COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It actually might be helpful if we understood how much of the disagreement about strategies to tackle covid were the result of different underlying values, and how much were the result of different beliefs about facts related to the virus.

I’d be interested in posting an informal survey about people’s beliefs about facts related to the virus.  I understand that the true answers to many of the facts are not known, so their might be reasonable disagreement about them.  But I’d be curious to know the range of beliefs with respect to people’s best estimates.  I remember I posted a survey a few months back on the question of “What do you believe is the probability that you personally will be infected in the next year?” and the range of responses was completely all over the map.

Some questions I’d be interested in:
1.) What is the ratio of cases to actual infections in the US?
2.) What is the current IFR among infected people over 70 years old?
3.) What is the current IFR among infected people under 50 years old?
4.) What percentage of infected people will remain immune to reinfection six months later?
5.) When is the most likely time frame for a vaccine with at least 90% effectiveness to become available to the general public in the US?
6.) To what extent have treatments such as steroids, plasma, and remdesivir reduced the IFR of the virus over the past three months?
7.) What is the effective reduction in Rt solely from universal wearing of masks in public places?

What other questions are people interested in knowing people’s beliefs on?

[emailking]

1:2.5
10%
1%
100%
early 2021
10%
80%

I make no claims as to the accuracy of any of that

[Ogre Mage]

“Poorer nations throughout Latin America, the Middle East, South Asia and Africa are bearing a growing share of the caseload, even as wealthier countries in Western Europe and East Asia enjoy a relative respite after having beaten back the worst effects through rigorously enforced lockdowns.”

“And then there’s the United States, which leads the world in new cases and, as with many nations that possess far fewer resources, has shown no sign of being able to regain control.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/global-surge-in-coronavirus-cases-is-being-fed-by-the-developing-world--and-the-us/2020/07/14/1e9ca48e-c605-11ea-8ffe-372be8d82298_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-high_coronavirus-802pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans

Trumpvirus has turned the U.S. into a sh*thole country.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

1.) What is the ratio of cases to actual infections in the US?
2.) What is the current IFR among infected people over 70 years old?
3.) What is the current IFR among infected people under 50 years old?
4.) What percentage of infected people will remain immune to reinfection six months later?
5.) When is the most likely time frame for a vaccine with at least 90% effectiveness to become available to the general public in the US?
6.) To what extent have treatments such as steroids, plasma, and remdesivir reduced the IFR of the virus over the past three months?
7.) What is the effective reduction in Rt solely from universal wearing of masks in public places?

1.) 1:9
2.) 4%
3.) 0.2%
4.) 100%
5.) Oct. 2020
6.) 10%
7.) 0% (I really don't think masks are what they're cracked up to be)

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

“Poorer nations throughout Latin America, the Middle East, South Asia and Africa are bearing a growing share of the caseload, even as wealthier countries in Western Europe and East Asia enjoy a relative respite after having beaten back the worst effects through rigorously enforced lockdowns.”

“And then there’s the United States, which leads the world in new cases and, as with many nations that possess far fewer resources, has shown no sign of being able to regain control.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/global-surge-in-coronavirus-cases-is-being-fed-by-the-developing-world--and-the-us/2020/07/14/1e9ca48e-c605-11ea-8ffe-372be8d82298_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-high_coronavirus-802pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans

Trumpvirus has turned the U.S. into a sh*thole country.

Not just COVID-19, and not even just Mr. Trump (nor even just the Republicans).

Why One of the Richest Countries on Earth Is So Poor: The Facts that Drive the Sanders Revolt (2016)

Trump (and now the pandemic) have broken some of our illusions, and while we might fool ourselves again, I doubt we will be able to fool the world.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Walmart will require all customers to wear masks beginning Monday, July 20.

[Brittain33]

Walmart will require all customers to wear masks beginning Monday, July 20.

Thoughts and prayers for the poor WalMart employees who have to enforce this. Hope we don’t hear about any more senior citizens stabbed or punched by angry 35-year-olds.

