CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[wbrocks67]

....

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1385587301246541830

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1386802857047851009?s=19

Given that CA has, what, 15M+ registered voters, it feels as though 1.5M seems like a very low threshold for a recall.

[wbrocks67]

Caitlyn Jenner said in her CNN interview today that she didn't even vote in 2020. For anything.

Now sis...

[wbrocks67]

Jenner is a hot mess.

https://twitter.com/secupp/status/1392434616791863298

[wbrocks67]

LOL #OOP

40% yes, recall
57% no, do not recall
3% DK

Newsom job approval: 55/35 (adults), 54/42 (LV)

His pandemic response is even higher, at 64-65% approval among adults/LV

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1397508099586633731

[wbrocks67]

This is looking like it's going to be another embarrassing defeat for the CA GOP.

[wbrocks67]

I actually feel really bad for her. Her politics are horsesh*t, but no one deserves to be treated badly for being transgender. I just wish that she, along with every other LGBTQ+ conservative, would realize that the Republican Party is not their ally.

I mean, in theory, yes, i feel bad for her, because yes, no one should be treated like this.

But at the same time, like others have said, what did she expect? This is the party she belongs to and the way they act is not brand new information. And yet she's completely fine with going all in for that party and its voters.

[wbrocks67]

I don't see how CA's COVID restrictions were really worse than any other place? Especially given that CA was really bad, especially at the beginning. Newsom had very high ratings for a while last year, so for the majority of the pandemic voters agreed he was doing the right thing.

And any restrictions happening now/recently are because of the unvaccinated, not because of him, so not sure why voters would punish him for that.

He also was literally doing raffles of free money for Califrornians.

IDK, he's no perfect guy, but there doesn't seem to be a lot of *legitimate* reasons to recall, just typical stupid sh*t that Republicans are going on and on about (which they would do or say to anyone in his position)

[wbrocks67]

Also isn't CA's vaccination rate doing very well?

Again, there seems to be very minute and menial reasons to do this recall. No governor has been perfect on COVID, and the situations that don't seem THAT consequential

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, I feel like once Democratic voters start getting them in the mail they'll realize this is for real.

But I hope Newsom has TV ads ready to go, and surrogates ready to go. I feel like we heard Warren and Harris are both participating?

[wbrocks67]

Let me remind everyone that in last year's Senate election in South Carolina, polls during the final month or two indicated that the two major candidates were headed to a photo finish. I was skeptical of those polls because they greatly contradicted the fundamentals of that state. It turns out my skepticism was well founded, as the final margin was in the double digits. Here, I suspect a similar dynamic may end up playing out - where the incumbent ends up surviving by a larger-than-expected margin due to the fundamentals of the state winning out.

This is my thought as well. I feel like once ballots start getting mailed out (as they were this weekend in some counties), things will start to consolidate.

[wbrocks67]

It’s kind of a bad look to admit the mail in ballots will “save” newsome

Openly confessing what the gop has been saying: mail in ballots are a ploy to help democrats

It’s an abuse. In my view.

Elected officials using taxpayer money to personally solve their turnout problems is an appalling betrayal of public trust.

Governments shouldn’t make it hard to vote, but they also shouldn’t be in the business of maximizing turnout either.

If a Mexican in imperial county doesn’t care about the recall, who cares? If a 21 year old college student doesn’t care, why should the govt try to get them to vote?

Mail in ballots are a ploy to make things easier for the voter. Doesn't make a difference if that voter is GOP or Dem.

[wbrocks67]

Does anyone know when that site that tracks CA mail ins/early voting goes live?

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1425215081114226690

[wbrocks67]

Reposting b/c it messed up before.

45K ballots returned so far.

Dems 27,118
Ind/Other 9,717
Rep 8,748


https://twitter.com/CA_120/status/1427849198716653569

[wbrocks67]

139,127 ballots returned

Democrats 86,139 (61.9%)
Ind/Other 30,054 (21.6%)
Republicans 22,934 (16.5%)

https://twitter.com/CA_120/status/1428375841877069833/photo/1

[wbrocks67]

Nearly 600K ballots have been returned in California already.

