COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[brucejoel99]

Ron DeSantis should be recalled IMMEDIATELY.

Talk about "monkeying it up."

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/26/florida-governor-ron-desantis-republican-coronavirus

Our recall statutes don't provide for a gubernatorial recall.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Ron DeSantis should be recalled IMMEDIATELY.

Talk about "monkeying it up."

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/26/florida-governor-ron-desantis-republican-coronavirus

Our recall statutes don't provide for a gubernatorial recall.

That's too bad, because he has blood on his hands.

[emailking]

You know, if we had adopted the strict lockdown nationally for three weeks back in March or April like I had asked for, we could have already nearly defeated the virus. We could be reopen without having to go back and forth, which just screws businesses over even more.

Unless we also closed the borders to everyone, including citizens, ever since, couldn't we just be in the same situation now anyway?

[GP270watch]

Deaths do indeed lag (though only by weeks, not months) but hospitalizations should lag only by days.  Either the virus has become truly less virulent or (as I mostly suspect) the people getting infected/tested are far less at risk than they were in the earlier stages of the pandemic.

 This is speculation by me but it could be combo of the broader population getting it including younger people and also better preparation by medical staff and government even if we don't have a universal therapy yet.

 I don't think we have seen evidence to say the virus has mutated to be weaker. That would be awesome but there is no evidence for that. And we have to be careful of making wrong conclusions just by looking at data with no context.

 There were people saying before that California has reached herd immunity/virus had circulated because of a few studies and since the Eastcoast was dealing with a pandemic when they were not. That looks to be wrong now.

[It’s so Joever]

You know, if we had adopted the strict lockdown nationally for three weeks back in March or April like I had asked for, we could have already nearly defeated the virus. We could be reopen without having to go back and forth, which just screws businesses over even more.

Unless we also closed the borders to everyone, including citizens, ever since, couldn't we just be in the same situation now anyway?

To an extent.
Travel should have been more restricted, although the number of actual infections from Mexico to the US probably is small, and Canada already has closed their border.

[GP270watch]

You know, if we had adopted the strict lockdown nationally for three weeks back in March or April like I had asked for, we could have already nearly defeated the virus. We could be reopen without having to go back and forth, which just screws businesses over even more.

Unless we also closed the borders to everyone, including citizens, ever since, couldn't we just be in the same situation now anyway?

 The problem is the more success you have the more callous and lax people become. If we had 3 weeks shutdown and little cases following, people would not have practiced preventative things like social distancing, face masks, health checks, travel restrictions.

 We forget that other nations like South Korea were basically playing very aggressive whack a mole with contact tracing and health/temperature checks when entering building and shopping centers. The United States has done nothing like this.

[T'Chenka]

I think we are getting to a point where some states, or at the very least some counties/regions, are going to have to go to total shutdown again.

You can't have a functioning economy with the disease running rampant.

Conservatives are to blame. If the states were properly locked down for 3 months, the economy would've - jn the end - suffered less long-term. Desperate to "save the economy", they opened too early and f___ed the economy (and got people killed). F___ing PATHETIC and disgusting.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Check out these beach pictures from the UK: https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/26/football/liverpool-fans-police-criticize-gathering-anfield-title-win-spt-intl/index.html.  It looks like the US isn't the only country where people are not taking this seriously enough.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://twitter.com/MylesUdland/status/1276582941133594625

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I think we are getting to a point where some states, or at the very least some counties/regions, are going to have to go to total shutdown again.

You can't have a functioning economy with the disease running rampant.

Conservatives are to blame. If the states were properly locked down for 3 months, the economy would've - jn the end - suffered less long-term. Desperate to "save the economy", they opened too early and f___ed the economy (and got people killed). F___ing PATHETIC and disgusting.