[jamestroll]

Walmart will require all customers to wear masks beginning Monday, July 20.

Thoughts and prayers for the poor WalMart employees who have to enforce this. Hope we don’t hear about any more senior citizens stabbed or punched by angry 35-year-olds.

This is why I am fed up with the GOP as well. And the media is  not reporting how many retail workers are killed daily by enforcing masks.

[jamestroll]

https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/restoring-the-lockdowns-will-cause-more-damage/

Interesting opinion piece.

I don’t think you’ll see the restoration of sweeping lockdown rules, in part because the enforcement of those rules went so badly the first time. Americans witnessed dumb rules such as bans on surfing and drive-in church services and nutty arbitrary restrictions such as permitting drywall but not paint in Michigan. They witnessed ridiculous decisions such as the arrest of a dad playing catch with his daughter, police forcefully dragging a man off a bus after a dispute about wearing a mask, and police taking a mom away from a playground in handcuffs. And then once the protests started, the strict enforcement of quarantines suddenly disappeared. All of this came together to convince plenty of people that the lockdowns represented petty fascism and micromanaging governors on power trips.

While these rules were being enforced, ordinary Americans wondering how they’re going to pay the rent or mortgage were subjected to wealthy celebrities singing “imagine no possessions,” David Geffen telling everyone to “stay safe” from his yacht, Madonna assuring us from her bathtub in her mansion that what was great about the quarantine was that it was “the great equalizer,” and tales of wealthy and well-connected elites ignoring the quarantine restrictions. Millions of Americans concluded the lockdown represented draconian immiseration enacted by elites who were wildly oblivious to the realities of their lives, yet couldn’t stop patting themselves on the back for their empathy.

No lock downs but no moving into new phases.

[BudgieForce]

Walmart will require all customers to wear masks beginning Monday, July 20.

Thoughts and prayers for the poor WalMart employees who have to enforce this. Hope we don’t hear about any more senior citizens stabbed or punched by angry 35-year-olds.

At the very least, we'll get more viral videos out of it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Walmart will require all customers to wear masks beginning Monday, July 20.

Thoughts and prayers for the poor WalMart employees who have to enforce this. Hope we don’t hear about any more senior citizens stabbed or punched by angry 35-year-olds.

This is why I am fed up with the GOP as well. And the media is  not reporting how many retail workers are killed daily by enforcing masks.

That's because it is, thankfully, an extremely rare event.  When it does happen, it's all over the news.

[Calthrina950]

Walmart will require all customers to wear masks beginning Monday, July 20.

Mask requirements are expanding further. Given that Costco made masks mandatory all the way back in May, it surprises me that it took until now for Walmart to do the same. Apparently, they are doing so to provide "consistency" across their stores, since so many jurisdictions have made them mandatory. I expect for the remaining national and regional store chains (i.e. Kroger, Target, Dollar Tree, etc.) to follow suit.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Daily Florida numbers are out:

Via reddit --

10,181 new cases today's report. 10,087 residents and 94 non-residents. 20.0% positive from 50,803 tests. 112 death. 453 Hospitalizations highest hospitalization yet. Median age 41.

[jamestroll]

Daily Florida numbers are out:

Via reddit --

10,181 new cases today's report. 10,087 residents and 94 non-residents. 20.0% positive from 50,803 tests. 112 death. 453 Hospitalizations highest hospitalization yet. Median age 41.

As vocal as I am opposing lockdowns, beneath the surface I am actually more reasoned than most of the anti-lockdown people because I do not want situations like this.

I see news headlines like this:



I would advise against that. No state should move to a new reopening phase.

I do not even think schools should reopen fully this fall. Most districts could do a rotational basis or case by case basis for poorer students whose parents can't work from home, etc.

What I oppose is people who want every living human being locked into their house until this pandemic is solved. Which will take several years. Not realistic.

[Calthrina950]

Daily Florida numbers are out:

Via reddit --

10,181 new cases today's report. 10,087 residents and 94 non-residents. 20.0% positive from 50,803 tests. 112 death. 453 Hospitalizations highest hospitalization yet. Median age 41.

