COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Trump claims 99% of COVID-19 cases are "totally harmless".

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-2020-salute-america/

Jobs and companies are coming back to our country like never before.  The power of tariffs being imposed on foreign lands that took advantage of the United States for decades and decades have enabled us to make great trade deals where there were none.  Tens of billions of dollars are now paid to the United States Treasury by the same countries.

But there and then we got hit by the virus that came from China.  And we’ve made a lot of progress; our strategy is moving along well.  It goes out in one area, and rears back its ugly face in another area.  But we’ve learned a lot.  We’ve learned how to put out the flame.  We’ve made ventilators where there were none by the tens of thousands, to the point that we have far more than we need, and we are now distributing them to many foreign countries, as a gesture of goodwill.

Likewise, testing — there were no tests for a new virus, but now we have tested over 40 million people.  But by so doing, we show cases, 99 percent of which are totally harmless.  Results that no other country will show, because no other country has testing that we have — not in terms of the numbers or in terms of the quality.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

So is anyone else already making big plans for when the pandemic ends?

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1279906540791779334

So China Bad but he's going to believe their numbers and media over ours.

[jimrtex]

It is illegal for those between 18-21 to go to bars.

What?? I never got that memo.  

You may have had a special ID.

49% of new COVID-19 cases in Dane County Wisconsin (i.e. Madison, and University of Wisconsin) were 18-25. I suspect that a large number of those were infected at bars near to the campus, and some were there to loudly brag (because the bar was loud, and they were half drunk, and they were excited about being at the protest after 3 months of classes on zoom) to whomever they were trying to impress.

[emailking]

It's not illegal to go to a bar if you're under 21. The bar might not allow under 21 to enter so they don't have to ID you when you order a drink.

[Brittain33]

So is anyone else already making big plans for when the pandemic ends?

No, because I don't know when that will be nor what the end will look like, and expect the end to be a long and uneven tapering off of risk. I'm not anticipating any serious travel or big celebrations until several months after a vaccine has been in use and proven to be effective and not too dangerous, and God only know what kinds of purchases or spending will be possible after such a long shutdown.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://mobile.twitter.com/TODAYshow/status/1279947688721686528

[Koharu]

It is illegal for those between 18-21 to go to bars.

What?? I never got that memo.  

You may have had a special ID.

49% of new COVID-19 cases in Dane County Wisconsin (i.e. Madison, and University of Wisconsin) were 18-25. I suspect that a large number of those were infected at bars near to the campus, and some were there to loudly brag (because the bar was loud, and they were half drunk, and they were excited about being at the protest after 3 months of classes on zoom) to whomever they were trying to impress.

You completely ignored the data I shared from Dane county that shows only a tiny fraction of people who tested positive were at protests. The bar crowd and the protest crowd are very different. That's why I asked for proof re: elsewhere, as your conjecture doesn't match the available information in Dane county.

[Badger]

These states that are shutting down again had better have learned their lesson about "saving the economy" and minimizing the "authoritarianism". The more times they open and shut, the worse off the economy will be. Close early and stay closed until the right time without rushing it.

How do you know when the time is right?

My two cents? Likely when the public health experts with a lifetime's experience in the field say so, not when we hear it from the moron solely concerned with re-election who peddles sunlamps and injecting bleach as a cure-all. Or from his many enablers.

[Beet]

Does anyone have an explanation for how Qatar has 100,000 cases but only 128 deaths?

That’s a CFR of just over 0.1%, which seems impossibly low even if they are successfully identifying every infection.  (For comparison, the CFR is around 4% in the US and 15% in the UK.)

Aren’t the majority of infections in very young and strong migrant workers?
Maybe that would partially explain it, as that is the case with Singapore and they also have a low death rate.
There is also the possibility deaths are being covered up...