If you locked the country down for three months, the virus would just go back to spreading three months later.  Medical experts believe that for many people, the question is not "if" they will get the virus but "when":

“This virus is not going to rest” until it infects about 60 percent to 70 percent of the population, Dr. Michael T. Osterholm, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota said on “Fox News Sunday.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/14/health/coronavirus-summer-spread.html

"The length of the pandemic will likely be 18 to 24 months, as herd immunity gradually develops in the human population," the report says. "Given the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2" — the virus that causes COVID-19 — "60% to 70% of the population may need to be immune to reach a critical threshold of herd immunity to halt the pandemic."

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-pandemic-update-two-years-70-percent-immunity/

The purpose of the lockdowns is not to prevent infections.  It is to prevent the healthcare system from collapsing.  And despite the surge in infections in Florida, there is little evidence that hospital resources are being overwhelmed.

And I actually don't think we need a 60% infection rate to slowly kill off the virus.  As I've discussed before, places like New York and Italy have shown that it can be done with a much lower immunity threshold.  Florida and Texas clearly haven't reached that threshold yet.  But there's little reason to just delay it further.  As long as the infections are predominantly younger people who are less likely to suffer serious adverse health effects, more infections are a good thing, because they speed up the process of immunity.

[Dr. Arch]

It looks like we're set for another record today.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Another new record in cases, but another drop in deaths from the week-ago number.  This general trend of cases being up and deaths down has been in effect for several weeks now.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1276636613511184390

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile, CNN broke down face-mask wearing by region of the Country...

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/26/politics/maskwearing-coronavirus-analysis/index.html

Now some of this could be items such "always wearing a face mask when outside of the house"...

I don't wear a mask every time I walk out my door, but always wear a mask when going into indoors spaces outside of my home, or in outdoor areas where I can't practice a minimum 6' social distancing...

In larger Cities with significant amount of foot traffic, or in apt bldgs / condos where people need to use the Elevator or stairs, I would imagine would be a bit different than one or two story apt bldgs without shared stairs/elevators, etc....

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Meanwhile, CNN broke down face-mask wearing by region of the Country...

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/26/politics/maskwearing-coronavirus-analysis/index.html

Now some of this could be items such "always wearing a face mask when outside of the house"...

I don't wear a mask every time I walk out my door, but always wear a mask when going into indoors spaces outside of my home, or in outdoor areas where I can't practice a minimum 6' social distancing...

In larger Cities with significant amount of foot traffic, or in apt bldgs / condos where people need to use the Elevator or stairs, I would imagine would be a bit different than one or two story apt bldgs without shared stairs/elevators, etc....

I'd say that my church has less than 5% wearing masks.  Grocery stores are like 50-60%.  Other stores are maybe 25%.  Restaurants are virtually 0% for patrons, but maybe 90% for employees.  Walking around outside is basically 0%.  Maybe 2% in congested outdoor areas.

I've never seen someone wear a mask to a social gathering.  I'd be curious to know if any others have seen that.

[GP270watch]

 Made my weekly shopping trips. Huge signs outside of Publix urging masks. I would say close to 100% of people were wearing masks. Even in the outdoor Mexican fruit-stand people had masks.

[Calthrina950]

Meanwhile, CNN broke down face-mask wearing by region of the Country...

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/26/politics/maskwearing-coronavirus-analysis/index.html

Now some of this could be items such "always wearing a face mask when outside of the house"...

I don't wear a mask every time I walk out my door, but always wear a mask when going into indoors spaces outside of my home, or in outdoor areas where I can't practice a minimum 6' social distancing...

In larger Cities with significant amount of foot traffic, or in apt bldgs / condos where people need to use the Elevator or stairs, I would imagine would be a bit different than one or two story apt bldgs without shared stairs/elevators, etc....

This isn't too surprising to me. It also depends on whether or not you live in a state, county, or city where mask-wearing has been made mandatory by the authorities. The Northeastern states, where people are wearing masks at higher rates than most of the country, have by and large made them mandatory. The same is true in California and the other states of the Pacific Coast. By contrast, in those regions where it hasn't been-such as parts of the Midwest, South, and Interior West-mask wearing rates are lower. Here in Colorado Springs (where it has not been made mandatory), I would say around half of all people are wearing masks, and half are not. In Denver, Boulder, Ft. Collins, and Aspen, where it has been made mandatory, the rate is probably much higher (though I haven't been to any of those cities since before the pandemic started).