In El Paso County, coronavirus hospitalizations and cases are continuing to increase at a rapid clip. I read that 7% of coronavirus tests here are now coming back positive. Our health officials have stated that we are at jeopardy of having to reimpose restrictions if the positivity rate is above 5%. Moreover, they are urging officials to make masks mandatory, but the County Board of Commissioners is still reluctant to do so. If we do not reverse our current case growth trajectory, we will be back in a state of lockdown.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Another idiot.

https://twitter.com/KOCOZach/status/1283425215859630080

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Some questions I’d be interested in:
1.) What is the ratio of cases to actual infections in the US?
2.) What is the current IFR among infected people over 70 years old?
3.) What is the current IFR among infected people under 50 years old?
4.) What percentage of infected people will remain immune to reinfection six months later?
5.) When is the most likely time frame for a vaccine with at least 90% effectiveness to become available to the general public in the US?
6.) To what extent have treatments such as steroids, plasma, and remdesivir reduced the IFR of the virus over the past three months?
7.) What is the effective reduction in Rt solely from universal wearing of masks in public places?

My own answers to these questions:
1.) 1:8
2.) 5%
3.) 0.03%
4.) 99%
5.) February 2021
6.) 60%
7.) 50%

[Del Tachi]

7.) What is the effective reduction in Rt solely from universal wearing of masks in public places?

Very limited, because a mask is going to have very little effect in a place like a grocery store (where social distancing is generally being observed, and personal contacts are rare).  People really just don't swap saliva or cough onto one another at grocery stores, even prior to the pandemic.

[Gass3268]

Alabama has issued a mask decree:

https://twitter.com/lyman_brian/status/1283432223824388098?s=20

[100% pro-life no matter what]

It actually might be helpful if we understood how much of the disagreement about strategies to tackle covid were the result of different underlying values, and how much were the result of different beliefs about facts related to the virus.

I’d be interested in posting an informal survey about people’s beliefs about facts related to the virus.  I understand that the true answers to many of the facts are not known, so their might be reasonable disagreement about them.  But I’d be curious to know the range of beliefs with respect to people’s best estimates.  I remember I posted a survey a few months back on the question of “What do you believe is the probability that you personally will be infected in the next year?” and the range of responses was completely all over the map.

Some questions I’d be interested in:
1.) What is the ratio of cases to actual infections in the US?
2.) What is the current IFR among infected people over 70 years old?
3.) What is the current IFR among infected people under 50 years old?
4.) What percentage of infected people will remain immune to reinfection six months later?
5.) When is the most likely time frame for a vaccine with at least 90% effectiveness to become available to the general public in the US?
6.) To what extent have treatments such as steroids, plasma, and remdesivir reduced the IFR of the virus over the past three months?
7.) What is the effective reduction in Rt solely from universal wearing of masks in public places?

What other questions are people interested in knowing people’s beliefs on?

1. 1:10
2. 3%
3. <0.1%
4. >99%
5.  December 2020
6. 25%
7. 15%

[Calthrina950]

7.) What is the effective reduction in Rt solely from universal wearing of masks in public places?

Very limited, because a mask is going to have very little effect in a place like a grocery store (where social distancing is generally being observed, and personal contacts are rare).  People really just don't swap saliva or cough onto one another at grocery stores, even prior to the pandemic.

I'm not sure how it will be for you when masks are made mandatory in Mississippi. Now that your neighbor of Alabama has done so (and Alabama had been a state which was initially opposed to mandatory masks), I wouldn't be surprised if Governor Reeves follows. 

[Hammy]

7.) What is the effective reduction in Rt solely from universal wearing of masks in public places?

Very limited, because a mask is going to have very little effect in a place like a grocery store (where social distancing is generally being observed, and personal contacts are rare).  People really just don't swap saliva or cough onto one another at grocery stores, even prior to the pandemic.