I would imagine they have top notch health facilities too.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 7/5 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/10-5/16 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/17-5/23 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/24-5/30 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/31-6/6 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 6/7-6/13 in this post>

6/14: <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,162,144 (+19,920 | Δ Change: ↓21.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)
• Deaths: 117,853 (+326 | Δ Change: ↓53.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)

6/15:

• Cases: 2,182,950 (+20,806 | Δ Change: ↑4.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.96%)
• Deaths: 118,283 (+430 | Δ Change: ↑31.90% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

6/16:

• Cases: 2,208,400 (+25,450 | Δ Change: ↑22.32% | Σ Increase: ↑1.17%)
• Deaths: 119,132 (+849 | Δ Change: ↑97.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)

6/17:

• Cases: 2,234,471 (+26,071 | Δ Change: ↑2.44% | Σ Increase: ↑1.18%)
• Deaths: 119,941 (+809 | Δ Change: ↓4.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)

6/18:

• Cases: 2,263,651 (+29,180 | Δ Change: ↑11.93% | Σ Increase: ↑1.31%)
• Deaths: 120,688 (+747 | Δ Change: ↓7.66% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)

6/19:

• Cases: 2,297,190 (+33,539 | Δ Change: ↑14.94% | Σ Increase: ↑1.48%)
• Deaths: 121,407 (+719 | Δ Change: ↓3.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

6/20:

• Cases: 2,330,578 (+33,388 | Δ Change: ↓0.45% | Σ Increase: ↑1.45%)
• Deaths: 121,980 (+573 | Δ Change: ↓20.31% | Σ Increase: ↑0.47%)

6/21: <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,356,657 (+26,079 | Δ Change: ↓21.89% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
• Deaths: 122,247 (+267 | Δ Change: ↓53.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

6/22:

• Cases: 2,388,153 (+31,496 | Δ Change: ↑20.77% | Σ Increase: ↑1.34%)
• Deaths: 122,610 (+363 | Δ Change: ↑35.96% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

6/23:

• Cases: 2,424,168 (+36,015 | Δ Change: ↑14.35% | Σ Increase: ↑1.51%)
• Deaths: 123,473 (+863 | Δ Change: ↑137.74% | Σ Increase: ↑0.70%)
• Death toll inflated by older counts recently dumped by DE

6/24:

• Cases: 2,462,554 (+38,386 | Δ Change: ↑6.18% | Σ Increase: ↑1.58%)
• Deaths: 124,281 (+808 | Δ Change: ↓6.37% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)

6/25:

• Cases: 2,504,588 (+42,034 | Δ Change: ↑9.50% | Σ Increase: ↑1.71%)
• Deaths: 126,780 (+2,499 | Δ Change: ↑209.28% | Σ Increase: ↑2.01%)
• Death toll inflated by older counts recently dumped by NJ

6/26:

• Cases: 2,552,940 (+48,352 | Δ Change: ↑15.03% | Σ Increase: ↑1.93%)
• Deaths: 127,640 (+860 | Δ Change: ↓65.59% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)
• Death Δ Change affected by older counts recently dumped by NJ on 6/25

6/27:

• Cases: 2,596,537 (+43,597 | Δ Change: ↓9.83% | Σ Increase: ↑1.71%)
• Deaths: 128,152 (+512 | Δ Change: ↓40.47% | Σ Increase: ↑0.40%)

6/28: <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,637,077 (+40,540 | Δ Change: ↓7.01% | Σ Increase: ↑1.56%)
• Deaths: 128,437 (+285 | Δ Change: ↓44.34% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

6/29:

• Cases: 2,681,802 (+44,725 | Δ Change: ↑10.32% | Σ Increase: ↑1.70%)
• Deaths: 128,779 (+342 | Δ Change: ↑20.00% | Σ Increase: ↑0.27%)

6/30:

• Cases: 2,727,853 (+46,051 | Δ Change: ↑2.96% | Σ Increase: ↑1.72%)
• Deaths: 130,122 (+1,343 | Δ Change: ↑292.69% | Σ Increase: ↑1.04%)

7/1:

• Cases: 2,779,953 (+52,100 | Δ Change: ↑13.14% | Σ Increase: ↑1.91%)
• Deaths: 130,798 (+676 | Δ Change: ↓49.66% | Σ Increase: ↑0.52%)

7/2:

• Cases: 2,837,189 (+57,236 | Δ Change: ↑9.86% | Σ Increase: ↑2.06%)
• Deaths: 131,485 (+687 | Δ Change: ↑1.62% | Σ Increase: ↑0.53%)

7/3:

• Cases: 2,890,588 (+53,399 | Δ Change: ↓6.70% | Σ Increase: ↑1.88%)
• Deaths: 132,101 (+616 | Δ Change: ↓10.33% | Σ Increase: ↑0.47%)

7/4 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 2,935,770 (+45,182 | Δ Change: ↓15.39% | Σ Increase: ↑1.56%)
• Deaths: 132,318 (+212 | Δ Change: ↓65.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.16%)

7/5 (Today): <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,982,928 (+47,158 | Δ Change: ↑4.37% | Σ Increase: ↑1.61%)
• Deaths: 132,569 (+251 | Δ Change: ↑18.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.19%)

[Dr. Arch]

I can't remember the last time that we had a double increase on a Sunday, but here we are.

[T'Chenka]

RIP Nick Cordero.

That woman at Target on the last page was EXTREMELY unhinged. Wow. I know many mentally ill people personally, and she's not what I'd call a "mild case".

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The lead story on the Washington Post website all night has been “Seven-day average case total in the U.S. sets record for 27th straight day”

The opening sentence of the story repeats the claim in the headline without elaboration:

Officials in states with surging coronavirus cases issued dire warnings and blamed outbreaks on early reopenings Sunday as the seven-day average for daily new cases in the United States reached a record high for the 27th straight day.

I don’t understand how this 27-day statistic can be true.  27 days ago was June 8th; worldometers lists the 7-day average of cases on June 8 as 21,746.  Not only is this nowhere close to the record up to that point (32,434 on April 10), but the number actually dropped slightly on June 9th (to 21,289).  Even if WaPo is using a different data source, I can’t fathom how they would interpret the 7-day average case number of June 8 or 9 to be anwhere close to a record.  It looks like the current surge first set a new record on June 24, which is just 11 days ago.  What am I missing here?

[Hammy]

I can't remember the last time that we had a double increase on a Sunday, but here we are.

Wasn't that a result of most places not reporting numbers for July 4?

[Brittain33]

RIP Nick Cordero.

That woman at Target on the last page was EXTREMELY unhinged. Wow. I know many mentally ill people personally, and she's not what I'd call a "mild case".

It’s kind of terrible that Twitter is amplifying this story of someone who is clearly mentally ill.

[jimrtex]

It is illegal for those between 18-21 to go to bars.

What?? I never got that memo.  

You may have had a special ID.

49% of new COVID-19 cases in Dane County Wisconsin (i.e. Madison, and University of Wisconsin) were 18-25. I suspect that a large number of those were infected at bars near to the campus, and some were there to loudly brag (because the bar was loud, and they were half drunk, and they were excited about being at the protest after 3 months of classes on zoom) to whomever they were trying to impress.

You completely ignored the data I shared from Dane county that shows only a tiny fraction of people who tested positive were at protests. The bar crowd and the protest crowd are very different. That's why I asked for proof re: elsewhere, as your conjecture doesn't match the available information in Dane county.

What evidence is there that the bar crowd and protest crowd do not overlap?

The bars that were connected to outbreaks in Minnesota were adjacent to the University of Minnesota campus in Minneapolis, and near to the Minnesota State University campus in Mankato.

The data was kind of weird in that there was a time overlap, but they were reported separately, and they did not report all persons. For example, for June 1-24 there were 622 persons who tested positive, but only 507 persons who answered the survey.

There was another data set from June 13-June 26 with 614 persons. So you remove 12 days and add two days and have the same number of cases.

This has some interesting data. Be sure to click on the arrows below the charts to scroll through additional charts.