[Bandit3 the Worker]

A doctor in Israel who used to be a top Israeli health official says new cases might really be old cases that still show up on PCR tests:

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/282529

I've seen some speculation that this explains all those new cases in the southern U.S. But this seems to occur only in places with hot weather like Israel and the southern U.S.

This theory could hold water. This is a longtime health official, not some crackpot who sits around making flexagons in his basement all day.

[emailking]

Looks like we're going to smash the record today.

[Green Line]

Looks like we're going to smash the record today.

Yes, lowest Friday death toll since March 27.  Thank God!

[GP270watch]

A doctor in Israel who used to be a top Israeli health official says new cases might really be old cases that still show up on PCR tests:

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/282529

I've seen some speculation that this explains all those new cases in the southern U.S. But this seems to occur only in places with hot weather like Israel and the southern U.S.

This theory could hold water. This is a longtime health official, not some crackpot who sits around making flexagons in his basement all day.

 I read the article and he sounds like a crackpot.

[emailking]

Looks like we're going to smash the record today.

Yes, lowest Friday death toll since March 27.  Thank God!

I acknowledged like a week ago that deaths don't seem to be going up with cases anymore, but the infection is a major problem even if it doesn't kill you.

[jimrtex]

In Florida, the link between positive tests (cases), hospitalizations, and deaths has completely broken down.  Positive tests are up 5x since early June but hospital admits and deaths are no higher than mid-May.

Deaths do indeed lag (though only by weeks, not months) but hospitalizations should lag only by days.  Either the virus has become truly less virulent or (as I mostly suspect) the people getting infected/tested are far less at risk than they were in the earlier stages of the pandemic.

Minnesota has just reported that their most infected age group is now 20-29, surpassing 30-39. They have also noted four bars, two in Mankato, and two in Minneapolis's Dinkytown neighborhood just off the University of Minnesota's campus, as spreading infections.

Bars are likely to have a high level of social interaction - you are wanting to meet someone  you increase your odds by more interactions. No one is likely to wear masks as they spit beer at each other, and alcohol reduces inhibitions.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 6/26 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/10-5/16 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/17-5/23 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/24-5/30 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/31-6/6 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 6/7-6/13 in this post>

6/14: <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,162,144 (+19,920 | Δ Change: ↓21.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)
• Deaths: 117,853 (+326 | Δ Change: ↓53.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)

6/15:

• Cases: 2,182,950 (+20,806 | Δ Change: ↑4.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.96%)
• Deaths: 118,283 (+430 | Δ Change: ↑31.90% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

6/16:

• Cases: 2,208,400 (+25,450 | Δ Change: ↑22.32% | Σ Increase: ↑1.17%)
• Deaths: 119,132 (+849 | Δ Change: ↑97.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)

6/17:

• Cases: 2,234,471 (+26,071 | Δ Change: ↑2.44% | Σ Increase: ↑1.18%)
• Deaths: 119,941 (+809 | Δ Change: ↓4.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)

6/18:

• Cases: 2,263,651 (+29,180 | Δ Change: ↑11.93% | Σ Increase: ↑1.31%)
• Deaths: 120,688 (+747 | Δ Change: ↓7.66% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)

6/19:

• Cases: 2,297,190 (+33,539 | Δ Change: ↑14.94% | Σ Increase: ↑1.48%)
• Deaths: 121,407 (+719 | Δ Change: ↓3.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

6/20:

• Cases: 2,330,578 (+33,388 | Δ Change: ↓0.45% | Σ Increase: ↑1.45%)
• Deaths: 121,980 (+573 | Δ Change: ↓20.31% | Σ Increase: ↑0.47%)

6/21: <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,356,657 (+26,079 | Δ Change: ↓21.89% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
• Deaths: 122,247 (+267 | Δ Change: ↓53.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

6/22:

• Cases: 2,388,153 (+31,496 | Δ Change: ↑20.77% | Σ Increase: ↑1.34%)
• Deaths: 122,610 (+363 | Δ Change: ↑35.96% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

6/23:

• Cases: 2,424,168 (+36,015 | Δ Change: ↑14.35% | Σ Increase: ↑1.51%)
• Deaths: 123,473 (+863 | Δ Change: ↑137.74% | Σ Increase: ↑0.70%)
• Death toll inflated by older counts recently dumped by DE

6/24:

• Cases: 2,462,554 (+38,386 | Δ Change: ↑6.18% | Σ Increase: ↑1.58%)
• Deaths: 124,281 (+808 | Δ Change: ↓6.37% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)

6/25 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 2,504,588 (+42,034 | Δ Change: ↑9.50% | Σ Increase: ↑1.71%)
• Deaths: 126,780 (+2,499 | Δ Change: ↑209.28% | Σ Increase: ↑2.01%)
• Death toll inflated by older counts recently dumped by NJ

6/26 (Today):

• Cases: 2,552,940 (+48,352 | Δ Change: ↑15.03% | Σ Increase: ↑1.93%)
• Deaths: 127,640 (+860 | Δ Change: ↓65.59% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)
• Death Δ Change affected by older counts recently dumped by NJ on 6/25

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Cases have actually been pretty flat in California, Arizona, and Texas over the last 5 days or so.  It looks like the crazy national spike in cases today was driven almost entirely by Florida.

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile, CNN broke down face-mask wearing by region of the Country...

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/26/politics/maskwearing-coronavirus-analysis/index.html

Now some of this could be items such "always wearing a face mask when outside of the house"...

I don't wear a mask every time I walk out my door, but always wear a mask when going into indoors spaces outside of my home, or in outdoor areas where I can't practice a minimum 6' social distancing...

In larger Cities with significant amount of foot traffic, or in apt bldgs / condos where people need to use the Elevator or stairs, I would imagine would be a bit different than one or two story apt bldgs without shared stairs/elevators, etc....

I'd say that my church has less than 5% wearing masks.  Grocery stores are like 50-60%.  Other stores are maybe 25%.  Restaurants are virtually 0% for patrons, but maybe 90% for employees.  Walking around outside is basically 0%.  Maybe 2% in congested outdoor areas.

I've never seen someone wear a mask to a social gathering.  I'd be curious to know if any others have seen that.

Ouch... those Church Numbers are especially concerning... (And I don't say that as a hater----)

My aging Father and Stepmother in their '70s are regular weekly Church goers in SoCal, as well as various other activities such as Women's Groups, Men's Groups, "Celebrate Recovery", "Social Support Committees" etc, but have not attended Church in person since COVID first hit Cali....

The largest outbreak in Oregon occurred fairly recently in a small, "rural", and currently a pretty overwhelmingly Republican Part of Oregon as a direct result of a massive gathering

https://www.newsweek.com/89-percent-oregon-countys-coronavirus-cases-linked-church-outbreak-1512837

https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/06/union-county-voluntarily-returns-to-phase-1-following-oregons-largest-outbreak.html

https://www.lagrandeobserver.com/coronavirus/union-county-has-first-covid-19-related-death-moves-past-300-cases/article_7f8218ce-b723-11ea-a502-e7982c766ec9.html

Grocery Store / Other Store numbers here in Downstate Oregon, including my current City, which is "Moderate Trump Country" is relatively similar, perhaps slightly higher....

Outside numbers are also extremely low, but tick up quite a bit once it comes to more congested "city sidewalks"....

We left our immediate local working/living area for the first time in Four Months to go to the Coast for a Wedding Anniversary, and local people seemed to be taking it a bit more seriously (High % of Seniors), plus there had just been a massive outbreak at a seafood processing facility less than a week before....

We did our due diligence, but still frustrating to see "jerks" who don't take the stuff seriously and realize that their actions could cause me, my wife, or her clients to potentially die because of medical conditions, simply because they "don't believe in wearing a mask"....