COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

On the stimulus front:

Mitch McConnell is expected to release his base plan for the fourth (and by all likelihood, final) stimulus package sometime today .

McConnell has noted that this is not necessarily the final version of the package and that it will most certainly be modified when all is said and done.  

In addition to more funds for businesses, there are two items for which to look:

- Second stimulus checks:  In a turnaround from May, McConnell has recently expressed strong support for a second round of direct payments to Americans.  The amounts and who will be eligible still remain to be seen.  Bear in mind that this does not necessarily translate to an exact duplication of the CARES Act with regards to a second check.  Proposals have ranged from a travel credit to a back-to-work incentive.


- Unemployment bonus : Members of the Senate GOP have voiced their discontent with extending the weekly $600 unemployment bonus under the rationale that it de-motivates those on unemployment to return to work.  Proposals are few and far between, but a future unemployment bonus may exist in decreased form.  

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Were you completely anti-mask before, Bandit?

Pretty much, except for medical workers. Now I can see masks have some use. I just don't fixate on it.

I've also tended to avoid indoor businesses lately, because things just aren't what they were before.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Were you completely anti-mask before, Bandit?

Pretty much, except for medical workers. Now I can see masks have some use. I just don't fixate on it.

I've also tended to avoid indoor businesses lately, because things just aren't what they were before.

Supply chain is definitely still affected in grocery stores where I am. 

Regularly seeing empty shelves (especially in the meats and bread sections) -- a lot more than before the pandemic. 

[woodley park]

From Politico: A gap in federal unemployment benefits is now unavoidable. Here’s why.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/23/gap-unemployment-heres-why-379267

Tens of millions of laid-off American workers will go weeks without federal jobless aid — because Congress hasn’t renewed the benefits in time for overwhelmed state unemployment systems to adjust their computers.

State offices will need weeks to reprogram their systems to account for an extension of the $600 weekly federal payments that expire on Saturday — or any changes that Congress makes to the benefit amount or eligibility rules. That comes on top of hardships faced by workers in states like Washington and Nevada, who are already waiting months to get their first payments in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic because their unemployment offices can’t handle the historic flood of claims.

In some states with particularly antiquated systems, it’s already too late to prevent a lapse, even though the federal benefits haven’t officially expired, according to people familiar with how the systems work.

“In some states, it could take quite a bit of time, and it could cause severe delays,” said Arindrajit Dube, a professor of economics at UMass Amherst. “This is the kind of thing you don't try to change in the middle of a pandemic.

Well that is depressing.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Thursday jobs report dropped - unemployment up slightly from last week: 

https://mobile.twitter.com/WestWingReport/status/1286280344879104001

[Person Man]

Thursday jobs report dropped - unemployment up slightly from last week:  

https://mobile.twitter.com/WestWingReport/status/1286280344879104001

There could be extenuating circumstances, but its very hard to imagine the unemployment rate continuing to decrease into August on the July report. Theoretically more firms could just be hiring to pick up the slack for the firms shutting down but its hard to imagine there just being more "velocity" with workers coming and going. I just don't think it happens that way. If we break 11% or go into the single digits next week, you know that the books are being cooked. It's already common knowledge that the books on inflation are being cooked.

That's what so finksed about a second Trump term. With the understanding that there will be no Trump 2024, or Trump II 2024 or a situation that would incentivize "security" , someone is eventually going to blow the whistle and then we will have a Enron or Lehman Brothers situation macroeconomically.

[woodley park]

From WaPo: Republicans scrap Trump’s demand for payroll tax cut as they cobble together draft coronavirus bill


https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2020/07/23/congress-stimulus-coronavirus-trump/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-high_virushill-9am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans

Senate Republicans have cast aside one of President Trump’s key demands in their emerging coronavirus stimulus package, refusing to include a payroll tax cut in their opening offer to Democrats, which Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) is aiming to announce Thursday.

The development came amid a frantic GOP effort to try and salvage other parts of the package, though the entire process remained fluid and there was confusion among Republican aides about when a deal might be reached. Republicans had hoped to reach a deal amongst themselves on Wednesday but they were unable to sort out a number of competing intraparty issues.

Yikes, defying Trump on his signature demand for the relief bill. The process is 'fluid' however; I wonder if they are going to fold like they have on ..*checks notes*... everything else.

[Person Man]

From WaPo: Republicans scrap Trump’s demand for payroll tax cut as they cobble together draft coronavirus bill


https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2020/07/23/congress-stimulus-coronavirus-trump/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-high_virushill-9am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans

Senate Republicans have cast aside one of President Trump’s key demands in their emerging coronavirus stimulus package, refusing to include a payroll tax cut in their opening offer to Democrats, which Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) is aiming to announce Thursday.

The development came amid a frantic GOP effort to try and salvage other parts of the package, though the entire process remained fluid and there was confusion among Republican aides about when a deal might be reached. Republicans had hoped to reach a deal amongst themselves on Wednesday but they were unable to sort out a number of competing intraparty issues.

