CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Greedo punched first]

Would Newsom still easily win if he faces another Democrat?

[Greedo punched first]

I doubt Faulconer runs. What other Republican might run?

[Greedo punched first]

What are the odds of Newsom being recalled and losing to another Democrat?

[Greedo punched first]

Will the gubernatorial runoff more likely be D vs R or D vs D?

[Greedo punched first]

A majority yes vote and a split Democratic vote could lead to a Republican governor even if Democrats get a large majority of the vote.

[Greedo punched first]

Guess who has a better chance of becoming mayor of Eureka than Jenner does at becoming governor?

[Greedo punched first]

Guess who has a better chance of becoming mayor of Eureka than Jenner does at becoming governor?

Kevin de Leon?

Correct!

[Greedo punched first]

What happens if you vote for the recall but for no gubernatorial replacement?

[Greedo punched first]

What happens if you vote for the recall but for no gubernatorial replacement?

I would assume the 1st question is still counted. Interestingly, the total number of votes in the 2003 recall almost match each other.

as a note, before the 2003 recall, they struck down a provision that meant if you voted no on recall, you had no vote in the replacement.

I know that. But what happens if you vote yes, but don't vote for a replacement candidate? Does the "yes" vote still count?

[Greedo punched first]

Will any counties vote yes from the left?

[Greedo punched first]

Does Newsom survive, or do enough Democrats vote to recall?

[Greedo punched first]

Recall elections aren’t officially nonpartisan. If Newsom survives, does he run for a second term?

[Greedo punched first]

Recall elections aren’t officially nonpartisan. If Newsom survives, does he run for a second term?

I mean, surviving a recall a year before re-election is a pretty good mandate, so yes. 

What if he just barely survives? It makes him look beatable.

[Greedo punched first]

Recall elections aren’t officially nonpartisan. If Newsom survives, does he run for a second term?

I mean, surviving a recall a year before re-election is a pretty good mandate, so yes. 

What if he just barely survives? It makes him look beatable.

Then the Democrats should nominate someone else regardless of whether or not Newsom runs. 2022 will be redder than 2021 and they don't need someone who barely won in such a blue state. I'm sure there will be more than enough Democrats who can run to become CA's next governor. That's if Newsom survives by under 5%. If he survives by over 5% he may still not be a great candidate but he can still probably make it. Personally, though, if he makes it by less than 10 points it should be grounds for someone else to run, because even 10 points is very underwhelming for a California Democrat, and 10 points is something most unknown Democrats can probably make.

I think California 2022 will be bluer than 2021.

[Greedo punched first]

California could very well be a blue wave in 2022. Nunes, Garcia, Issa, and Steel could very well be given an unfavorable map. Was California in 2010 or 2014 a blue wave?

[Greedo punched first]

If the recall succeeds what does the replacement county map look like?

[Greedo punched first]

If Newsom is recalled and Feinstein dies, the legislature could strip the governor of the power to appoint a replacement. Would this require an amendment to the state constitution or just a new statute?

[Greedo punched first]

Will 2022 be Newsom vs. R or Newsom vs. D?

[Greedo punched first]

Since when did the Green Party become relevant statewide in California?

[Greedo punched first]

Who might Newsom face in 2022, a House Republican who gets drawn out?

[Greedo punched first]

Ironically getting attention from national Republicans is probably the single best way to motivate California Dems to vote.

The way Republicans have been campaigning is like if the Democrats had Nancy Pelosi, AOC and Hillary Clinton lead the effort to flip Kentucky.

This is why I expect Republicans to continue to implode in blue states and states that are trending towards Democrats. I don't believe in the "redux" talk that is so prominent on Atlas, but it does seem like Republicans are falling into a similar trap that Democrats did in 2016. That is, they barely lost a winnable election so they blamed it on fraud and doubled down on everything that alienated the voters that shifted away from them, only to wonder why they keep losing ground in their old strongholds.

You think CA-GOV and/or CA-SEN in 2022 will be D vs. D?

[Greedo punched first]

I'm sorry if this previously came up (this is a long thread), but something I've been wondering: will the results of the replacement question be tallied and publicly released even if the recall fails?

I believe they will be released.

[Greedo punched first]

Might Paffrath make the 2022 runoff if he does well in the replacement election?

[Greedo punched first]

Final Prediction:



Oppose - 52%
Support - 48%

What might the county map look like on the replacement question?

[Greedo punched first]

My predictions changed to No +10-14 points
Momentum is clearly on Newsom's side Elder has mobilized Dems in a big way still a 10-14 point victory is an embarrassing margin in state as blue as Cali. The replacement candidate map will look like a mess for sure Elder will probably win almost every county because of how many dems are gonna leave it blank

What counties does Elder lose? Does he lose any?