COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I'd really like to see the partisan difference in COVID infections and deaths.  You can't figure out individual partisan leans, but maybe divide it up into counties/precincts and weight by Trump/Clinton vote %.

My guess?

The initial wave mostly hit Clinton voters, because it was spreading most quickly in big cities with very concentrated populations.

But this "second wave" (not really the second wave, we still have that to look forward to) is going to be 70-80% Trump voters.  Those are the people not wearing masks.  Those are the people not socially distancing.  Those are the people refusing to take this seriously.  And those are the people who are going to get infected and die.  And thanks to them, we won't be able to re-open.  Thanks to them, plenty of their friends and family will also get sick and die.  Ironically, thanks to them, Trump's odds of re-election will continue to dwindle as the crisis continues.

I don't disagree with the general thrust of this argument, but I question the magnitude of its impact. A lot of infections are going to be among people who just don't pay attention to the news at all, who are probably more likely to be apolitical nonvoters, especially young people who don't vote.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/secupp/status/1278920467638779905

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/GeoffRBennett/status/1279167084023500801

Is Trump trying to lose this election

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/GeoffRBennett/status/1279167084023500801

Is Trump trying to lose this election

He doesn't care at this point--he's probably figured out Dems are less likely to vote the longer this goes on.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

At this point, what other choice do we have?

I don't like it either, but I've had to learn to accept it until it can be treated, and move on.

[Progressive Pessimist]

At this point, what other choice do we have?

I don't like it either, but I've had to learn to accept it until it can be treated, and move on.

But there's a way to say it without being dismissive and sounding like we shouldn't even bother to try and prevent the virus' spread anymore.

[Beet]

Interesting. A group called the Frontline Covid-19 Critical Care Alliance, has "based on available research, the experience in China reflected by the Shanghai expert commission, and their decades-long professional experiences in Intensive Care Units around the country", developed something called the "MATH+" treatment protocol. This "MATH+" protocol may be responsible for the falling death rates, to the extent where one doctor at a hospital with a 100% success rate since beginning the protocol is now saying that "nobody needs to die of Covid-19."

Buried in this article with a negative headline:
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-houston-doctor-says-were-heading-to-pure-hell-as-covid-19-cases-spike-in-texas-12020307

[Tekken_Guy]

At this point, what other choice do we have?

I don't like it either, but I've had to learn to accept it until it can be treated, and move on.

But there's a way to say it without being dismissive and sounding like we shouldn't even bother to try and prevent the virus' spread anymore.

Agreed. We”re going to have to find a way to tell people “this will take a while, you’re going to have to make some changes” and “we give up on fighting the virus”.

This could motivate a lot of people to re-embrace an FDR-style welfare state. The GOP only wine by running on cultural issues and reducing bread-and-butter ones to vague “low taxes” and “repeal Obamacare” platitudes.

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/GeoffRBennett/status/1279167084023500801

Is Trump trying to lose this election

He doesn't care at this point--he's probably figured out Dems are less likely to vote the longer this goes on.

So...we have to live with a genocide by negligence?
Sorry, that’s a bit hard for me to swallow.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/GeoffRBennett/status/1279167084023500801

Is Trump trying to lose this election

No. He's given up on winning it. Instead, he's creating as much chaos as possible in order to increase his chances of getting away with stealing it.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Interesting. A group called the Frontline Covid-19 Critical Care Alliance, has "based on available research, the experience in China reflected by the Shanghai expert commission, and their decades-long professional experiences in Intensive Care Units around the country", developed something called the "MATH+" treatment protocol. This "MATH+" protocol may be responsible for the falling death rates, to the extent where one doctor at a hospital with a 100% success rate since beginning the protocol is now saying that "nobody needs to die of Covid-19."

Buried in this article with a negative headline:
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-houston-doctor-says-were-heading-to-pure-hell-as-covid-19-cases-spike-in-texas-12020307

A few more article published today on improved treatment and reduced death rates (from NYT and WP):

More Covid-19 Patients are surviving ventilators int he ICU

U.S. Coronavirus Cases Are Rising Sharply, but Deaths Are Still Down

I really do believe that the majority of patients who would have died from covid three months ago will now end up surviving.  There's no one factor contributing a huge amount, but early detection, improved routine procedures, basic medical experience with the virus, greater space and equipment capacity, remdesivir, steroids, plasma, and cocktails constituting multiple treatments are coming together to produce astounding results.