Yikes, defying Trump on his signature demand for the relief bill. The process is 'fluid' however; I wonder if they are going to fold like they have on ..*checks notes*... everything else.

They need to pretend that we are still a democracy.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Forbes reporting that McConnell's stimulus plan remains "exactly the same" as the CARES Act with regards to a second round of checks: $1200, $500 per dependent under 17, income cutoff at $75,000.

After some negotiation this week with the White House and discussions with some House and Senate Democrats, The Hill reported that Treasury Secretary Mnuchin confirmed that the proposed second stimulus check will be the same as the first: “We're talking about the same provision as last time, so our proposal is the exact same proposal as last time.”

[Person Man]

Forbes reporting that McConnell's stimulus plan remains "exactly the same" as the CARES Act with regards to a second round of checks: $1200, $500 per dependent under 17, income cutoff at $75,000.

After some negotiation this week with the White House and discussions with some House and Senate Democrats, The Hill reported that Treasury Secretary Mnuchin confirmed that the proposed second stimulus check will be the same as the first: “We're talking about the same provision as last time, so our proposal is the exact same proposal as last time.”

At this point, his plan is just to try to have a mulligan at Corona? It appears that is Trump's plan, too.

[GP270watch]

Should have these 4 components for sure.

1. Direct stimulus to every American citizen, drop the means testing(it's not worth the redtape upfront) and develop a system for future instances where direct stimulus can be distributed instantly and evenly.

2. Money for states, this is very important.

3. Bonus compensation for medical professionals and grocery and others workers who continued working throughout the pandemic at risk and harm to themselves.

4. Continue the extra $600 weekly unemployment insurance as is, it's been credited with economists on the left and right as keeping households and businesses from drowning.

[Person Man]

Should have these 4 components for sure.

1. Direct stimulus to every American citizen, drop the means testing(it's not worth the redtape upfront) and develop a system for future instances where direct stimulus can be distributed instantly and evenly.

2. Money for states, this is very important.

3. Bonus compensation for medical professionals and grocery and others workers who continued working throughout the pandemic at risk and harm to themselves.

4. Continue the extra $600 weekly unemployment insurance as is, it's been credited with economists on the left and right as keeping households and businesses from drowning.

I would continue the extra $600 but I would be open to changing it supplementing state UEI to 70% of PRE-TAX earnings once national unemployment gets below 10% and replacing it with a back-to-work bonus once it goes below 8% worth the difference in wages until unemployment goes below 7%.

We really need to work on tapering things off instead of having these gaps where one extra day or one extra dollar means you can go from being able to collect from a program to being completely deemed self-sufficient.

[Frodo]

Please let this come true:

Fauci: 'We could start talking about real normality again' in 2021

[GeorgiaModerate]

Please let this come true:

Fauci: 'We could start talking about real normality again' in 2021

This works on several levels.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Is worldometers right that Kern County, CA is reporting over 1500 new cases today?  That’s insane.  Kern Co. has less a million people.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Is worldometers right that Kern County, CA is reporting over 1500 new cases today?  That’s insane.  Kern Co. has less a million people.

The desperately poor Hispanic farm workers and meatpacking plants in California are getting decimated by COVID. Bosses are threatening to fire workers if they take a day off to protest or need a sick day.

[GP270watch]

Advocates for farm workers were begging the state of Florida for help before the pandemic really hit this state and they were ignored. It doesn't make any sense either you want the people growing your food to have protection and not be sick. They have been hit pretty hard now here in Florida as well.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Please let this come true:

Fauci: 'We could start talking about real normality again' in 2021

It's sad that normalcy returning next year is something worth celebrating.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 7/23 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

New - Substituting the Δ Change metric as of 7/13 on dates starting from 7/5:
ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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7/12: <Sunday>

• Cases: 3,413,995 (+58,349 | ΔW Change: ↑23.73% | Σ Increase: ↑1.74%)
• Deaths: 137,782 (+379 | ΔW Change: ↑51.00% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)

7/13: <M>

• Cases: 3,479,483 (+65,488 | ΔW Change: ↑13.10% | Σ Increase: ↑1.74%)
• Deaths: 138,247 (+465 | ΔW Change: ↑13.41% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)

7/14: <T>

• Cases: 3,545,077 (+65,594 | ΔW Change: ↑16.61% | Σ Increase: ↑1.89%)
• Deaths: 139,143 (+896 | ΔW Change: ↓9.77% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)

7/15: <W>

• Cases: 3,616,747 (+71,670 | ΔW Change: ↑13.61% | Σ Increase: ↑2.02%)
• Deaths: 140,140 (+997 | ΔW Change: ↑16.25% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)

7/16: <Þ>

• Cases: 3,695,025 (+78,278 | ΔW Change: ↑27.77% | Σ Increase: ↑2.16%)
• Deaths: 141,118 (+978 | ΔW Change: ↑1.03% | Σ Increase: ↑0.70%)