Dane County Covid 19 Dashboard

The overall case chart looked like it would if Scott Walker were still governor.

Other points of interest. Both tests and persons tested are reported. About 20% of tests are a repeated victim.

If you compare the number of hospitalized with those tested positive, the hospitalization rate for

20-29 is 2.0%
30-39 is 7.3%
40-49 is 8.5%
50-59 is 15.6%
60-69 is 28.4%
70-79 is 43.8%
80-89 is 60.4%
90+ is 67.0%

This would suggest that there are large numbers of 20-29 who were never tested because they had very mild symptoms, or were asymptomatic.

[Dr. Arch]

I can't remember the last time that we had a double increase on a Sunday, but here we are.

Wasn't that a result of most places not reporting numbers for July 4?

All states reported on 7/4.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I can't remember the last time that we had a double increase on a Sunday, but here we are.

Wasn't that a result of most places not reporting numbers for July 4?

All states reported on 7/4.

According to Worldometers, five states did not report at all on 7/4, along with San Diego and Los Angeles counties

NOTES:

Minnesota: "In observance of the Fourth of July holiday, we will not be updating the data on this page on Saturday, July 4. Updates will resume on Sunday, July 5" [source]

Louisiana: "LDH will observe Independence Day and not update the COVID-19 dashboard on July 4. Reporting will resume July 5." [source]

California: San Diego County: "In observance of the holiday, data will not be updated on July 4th, data updates will resume on July 5th" [source] This is in addition to Los Angeles County.

NH, KY, RI: no reports today

[Dr. Arch]

I can't remember the last time that we had a double increase on a Sunday, but here we are.

Wasn't that a result of most places not reporting numbers for July 4?

All states reported on 7/4.

According to Worldometers, five states did not report at all on 7/4, along with San Diego and Los Angeles counties

NOTES:

Minnesota: "In observance of the Fourth of July holiday, we will not be updating the data on this page on Saturday, July 4. Updates will resume on Sunday, July 5" [source]

Louisiana: "LDH will observe Independence Day and not update the COVID-19 dashboard on July 4. Reporting will resume July 5." [source]

California: San Diego County: "In observance of the holiday, data will not be updated on July 4th, data updates will resume on July 5th" [source] This is in addition to Los Angeles County.

NH, KY, RI: no reports today

Okay, almost all states. We'll see next Sunday.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1280209106826125313

From Johns Hopkins, today:




Edit: added link

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1280209143975084032

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1280209106826125313

From Johns Hopkins, today:

It's almost like this guy is desperate to lose in November. Is he really too stupid to read or let someone check the numbers?

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1280209106826125313

From Johns Hopkins, today:

It's almost like this guy is desperate to lose in November. Is he really too stupid to read or let someone check the numbers?

He simply doesn't care. As far as he's concerned his base are the only real Americans and thus the only people that vote, and everybody else, along with any facts that are contrary to his bubble, are the enemy.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

From Johns Hopkins, today:




Edit: added link

This graph makes some very strange choices, as it is comparing only countries currently most affected by covid, but using data from the entire course of the pandemic.

If you just want to examine fatality rates over the entire history of covid-19, you should probably be comparing the countries most affected over its entire history. This would certainly include Italy and France and Spain, all of which have much higher CFRs than the US.

On the other hand, if you just want to look at countries currently most affected, you should probably use more recent data.  CFRs have been dropping pretty universally as treatment and testing have improved, and the pandemic moves to younger populations.  Countries like Italy and Spain have a much higher CFR than all the South American countries listed below because they saw the bulk of their deaths during a time of less treatment and testing.  

The US has seen case surges across different eras of the pandemic.  Back in April, our CFR was 7-8% (~2200 daily deaths on ~30,000 daily cases).  In the last week or so, that CFR is much closer to 1% (~500 daily deaths on ~50,000 daily cases).  So on this metric, the US would also compare pretty favorably to other countries currently experiencing a surge in infections.