(The NYT article does say there's no evidence of a less lethal virus mutation, so I remain doubtful of this factor.)

[GP270watch]

All the things you posted are related to time. That's why we were supposed to quarantine seriously to flatten the curve and buy time.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 7/3 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/10-5/16 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/17-5/23 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/24-5/30 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/31-6/6 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 6/7-6/13 in this post>

6/14: <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,162,144 (+19,920 | Δ Change: ↓21.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)
• Deaths: 117,853 (+326 | Δ Change: ↓53.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)

6/15:

• Cases: 2,182,950 (+20,806 | Δ Change: ↑4.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.96%)
• Deaths: 118,283 (+430 | Δ Change: ↑31.90% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

6/16:

• Cases: 2,208,400 (+25,450 | Δ Change: ↑22.32% | Σ Increase: ↑1.17%)
• Deaths: 119,132 (+849 | Δ Change: ↑97.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)

6/17:

• Cases: 2,234,471 (+26,071 | Δ Change: ↑2.44% | Σ Increase: ↑1.18%)
• Deaths: 119,941 (+809 | Δ Change: ↓4.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)

6/18:

• Cases: 2,263,651 (+29,180 | Δ Change: ↑11.93% | Σ Increase: ↑1.31%)
• Deaths: 120,688 (+747 | Δ Change: ↓7.66% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)

6/19:

• Cases: 2,297,190 (+33,539 | Δ Change: ↑14.94% | Σ Increase: ↑1.48%)
• Deaths: 121,407 (+719 | Δ Change: ↓3.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

6/20:

• Cases: 2,330,578 (+33,388 | Δ Change: ↓0.45% | Σ Increase: ↑1.45%)
• Deaths: 121,980 (+573 | Δ Change: ↓20.31% | Σ Increase: ↑0.47%)

6/21: <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,356,657 (+26,079 | Δ Change: ↓21.89% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
• Deaths: 122,247 (+267 | Δ Change: ↓53.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

6/22:

• Cases: 2,388,153 (+31,496 | Δ Change: ↑20.77% | Σ Increase: ↑1.34%)
• Deaths: 122,610 (+363 | Δ Change: ↑35.96% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

6/23:

• Cases: 2,424,168 (+36,015 | Δ Change: ↑14.35% | Σ Increase: ↑1.51%)
• Deaths: 123,473 (+863 | Δ Change: ↑137.74% | Σ Increase: ↑0.70%)
• Death toll inflated by older counts recently dumped by DE

6/24:

• Cases: 2,462,554 (+38,386 | Δ Change: ↑6.18% | Σ Increase: ↑1.58%)
• Deaths: 124,281 (+808 | Δ Change: ↓6.37% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)

6/25:

• Cases: 2,504,588 (+42,034 | Δ Change: ↑9.50% | Σ Increase: ↑1.71%)
• Deaths: 126,780 (+2,499 | Δ Change: ↑209.28% | Σ Increase: ↑2.01%)
• Death toll inflated by older counts recently dumped by NJ

6/26:

• Cases: 2,552,940 (+48,352 | Δ Change: ↑15.03% | Σ Increase: ↑1.93%)
• Deaths: 127,640 (+860 | Δ Change: ↓65.59% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)
• Death Δ Change affected by older counts recently dumped by NJ on 6/25

6/27:

• Cases: 2,596,537 (+43,597 | Δ Change: ↓9.83% | Σ Increase: ↑1.71%)
• Deaths: 128,152 (+512 | Δ Change: ↓40.47% | Σ Increase: ↑0.40%)

6/28: <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,637,077 (+40,540 | Δ Change: ↓7.01% | Σ Increase: ↑1.56%)
• Deaths: 128,437 (+285 | Δ Change: ↓44.34% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

6/29:

• Cases: 2,681,802 (+44,725 | Δ Change: ↑10.32% | Σ Increase: ↑1.70%)
• Deaths: 128,779 (+342 | Δ Change: ↑20.00% | Σ Increase: ↑0.27%)

6/30:

• Cases: 2,727,853 (+46,051 | Δ Change: ↑2.96% | Σ Increase: ↑1.72%)
• Deaths: 130,122 (+1,343 | Δ Change: ↑292.69% | Σ Increase: ↑1.04%)

7/1:

• Cases: 2,779,953 (+52,100 | Δ Change: ↑13.14% | Σ Increase: ↑1.91%)
• Deaths: 130,798 (+676 | Δ Change: ↓49.66% | Σ Increase: ↑0.52%)

7/2 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 2,837,189 (+57,236 | Δ Change: ↑9.86% | Σ Increase: ↑2.06%)
• Deaths: 131,485 (+687 | Δ Change: ↑1.62% | Σ Increase: ↑0.53%)

7/3 (Today):

• Cases: 2,890,588 (+53,399 | Δ Change: ↓6.70% | Σ Increase: ↑1.88%)
• Deaths: 132,101 (+616 | Δ Change: ↓10.33% | Σ Increase: ↑0.47%)

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Brace yourselves. There's a note on Worldometers that says Los Angeles County will not be reporting this weekend. So when we get an extra 10,000 cases out of nowhere on Monday or Tuesday, we'll know why.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

All the things you posted are related to time. That's why we were supposed to quarantine seriously to flatten the curve and buy time.

I totally agree with that!

That’s why I don’t understand why more people who were advocating lockdowns aren’t looking at the current data and essentially declaring victory.
The purpose of the lockdowns was not to reduce the number of infections in the long term.  The purpose was to delay the inevitable surge in infections until we had better testing and treatment.

We now have much better testing and treatment, and this is going to allow Florida and Texas the weather their case spikes much better than New York (or Europe) did.   No major city was ever going to escape the virus completely unscathed.  So when it does hit with full force, it’s much better to hit a younger population who are able to detect infection early and have a wide range of medical options available if they do get sick.

[GP270watch]

All the things you posted are related to time. That's why we were supposed to quarantine seriously to flatten the curve and buy time.

I totally agree with that!

That’s why I don’t understand why more people who were advocating lockdowns aren’t looking at the current data and essentially declaring victory.
The purpose of the lockdowns was not to reduce the number of infections in the long term.  The purpose was to delay the inevitable surge in infections until we had better testing and treatment.

We now have much better testing and treatment, and this is going to allow Florida and Texas the weather their case spikes much better than New York (or Europe) did.   No major city was ever going to escape the virus completely unscathed.  So when it does hit with full force, it’s much better to hit a younger population who are able to detect infection early and have a wide range of medical options available if they do get sick.

 It's not victory because we never followed the protocol seriously, the Federal governemnt didn't do everything they could logistically and America is doing worse than most of the world. In my state of Florida deaths are trending up. Most of the rest of the world is in very sharp decline. The medical professionals know how to treat the illness better but it's still deadly.

[Ferguson97]

Brace yourselves. There's a note on Worldometers that says Los Angeles County will not be reporting this weekend. So when we get an extra 10,000 cases out of nowhere on Monday or Tuesday, we'll know why.

I'm guessing for some reason they don't want to report on the 4th?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

All the things you posted are related to time. That's why we were supposed to quarantine seriously to flatten the curve and buy time.

I totally agree with that!

That’s why I don’t understand why more people who were advocating lockdowns aren’t looking at the current data and essentially declaring victory.
The purpose of the lockdowns was not to reduce the number of infections in the long term.  The purpose was to delay the inevitable surge in infections until we had better testing and treatment.

We now have much better testing and treatment, and this is going to allow Florida and Texas the weather their case spikes much better than New York (or Europe) did.   No major city was ever going to escape the virus completely unscathed.  So when it does hit with full force, it’s much better to hit a younger population who are able to detect infection early and have a wide range of medical options available if they do get sick.

 It's not victory because we never followed the protocol seriously, the Federal governemnt didn't do everything they could logistically and America is doing worse than most of the world. In my state of Florida deaths are trending up. Most of the rest of the world is in very sharp decline. The medical professionals know how to treat the illness better but it's still deadly.

Deaths are trending up in Florida, and I would expect that to continue.  I think that’s inevitable when you have a huge surge of infections. 

But we still need to be aware of the scale.  Florida is averaging 45 deaths/day right now.  When New York had a similar number of cases, they were averaging 900 deaths/day. 

I am very confident that we are never going to see that in FL.  The reason most of Europe is in steep decline is that they already had their surge.  And they had it at a time in which we were all much less prepared to address it, leading to a much higher death toll.

