COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[jimrtex]

PA added 1,000+ new cases for the first time in over two months. Not good

https://twitter.com/6abc/status/1281642258362589184

One item that concerns me is that Lancaster County has around 200 more cases than Allegheny County (and around 190 more deaths) despite having less than half the latter's population.  

And Lancaster County's median age is two less than Allegheny's (39 vs. 41).

I suspect that visitors are bringing the virus to areas such as Lancaster County. On any given weekend (or during the week during the summer or when one can't work), visitors make a relatively large share of the population. If you are in Philadelphia or Baltimore or Washington and have felt imprisoned for months, you decide to head to the Pennsylvania Dutch Country for a respite, perhaps staying at a BnB. If you are renting out a few rooms in your house decorated with Amish crafts and serve a hearty breakfast, you are unlikely to insist on masks. If you are bicycling through the countryside you won't be wearing a mask, and won't be wearing a mask when you ride up to a vegetable stand, breathing a bit heavily, not recognizing that you have a fever rather than sweating from your exertion. Being used to processed foods, you don't realize that you can actually taste and smell fresh fruits and vegetables.

Innocent natives are being infected by strangers, and then spreading the virus throughout the community.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1281982874007134208

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1281982874007134208

It's always tragic to see loss of life, but he Darwined himself. I can't say that I feel sorry for him. This crap is exhausting. It's inexcusable to go and infect yourself deliberately.

[It’s so Joever]

How many cases can there be before it just runs it’s course?

Ask Bergamo, Italy.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

How many cases can there be before it just runs it’s course?

Realistic estimates are about 7% of the US population has been already infected or is infected now.

Herd immunity with no behavior changes probably requires about 70% immunity, so we would be about 1/10 of the way there. However, herd immunity combined with some behavior changes might be achievable at a lower % of the population infected (40%-50% or so?), but this would not be "back to normal."

The real problem with this discussion, however, is that we still do not know how long immunity lasts (or exactly how immune people who have been previously infected are, though there does seem to be some immunity). Immunity might last for, say, 6 months. Or 9 months. Or 1 year. Or alternatively, even if immunity lasts longer, an alternative strain that bypasses the immunity may evolve, as commonly happens with the cold/flu. If so, then the virus "running its course" would simply mean that people get infected, and a certain # get infected to stop/slow down spread. And then people get infected all over again.

And it would go on like that unless/until we get a vaccine. I do think it is likely we will get a vaccine, but it is not a sure thing. Not all viruses have vaccines. As one example, early in the AIDS epidemic there was lots of optimism about a vaccine... But there is still no vaccine... This is quite a different virus from HIV, but we should remember that the assumption that there will be a vaccine, or that there will be one soon, is just that - an assumption.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Isn't it a bit odd that the first wave mostly affected states with corrupt governments like New York while the current wave is mostly Southern? (Louisiana pulls the double-whammy of being both corrupt and southern!)

[Brittain33]

Isn't it a bit odd that the first wave mostly affected states with corrupt governments like New York while the current wave is mostly Southern? (Louisiana pulls the double-whammy of being both corrupt and southern!)

I wouldn't consider Massachusetts corrupt.

[Person Man]

Isn't it a bit odd that the first wave mostly affected states with corrupt governments like New York while the current wave is mostly Southern? (Louisiana pulls the double-whammy of being both corrupt and southern!)

That more describes Florida.

[Inmate Trump]

https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1281982874007134208

He is a victim of indoctrination by a President who continues to deny the gravity of the situation and who openly discourages all precautions to combat this virus.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Winning.

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1281521482091249664

Maybe this is why the Orange Clown commuted Roger Stone today.

Nah. Even if he were capable of thinking that strategically, there's much more important things from his perspective to bury in the news than some poll numbers.

[GP270watch]

Daily Florida numbers just dropped:

10,360 new cases today's report. 10,274 residents and 86 non-residents.

19.3% positive from 53,818 tests.

95 deaths. 421 Hospitalizations.

Median age 40.

Is that median age for deaths or new cases?

 

[It’s so Joever]

Daily Florida numbers just dropped:

10,360 new cases today's report. 10,274 residents and 86 non-residents.

19.3% positive from 53,818 tests.

95 deaths. 421 Hospitalizations.

Median age 40.

Is that median age for deaths or new cases?

 

God I hope it’s cases.
(Probably is)

[NHI]

https://twitter.com/jonlemire/status/1282065843900252167?s=21
-Amazing that it’s taken this long.

[GP270watch]

 It's completely inexcusable that Doctors and Nurses are dealing with PPE shortages this far into the pandemic.

 

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1282066014583304194

[Progressive Pessimist]

Trump is wearing a face mask, everyone! Today is the day he became President. Now he's going to take this crisis seriously and everything is going to be fine! His re-election is now imminent!

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/jonlemire/status/1282065843900252167?s=21
-Amazing that it’s taken this long.

Direct result of the Bolsonaro infection??

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/jonlemire/status/1282065843900252167?s=21
-Amazing that it’s taken this long.

Direct result of the Bolsonaro infection??

Maybe. It would make sense for Trump to only start caring when him in tropical flavor started to show vulnerability to the virus.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Why was there such a huge spike in testing yesterday?

[BudgieForce]

I think a few of you are overthinking it. Walter Reed probably requires visitors wear masks. It's probably as simple as that.

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/jonlemire/status/1282065843900252167?s=21
-Amazing that it’s taken this long.

