CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[DrScholl]

A Republican who switched to Independent to run would do just as poorly a Republican, because the entire campaign would be centered around said person being a phony independent trying deceive voters.

[DrScholl]

Republicans will waste a ton of money for nothing.

[DrScholl]

Tons of legislators register domain names well in advance. Bonta won't challenge Newsom when he can wait until 2026 for an open seat. If he does get appointed Attorney General he can run for a full term in 2022 and be seat to run for Governor in 2026.

[DrScholl]

Should this recall go through it will just end up being a ridiculous re-fight of the presidential election with a Trump official on the ballot.

[DrScholl]

No is guaranteed to prevail the minute that Trump gets involved.

[DrScholl]

I just read that the cost of this recall is $215 million.

[DrScholl]

If you walk into a den of wolves don't be surprised if you get attacked. Jenner knows exactly who these people are, but she thinks they will make an exception because of her conservative views.

[DrScholl]

"Many people, including myself, disagree with the Governor and his decisions and wish someone different could be governor. Nevertheless," is quite a ringing endorsement

That's kind of not what he said though.

[DrScholl]

I don't know why the legislature simply did not refuse to fund this recall based on the grounds that it is too expensive. If Republicans in GOP states can ignore Medicaid expansion that voted approved then California Democrats could have pulled the plug on the recall for fiscal reasons.

[DrScholl]

I don't know why the legislature simply did not refuse to fund this recall based on the grounds that it is too expensive. If Republicans in GOP states can ignore Medicaid expansion that voted approved then California Democrats could have pulled the plug on the recall for fiscal reasons.

There's no such "fiscal reasons" so drastic to circumvent the CA constitution. Besides, the legislature's fingerprints already are all over the process, specifically to speed it up.

We live in an era where elected officials don't need real reasons to circumvent anything. Like I said if Republicans can ignore Medicaid expansion, Democrats could have ignored this recall and let the GOP cry about it.

Newsom cancels regularly-scheduled 2022 election on the grounds that "it's too expensive" and "I'm gonna win anyway."

Not even the same thing, but you mentioning that a regularly scheduled election is right around the corner proves that this recall is unnecessary. $200 million is far too much to spend on a frivolous rehash of the presidential race (and that is exactly what this is). Republicans having a mental breakdown over not being in control is not a valid reason for a recall and Democrats should have had the guts to refuse to fund it.

[DrScholl]

I don't know why the legislature simply did not refuse to fund this recall based on the grounds that it is too expensive. If Republicans in GOP states can ignore Medicaid expansion that voted approved then California Democrats could have pulled the plug on the recall for fiscal reasons.

There's no such "fiscal reasons" so drastic to circumvent the CA constitution. Besides, the legislature's fingerprints already are all over the process, specifically to speed it up.

We live in an era where elected officials don't need real reasons to circumvent anything. Like I said if Republicans can ignore Medicaid expansion, Democrats could have ignored this recall and let the GOP cry about it.

Newsom cancels regularly-scheduled 2022 election on the grounds that "it's too expensive" and "I'm gonna win anyway."

Not even the same thing, but you mentioning that a regularly scheduled election is right around the corner proves that this recall is unnecessary. $200 million is far too much to spend on a frivolous rehash of the presidential race (and that is exactly what this is). Republicans having a mental breakdown over not being in control is not a valid reason for a recall and Democrats should have had the guts to refuse to fund it.

Yeah, I don't think that you'll find much support for your view that the government of California should have ignored the state constitution and illegally refused to hold an election.

I wasn't looking for support, just stating an opinion. After this recall fails another will be filed and another $200 million will be flushed down the toilet so the law needs to be changed or the legislature needs to find loopholes to stop this nonsense.

[DrScholl]

I don't know why the legislature simply did not refuse to fund this recall based on the grounds that it is too expensive. If Republicans in GOP states can ignore Medicaid expansion that voted approved then California Democrats could have pulled the plug on the recall for fiscal reasons.

There's no such "fiscal reasons" so drastic to circumvent the CA constitution. Besides, the legislature's fingerprints already are all over the process, specifically to speed it up.

We live in an era where elected officials don't need real reasons to circumvent anything. Like I said if Republicans can ignore Medicaid expansion, Democrats could have ignored this recall and let the GOP cry about it.

They wouldn't "cry," they'd sue and win. Now you have to pay the same amount to hold a recall, and you have to pay legal bills. Congratulations?

That just goes to show how fiscally irresponsible the GOP is, but really this is all a moot point since the recall is happening. But I'm pretty sure the GOP will be filing lawsuits when the recall fails based nothing but conspiracies.

[DrScholl]

Elder is on. The judge didn't even think tax returns were necessary at all.

The statute is quite clear. It says tax returns are necessary to be on a *primary* ballot. Moreover, it is in a Division of the code that says "this does not apply to recall elections".