[Hammy]

All the things you posted are related to time. That's why we were supposed to quarantine seriously to flatten the curve and buy time.

I totally agree with that!

That’s why I don’t understand why more people who were advocating lockdowns aren’t looking at the current data and essentially declaring victory.
The purpose of the lockdowns was not to reduce the number of infections in the long term.  The purpose was to delay the inevitable surge in infections until we had better testing and treatment.

This is an outright lie--the purpose is to keep the rate of infections steady so that fewer people need hospitalization at any given time. As I've said before, as more people are hospitalized the CFR is not only going to rise as they run out of room, but it's going to kill people who have other diseases that treatment for is now denied due to lack of space.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

All the things you posted are related to time. That's why we were supposed to quarantine seriously to flatten the curve and buy time.

I totally agree with that!

That’s why I don’t understand why more people who were advocating lockdowns aren’t looking at the current data and essentially declaring victory.
The purpose of the lockdowns was not to reduce the number of infections in the long term.  The purpose was to delay the inevitable surge in infections until we had better testing and treatment.

This is an outright lie--the purpose is to keep the rate of infections steady so that fewer people need hospitalization at any given time. As I've said before, as more people are hospitalized the CFR is not only going to rise as they run out of room, but it's going to kill people who have other diseases that treatment for is now denied due to lack of space.

I remember this debate raging two month ago in the middle of the lockdowns.  No one could agree on what the purpose of the lockdowns was.

if the purpose of the lockdown is just to keep infections steady, and you succeed in keeping them steady indefinitely, how do you know when to end the lockdown?

[GP270watch]

Deaths are trending up in Florida, and I would expect that to continue.  I think that’s inevitable when you have a huge surge of infections. 

But we still need to be aware of the scale.  Florida is averaging 45 deaths/day right now.  When New York had a similar number of cases, they were averaging 900 deaths/day. 

I am very confident that we are never going to see that in FL.  The reason most of Europe is in steep decline is that they already had their surge.  And they had it at a time in which we were all much less prepared to address it, leading to a much higher death toll.

 What about Asia? The world is more than Italy and Spain.

 Also look at what Greece has managed to do.

In Greece, COVID-19 Numbers Are Very Low. Neurologists Explain Why.

[Nyvin]

Arizona, Texas, Georgia, and Florida are all at almost the exact same trajectory right now

https://covidbystate.org/?fbclid=IwAR1EdCu4NS7Vx3WHS8PT5oSimEdxCxIYp-_5SuNCBiSOeDtI2QE-3eC355g#/TX-FL-GA-AZ

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Deaths are trending up in Florida, and I would expect that to continue.  I think that’s inevitable when you have a huge surge of infections.  

But we still need to be aware of the scale.  Florida is averaging 45 deaths/day right now.  When New York had a similar number of cases, they were averaging 900 deaths/day.  

I am very confident that we are never going to see that in FL.  The reason most of Europe is in steep decline is that they already had their surge.  And they had it at a time in which we were all much less prepared to address it, leading to a much higher death toll.

 What about Asia? The world is more than Italy and Spain.

 Also look at what Greece has managed to do.

In Greece, COVID-19 Numbers Are Very Low. Neurologists Explain Why.

If back in February, everyone had been wearing masks and we had the institutions set up to do massive testing and contact tracing like they were doing in Korea, things might have turned out differently (and they might have turned out differently in Europe too).  But that has little bearing on the decisions states were faced with in May and June.

With respect to Greece, it sounds like they were doing early on what the United States is mostly doing now to minimize covid deaths.  And just because a country hasn’t seen a surge in infections up until now doesn’t mean they won’t.  A month ago, most people thought Florida was a big succes story.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/05/how-florida-avoided-coronavirus-disaster.html

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Kimberly Guilfoyle diagnosed with COVID-19.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/03/politics/kimberly-guilfoyle-positive-coronavirus-test/index.html

[It’s so Joever]

Honestly, at this point, maybe some level of herd immunity is the only way we can control the virus. As Americans are extremely self-entitled, it’s clear we can’t expect people to act like decent human beings here.
What we should have is a deliberate infection program. Anyone who wants to be able to go out without masks/social distancing can opt to be deliberately infected. They will then be placed under house arrest for several weeks until they test negative twice. Volunteers for this program will not get medical treatment no matter what.
After they are recovered and show antibodies, they will be given a special card that they can show to be exempt from masks.