My partner's theory is that it smears his orange make-up so he doesn't want to wear one.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/StevenTDennis/status/1282102115054354432

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 7/11 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/10-5/16 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/17-5/23 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/24-5/30 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/31-6/6 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 6/7-6/13 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 6/14-6/20 in this post>

6/21: <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,356,657 (+26,079 | Δ Change: ↓21.89% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
• Deaths: 122,247 (+267 | Δ Change: ↓53.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

6/22:

• Cases: 2,388,153 (+31,496 | Δ Change: ↑20.77% | Σ Increase: ↑1.34%)
• Deaths: 122,610 (+363 | Δ Change: ↑35.96% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

6/23:

• Cases: 2,424,168 (+36,015 | Δ Change: ↑14.35% | Σ Increase: ↑1.51%)
• Deaths: 123,473 (+863 | Δ Change: ↑137.74% | Σ Increase: ↑0.70%)
• Death toll inflated by older counts recently dumped by DE

6/24:

• Cases: 2,462,554 (+38,386 | Δ Change: ↑6.18% | Σ Increase: ↑1.58%)
• Deaths: 124,281 (+808 | Δ Change: ↓6.37% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)

6/25:

• Cases: 2,504,588 (+42,034 | Δ Change: ↑9.50% | Σ Increase: ↑1.71%)
• Deaths: 126,780 (+2,499 | Δ Change: ↑209.28% | Σ Increase: ↑2.01%)
• Death toll inflated by older counts recently dumped by NJ

6/26:

• Cases: 2,552,940 (+48,352 | Δ Change: ↑15.03% | Σ Increase: ↑1.93%)
• Deaths: 127,640 (+860 | Δ Change: ↓65.59% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)
• Death Δ Change affected by older counts recently dumped by NJ on 6/25

6/27:

• Cases: 2,596,537 (+43,597 | Δ Change: ↓9.83% | Σ Increase: ↑1.71%)
• Deaths: 128,152 (+512 | Δ Change: ↓40.47% | Σ Increase: ↑0.40%)

6/28: <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,637,077 (+40,540 | Δ Change: ↓7.01% | Σ Increase: ↑1.56%)
• Deaths: 128,437 (+285 | Δ Change: ↓44.34% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

6/29:

• Cases: 2,681,802 (+44,725 | Δ Change: ↑10.32% | Σ Increase: ↑1.70%)
• Deaths: 128,779 (+342 | Δ Change: ↑20.00% | Σ Increase: ↑0.27%)

6/30:

• Cases: 2,727,853 (+46,051 | Δ Change: ↑2.96% | Σ Increase: ↑1.72%)
• Deaths: 130,122 (+1,343 | Δ Change: ↑292.69% | Σ Increase: ↑1.04%)

7/1:

• Cases: 2,779,953 (+52,100 | Δ Change: ↑13.14% | Σ Increase: ↑1.91%)
• Deaths: 130,798 (+676 | Δ Change: ↓49.66% | Σ Increase: ↑0.52%)

7/2:

• Cases: 2,837,189 (+57,236 | Δ Change: ↑9.86% | Σ Increase: ↑2.06%)
• Deaths: 131,485 (+687 | Δ Change: ↑1.62% | Σ Increase: ↑0.53%)

7/3:

• Cases: 2,890,588 (+53,399 | Δ Change: ↓6.70% | Σ Increase: ↑1.88%)
• Deaths: 132,101 (+616 | Δ Change: ↓10.33% | Σ Increase: ↑0.47%)

7/4:

• Cases: 2,935,770 (+45,182 | Δ Change: ↓15.39% | Σ Increase: ↑1.56%)
• Deaths: 132,318 (+212 | Δ Change: ↓65.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.16%)

7/5: <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,982,928 (+47,158 | Δ Change: ↑4.37% | Σ Increase: ↑1.61%)
• Deaths: 132,569 (+251 | Δ Change: ↑18.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.19%)

7/6:

• Cases: 3,040,833 (+57,905 | Δ Change: ↑22.79% | Σ Increase: ↑1.94%)
• Deaths: 132,979 (+410 | Δ Change: ↑63.35% | Σ Increase: ↑0.31%)

7/7:

• Cases: 3,097,084 (+56,251 | Δ Change: ↓2.86% | Σ Increase: ↑1.85%)
• Deaths: 133,972 (+993 | Δ Change: ↑142.20% | Σ Increase: ↑0.75%)

7/8:

• Cases: 3,158,734 (+61,650 | Δ Change: ↑9.60% | Σ Increase: ↑1.99%)
• Deaths: 134,854 (+882 | Δ Change: ↓11.18% | Σ Increase: ↑0.66%)

7/9:

• Cases: 3,219,999 (+61,265 | Δ Change: ↓0.62% | Σ Increase: ↑1.94%)
• Deaths: 135,822 (+968 | Δ Change: ↑9.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)

7/10 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 3,291,786 (+71,787 | Δ Change: ↑17.17% | Σ Increase: ↑2.23%)
• Deaths: 136,671 (+849 | Δ Change: ↓12.29% | Σ Increase: ↑0.63%)

7/11 (Today):

• Cases: 3,355,646 (+63,860 | Δ Change: ↓11.04% | Σ Increase: ↑1.94%)
• Deaths: 137,403 (+732 | Δ Change: ↓12.29% | Σ Increase: ↑0.54%)

[Dr. Arch]

Same-day week-to-week growth is exploding in both new cases and deaths.

[It’s so Joever]

Let’s see Del Tachi/ExtremeRep try to deny this piece...
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.dw.com/en/coronavirus-brain-damage/a-54111054

Now do you people understand why this is a goddamn catastrophe?
Covid-19 survivors should be given reparations.