The statute requires a candidate to submit two sets of tax forms, one the original and one with redactions - including some redactions that must be made, and some that may be made.

If a candidate redacts too much, the SOS makes a copy of the original and redacts the required information.

Apparently, Elder redacted too little, and the SOS interpreted that as being non-compliant.

Hopefully, Weber will be sued for publishing individual tax forms while acting outside the law.

Haven't Republicans cost this state enough with the frivolous recall? Over $200 million already spent and now we have out of state interests advocating for the Secretary of State to be sued.

[DrScholl]

I saw a No on Recall ad and it features footage from the insurrection. It also frames the recall as a waste of money by Republicans and says they don't accept election results.

[DrScholl]

The 2018 Insurance Commissioner race is a good map to look at to when trying to predict benchmarks. 2003 was a long time ago and I think it's bit extreme to think the recall is going win 70%+ in Southern California and only narrowly fail in Los Angeles County like back then.

[DrScholl]

It can be hard to extrapolate much from the ballot return numbers, but Republicans generally return their ballots later and lag a lot in early returns. With that said if GOP enthusiasm is similar to that of a regular cycle then the chances of the recall prevailing are low.

[DrScholl]

Patricia Stewart defends Elder
https://mobile.twitter.com/Elex_Michaelson/status/1428875938251477005

There are plenty of instances of one romantic partner having a different experience than another. This doesn't mean that Elder didn't do what the other woman accused him of, it just means that he got a friend to right a positive statement for him.

He's going to push back against this anyway he can because the optics of a black man pulling a gun on a white woman are enough to scare white voters into voting against the recall. The threatening black man stereotype is still very real.

[DrScholl]

What a disgusting racist smear
https://mobile.twitter.com/Erika_D_Smith/status/1428760170411139076

Are you not realizing the columnist is also black or are you just ignoring it because facts don't support your claim?

You realize blacks can be racist right?

"Blacks"? Interesting phrasing. It's not racist to point out that Larry Elder has played the role of the "good black" person that conservatives can feel comfortable liking and whose job is to make them secure being racist. Titling a book "Stupid Black Men" is pretty much playing up to racists.

[DrScholl]

What a disgusting racist smear
https://mobile.twitter.com/Erika_D_Smith/status/1428760170411139076

Are you not realizing the columnist is also black or are you just ignoring it because facts don't support your claim?

You realize blacks can be racist right?

"Blacks"? Interesting phrasing. It's not racist to point out that Larry Elder has played the role of the "good black" person that conservatives can feel comfortable liking and whose job is to make them secure being racist. Titling a book "Stupid Black Men" is pretty much playing up to racists.

Larry Elder is NOT a “good black” whose job it is to make them secure being racist. If you believe that, you are the racist.

I'm not racist for stating what is true. There are plenty of black people who conform to standards to get ahead or fit in with white people. In Elder's case it's very lucrative monetarily for him to do this.

[DrScholl]

Question:

If Newsom wins the recall vote, are they even counting the replacement votes?

To see who would have become the new Governor, or would they skip it?

Those votes will be counted. The last recalls to fail still had the replacement question results tabulated

http://www.joincalifornia.com/election/1995-08-22

Shall Michael Machado be Recalled?
YES: 19,631
NO: 33,390

AD-17
Wayne Flores    Democratic    32%    Loss
Tom Kohlhepp    Libertarian    3.3%    Loss
Ed Simas    Republican    48.6%    Loss
Carole Smith    Republican    16%    Loss

http://www.joincalifornia.com/election/2008-06-03

Shall Jeff Denham be recalled (removed) from the Office of State Senator, District 12?
YES: 20,043
NO: 61,309

SD-12
Simon Salinas    Democratic    100%    Loss

[DrScholl]

The polls are probably using too tight of a likely voter screen.

[DrScholl]

Outside of San Diego no one really knows who Faulconer is. Elder has been on the radio for years and California Republicans have always listened to a lot of radio. Plus there is that fact that Republicans tend to prefer more inexperienced and celebrity candidates nowadays.

[DrScholl]

What's the deal with Elder? The guy doesn't have any real qualifications for the job and reading his political positions on Wikipedia page tells me that he's a far-right nutjob. He'd not represent a majority of Californians.

If not for him and Dennis Prager, we might not have had South Park.

https://mobile.twitter.com/larryelder/status/977368935795273728

So he has no qualifications. Got it.

[DrScholl]

The NorCal/SoCal divide is really about Northern California Democrats being better organized to get support for running statewide. The Democratic base in the past was mostly northern and that still is somewhat true when it comes to who can build up support to run statewide. I've never heard anyone complain about SoCal not having enough clout over NorCal.

[DrScholl]

I just saw an Elder ad where he said "Do I look like a white supremacist?". Seems worse than "I am not a witch."