7/17: <F>

• Cases: 3,770,012 (+74,987 | ΔW Change: ↑4.46% | Σ Increase: ↑2.03%)
• Deaths: 142,064 (+946 | ΔW Change: ↑11.43% | Σ Increase: ↑0.67%)

7/18: <S>

• Cases: 3,833,271 (+63,259 | ΔW Change: ↓0.94% | Σ Increase: ↑1.68%)
• Deaths: 142,877 (+813 | ΔW Change: ↑11.07% | Σ Increase: ↑0.57%)

7/19: <Sunday>

• Cases: 3,896,855 (+63,584 | ΔW Change: ↑8.97% | Σ Increase: ↑1.66%)
• Deaths: 143,269 (+392 | ΔW Change: ↑3.43% | Σ Increase: ↑0.27%)

7/20: <M>

• Cases: 3,961,429 (+64,574 | ΔW Change: ↓1.40% | Σ Increase: ↑1.66%)
• Deaths: 143,834 (+565 | ΔW Change: ↑21.51% | Σ Increase: ↑0.39%)

7/21: <T>

• Cases: 4,028,569 (+67,140 | ΔW Change: ↑2.36% | Σ Increase: ↑1.69%)
• Deaths: 144,953 (+1,119 | ΔW Change: ↑24.85% | Σ Increase: ↑0.78%)

7/22 (Yesterday): <W>

• Cases: 4,100,875 (+72,306 | ΔW Change: ↑0.89% | Σ Increase: ↑1.79%)
• Deaths: 146,183 (+1,230 | ΔW Change: ↑23.37% | Σ Increase: ↑0.85%)

7/23 (Today): <Þ>

• Cases: 4,169,991 (+69,116 | ΔW Change: ↓11.70% | Σ Increase: ↑1.69%)
• Deaths: 147,333 (+1,150 | ΔW Change: ↑17.59% | Σ Increase: ↑0.79%)

[emailking]

Cases seem to be leveling off some. Hopefully we're at or near peak.

[woodley park]

Trump's briefings were meant to show him in charge -- now they are becoming absurd

President Donald Trump says the country is doing great in a pandemic that just infected its four millionth US victim and is killing 1,000 people a day. But his claim is based on a brazen confidence trick, requiring Americans to ignore his responsibility for the spike in the southern and western states as he claims credit for the success of northeastern states that suppressed the disease after not heeding his advice to reopen before the virus was under control.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/07/24/politics/donald-trump-coronavirus-briefing-jacksonville/index.html

[GeorgiaModerate]

COVID-19 patients will be ‘sent home to die’ if deemed too sick, Texas county says

In April, its aggressive and successful approach to beating the coronavirus was spotlighted by NBC News.
...
But after Gov. Greg Abbott issued orders for the reopening of the state, overriding local control and decision-making, COVID-19 cases surged.

Now Starr County is at a dangerous “tipping point,” reporting an alarming number of new cases each day, data show. Starr County Memorial Hospital — the county’s only hospital — is overflowing with COVID-19 patients.

The county has been forced to form what is being compared to a so-called “death panel.” A county health board – which governs Starr Memorial – is set to authorize critical care guidelines Thursday that will help medical workers determine ways to allocate scarce medical resources on patients with the best chance to survive.

[SInNYC]

Should have these 4 components for sure.

1. Direct stimulus to every American citizen, drop the means testing(it's not worth the redtape upfront) and develop a system for future instances where direct stimulus can be distributed instantly and evenly.

2. Money for states, this is very important.

3. Bonus compensation for medical professionals and grocery and others workers who continued working throughout the pandemic at risk and harm to themselves.

4. Continue the extra $600 weekly unemployment insurance as is, it's been credited with economists on the left and right as keeping households and businesses from drowning.

This is a good basis, but the items need to be pegged to economic statistics. Otherwise, its entirely possible that the senate shuts everything off in the next round (if Biden wins and Rs keep the senate) and we are just plunged into a deep recession in 2021.

This unfortunately sounds like just politics, but its the reality of the world we live in. However, pegging it to economic stats is also good policy and not just politics.

[GP270watch]

Should have these 4 components for sure.

1. Direct stimulus to every American citizen, drop the means testing(it's not worth the redtape upfront) and develop a system for future instances where direct stimulus can be distributed instantly and evenly.

2. Money for states, this is very important.

3. Bonus compensation for medical professionals and grocery and others workers who continued working throughout the pandemic at risk and harm to themselves.

4. Continue the extra $600 weekly unemployment insurance as is, it's been credited with economists on the left and right as keeping households and businesses from drowning.

This is a good basis, but the items need to be pegged to economic statistics. Otherwise, its entirely possible that the senate shuts everything off in the next round (if Biden wins and Rs keep the senate) and we are just plunged into a deep recession in 2021.

This unfortunately sounds like just politics, but its the reality of the world we live in. However, pegging it to economic stats is also good policy and not just politics.

 The recession is coming and Biden will have to clean up this mess at the same time that rightwing media and pundits will have no shame whatsoever in blaming the mess on Biden.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/joeygarrison/status/1286724615365173250