive.

[E-Dawg]

Are you guys expecting San Bernandino county to flip at this point?

[President Johnson]

Interestingly the California recall and Canada snap election had one thing in common: An election called early to change the current status leading to almost the exact same result as some two years ago.

[BigSerg]

Are you guys expecting San Bernandino county to flip at this point?

Yes

[Sbane]

Are you guys expecting San Bernandino county to flip at this point?

Hard to say at this point. The margin is razor thin but only about 17,500 ballots are remaining. I would lean no.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Are you guys expecting San Bernandino county to flip at this point?

I hope it does flip just so Riverside County doesn't ruin a perfectly good county map again.

I'm still upset about the 2018 map. It looks like a big middle-finger running through SoCal courtesy of my home county.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Still 450k ballots left according to CA SoS. Hopefully most of those are counted by Tuesday.

[Landslide Lyndon]

So now that the results are almost final do we know if there was any significant Republican swing among Hispanics?

There was a Republican swing, but it was unimpressive.

So now that the results are almost final do we know if there was any significant Republican swing among Hispanics?

It would appear the opposite I think

So yes or no?

[wbrocks67]

So now that the results are almost final do we know if there was any significant Republican swing among Hispanics?

There was a Republican swing, but it was unimpressive.

So now that the results are almost final do we know if there was any significant Republican swing among Hispanics?

It would appear the opposite I think

So yes or no?

I could be wrong, but it appears most of the Hispanic/Latino-heavy precincts when overwhelmingly for "NO" on the recall.

[Gass3268]

So now that the results are almost final do we know if there was any significant Republican swing among Hispanics?

There was a Republican swing, but it was unimpressive.

So now that the results are almost final do we know if there was any significant Republican swing among Hispanics?

It would appear the opposite I think

So yes or no?

I could be wrong, but it appears most of the Hispanic/Latino-heavy precincts when overwhelmingly for "NO" on the recall.

Looks like we might have had counter swings between more rural/inland areas and the more urban/costal areas.

[Matty]

So now that the results are almost final do we know if there was any significant Republican swing among Hispanics?

There was a Republican swing, but it was unimpressive.

So now that the results are almost final do we know if there was any significant Republican swing among Hispanics?

It would appear the opposite I think

So yes or no?

I could be wrong, but it appears most of the Hispanic/Latino-heavy precincts when overwhelmingly for "NO" on the recall.

Looks like we might have had counter swings between more rural/inland areas and the more urban/costal areas.

which makes sense. as latinos lose their "racial identity", they will gain a "regional identity"

[BigSerg]

I don't believe in fraud theories, but the extremely slow vote counting makes me doubt the integrity of this election.

[DrScholl]

I don't believe in fraud theories, but the extremely slow vote counting makes me doubt the integrity of this election.

You are contradicting yourself. You cannot say you don't believe in fraud theories and then say you doubt the integrity of this election.