The virus is being spread through talking and breathing as well, not simply coughing, which is why it's spreading like it is. If everybody were to wear masks, they'd have >95% efficiency, and if everybody wore masks and social distanced, it would stop spreading.

But places like grocery stores allowing no masks and only having social distancing (which many people are ignoring anyway) is going to do absolutely nothing considering it's been confirmed that the virus is airborne and can spread through indoor ventilation systems.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 7/15 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

New - Substituting the Δ Change metric as of 7/13 on dates starting from 7/5:
ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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7/5: <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,982,928 (+47,158 | ΔW Change: ↑16.32% | Σ Increase: ↑1.61%)
• Deaths: 132,569 (+251 | ΔW Change: ↓11.93% | Σ Increase: ↑0.19%)

7/6: <M>

• Cases: 3,040,833 (+57,905 | ΔW Change: ↑29.47% | Σ Increase: ↑1.94%)
• Deaths: 132,979 (+410 | ΔW Change: ↑19.88% | Σ Increase: ↑0.31%)

7/7: <T>

• Cases: 3,097,084 (+56,251 | ΔW Change: ↑22.15% | Σ Increase: ↑1.85%)
• Deaths: 133,972 (+993 | ΔW Change: ↓26.06% | Σ Increase: ↑0.75%)

7/8: <W>

• Cases: 3,158,734 (+61,650 | ΔW Change: ↑18.33% | Σ Increase: ↑1.99%)
• Deaths: 134,854 (+882 | ΔW Change: ↑30.47% | Σ Increase: ↑0.66%)

7/9: <Þ>

• Cases: 3,219,999 (+61,265 | ΔW Change: ↑7.04% | Σ Increase: ↑1.94%)
• Deaths: 135,822 (+968 | ΔW Change: ↑40.90% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)

7/10: <F>

• Cases: 3,291,786 (+71,787 | ΔW Change: ↑34.44% | Σ Increase: ↑2.23%)
• Deaths: 136,671 (+849 | ΔW Change: ↑37.82% | Σ Increase: ↑0.63%)

7/11: <S>

• Cases: 3,355,646 (+63,860 | ΔW Change: ↑41.34% | Σ Increase: ↑1.94%)
• Deaths: 137,403 (+732 | ΔW Change: ↑245.28% | Σ Increase: ↑0.54%)

7/12: <Sunday>

• Cases: 3,413,995 (+58,349 | ΔW Change: ↑23.73% | Σ Increase: ↑1.74%)
• Deaths: 137,782 (+379 | ΔW Change: ↑51.00% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)

7/13: <M>

• Cases: 3,479,483 (+65,488 | ΔW Change: ↑13.10% | Σ Increase: ↑1.74%)
• Deaths: 138,247 (+465 | ΔW Change: ↑13.41% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)

7/14 (Yesterday): <T>

• Cases: 3,545,077 (+65,594 | ΔW Change: ↑16.61% | Σ Increase: ↑1.89%)
• Deaths: 139,143 (+896 | ΔW Change: ↓9.77% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)

7/15 (Today): <W>

• Cases: 3,616,747 (+71,670 | ΔW Change: ↑13.61% | Σ Increase: ↑2.02%)
• Deaths: 140,140 (+997 | ΔW Change: ↑16.25% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)

[Calthrina950]

As I predicted earlier today, Kroger's (which owns King Soopers) will be joining Walmart in requiring all customers to wear masks: https://krdo.com/news/2020/07/15/all-king-soopers-to-require-masks-starting-july-22/. This will take effect on July 22, or next Wednesday, so two days after Walmart. Also, as of today, Starbucks and Best Buy's have required their customers to wear masks as well. At this point, given my experiences at my job, I've been won over to the mandatory mask train, and I think that all Americans should now be required to wear masks when in public. The recent surge in cases is concerning, and it's clear that many people aren't going to take a basic precaution to protect themselves and others unless compelled to do so.

[libertpaulian]

Some humor in these troubled times...

https://twitter.com/LocalReformer/status/1283608114084765697