Total ballots returned = 578,191
Democrats 334,389 (57.8%)
Ind/Other 128,372 (22.2%)
Republicans 115,430 (20.0%)

https://www.dropbox.com/transfer/AAAAAGsEIwg3FoQZQ0tj5RiXoG5qV9Wr381D1YX38USpHR1C0sb7FTA

[wbrocks67]

Someone found the comparable day in 2020 and turnout is actually pretty damn close to it. Also the breakdown of Dems/Reps/Indies is nearly the identical same

https://twitter.com/JPRognerud/status/1429932387220131877

[wbrocks67]

Nearly 600K ballots have been returned in California already.

Total ballots returned = 578,191
Democrats 334,389 (57.8%)
Ind/Other 128,372 (22.2%)
Republicans 115,430 (20.0%)

https://www.dropbox.com/transfer/AAAAAGsEIwg3FoQZQ0tj5RiXoG5qV9Wr381D1YX38USpHR1C0sb7FTA

Update for the next page

Total ballots returned = 1,076,724
Dems 604,981 (56.2%)
Reps 236,038 (21.9%)
Ind/Other 236,002 (21.9%)

[wbrocks67]

Nearly 600K ballots have been returned in California already.

Total ballots returned = 578,191
Democrats 334,389 (57.8%)
Ind/Other 128,372 (22.2%)
Republicans 115,430 (20.0%)

https://www.dropbox.com/transfer/AAAAAGsEIwg3FoQZQ0tj5RiXoG5qV9Wr381D1YX38USpHR1C0sb7FTA

Update for the next page

Total ballots returned = 1,076,724
Dems 604,981 (56.2%)
Reps 236,038 (21.9%)
Ind/Other 236,002 (21.9%)

Is this good or bad that the Democratic share decreases with each update? From which areas are these votes coming in? I guess the total number is still way, way too small for any estimation how this might go. I still struggle to see how Newsom loses, though the polls aren't that great.

Map:

https://twitter.com/Political_Data/status/1430005403421605894

[wbrocks67]

That recall tracker is really neat, thanks for sharing. Does anyone have a link to an interactive county/precinct map that’s updated daily? (preferably that one)

PoliticalData.com had a thing where you could sign up to get all the info in that tweet sent to your email every day, not sure if it's still up though. I signed up before though, I can share whenever I get it each day

[wbrocks67]

It appears so far that Dems have woken up.

Anything can happen here but would not be surprised if polls end up totally screwing up the LV screen.

[wbrocks67]

Elder makes sense when you understand that this entire sham recall has been pushed by the far right CA GOP, and Elder represents that demo, clearly. So even though it's a minority in CA clearly, he is the one that they're going with

[wbrocks67]

Absentee ballot retutun update.


https://www.politicaldata.com/2020-ballot-returns-top-25-searches/

Total ballots returned = 1,556,736*
Dems 884,638 (56.8%)
Reps 332,097 (21.3%)
Ind/Other 340,378 (21.9%)

* total does not quite equal Dems+ Rep + other. Off by 377 voters.

Update

Total ballots returned = 2,219,666
Dems 1,223,642 (55.1%)
Reps 507,265 (22.9%)
Ind/Other 488,759 (22.0%)

Turnout: Dems (12%), Reps (10%), Ind/Other (7%)

https://twitter.com/Jim_Oberst/status/1430763897401708552/photo/1

[wbrocks67]

Absentee ballot retutun update.


https://www.politicaldata.com/2020-ballot-returns-top-25-searches/

Total ballots returned = 1,556,736*
Dems 884,638 (56.8%)
Reps 332,097 (21.3%)
Ind/Other 340,378 (21.9%)

* total does not quite equal Dems+ Rep + other. Off by 377 voters.

Update

Total ballots returned = 2,219,666
Dems 1,223,642 (55.1%)
Reps 507,265 (22.9%)
Ind/Other 488,759 (22.0%)

Turnout: Dems (12%), Reps (10%), Ind/Other (7%)

https://twitter.com/Jim_Oberst/status/1430763897401708552/photo/1

Total ballots returned = 2,380,359
Dems 1,310,154 (55.1%)
Reps 546,152 (22.9%)
Ind/Other 524,516 (22.0%)

Turnout: Dems (13%), Reps (10%), Ind/Other (7%)